The integrated dynamic ecosystem models SAFE and ForSAFEVEG were used to estimate critical loads ... more The integrated dynamic ecosystem models SAFE and ForSAFEVEG were used to estimate critical loads for nitrogen using different chemical and biological criteria, and attempting to account for possible effects of climate change. The study is based on a model application on a set of 640 sites earlier used for critical loads assessments in Sweden, focusing on the ecological effect of nitrogen pollution. To assess critical loads for nitrogen to ecosystems, two criteria were used for the critical loads estimates: 1: N leaching, and 2: changes in plant community composition, and assessed using the models mentioned. We show that the model gives results consistent with earlier results using other methods such as the simple mass balance method. We show that the new model system is operational over the whole of the Swedish territory and may be used for policy development and policy outcome assessments. The critical loads are estimated both under the assumption of no change in climate from today’s level and under the assumption that the steady state of climate will be comparable to the predicted levels of 2100 for temperature and precipitation under the IPCC-SRES A2 scenario (Formerly the “worst case” scenario, after 2011, the “medium case” scenario.) (Less)
Base cation release rates from mineral dissolution was calculated for a boreal forested hillslo... more Base cation release rates from mineral dissolution was calculated for a boreal forested hillslope. Different models for mineral dissolution rates distributed base cation release differently over the hillslope. The organic-rich near-stream zone contributed significantly to the total base cation release. The unsaturated and the saturated zones contributed approximately equally to base cation release. Mass balance calculations indicate that the calculated release of Na + and K + was overestimated.
'Biodiversity' , a contraction of 'biological diversity' , fi rst appeared in print only in 1986 ... more 'Biodiversity' , a contraction of 'biological diversity' , fi rst appeared in print only in 1986 . Since then, the term has achieved global recognition, with 2010 being designated by the United Nations as the International Year of Biodiversity (CBD, 2010 ). At its simplest, biodiversity is 'the variety of life, in all its many manifestations' . Th is variety includes the diversity of genes, populations, species, communities and ecosystems . Th e 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity states: Biological diversity means the variability among living organisms from all sources including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems . (CBD, 1992
The integrated character of the sustainable development goals in Agenda 2030, as well as research... more The integrated character of the sustainable development goals in Agenda 2030, as well as research in environmental security, flag that sustainable peace requires sustainable and conflict-sensitive natural resource use. The precise relationship between the risk for violent conflict and natural resources remains contested because of the interplay with socio-economic variables. This paper aims to improve the understanding of natural resources' role in the risk of violent conflicts by accounting for complex interactions with socio-economic conditions. Conflict data was analysed with machine learning techniques, which can account for complex patterns, such as variable interactions. More commonly used logistic regression models are compared with neural network models and random forest models. The results indicate that a country's natural resource features are important predictors of its risk for violent conflict and that they interact with socio-economic conditions. Based on these empirical results and the existing literature, we interpret that natural resources can be root causes of violent intrastate conflict, and that signals from natural resources leading to conflict risk are reflected in and influenced by interacting socio-economic conditions. More specifically, the results show that variables such as access to water and food security are important predictors of conflict, while resource rents and oil and ore exports are relatively less important than other natural resource variables, contrasting what prior research has suggested. Given the potential of natural resource features to act as an early warning for violent conflict, we argue that natural resources should be included in conflict risk models for conflict prevention.
The study presents a hydrology concept developed to include lateral water flow in the biogeochemi... more The study presents a hydrology concept developed to include lateral water flow in the biogeochemical model ForSAFE. The hydrology concept was evaluated against data collected at Svartberget in the Vindeln Research Forest in Northern Sweden. The results show that the new concept allows simulation of a saturated and an unsaturated zone in the soil as well as water flow that reaches the stream comparable to measurements. The most relevant differences compared to streamflow measurements are that the model simulates a higher base flow in winter and lower flow peaks after snowmelt. These differences are mainly caused by the assumptions made to regulate the percolation at the bottom of the simulated soil columns. The capability for simulating lateral flows and a saturated zone in ForSAFE can greatly improve the simulation of chemical exchange in the soil and export of elements from the soil to watercourses. Such a model can help improve the understanding of how environmental changes in the forest landscape will influence chemical loads to surface waters.
