Papers by Rodrigo Guerrero
Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Nov 28, 2002
Salud Pública de México, 2008
Violence is currently considered to be both an epidemic problem and a public health problem among... more Violence is currently considered to be both an epidemic problem and a public health problem among youth and adolescents, who represent 31.6% and 20.3% of the overall population of the Americas region, respectively. This paper analyzes the scientific literature on violence prevention as it relates to successful interventions among these populations. Some of the most successful interventions are those related to active engagement of adults with children and adolescents and programs oriented toward early child development and adequate educational practices among parents. The latter is one of the most cost-effective violence prevention interventions for children and adolescents. Efforts to disarm civilian populations during critical periods have also been shown to be effective.
American journal of public health, 2021
Objectives. To examine homicide rates in Cali, Colombia, during the 1993-2018 period, using infor... more Objectives. To examine homicide rates in Cali, Colombia, during the 1993-2018 period, using information derived from an interagency surveillance system.Methods. We used homicide data from Cali's Epidemiological Surveillance System to examine homicide trends by victim's age and sex, time, and type of method used. We estimated trend changes and the annual percentage changes using joinpoint regression analyses.Results. Homicide rates per 100 000 inhabitants dropped from 102 in 1993 to 47.8 in 2018. We observed reductions in homicide rates across age and sex groups. Most homicide victims were men aged 20 to 39 years from poor, marginalized areas. Firearms were used in 84.9% of all cases. The average annual percentage change for the entire period was -3.6 (95% confidence interval = -6.7, -0.4).Conclusions. Fluctuations in homicide rates in Cali show a clear epidemic pattern, occurring concurrently with the "crack epidemic" in different countries. Reliable and timely inf...
Colombia Medica, 2000
Proyecto académico sin fines de lucro, desarrollado bajo la iniciativa de acceso abierto COLOMBIA... more Proyecto académico sin fines de lucro, desarrollado bajo la iniciativa de acceso abierto COLOMBIA MÉDICA
Colombia Medica, 2020
Currently, there are several mathematical models that have been developed to understand the dynam... more Currently, there are several mathematical models that have been developed to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. However, the difference in the sociocultural contexts between countries requires the specific adjustment of these estimates to each scenario. This article analyses the main elements used for the construction of models from epidemiological patterns, to describe the interaction, explain the dynamics of infection and recovery, and to predict possible scenarios that may arise with the introduction of public health measures such as social distancing and quarantines, specifically in the case of the pandemic unleashed by the new SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 virus. Comment: Mathematical models are highly relevant for making objective and effective decisions to control and eradicate the disease. These models used for COVID-19 have supported and will continue to provide information for the selection and implementation of programs and public policies that prevent associated compli...
... Autores: Rodrigo Guerrero; Localización: Convivencia y seguridad : un reto a la gobernabilida... more ... Autores: Rodrigo Guerrero; Localización: Convivencia y seguridad : un reto a la gobernabilidad : trabajos presentados en el foro "Convivencia y seguridad ciudadana" San Salvador, El Salvador / Jorge Sapoznikow ( ed. lit. ), Fernando Carrillo Flórez ( ed. lit. ...
Investigacion y Ciencia.es, 2015
Siguiendo la experiencia de Colombia, dirigentes urbanos de toda America recurren a la ciencia pa... more Siguiendo la experiencia de Colombia, dirigentes urbanos de toda America recurren a la ciencia para disminuir las tasas de homicidios.La violencia es un gran problema en la sociedad moderna, sobre todo en las ciudades. Los homicidios estaban fuera de control en mi ciudad, la colombiana Cali, cuando fui elegido su alcalde, en 1992. Pocos veían el asesinato como un problema urgente de salud. Mi opinión era otra, tal vez porque me había doctorado en epidemiología en la Escuela de Salud Pública de Har- vard. Para dar con el porqué de los homicidios y descubrir qué cambios sociales y políticos po- drían mejorar las cosas, decidí aplicar los métodos estadísticos de los expertos en salud pública.
