How does Asia compare to other regions in terms of LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender)... more How does Asia compare to other regions in terms of LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender) rights? While Asia lags behind the West on typical metrics of LGBT rights, this fails to capture the diversity of tolerance historically in the region. At the same time, conservative backlashes to LGBT policies are evident across the region, often invoking traditionalist or religious opposition, as also seen outside of the region. Moreover, much of the literature myopically focuses on one or two countries in Asia, rarely attempting to make broad comparisons across East, South, and Central Asia. Part of this is due to terminology differences, where “homosexual” is commonly used in some countries as a catch-all term for members of the LGBT community, compared to others in the region countries, especially in South Asia, with a longer history of specialized terminology for transgendered people. Yet broader comparisons in the absence of terminology differences remain rare despite growing att...
ABSTRACT Microstates, and especially island microstates, are routinely absent in cross-national s... more ABSTRACT Microstates, and especially island microstates, are routinely absent in cross-national studies of political contention, despite several structural conditions that seem to make anti-state action more likely in these countries. Through a structured comparative analysis of two African island microstates, Cape Verde and Comoros, this paper intends to uncover correlations between structural and institutional conditions and levels of political contention. While several structural factors may make contention more probable in island microstates, this analysis suggests that four variables - international aid, representative institutions, emigration opportunities, and political stability are correlated with levels of contention.
Different countries use different electoral systems, with one key variant being the number of ele... more Different countries use different electoral systems, with one key variant being the number of elected representatives in each district or constituency. Timothy S. Rich argues that context is important in assessing the desirability of mixed legislative systems, which on paper have much to commend them to electoral reformers.
THE OUTBREAK of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 was generally seen as an apoliti... more THE OUTBREAK of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 was generally seen as an apolitical phenomenon, but the strain it placed on cross-strait relations had important political ramifications. Facing poor economic conditions and a growing opposition, Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian successfully used the outbreak to direct political debate in Taiwan away from domestic issues and towards cross-strait relations. Analysis of news coverage and polling data demonstrates that the change of focus of political debate in Taiwan towards these areas where Chen was seen as stronger than his opposition, was gradually translated into increased support for Chen's re-election. This analysis also shows how the democratisation of Taiwan and the rise of a Taiwanese identity have complicated cross-strait relations, by creating potential electoral incentives to candidates who take a stronger stance against the Chinese mainland.
What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this i... more What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this influence split-ticketing voting? Although voters cast both ballots in effect simultaneously, they may make their decisions on which candidate and party to support sequentially. Using Japan's 2012 election as a case study, empirical analyses find that the district nominations influence the timing of one's district vote intention. Meanwhile the timing of vote choices corresponds with ticket-splitting, even after controlling for partisan and socioeconomic factors.
This article highlights the precarious nature of Taiwan's diplomatic relations in Africa. Whe... more This article highlights the precarious nature of Taiwan's diplomatic relations in Africa. Whereas Cold War rationales initially benefitted Taiwan, economic interests now appear to incentivize African countries to establish relations with China. Through qualitative and quantitative data covering much of the post-World War II era, this analysis argues that economic factors have trumped political rationales for Taiwanese–African relations. In addition, this article problematizes both conceptions of diplomatic recognition and Taiwan's enduring relations with Africa.
A large literature identifies perceptual differences between citizens that support winning partie... more A large literature identifies perceptual differences between citizens that support winning parties versus losing parties. These analyses fail to capture the complexity of mixed member legi이ative systems where one can be a winner or loser at both the national and district level. This paper proposes a two-level framework for the analysis of mixed system. An analysis of Taiwan's first election under a mixed system provides evidence that both support for a national winner and district level winner produce boosts in positive perceptions of the electoral system. National success appears to be a larger motivator of perceptions. Elections are the foundation of representative democracy. Partisan differences in opinion naturally arise, yet until recently, few researchers analyzed the perceptions of democratic quality between those who win versus those who lose out in electoral competition. Losers' consent remains crucial for democratic stability and the variance in perceptions between winners and losers provides a means to assess the stability in democracies young and old. Despite the insight from this growing literature, researchers continue to focus primarily on Western democracies. Furthermore, what constitutes a winner requires greater clarity, particularly in mixed legislative system elections where voters choose both a district candidate and a party list. This paper intends to extend our understanding of losers' consent through a multilevel conception of electoral success, a conception more in tune with the dynamics of mixed systems. By definition mixed legislative systems employ at least two mechanisms to allocate seats in one chamber of a legislature. Most of these combinations are single member districts (SMDs) like those in the United States and United Kingdom, combined with seats by proportional representation (PR) allocated at the national or provincial level.1 Mixed systems were a rarity prior to 1990 with Germany as the only democracy to consistently employ a mixed legislative system. Since 1990 however, mixed systems have arisen in East and Southeast Asia, the former communist world, Latin America, Africa, and New Zealand. Just as pure PR systems were the electoral system of choice in the twentieth century, mixed systems have the potential to proliferate in a similar
How do institutional factors shape district competition in mixed legislative systems? Preliminary... more How do institutional factors shape district competition in mixed legislative systems? Preliminary evidence suggests the distinction between sub-types of mixed systems alone poorly explains variation in district results. Consistent with the contamination thesis, this analysis suggests three additional nationallevel factors at play: fused ballots, the electoral threshold for proportional representation seats, and the existence of compulsory voting laws. Regression analysis on an original dataset covering 90 mixed system elections in 23 countries (1990-2012) finds that while mixed member majoritarian systems correlate with fewer district candidates, these three often overlooked factors are also statistically significant.This analysis highlights the complexity of mixed systems and suggests why many of them diverge from Duverger's Law.
Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho’s newly found democratic stability. Observers focus o... more Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho’s newly found democratic stability. Observers focus on educating the public about the electoral system and encouraging pre-election coalition discussions. However, this analysis suggests that such remedies ignore the institutional influences of Lesotho’s electoral system that undermine both public understanding and stability. Furthermore, a statistical analysis of district competition finds the 2015 elections to be largely consistent with previous elections, but that the percentage of rejected ballots correlates with a district victory for the largest party. Although this may simply be a statistical anomaly, the findings highlight structural challenges and reconsideration of electoral reforms.
Abstract Although two-vote mixed legislative systems have proliferated globally, the factors cont... more Abstract Although two-vote mixed legislative systems have proliferated globally, the factors contributing to split-ticketing in these cases remains poorly understood. Using survey data regarding South Korea's 2008 National Assembly election, this article addresses two questions: Is ticket-splitting in two-vote legislative systems influenced by the timing of one's vote decision and are late deciders more or less rational in their decision to ticket-split than early deciders? Empirical analysis finds that split-ticket voting under various specifications is more likely to be carried out by late deciders. Among split-ticket voters, however, late deciders are more likely to irrationally split their vote.
What motivates split-ticket voting in mixed electoral systems? These systems allocate seats in si... more What motivates split-ticket voting in mixed electoral systems? These systems allocate seats in single-member districts (SMDs) and by proportional representation (PR) to the same legislative house and have proliferated in Asia as well as globally. Using public opinion data from South Korea's 2012 National Assembly election, this article identifies that supporters of smaller parties are more likely to split their tickets. This is consistent with the “best of both worlds” thesis that presumes two-party competition in SMDs and multiparty competition under PR. The results suggest that despite scholarly claims of an Asian divergence in electoral outputs, the South Korean case appears consistent with theoretical expectations from outside the region.
Fenno’s Paradox—the preference for one’s own legislator while disliking the legislature as a whol... more Fenno’s Paradox—the preference for one’s own legislator while disliking the legislature as a whole—remains one of the most consistent findings in American politics. This tendency increases the likelihood for incumbents to win reelection, despite being a part of a less popular institution. Little analysis looks at whether Fenno’s Paradox exists outside of the US in other legislative contexts, or whether incumbency itself or partisan identification is the larger influence. Using 2012 survey data from Taiwan, a mixed member system, this analysis examines individual level divergence between preference for a legislator and institutional preference. Consistent with work in American politics, we find a marginal incumbency advantage, but this effect is attenuated by the partisanship of the district legislator.
How do electoral rules shape competition? District level data from South Korea's seven legisl... more How do electoral rules shape competition? District level data from South Korea's seven legislative elections since democratization (1988-2012) provides a means to test one of the oldest findings in political science: Duverger's Law. South Korea provides a unique opportunity to analyze variation in mixed election rules, where seats are allocated in both single member districts (SMDs) and by a nationwide party list by proportional representation (PR), as the country has used three different electoral formulas over the time period. Through quantitative analysis, evidence of a gradual reduction in the number of candidates is evident as is a more nuanced influence of regionalism on vote concentration.