In a future warmer climate, extremely dry, warm summers might become more common. In Scandinavia,... more In a future warmer climate, extremely dry, warm summers might become more common. In Scandinavia, the extreme summer of 2018 was such an event. Soil weathering is affected by temperature and precipitation, and climate change as well as droughts can therefore affect soil chemistry and plant nutrition. In this study, climate change effects on weathering were studied on seven forest sites across widely different climate zones in Sweden, using the dynamical model ForSAFE. Two climate scenarios were run, one climate change base scenario and one drought scenario. The model results show a large geographical variation of weathering rates for the sites. There is, however, no geographical gradient, despite the strong dependence of temperature on weathering, as also soil texture and mineralogy have strong effects on weathering. There is a pronounced seasonal dynamic, with much lower weathering rates during winters than during summers, and with more variable summer weathering rates depending on more variable soil moisture and temperature. According to the climate change base scenario, the weathering rates will increase by 5-17 % per degree of warming. The relative increase is largest in the two southeastern sites, with low total weathering rates caused by relatively coarse soils and often dry summers. Changes in seasonal dynamics due to climate change differ between regions. At sites in southern Sweden, future weathering increase occurs throughout the year, though generally most in spring and summer. In the north the increase in weathering during winters is almost negligible, even though the temperature increase during winter is high, as the winter temperatures still will mostly be below zero. The drought scenario has the strongest effect in southern Sweden and here weathering can temporally become as low as winter weathering during drought summers. Soil texture also has an effect on how fast the weathering decrease during drought occurs, as well as how fast the soil rewets and resume normal weathering rates after the drought, where coarse soils respond quicker. Yearly weathering during the drought years in the most affected site is only 78 % of the weathering of the base scenario. In the north, the soils do not dry out as much despite the low precipitation, and in the northernmost site weathering is not much affected. The study shows that it is crucial to take seasonal climate variations and soil texture into account when assessing the effects of a changed climate on weathering rates and plant nutrient availability.
Foreword from the COST Action FP0903 COST-the acronym for European Cooperation in Science and Tec... more Foreword from the COST Action FP0903 COST-the acronym for European Cooperation in Science and Technology-is the oldest and widest European intergovernmental network for cooperation in research (http://www.cost. eu). Established by the Ministerial Conference in 1971, COST is presently used by the scientific communities of 36 European countries to cooperate in common research projects supported by national funds. The funds provided by COST support cooperation networks, organized as COST Actions. Action FP0903 "Climate Change and Forest Mitigation and Adaptation in a Polluted Environment (MAFor)" (http://cost-fp0903.ipp.cnr.it/) was established in 2009 and created a platform of experts from different fields, with the following main objectives: 1) to increase understanding of state and potential of forest mitigation and adaptation to climate change in a polluted environment, and 2) to reconcile process-oriented research, long-term monitoring and applied modelling at comprehensive forest research sites, for which the concept of "Supersites" (comprehensive forest research sites) is being developed. In particular, MAFor aims at translating the existing European knowledge on climate and air pollution dynamics into impacts on forests, with focus on the carbon, ozone, nitrogen and water budgets. Networking the research, monitoring and modelling communities working with air pollution and climate change at forest sites is a key objective of this Action. This is why the Action is very active in communication and is glad to collaborate in the scientific organisation of this major event in Kaunas. This is the first time that experts from diverse networks and projects (IUFRO Research Group 7.01.00 "Impacts of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems"; North American Air Pollution Workshop; ENVeurope Project "Environmental quality and pressures assessment across Europe: the LTER network as an integrated and shared system for ecosystem monitoring"; ICP Integrated Monitoring; and the COST Action FP0903) have the opportunity to meet and discuss the challenges forests are facing due to the interaction of air pollution and climate change. We are really grateful to the local organisers prof. Algirdas Augustaitis and Aleksandras Stulginkis University for welcoming us in Lithuania. We would like to thank all the colleagues who have been working to the organization of the conference, in particular Andrzej Bytnerowicz. A special mention is to Ingrida Augustaitiene, whose hard work, communication skills and continuous support have been instrumental to the success of this event. On behalf of Action FP0903, I wish all the speakers and attendees a fruitful conference.
The high levels of atmospheric sulfate and nitrogen deposition due to human activities have had a... more The high levels of atmospheric sulfate and nitrogen deposition due to human activities have had a visible impact on forest ecosystems in Sweden. Although these emissions are already being reduced as a result of the introduction of transboundary air pollution protocols, the recovery of forest ecosystems may take a long time. This study describes the development of 16 forest ecosystems in Sweden during and after the emissions peaks. It is found that most of the sites are recovering from the acidification effects, but that the recovery process is very slow. The recovery is found to be slower in southern sites with richer soil than in northern sites. This is probably due to the higher buffering capacity of the southern soil.