Colombia Medica, 2020
Currently, there are several mathematical models that have been developed to understand the dynam... more Currently, there are several mathematical models that have been developed to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. However, the difference in the sociocultural contexts between countries requires the specific adjustment of these estimates to each scenario. This article analyses the main elements used for the construction of models from epidemiological patterns, to describe the interaction, explain the dynamics of infection and recovery, and to predict possible scenarios that may arise with the introduction of public health measures such as social distancing and quarantines, specifically in the case of the pandemic unleashed by the new SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 virus. Comment: Mathematical models are highly relevant for making objective and effective decisions to control and eradicate the disease. These models used for COVID-19 have supported and will continue to provide information for the selection and implementation of programs and public policies that prevent associated compli...
Asalto al desarrollo. Violencia en América Latina, 2000
“La violencia se ha convertido en el principal problema economico y social de America Latina. Las... more “La violencia se ha convertido en el principal problema economico y social de America Latina. Las encuestas de opinion realizadas durante 1996 por el LatinoBarometro en 17 paises de la region indicaban que la poblacion asi lo percibia. La Oficina del Economista Jefe del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, con la ayuda de Jose Luis Bobadilla, se propuso, por esas razones, convocar a centros de Investigacion de America Latina para la realizacion de un estudio comparativo en los paises de la region que permitiera generar conocimiento sobre la magnitud de la violencia intencional y no intencional sobre las personas y la propiedad, su impacto economico, los factores de riesgo y las relaciones causales que inciden en su ocurrencia, asi como las formas alternativas para controlarla. Tal convocatoria tuvo acogida en 40 centros de investigacion de 17 paises de la region, que presentaron propuestas para su estudio. Este capitulo introductorio, elaborado por los coordinadores del estudio con los insumos de todos los investigadores, busca presentar en forma sintetica los principales resultados de los estudios de caso en los distintos paises. La investigacion condujo a resultados muy interesantes en la descripcion empirica de niveles, modalidades y tendencias de violencia. Se lograron enormes innovaciones en la obtencion de datos basicos, al combinar en los distintos paises el analisis de las autopsias con encuestas directas a los diferentes agentes de la cadena de violencia: la opinion, las victimas, los victimarios y los servicios de salud. La seccion II del capitulo describe los principales resultados sobre la magnitud, dinamica y costos de la violencia urbana en los paises bajo estudio.”
El continuo reclamo de la ciudadania latinoamericana ha encontrado eco en un libro que estudia la... more El continuo reclamo de la ciudadania latinoamericana ha encontrado eco en un libro que estudia las distintas formas de la violencia, su prevencion y su alivio, al tiempo que abre el camino para una nueva generacion de reformas en materia de seguridad. En sus paginas el lector encontrara tanto un analisis a fondo del problema, que incluye la violencia juvenil, de genero e intrafamiliar, como un abanico de soluciones que implican el uso adecuado de sistemas de informacion, la participacion intensiva de la sociedad civil y el papel responsable de los medios de comunicacion.
Rev Panam Salud Publica, 2002
Las tasas de homicidios aumentaron de 23 a 124 por 100 000 habitantes en el período de 1983–1994.... more Las tasas de homicidios aumentaron de 23 a 124 por 100 000 habitantes en el período de 1983–1994. Posteriormente disminuyeron en 1995, 1996 y 1997 a 112, 102 y 86,1 por 100 000, respectivamente, y en 1998 ascendieron ligeramente hasta 88 por 100 000 habitantes. Aunque han sido víctimas de homicidios personas de todas las edades, hasta las menores de 5 años, los hombres entre los 20 y 34 años fueron los más afectados. La razón de hombre a mujer ha oscilado entre 14,3:1 y 19,2:1. Los estratos económicos bajos son los más afectados en número, proporción y tasa, aunque los del estrato alto han presentado tasas que llegan hasta 160 por 100 000 habitantes. En más del 80% de los homicidios se utilizó un arma de fuego y el siniestro ocurrió con mayor frecuencia en horas de la noche y durante los fines de En pocos casos (entre 8 y 21%) hubo un sindicado por el hecho. El análisis con dos variables mostró una asociación positiva con el consumo de alcohol por la víctima, y también con el uso de armas de fuego por el victimario (OR: 3,1; IC95%: 2,6 a 3,6). En los casos que ocurrieron durante una riña personal o de grupo se observó su asociación con el uso de un arma cortopunzante y con el consumo de bebidas alcohólicas por parte de la víctima (OR: 1,9; IC95%: 1,4–2,6).
