Validating agent-based models is challenging due to the emergent properties of complex systems. D... more Validating agent-based models is challenging due to the emergent properties of complex systems. Defining system-level patterns and determining which underlying processes created them is difficult because of the irreducibility of these systems. This paper describes methods to empirically calibrate and validate models, specifically using laboratory experiments with human subjects. Using experimental techniques, well-defined decision situations can be reproduced, and behaviours of human participants revealed. The outcomes of the experiment can be used to calibrate an agent model, offering a way to capture heuristics of decision making and reveal strategies that humans use in dealing with complex situations. This presents an alternative to representing agents as fully informed and rational decision makers, yet offering a defensible alternative that is grounded in empirical data. An example of using this technique is presented for agricultural agents acting in a cap and trade system for water quality management. Human participants are immersed in a running agent model where they control the decisions of one agent. The data revealed by the participants can then be used to calibrate artificial agents. The objective of this paper is to contribute to improved calibration and validation through participatory modelling, and a technique of combining agent-based models with experimental economics is presented as an empirically grounded method of defining agent behaviours.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2012
Human history has traditionally been cast in terms of the rise and fall of great civilizations, w... more Human history has traditionally been cast in terms of the rise and fall of great civilizations, wars, and specific human achievements. This history leaves out the important ecological and climate context which shaped and mediated these events. The capability to integrate human history with the natural history of the earth now exists. The goal of IHOPE is to produce an integrated history of the climate, atmospheric chemistry and composition, material and water cycles, ecosystem distribution, species extinctions, land use systems, human settlement patterns, technological changes, patterns of disease, patterns of language and institutions, wars and alliances, and other variables on earth from several new and existing data sources that would provide a much richer picture of how (and why) the planet has changed in historical times. This integrated history will serve as an improved basis for studies from various perspectives of the earth's history and possible futures. It will also be used as a core data set to test integrated models of humans in natural systems at multiple time and space scales, from regional to global.
Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and model... more Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.
Agent based models (ABM) and cellular automata (CA) micro-scale modeling have found abundant appl... more Agent based models (ABM) and cellular automata (CA) micro-scale modeling have found abundant application in the area of urban land use and transport planning. These platforms enable a rich spatial representation of residential behavior. We present an urban ABM that deliberately emphasizes a sparse set of rules that influence agents’ settlement decisions which interact with detailed spatial data on the geography and climate of a city region. Preliminary results are compared with historical data (1851 to 2001) of the urban growth of the City of Melbourne, the major urbanized area of the State of Victoria, Australia. We discuss potential extensions to the model and its value as an exploratory device for different transport and climate change scenarios.
Water availability in outback Australia is defined by the occurrence of large rainfall events, an... more Water availability in outback Australia is defined by the occurrence of large rainfall events, and changes often from a situation of scarcity to temporary abundance. Informal institutions are often able to translate such dynamics into sustainable water-use rules. Policy interventions are mainly focused on changing access rules to avoid over-use or inefficiencies. Ripple effects of such formal institutional changes can
Agent based modelling (ABM) environments are becoming increasingly popular for investigating the ... more Agent based modelling (ABM) environments are becoming increasingly popular for investigating the effects of land use change. The ABM environment enables models to be developed that simulate biophysical, economic and social processes at different spatial and temporal scales. The smallest spatial area modelled here is the paddock at a daily temporal resolution, therefore enabling daily interaction of the biophysical and social processes at the paddock scale. Shown here are the steps towards the development of the large scale catchment model that captures the finer spatial and temporal paddock scale processes. These steps involve deciding on the catchment area that captures the land use change to be investigated. Dividing the catchment into subcatchments and defining an appropriate number of contour segments depending on the area of the paddocks to be modelled. Paddock runoff and groundwater flow is modelled using a water balance model. Within each contour segment, runoff is summed and groundwater flow is calculated in a representative radial crosssection using a groundwater model. Contours provide an improvement to catchment modelling as the number of contours generated could also depend on the availability of model parameter data therefore simplifying the reuse of the model within other catchments.
Water use in a tropical savannas region of the Northern Territory, Australia is guided and govern... more Water use in a tropical savannas region of the Northern Territory, Australia is guided and governed by the physical conditions of the aquifer and river system, the attributes of the community, and the rules embedded in legislation and in social norms. The current policy direction throughout Australia is driven by the National Water Initiative, one aspect of which is movement towards the use of water markets. This represents a change in the rules governing water use, and may have a range of impacts in the region. This paper describes a research project that evaluates how changes in the rules that guide and govern water use in the region could impact on social and environmental outcomes. The project is based around the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, and makes use of agent-based modelling to model the responses of outcome variables to changes in the rules by which water is allocated. The agent-based model enabled modelling of future scenarios to support and inform different groups' evaluation of the impacts, by revealing the key interactions between social, economic, political and ecological systems that might result from a water market.
This paper analyses one case study on water access in outback Australia and translates field work... more This paper analyses one case study on water access in outback Australia and translates field work results into an agent-based model. The agent-based model is calibrated based on data from experiments conducted with actual farmers from the case study region. In order to ...
