Papers by Schehrazad Selmane
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Jun 16, 2014
We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian populat... more We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Jun 16, 2014
We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian populat... more We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Jun 16, 2014
We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian populat... more We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.
Journal of Research in Health Sciences
Background: This study was designed to find the best statistical approach to scorpion sting predi... more Background: This study was designed to find the best statistical approach to scorpion sting predictions. Study Design: A retrospective study. Methods: Multiple regression, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), neural network autoregressive (NNAR), and hybrid SARIMA-NNAR models were developed to predict monthly scorpion sting cases in El Oued province. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to quantitatively compare different models. Results: In general, 96909 scorpion stings were recorded in El Oued province from 2005-2020. The incidence rate experienced a gradual decrease until 2012 and since then slight fluctuations have been noted. Scorpion stings occurred throughout the year with peaks in September followed by July and August and troughs in December and January. Sting cases were not evenly distributed across demographic groups; the most affected age group was 15-49 years, and males w...
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Jun 16, 2014
We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian populat... more We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.
Tropical biomedicine, 2017
The present cross-sectional study aimed to highlight some epidemiological and clinical features o... more The present cross-sectional study aimed to highlight some epidemiological and clinical features of scorpion stings in Sidi Okba, Algeria. The 2016 designed questionnaires for stung patients admitted between January 2014 and December 2015 in the different care units affiliated to public health care establishment Sidi Okba were reviewed and analysed. The analysis revealed that scorpion stings occur mainly in rural areas (66.1%), outside dwellings (54.2%), are observed round the clock throughout the year with the highest seasonal incidence in summer (43.2%). There were approximately 11 stings per year per 1000 inhabitants. Males were more affected than females with 62.5% of recorded stings. Almost half of the victims were aged between 20 and 40 years old and the most prone human body areas to stings were the upper and lower limbs (93.7%). The majority of cases (99%) were classified as mild and systemic toxicity was observed in 19 cases including two deaths. An efficient management of s...
Journal of Research in Health Sciences
Background: Brucellosis runs rampant endemically with sporadic outbreaks in Algeria. The present ... more Background: Brucellosis runs rampant endemically with sporadic outbreaks in Algeria. The present study aimed to provide insights into the epidemiology of brucellosis and compare the performance of some prediction models using surveillance data from Tebessa province, Algeria. Study Design: A retrospective study. Methods: Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), neural network autoregressive (NNAR), and hybrid SARIMA-NNAR models were developed to predict monthly brucellosis notifications. The prediction performance of these models was compared using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results: Overall, 13670 human brucellosis cases were notified in Tebessa province from 2000-2020 with a male-to-female ratio of 1.3. The most affected age group was 15-44 years (56.2%). The cases were reported throughout the year with manifest seasonality. The annual notification rate ranged from 30.9 (2013) to 246.7 (200...
Informatica, 2021
Support Vector Regression (SVR) is a new approach in machine learning for time series prediction ... more Support Vector Regression (SVR) is a new approach in machine learning for time series prediction showing good performance. A big challenge for achieving optimal accuracy is the choice of appropriate parameters. In this paper, a Novel Enhanced Differential Evolution (NEDE) algorithm is proposed to calculate the optimal SVR parameters, and the combination approach (NEDE-SVR) was applied to predict the incidences of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) diseases. The NEDE-SVR based prediction model incorporates the climate factors as predictor variables, determined by analyzing their time lags related to the ZCL incidence. Conducted experiments have shown that NEDE-SVR exhibits good competitive performance using past diseases and climate data to predict the future cases of the ZCL disease. Accurate and timely ZCL disease predictions could aid structure health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts. Povzetek: Razvita je nova verzija metode podpornih vektorjev za prepoznavanje kožne bolezni lišmanioze.
Scorpionism represents a serious public health problem in Algeria. More than 68% of the national ... more Scorpionism represents a serious public health problem in Algeria. More than 68% of the national population is at risk of scorpion stings. M'Sila ranks among the endemic provinces of the country and records every year a high incidence of scorpion stings. A survey on epidemiological characteristics of scorpion stings was established. Using the monthly recorded scorpion sting data for the period 2001-2010 for M'Sila province, the linkage between scorpion stings and weather conditions was demonstrated through time series analysis and regression analysis considering the number of scorpion stings as dependent variable and climatic conditions as independent variables. The temperature, precipitation and wind are the retained climate factors, and the temperature has the higher effect. The model predicted the number of scorpion stings in 2011 with a good accuracy. The model could be used by public health makers of the province to anticipate the demand for antivenoms and symptomatic drugs so that they can be distributed in advance. This raises optimism for forecasting scorpion stings provided the availability of appropriate climate information.