Journal of Plastic, Reconstructive & Aesthetic Surgery, 2010
Dermal grafting after secondary wound healing constitutes the mainstay of management in cold inju... more Dermal grafting after secondary wound healing constitutes the mainstay of management in cold injury tissue defects, displacing the use of local flaps. We present an experimental study in which the following treatments for frostbite defects are compared: guided wound healing, partial-thickness skin grafts and cutaneous flaps, which by definition posses an independent vascular supply. A dorsal defect in the rabbit leg was created using a cold injury model. The animals were separated in three different sets, each with a specific treatment for the defect. In the first group, the defect was left to heal by secondary intention. In the second group, a dermal graft was used. In the third group, the defect was covered with a flap. The surface area lacking cutaneous cover at day 7 (SCp7) and the healing time (TC) were analysed. The cases in which flaps were employed presented a SCp7 of 62mm2, and a healing time of 11.6 days. When grafts were used, the SCp7 was 130mm2, and the healing time 15.9 days. The group which healed by secondary intention presented a SCp7 of 225mm2 and a healing time of 20.1 days. Compared to grafts, flaps provide a better skin cover both in quality and quantity. Their own vascularity makes them nondependent of the characteristics of the recipient bed. Due to this and to the radioisotopic and resonance imaging studies, which determine the ultimate level of tissue damage demarcation in a few days, an early treatment for these injuries is possible, with no need to achieve a favourable recipient site.
BMJ, 1998
Editor-To paraphrase a well known remark-wars are too serious to be entrusted to generals-public ... more Editor-To paraphrase a well known remark-wars are too serious to be entrusted to generals-public health, especially among poor people in developing countries and in the inner cities of industrialised countries, is too serious to be left to doctors and nurses alone. We say this quite deliberately as medical doctors on the staff of the World Health Organisation, of the Maryland department of health and mental hygiene, of universities, and of non-governmental organisations in Britain, Colombia, and Kenya. Our conviction is based on many years of work in the field in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, as well as in inner cities of the developed countries of Europe and North America. The number one health problem is poverty. For the poorest countries, the health sector alone cannot ensure better health even if it were able to function at maximum effectiveness. We have to accept that we can no longer deal with health while ignoring poverty. The World Health Organisation's annual report on the state of the world's health asserted in 1995 that poverty is the main reason why babies are not vaccinated, why clean water and adequate sanitation are not available to hundreds of millions of people, why curative drugs and treatments are not
![Research paper thumbnail of [System of comparable indicators for peaceful coexistence and citizen security: a consensus among countries]](https://attachments.academia-assets.com/76011597/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Revista panamericana de salud pública = Pan American journal of public health, 2012
The Region of the Americas, with a homicide rate of 16.4 per 100,000 population (2004), is the se... more The Region of the Americas, with a homicide rate of 16.4 per 100,000 population (2004), is the second most violent region in the world, but public policy-making for the prevention of violence and crime is hampered by the absence of reliable and comparable data on the problem's various manifestations. This paper describes a 14-country initiative, sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank in partnership with other regional agencies, to develop-collectively and by consensus- indicators for peaceful coexistence and citizen security that permit comparisons among countries, systematization of methods for the production and collection of pertinent data, the development of regional policies, and the dissemination and sharing of good practices. The selected indicators were homicide, death from road traffic injuries, suicide, death by firearm, sexual crime, family violence, child abuse, robbery, theft, vehicle theft and robbery, abduction, traffic offenses committed while under the...