This paper outlines the application of an agent- based model (ABM) within the context of urban sy... more This paper outlines the application of an agent- based model (ABM) within the context of urban systems. The model is developed with the goal of exploring residential market dynamics under various scenarios, and addresses two issues of concern to Australian urban systems, namely interest rates and population growth. Simulated agents are faced with the selection of a residence, and use
Validating agent-based models is challenging due to the emergent properties of complex systems. D... more Validating agent-based models is challenging due to the emergent properties of complex systems. Defining system-level patterns and determining which underlying processes created them is difficult because of the irreducibility of these systems. This paper describes methods to empirically calibrate and validate models, specifically using laboratory experiments with human subjects. Using experimental techniques, well-defined decision situations can be reproduced, and behaviours of human participants revealed. The outcomes of the experiment can be used to calibrate an agent model, offering a way to capture heuristics of decision making and reveal strategies that humans use in dealing with complex situations. This presents an alternative to representing agents as fully informed and rational decision makers, yet offering a defensible alternative that is grounded in empirical data. An example of using this technique is presented for agricultural agents acting in a cap and trade system for water quality management. Human participants are immersed in a running agent model where they control the decisions of one agent. The data revealed by the participants can then be used to calibrate artificial agents. The objective of this paper is to contribute to improved calibration and validation through participatory modelling, and a technique of combining agent-based models with experimental economics is presented as an empirically grounded method of defining agent behaviours.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2012
Human history has traditionally been cast in terms of the rise and fall of great civilizations, w... more Human history has traditionally been cast in terms of the rise and fall of great civilizations, wars, and specific human achievements. This history leaves out the important ecological and climate context which shaped and mediated these events. The capability to integrate human history with the natural history of the earth now exists. The goal of IHOPE is to produce an integrated history of the climate, atmospheric chemistry and composition, material and water cycles, ecosystem distribution, species extinctions, land use systems, human settlement patterns, technological changes, patterns of disease, patterns of language and institutions, wars and alliances, and other variables on earth from several new and existing data sources that would provide a much richer picture of how (and why) the planet has changed in historical times. This integrated history will serve as an improved basis for studies from various perspectives of the earth's history and possible futures. It will also be used as a core data set to test integrated models of humans in natural systems at multiple time and space scales, from regional to global.
Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and model... more Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.
Agent based models (ABM) and cellular automata (CA) micro-scale modeling have found abundant appl... more Agent based models (ABM) and cellular automata (CA) micro-scale modeling have found abundant application in the area of urban land use and transport planning. These platforms enable a rich spatial representation of residential behavior. We present an urban ABM that deliberately emphasizes a sparse set of rules that influence agents’ settlement decisions which interact with detailed spatial data on the geography and climate of a city region. Preliminary results are compared with historical data (1851 to 2001) of the urban growth of the City of Melbourne, the major urbanized area of the State of Victoria, Australia. We discuss potential extensions to the model and its value as an exploratory device for different transport and climate change scenarios.
Water availability in outback Australia is defined by the occurrence of large rainfall events, an... more Water availability in outback Australia is defined by the occurrence of large rainfall events, and changes often from a situation of scarcity to temporary abundance. Informal institutions are often able to translate such dynamics into sustainable water-use rules. Policy interventions are mainly focused on changing access rules to avoid over-use or inefficiencies. Ripple effects of such formal institutional changes can
Agent based modelling (ABM) environments are becoming increasingly popular for investigating the ... more Agent based modelling (ABM) environments are becoming increasingly popular for investigating the effects of land use change. The ABM environment enables models to be developed that simulate biophysical, economic and social processes at different spatial and temporal scales. The smallest spatial area modelled here is the paddock at a daily temporal resolution, therefore enabling daily interaction of the biophysical and social processes at the paddock scale. Shown here are the steps towards the development of the large scale catchment model that captures the finer spatial and temporal paddock scale processes. These steps involve deciding on the catchment area that captures the land use change to be investigated. Dividing the catchment into subcatchments and defining an appropriate number of contour segments depending on the area of the paddocks to be modelled. Paddock runoff and groundwater flow is modelled using a water balance model. Within each contour segment, runoff is summed and groundwater flow is calculated in a representative radial crosssection using a groundwater model. Contours provide an improvement to catchment modelling as the number of contours generated could also depend on the availability of model parameter data therefore simplifying the reuse of the model within other catchments.
Water use in a tropical savannas region of the Northern Territory, Australia is guided and govern... more Water use in a tropical savannas region of the Northern Territory, Australia is guided and governed by the physical conditions of the aquifer and river system, the attributes of the community, and the rules embedded in legislation and in social norms. The current policy direction throughout Australia is driven by the National Water Initiative, one aspect of which is movement towards the use of water markets. This represents a change in the rules governing water use, and may have a range of impacts in the region. This paper describes a research project that evaluates how changes in the rules that guide and govern water use in the region could impact on social and environmental outcomes. The project is based around the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, and makes use of agent-based modelling to model the responses of outcome variables to changes in the rules by which water is allocated. The agent-based model enabled modelling of future scenarios to support and inform different groups' evaluation of the impacts, by revealing the key interactions between social, economic, political and ecological systems that might result from a water market.
This paper analyses one case study on water access in outback Australia and translates field work... more This paper analyses one case study on water access in outback Australia and translates field work results into an agent-based model. The agent-based model is calibrated based on data from experiments conducted with actual farmers from the case study region. In order to ...
This paper outlines the application of an agent- based model (ABM) within the context of urban sy... more This paper outlines the application of an agent- based model (ABM) within the context of urban systems. The model is developed with the goal of exploring residential market dynamics under various scenarios, and addresses two issues of concern to Australian urban systems, namely interest rates and population growth. Simulated agents are faced with the selection of a residence, and use
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Papers by Scott Heckbert