Mathematics of Computation, 2000
In this paper, we enumerate all number fields of degree 10 of discriminant smaller than 10 11 in ... more In this paper, we enumerate all number fields of degree 10 of discriminant smaller than 10 11 in absolute value containing a quintic field having one real place. For each one of the 21509 (resp. 18167) found fields of signature (0, 5) (resp. (2, 4)) the field discriminant, the quintic field discriminant, a polynomial defining the relative quadratic extension, the corresponding relative discriminant, the corresponding polynomial over Q, and the Galois group of the Galois closure are given. In a supplementary section, we give the first coincidence of discriminant of 19 (resp. 20) nonisomorphic fields of signature (0, 5) (resp. (2, 4)).
We give the lists of all non-primitive number elds of degree eight having two, four and six real ... more We give the lists of all non-primitive number elds of degree eight having two, four and six real places of discriminant less than 6688609, 24363884 and 92810082, respectively, in absolute value. For each eld in the lists, we give its discriminant, the discriminant of its subelds, a relative polynomial gener- ating the eld over one of its subelds and its discriminant, the corresponding polynomial over Q, and the Galois group of its Galois closure.
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2010
Immunization with the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is currently used in many parts of t... more Immunization with the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is currently used in many parts of the world as a means of preventing tuberculosis even though it remains a highly controversial method of preventing tuberculosis disease. We develop a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis to monitor the effect of BCG vaccine, which may wane over time and which is not 100% effective, on tuberculosis epidemiology. The analysis of the presented model has provided conditions to guarantee the eradication of the disease in terms of three major parameters incorporated into the model; the vaccination coverage level, the waning rate and the efficacy of the vaccine.
Abstract. In this work, we establish lists for each signature of tenth degree number fields conta... more Abstract. In this work, we establish lists for each signature of tenth degree number fields containing a totally real quintic subfield and of discriminant less than 10 13 in absolute value. For each field in the list we give its discriminant, the discriminant of its subfield, a relative polynomial generating the field over one of its subfields, the corresponding polynomial over Q, and the Galois group of its Galois closure. We have examined the existence of several non-isomorphic fields with the same discriminants, and also the existence of unramified extensions and cyclic extensions. 1.
9Th European Conference on Mathematical and Theoretical Biology, Mar 31, 2014
International Journal of Mycobacteriology, 2021
Background: This study aimed to describe the spatiotemporal distribution, to build a forecasting ... more Background: This study aimed to describe the spatiotemporal distribution, to build a forecasting model, and to determine the seasonal pattern of tuberculosis (TB) in Algeria. Methods: The Box–Jenkins methodology was used to develop predictive models and GeoDa software was used to perform spatial autocorrelation. Results: Between 1982 and 2019, the notification rate per 100,000 population of smear-positive pulmonary TB (SPPTB) has dropped 62.2%, while that of extrapulmonary TB (EPTB) has risen 91.3%. For the last decade, the mean detection rate of PTB was 82.6%. At around, 2% of PTB cases were yearly reported in children under 15 years old, a peak in notification rate was observed in the elderly aged 65 and over, and the sex ratio was in favor of men. Between 52% and 59% of EPTB cases were lymphadenitis TB and between 15% and 23% were pleural TB. About two-third of EPTB cases were females and around 10% were children under the age of 15. The time series analysis showed that (1,1, 2) ...
Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Mathematics and Statistics, 2018
The present study aimed at estimating the size of phlebotomine sand fly population, the vector of... more The present study aimed at estimating the size of phlebotomine sand fly population, the vector of leishmaniases, and to gauge the impact of temperature on the size of this population. To this end, a deterministic model describing the dynamics of the phlebotomine sand fly population is presented. The global stability of the sand fly free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are proved and the basic offspring number, which represents the capacity of sand fly reproduction, is derived. Sensitivity analyses on basic offspring number and the endemic equilibrium with respect to the model parameters are carried out. The most sensitive parameters are considered, afterwards, temperature-dependent to show the influence of temperature on the population size of phlebotomine sand flies. It has been shown that the sand fly population cannot be maintained in an area when the temperature is below 15°C or when it exceeds 32°C, and the optimum temperature for reaching the high Phlebotomus papatasi ...
World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, International Journal of Mathematical, Computational, Physical, Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2014
We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian populat... more We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly-observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended. Keywords—Deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis.
In Algeria scorpion envenomation represents a real public health problem with a population at ris... more In Algeria scorpion envenomation represents a real public health problem with a population at risk of scorpion stings estimated at 68% of the national population. A total of 903, 461 scorpion sting cases and 1996 deaths were recorded by health services between 1991 and 2012. The physical-geographic and climate conditions make the province of Naama a conducive environment for scorpion species and an endemic zone for scorpion envenomation. A total of 22, 498 scorpion stings and 66 deaths were recorded by the Department of Public Health of the province between 1999 and 2013. An early warning system is an essential tool for preparedness and effectiveness of scorpion stings control; it could help determine the appropriate number of antivenom vials necessary in health facilities and anticipate the demand for antivenoms and symptomatic drugs so that they can be distributed in advance. To this end, we performed a regression analysis to estimate the relationship between scorpion sting cases ...
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Papers by Schehrazad Selmane