What explains patterns in North Korea's own coverage of nuclear issues? The conventional wisdom a... more What explains patterns in North Korea's own coverage of nuclear issues? The conventional wisdom assumes that North Korea focuses its attention on the United States and that changes in the administrations in the United States and South Korea influence such rhetoric, yet this remains largely untested. Content analysis using daily English news reports from the Korean Central News Agency from 1997 through 2012 provides an explicit base for how the regime attempts to frame nuclear issues for a foreign audience. References to the United States positively correlate with nuclear reference while findings regarding US and South Korean administrations conflict with the conventional wisdom. References to the Kims also negatively correlate with nuclear references with variation after Kim Jong Il's death. More broadly this analysis suggests the possible leverage of analyzing North Korea's own materials.
How do scammers invoke trust within the Nigerian email scam and how do recipients interpret such ... more How do scammers invoke trust within the Nigerian email scam and how do recipients interpret such trust-laden offers? Rather than view the email content as static, this article suggests that the emails strategically appeal to trust as a means to enhance susceptibility. Content analysis of over a half-million scam emails reveals that references to trust language are most common in larger award claims and those claiming to be from Africa. However, experimental evidence suggests that trust language within scam letters has minimal influence on respondents’ perceptions of the letter. This analysis expands our understanding of the psychology behind the scam letter format and suggests means to further combat email fraud.
To what extent do electoral institutions influence positions on same-sex marriage? Debates over s... more To what extent do electoral institutions influence positions on same-sex marriage? Debates over same-sex marriage legislation have increased globally for the past 20 years, yet little research focuses on either debates in East Asia or the effect of electoral institutions. Using an original dataset on Taiwanese legislators and their public stances on same-sex marriage, this research finds that legislators elected under proportional representation (PR) are consistently more likely to support same-sex marriage laws than their counterparts elected in single-member districts (SMDs), even after controlling for partisanship. The results here not only highlight overlooked institutional influences on support, but also tie the broader literature on mixed-member systems to the growing research on same-sex marriage rights.
Duverger’s Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from... more Duverger’s Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from mixed member systems is less consistent with these theoretical expectations. Rather than simply focusing on whether Japan’s most recent House of Representatives election converges toward Duvergerian equilibrium, this article focuses on three factors within Japan. In particular, how do the roles of major party nominations, incumbency, and dual-listing shape district competition vis-à-vis Duverger? Empirical results find that the lack of a Democratic Party of Japan candidate decreases the effective number of candidates, while the lack of a Liberal Democratic Party candidate, multiple incumbents, and dual-listing correlates with an increased number of candidates. The results suggest that often ignored underlying effects of Japan’s mixed system influences its consistency with theoretical expectations.
How do mixed legislative systems shape voter behavior and public perceptions? Through an analysis... more How do mixed legislative systems shape voter behavior and public perceptions? Through an analysis of the electoral systems in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, this paper evaluates the extent to which the public in these three countries understand their mixed systems and whether claims of voter ignorance translate into irrational voting behavior based on the institutional effects of mixed systems. Through a multi-method approach including data from outside of East Asia, this analysis seeks to determine whether these three cases exhibit patterns consistent with other mixed systems. Empirical analysis affirms levels of strategic voting consistent with comprehension of electoral rules. Furthermore, this analysis suggests a disconnect between practical knowledge and electoral expectations.
How does Asia compare to other regions in terms of LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender)... more How does Asia compare to other regions in terms of LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender) rights? While Asia lags behind the West on typical metrics of LGBT rights, this fails to capture the diversity of tolerance historically in the region. At the same time, conservative backlashes to LGBT policies are evident across the region, often invoking traditionalist or religious opposition, as also seen outside of the region. Moreover, much of the literature myopically focuses on one or two countries in Asia, rarely attempting to make broad comparisons across East, South, and Central Asia. Part of this is due to terminology differences, where “homosexual” is commonly used in some countries as a catch-all term for members of the LGBT community, compared to others in the region countries, especially in South Asia, with a longer history of specialized terminology for transgendered people. Yet broader comparisons in the absence of terminology differences remain rare despite growing att...
ABSTRACT Microstates, and especially island microstates, are routinely absent in cross-national s... more ABSTRACT Microstates, and especially island microstates, are routinely absent in cross-national studies of political contention, despite several structural conditions that seem to make anti-state action more likely in these countries. Through a structured comparative analysis of two African island microstates, Cape Verde and Comoros, this paper intends to uncover correlations between structural and institutional conditions and levels of political contention. While several structural factors may make contention more probable in island microstates, this analysis suggests that four variables - international aid, representative institutions, emigration opportunities, and political stability are correlated with levels of contention.
Different countries use different electoral systems, with one key variant being the number of ele... more Different countries use different electoral systems, with one key variant being the number of elected representatives in each district or constituency. Timothy S. Rich argues that context is important in assessing the desirability of mixed legislative systems, which on paper have much to commend them to electoral reformers.
