Papers by Shyam GouriSuresh
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Sep 1, 2016
This paper discusses the concept of path dependence in macrodynamics, and identifies practical di... more This paper discusses the concept of path dependence in macrodynamics, and identifies practical difficulties associated with building path-dependent macrodynamic models of the sort that Keynesians and Schumpeterians regard as necessary for the successful study of long-term growth and development. It is suggested that multi-agent systems (MAS) analysis can help address these difficulties, and therefore provides a useful tool for advancing path-dependent macrodynamic analysis. A concrete example is provided in the form of a simple but illustrative MAS model of path-dependent aggregate fluctuations.
We, You, I, and the Other
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2019
To capture humans’ moral sense game theorists have introduced the Kantian counterfactual The Nash... more To capture humans’ moral sense game theorists have introduced the Kantian counterfactual The Nash counterfactual considers the question: what would happen were I to change my behavior on the assumption that no one else does. By contrast, the Kantian counterfactual considers the question: what would happen were everyone to deviate from some behavior? In this paper, we present a model that endogenizes the decision to engage in this type of Kantian reasoning. Our model thus differs from recent approaches to Kantian reasoning in the literature that appeal to exogenous features to explains the level of moral behavior. We show that our model allows one to identify playing a Kantian strategy with playing what we call a ‘we-strategy’, an identification that is made plausible by the inclusion of psychic payoffs. We go on to prove that agents playing our model optimally achieve weakly Pareto socially optimal outcomes. We end by discussing a theorem that places a constraint on agents who achieve positive expected material payoffs and in so doing explains patterns of giving that can be found in nature.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013
We construct a multi-agent system (MAS) model of cyclical growth in which aggregate fluctuations ... more We construct a multi-agent system (MAS) model of cyclical growth in which aggregate fluctuations result from variations in activity at firm level. The latter, in turn, result from changes in the state of long run expectations (SOLE) or "animal spirits" and their effect on firms' investment behaviour. We focus on the impact of a common source of information-analogous to the mass media-on the amplitude of aggregate fluctuations. Our results suggest that the amplitude of growth cycles is reduced by extremes of attention or inattention to aggregate economic performance, but that this relationship is subject to complicated (and possibly complex) phase transitions.
Inter-Temporal Purchasing Power Parity
Open Economies Review, 2015
We adapt the Casselian version of purchasing power parity to a two-period framework. In this fram... more We adapt the Casselian version of purchasing power parity to a two-period framework. In this framework, we show that inter-temporal trade plays a role and can drive a wedge between the nominal exchange rate and relative prices. The size of trade flows, the real interest rate, and the constraint on trade balance over two periods establish the conditions under which Casselian and inter-temporal purchasing power parity hold. We test our model using consumer price indices and bilateral trade flows between the United States and the United Kingdom. We find evidence favorable to inter-temporal purchasing power parity.
Angels and Devils on Our Shoulders: A Framework for Modeling Moral Agency
Aggregate structural macroeconomic modelling (ASMM) is frequently criticized for being ad hoc and... more Aggregate structural macroeconomic modelling (ASMM) is frequently criticized for being ad hoc and justified (if at all) only as a pragmatic expedient. This paper argues instead that ASMM is consistent with the principles of well-established bodies of social theory. Appeal to these principles reveals that aggregate-level analysis of the type exemplified by ASMM is likely necessary and (in some circumstances) certainly sufficient for the successful prosecution of macroeconomic enquiry.
Inter-Temporal Purchasing Power Parity
Open Economies Review, 2015
We adapt the Casselian version of purchasing power parity to a two-period framework. In this fram... more We adapt the Casselian version of purchasing power parity to a two-period framework. In this framework, we show that inter-temporal trade plays a role and can drive a wedge between the nominal exchange rate and relative prices. The size of trade flows, the real interest rate, and the constraint on trade balance over two periods establish the conditions under which Casselian and inter-temporal purchasing power parity hold. We test our model using consumer price indices and bilateral trade flows between the United States and the United Kingdom. We find evidence favorable to inter-temporal purchasing power parity.
Firm performance, macroeconomic conditions, and “animal spirits” in a Post Keynesian model of aggregate fluctuations
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2015
Abstract: We construct a multiagent system (MAS) model of cyclical growth in which aggregate fluc... more Abstract: We construct a multiagent system (MAS) model of cyclical growth in which aggregate fluctuations result from variations in activity at the firm level. The latter, in turn, result from changes in “animal spirits” or the state of long-run expectations (SOLE) and their effect on firms’ investment behavior. We focus on the impact of publicly available information about macroeconomic conditions—analogous to the press releases of national statistical agencies—on changes in the SOLE and hence the amplitude of aggregate fluctuations. Our results suggest that the amplitude of fluctuations is reduced by extremes of attention or inattention to aggregate economic performance, but that this relationship is subject to complicated (and possibly complex) phase transitions exhibiting extreme sensitivity to initial conditions.
The Consequences of Social Pressures on Partisan Opinion Dynamics
Eastern Economic Journal, 2016
We simulate an agent-based model of opinion dynamics in a two-party framework to analyze party- a... more We simulate an agent-based model of opinion dynamics in a two-party framework to analyze party- and polity-wide consequences of social pressures that compel individuals to publicly conform to their party line. The model indicates that opinions polarize over time despite being initialized uniformly across most members of both parties. Further, the socially acceptable range of opinions in each party and the level of partisanship prevalent in the polity play an important role in determining the membership sizes of both parties, the median opinions of both parties and the polity, and the level of polarization within and across parties.
Uploads
Papers by Shyam GouriSuresh