The integrated dynamic ecosystem models SAFE and ForSAFEVEG were used to estimate critical loads ... more The integrated dynamic ecosystem models SAFE and ForSAFEVEG were used to estimate critical loads for nitrogen using different chemical and biological criteria, and attempting to account for possible effects of climate change. The study is based on a model application on a set of 640 sites earlier used for critical loads assessments in Sweden, focusing on the ecological effect of nitrogen pollution. To assess critical loads for nitrogen to ecosystems, two criteria were used for the critical loads estimates: 1: N leaching, and 2: changes in plant community composition, and assessed using the models mentioned. We show that the model gives results consistent with earlier results using other methods such as the simple mass balance method. We show that the new model system is operational over the whole of the Swedish territory and may be used for policy development and policy outcome assessments. The critical loads are estimated both under the assumption of no change in climate from today’s level and under the assumption that the steady state of climate will be comparable to the predicted levels of 2100 for temperature and precipitation under the IPCC-SRES A2 scenario (Formerly the “worst case” scenario, after 2011, the “medium case” scenario.) (Less)
Base cation release rates from mineral dissolution was calculated for a boreal forested hillslo... more Base cation release rates from mineral dissolution was calculated for a boreal forested hillslope. Different models for mineral dissolution rates distributed base cation release differently over the hillslope. The organic-rich near-stream zone contributed significantly to the total base cation release. The unsaturated and the saturated zones contributed approximately equally to base cation release. Mass balance calculations indicate that the calculated release of Na + and K + was overestimated.
'Biodiversity' , a contraction of 'biological diversity' , fi rst appeared in print only in 1986 ... more 'Biodiversity' , a contraction of 'biological diversity' , fi rst appeared in print only in 1986 . Since then, the term has achieved global recognition, with 2010 being designated by the United Nations as the International Year of Biodiversity (CBD, 2010 ). At its simplest, biodiversity is 'the variety of life, in all its many manifestations' . Th is variety includes the diversity of genes, populations, species, communities and ecosystems . Th e 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity states: Biological diversity means the variability among living organisms from all sources including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems . (CBD, 1992
The integrated character of the sustainable development goals in Agenda 2030, as well as research... more The integrated character of the sustainable development goals in Agenda 2030, as well as research in environmental security, flag that sustainable peace requires sustainable and conflict-sensitive natural resource use. The precise relationship between the risk for violent conflict and natural resources remains contested because of the interplay with socio-economic variables. This paper aims to improve the understanding of natural resources' role in the risk of violent conflicts by accounting for complex interactions with socio-economic conditions. Conflict data was analysed with machine learning techniques, which can account for complex patterns, such as variable interactions. More commonly used logistic regression models are compared with neural network models and random forest models. The results indicate that a country's natural resource features are important predictors of its risk for violent conflict and that they interact with socio-economic conditions. Based on these empirical results and the existing literature, we interpret that natural resources can be root causes of violent intrastate conflict, and that signals from natural resources leading to conflict risk are reflected in and influenced by interacting socio-economic conditions. More specifically, the results show that variables such as access to water and food security are important predictors of conflict, while resource rents and oil and ore exports are relatively less important than other natural resource variables, contrasting what prior research has suggested. Given the potential of natural resource features to act as an early warning for violent conflict, we argue that natural resources should be included in conflict risk models for conflict prevention.
The study presents a hydrology concept developed to include lateral water flow in the biogeochemi... more The study presents a hydrology concept developed to include lateral water flow in the biogeochemical model ForSAFE. The hydrology concept was evaluated against data collected at Svartberget in the Vindeln Research Forest in Northern Sweden. The results show that the new concept allows simulation of a saturated and an unsaturated zone in the soil as well as water flow that reaches the stream comparable to measurements. The most relevant differences compared to streamflow measurements are that the model simulates a higher base flow in winter and lower flow peaks after snowmelt. These differences are mainly caused by the assumptions made to regulate the percolation at the bottom of the simulated soil columns. The capability for simulating lateral flows and a saturated zone in ForSAFE can greatly improve the simulation of chemical exchange in the soil and export of elements from the soil to watercourses. Such a model can help improve the understanding of how environmental changes in the forest landscape will influence chemical loads to surface waters.