THE OUTBREAK of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 was generally seen as an apoliti... more THE OUTBREAK of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 was generally seen as an apolitical phenomenon, but the strain it placed on cross-strait relations had important political ramifications. Facing poor economic conditions and a growing opposition, Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian successfully used the outbreak to direct political debate in Taiwan away from domestic issues and towards cross-strait relations. Analysis of news coverage and polling data demonstrates that the change of focus of political debate in Taiwan towards these areas where Chen was seen as stronger than his opposition, was gradually translated into increased support for Chen's re-election. This analysis also shows how the democratisation of Taiwan and the rise of a Taiwanese identity have complicated cross-strait relations, by creating potential electoral incentives to candidates who take a stronger stance against the Chinese mainland.
What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this i... more What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this influence split-ticketing voting? Although voters cast both ballots in effect simultaneously, they may make their decisions on which candidate and party to support sequentially. Using Japan's 2012 election as a case study, empirical analyses find that the district nominations influence the timing of one's district vote intention. Meanwhile the timing of vote choices corresponds with ticket-splitting, even after controlling for partisan and socioeconomic factors.
This article highlights the precarious nature of Taiwan's diplomatic relations in Africa. Whe... more This article highlights the precarious nature of Taiwan's diplomatic relations in Africa. Whereas Cold War rationales initially benefitted Taiwan, economic interests now appear to incentivize African countries to establish relations with China. Through qualitative and quantitative data covering much of the post-World War II era, this analysis argues that economic factors have trumped political rationales for Taiwanese–African relations. In addition, this article problematizes both conceptions of diplomatic recognition and Taiwan's enduring relations with Africa.
A large literature identifies perceptual differences between citizens that support winning partie... more A large literature identifies perceptual differences between citizens that support winning parties versus losing parties. These analyses fail to capture the complexity of mixed member legi이ative systems where one can be a winner or loser at both the national and district level. This paper proposes a two-level framework for the analysis of mixed system. An analysis of Taiwan's first election under a mixed system provides evidence that both support for a national winner and district level winner produce boosts in positive perceptions of the electoral system. National success appears to be a larger motivator of perceptions. Elections are the foundation of representative democracy. Partisan differences in opinion naturally arise, yet until recently, few researchers analyzed the perceptions of democratic quality between those who win versus those who lose out in electoral competition. Losers' consent remains crucial for democratic stability and the variance in perceptions between winners and losers provides a means to assess the stability in democracies young and old. Despite the insight from this growing literature, researchers continue to focus primarily on Western democracies. Furthermore, what constitutes a winner requires greater clarity, particularly in mixed legislative system elections where voters choose both a district candidate and a party list. This paper intends to extend our understanding of losers' consent through a multilevel conception of electoral success, a conception more in tune with the dynamics of mixed systems. By definition mixed legislative systems employ at least two mechanisms to allocate seats in one chamber of a legislature. Most of these combinations are single member districts (SMDs) like those in the United States and United Kingdom, combined with seats by proportional representation (PR) allocated at the national or provincial level.1 Mixed systems were a rarity prior to 1990 with Germany as the only democracy to consistently employ a mixed legislative system. Since 1990 however, mixed systems have arisen in East and Southeast Asia, the former communist world, Latin America, Africa, and New Zealand. Just as pure PR systems were the electoral system of choice in the twentieth century, mixed systems have the potential to proliferate in a similar
How do institutional factors shape district competition in mixed legislative systems? Preliminary... more How do institutional factors shape district competition in mixed legislative systems? Preliminary evidence suggests the distinction between sub-types of mixed systems alone poorly explains variation in district results. Consistent with the contamination thesis, this analysis suggests three additional nationallevel factors at play: fused ballots, the electoral threshold for proportional representation seats, and the existence of compulsory voting laws. Regression analysis on an original dataset covering 90 mixed system elections in 23 countries (1990-2012) finds that while mixed member majoritarian systems correlate with fewer district candidates, these three often overlooked factors are also statistically significant.This analysis highlights the complexity of mixed systems and suggests why many of them diverge from Duverger's Law.
Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho’s newly found democratic stability. Observers focus o... more Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho’s newly found democratic stability. Observers focus on educating the public about the electoral system and encouraging pre-election coalition discussions. However, this analysis suggests that such remedies ignore the institutional influences of Lesotho’s electoral system that undermine both public understanding and stability. Furthermore, a statistical analysis of district competition finds the 2015 elections to be largely consistent with previous elections, but that the percentage of rejected ballots correlates with a district victory for the largest party. Although this may simply be a statistical anomaly, the findings highlight structural challenges and reconsideration of electoral reforms.
