In Japan, the cohort structure of foreign residents and its spatial distribution significantly ch... more In Japan, the cohort structure of foreign residents and its spatial distribution significantly change along with the acceptance of a specialized and technically skilled workforce. This study aims to analyze the transition of foreign residents’ characteristics with time series with statistical viewpoints, in order to clarify the policy building for foreign migrants by local government. A nonnegative matrix factorization model (NMF) is applied to the cohort data of foreign residents in 47 Japanese prefectures in 2010, 2015 and 2020. By applying NMF to the ratio by cohort shifting, the common basis of foreign residents among the prefectures and its structures are obtained. The results show the cohort transition for foreign migrants with infants or children were significantly different, especially between Tohoku and Kyusyu regions from 2010 to 2020. The elderly cohort also had a significant change in Tohoku region from 2015 to 2020. Since the regions highlighted in this analysis include...
Japan is becoming depopulated, with declining fertility rates and massive urban agglomeration due... more Japan is becoming depopulated, with declining fertility rates and massive urban agglomeration due to emigrations from rural areas, which results in rural–urban disparities. As demographic and social divisions between rural and urban areas increase, maintenance of infrastructure and social facilities becomes much more difficult. For social and demographic sustainability, accurate predictions of long-term population distributions are needed. This study improves the Cohort Component Analysis (CCA) into two aspects of “dependent structure” in the model system. The migration sub-model is expanded to include related structures between available job opportunities and the available workforce in each region, which are specified using the spatial autoregressive model. The advantage of the improved CCA to provides rational future projections by considering the longitudinal changes in the spatial distribution of the workforce. The simulation of the proposed model gives an alternative long-term ...
In Japan, the cohort structure of foreign residents and its spatial distribution significantly ch... more In Japan, the cohort structure of foreign residents and its spatial distribution significantly change along with the acceptance of a specialized and technically skilled workforce. This study aims to analyze the transition of foreign residents’ characteristics with time series with statistical viewpoints, in order to clarify the policy building for foreign migrants by local government. A nonnegative matrix factorization model (NMF) is applied to the cohort data of foreign residents in 47 Japanese prefectures in 2010, 2015 and 2020. By applying NMF to the ratio by cohort shifting, the common basis of foreign residents among the prefectures and its structures are obtained. The results show the cohort transition for foreign migrants with infants or children were significantly different, especially between Tohoku and Kyusyu regions from 2010 to 2020. The elderly cohort also had a significant change in Tohoku region from 2015 to 2020. Since the regions highlighted in this analysis include...
Japan is becoming depopulated, with declining fertility rates and massive urban agglomeration due... more Japan is becoming depopulated, with declining fertility rates and massive urban agglomeration due to emigrations from rural areas, which results in rural–urban disparities. As demographic and social divisions between rural and urban areas increase, maintenance of infrastructure and social facilities becomes much more difficult. For social and demographic sustainability, accurate predictions of long-term population distributions are needed. This study improves the Cohort Component Analysis (CCA) into two aspects of “dependent structure” in the model system. The migration sub-model is expanded to include related structures between available job opportunities and the available workforce in each region, which are specified using the spatial autoregressive model. The advantage of the improved CCA to provides rational future projections by considering the longitudinal changes in the spatial distribution of the workforce. The simulation of the proposed model gives an alternative long-term ...
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Papers by Sebal Oo