In a future warmer climate, extremely dry, warm summers might become more common. In Scandinavia,... more In a future warmer climate, extremely dry, warm summers might become more common. In Scandinavia, the extreme summer of 2018 was such an event. Soil weathering is affected by temperature and precipitation, and climate change as well as droughts can therefore affect soil chemistry and plant nutrition. In this study, climate change effects on weathering were studied on seven forest sites across widely different climate zones in Sweden, using the dynamical model ForSAFE. Two climate scenarios were run, one climate change base scenario and one drought scenario. The model results show a large geographical variation of weathering rates for the sites. There is, however, no geographical gradient, despite the strong dependence of temperature on weathering, as also soil texture and mineralogy have strong effects on weathering. There is a pronounced seasonal dynamic, with much lower weathering rates during winters than during summers, and with more variable summer weathering rates depending on more variable soil moisture and temperature. According to the climate change base scenario, the weathering rates will increase by 5-17 % per degree of warming. The relative increase is largest in the two southeastern sites, with low total weathering rates caused by relatively coarse soils and often dry summers. Changes in seasonal dynamics due to climate change differ between regions. At sites in southern Sweden, future weathering increase occurs throughout the year, though generally most in spring and summer. In the north the increase in weathering during winters is almost negligible, even though the temperature increase during winter is high, as the winter temperatures still will mostly be below zero. The drought scenario has the strongest effect in southern Sweden and here weathering can temporally become as low as winter weathering during drought summers. Soil texture also has an effect on how fast the weathering decrease during drought occurs, as well as how fast the soil rewets and resume normal weathering rates after the drought, where coarse soils respond quicker. Yearly weathering during the drought years in the most affected site is only 78 % of the weathering of the base scenario. In the north, the soils do not dry out as much despite the low precipitation, and in the northernmost site weathering is not much affected. The study shows that it is crucial to take seasonal climate variations and soil texture into account when assessing the effects of a changed climate on weathering rates and plant nutrient availability.
Foreword from the COST Action FP0903 COST-the acronym for European Cooperation in Science and Tec... more Foreword from the COST Action FP0903 COST-the acronym for European Cooperation in Science and Technology-is the oldest and widest European intergovernmental network for cooperation in research (http://www.cost. eu). Established by the Ministerial Conference in 1971, COST is presently used by the scientific communities of 36 European countries to cooperate in common research projects supported by national funds. The funds provided by COST support cooperation networks, organized as COST Actions. Action FP0903 "Climate Change and Forest Mitigation and Adaptation in a Polluted Environment (MAFor)" (http://cost-fp0903.ipp.cnr.it/) was established in 2009 and created a platform of experts from different fields, with the following main objectives: 1) to increase understanding of state and potential of forest mitigation and adaptation to climate change in a polluted environment, and 2) to reconcile process-oriented research, long-term monitoring and applied modelling at comprehensive forest research sites, for which the concept of "Supersites" (comprehensive forest research sites) is being developed. In particular, MAFor aims at translating the existing European knowledge on climate and air pollution dynamics into impacts on forests, with focus on the carbon, ozone, nitrogen and water budgets. Networking the research, monitoring and modelling communities working with air pollution and climate change at forest sites is a key objective of this Action. This is why the Action is very active in communication and is glad to collaborate in the scientific organisation of this major event in Kaunas. This is the first time that experts from diverse networks and projects (IUFRO Research Group 7.01.00 "Impacts of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems"; North American Air Pollution Workshop; ENVeurope Project "Environmental quality and pressures assessment across Europe: the LTER network as an integrated and shared system for ecosystem monitoring"; ICP Integrated Monitoring; and the COST Action FP0903) have the opportunity to meet and discuss the challenges forests are facing due to the interaction of air pollution and climate change. We are really grateful to the local organisers prof. Algirdas Augustaitis and Aleksandras Stulginkis University for welcoming us in Lithuania. We would like to thank all the colleagues who have been working to the organization of the conference, in particular Andrzej Bytnerowicz. A special mention is to Ingrida Augustaitiene, whose hard work, communication skills and continuous support have been instrumental to the success of this event. On behalf of Action FP0903, I wish all the speakers and attendees a fruitful conference.
The high levels of atmospheric sulfate and nitrogen deposition due to human activities have had a... more The high levels of atmospheric sulfate and nitrogen deposition due to human activities have had a visible impact on forest ecosystems in Sweden. Although these emissions are already being reduced as a result of the introduction of transboundary air pollution protocols, the recovery of forest ecosystems may take a long time. This study describes the development of 16 forest ecosystems in Sweden during and after the emissions peaks. It is found that most of the sites are recovering from the acidification effects, but that the recovery process is very slow. The recovery is found to be slower in southern sites with richer soil than in northern sites. This is probably due to the higher buffering capacity of the southern soil.
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