Revista Colombiana de Obstetricia y Ginecología
Estudiar el comportamiento del espermatozoide «Y» en espermograma normal, moco cervical y endomet... more Estudiar el comportamiento del espermatozoide «Y» en espermograma normal, moco cervical y endometrio de mujeres en edad reproductiva.
La región de las Américas, con una tasa de homicidios de 16,4 por 100 000 habitantes (2004), es l... more La región de las Américas, con una tasa de homicidios de 16,4 por 100 000 habitantes (2004), es la segunda más violenta del mundo, pero la formulación de políticas públicas de prevención de violencia y delincuencia se ve obstaculizada por la ausencia de datos confiables y comparables sobre las diferentes manifestaciones del problema. El presente trabajo detalla un esfuerzo realizado por 14 países, patrocinado por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo y en asocio con otros organismos regionales, para desarrollar-de manera colectiva y consensuadaindicadores de convivencia y seguridad ciudadana que permitan comparaciones entre países, sistematizar métodos de producción y recolección de los datos pertinentes, generar políticas regionales y difundir e intercambiar buenas prácticas identificadas. Los indicadores escogidos fueron homicidio, muerte por lesiones de tránsito, suicidio, muerte por arma de fuego, delito sexual, violencia intrafamiliar, maltrato infantil, hurto, robo, hurto/robo de vehículos, secuestro, infracción de tránsito bajo efectos del alcohol, victimización general, victimización por robo, victimización por hurto, percepción de inseguridad, percepción de miedo, confianza en las instituciones y justificación del uso de violencia. Para cada indicador se acordó la forma de medición y las variables mínimas que deben tenerse en cuenta para contar con criterios de comparación apropiados.
SUMARIO i. Introducción. ii. Bloque de constitucionalidad. iii. Derechos políticos. iv. El princi... more SUMARIO i. Introducción. ii. Bloque de constitucionalidad. iii. Derechos políticos. iv. El principio pro homine. v. Restricción a derechos y principio democrático. vi. Restricción al derecho a ser elegido en Colombia. vii. Conclusiones RESUMEN Este artículo cuestiona la facultad normativa que existe en Colombia para restringir el derecho a ser elegido por razones distintas de las contenidas en los tratados internacionales que hacen parte del bloque de constitucionalidad y que, es claro, deben primar en el orden interno. El Código Único Disciplinario (Ley 734 de 2002), por ejemplo, permite que mediante un proceso de carácter administrativo, distinto del penal, se limiten duramente los derechos políticos fundamentales de los ciudadanos, a pesar de lo establecido en el artículo 23 de la Convención Americana sobre Derechos Humanos referente a esta clase de derechos. Sin embargo, la Corte Constitucional insiste en la constitucionalidad de las referidas normas que a todas luces resultan violatorias de nuestra Constitución. PALABRAS CLAVE Bloque de constitucionalidad, principio pro homine, principio democrático, derechos políticos, derecho a ser elegido, restricción de derechos, Convención Americana sobre Derechos Humanos, control disciplinario, Ley 734 de 2002.
Colombia Medica
We thank Dr. Colebunders for his comments regarding our manuscript. Our study was an ecological s... more We thank Dr. Colebunders for his comments regarding our manuscript. Our study was an ecological study prompted by the low frequency of cases and deaths from the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 virus in some African countries. We agree with Dr. Colebunders that other factors could explain the observed association between APOC countries and COVID-19 mortality. However, these unmeasured confounders would have to be strongly associated with Covid-19 mortality to explain the observed 28% reduction. In updated information, as of 12-17-20, APOC countries had a 42% lower risk of death than the non-APOC countries, adjusted for confounders. (Not published) Hellwig et al., in addition to reporting similar findings to ours for African and Asian countries, surmised that they may be connected to ivermectin’s ability to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication suggesting other pathways must exist to explain the persistence of such an inhibitory effect after serum levels of ivermectin have declined. As mentioned by Mbow...
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Papers by Rodrigo Guerrero