Abstract Although two-vote mixed legislative systems have proliferated globally, the factors cont... more Abstract Although two-vote mixed legislative systems have proliferated globally, the factors contributing to split-ticketing in these cases remains poorly understood. Using survey data regarding South Korea's 2008 National Assembly election, this article addresses two questions: Is ticket-splitting in two-vote legislative systems influenced by the timing of one's vote decision and are late deciders more or less rational in their decision to ticket-split than early deciders? Empirical analysis finds that split-ticket voting under various specifications is more likely to be carried out by late deciders. Among split-ticket voters, however, late deciders are more likely to irrationally split their vote.
What motivates split-ticket voting in mixed electoral systems? These systems allocate seats in si... more What motivates split-ticket voting in mixed electoral systems? These systems allocate seats in single-member districts (SMDs) and by proportional representation (PR) to the same legislative house and have proliferated in Asia as well as globally. Using public opinion data from South Korea's 2012 National Assembly election, this article identifies that supporters of smaller parties are more likely to split their tickets. This is consistent with the “best of both worlds” thesis that presumes two-party competition in SMDs and multiparty competition under PR. The results suggest that despite scholarly claims of an Asian divergence in electoral outputs, the South Korean case appears consistent with theoretical expectations from outside the region.
Fenno’s Paradox—the preference for one’s own legislator while disliking the legislature as a whol... more Fenno’s Paradox—the preference for one’s own legislator while disliking the legislature as a whole—remains one of the most consistent findings in American politics. This tendency increases the likelihood for incumbents to win reelection, despite being a part of a less popular institution. Little analysis looks at whether Fenno’s Paradox exists outside of the US in other legislative contexts, or whether incumbency itself or partisan identification is the larger influence. Using 2012 survey data from Taiwan, a mixed member system, this analysis examines individual level divergence between preference for a legislator and institutional preference. Consistent with work in American politics, we find a marginal incumbency advantage, but this effect is attenuated by the partisanship of the district legislator.
How do electoral rules shape competition? District level data from South Korea's seven legisl... more How do electoral rules shape competition? District level data from South Korea's seven legislative elections since democratization (1988-2012) provides a means to test one of the oldest findings in political science: Duverger's Law. South Korea provides a unique opportunity to analyze variation in mixed election rules, where seats are allocated in both single member districts (SMDs) and by a nationwide party list by proportional representation (PR), as the country has used three different electoral formulas over the time period. Through quantitative analysis, evidence of a gradual reduction in the number of candidates is evident as is a more nuanced influence of regionalism on vote concentration.
What explains patterns in North Korea's own coverage of nuclear issues? The conventional wisdom a... more What explains patterns in North Korea's own coverage of nuclear issues? The conventional wisdom assumes that North Korea focuses its attention on the United States and that changes in the administrations in the United States and South Korea influence such rhetoric, yet this remains largely untested. Content analysis using daily English news reports from the Korean Central News Agency from 1997 through 2012 provides an explicit base for how the regime attempts to frame nuclear issues for a foreign audience. References to the United States positively correlate with nuclear reference while findings regarding US and South Korean administrations conflict with the conventional wisdom. References to the Kims also negatively correlate with nuclear references with variation after Kim Jong Il's death. More broadly this analysis suggests the possible leverage of analyzing North Korea's own materials.
How do scammers invoke trust within the Nigerian email scam and how do recipients interpret such ... more How do scammers invoke trust within the Nigerian email scam and how do recipients interpret such trust-laden offers? Rather than view the email content as static, this article suggests that the emails strategically appeal to trust as a means to enhance susceptibility. Content analysis of over a half-million scam emails reveals that references to trust language are most common in larger award claims and those claiming to be from Africa. However, experimental evidence suggests that trust language within scam letters has minimal influence on respondents’ perceptions of the letter. This analysis expands our understanding of the psychology behind the scam letter format and suggests means to further combat email fraud.
To what extent do electoral institutions influence positions on same-sex marriage? Debates over s... more To what extent do electoral institutions influence positions on same-sex marriage? Debates over same-sex marriage legislation have increased globally for the past 20 years, yet little research focuses on either debates in East Asia or the effect of electoral institutions. Using an original dataset on Taiwanese legislators and their public stances on same-sex marriage, this research finds that legislators elected under proportional representation (PR) are consistently more likely to support same-sex marriage laws than their counterparts elected in single-member districts (SMDs), even after controlling for partisanship. The results here not only highlight overlooked institutional influences on support, but also tie the broader literature on mixed-member systems to the growing research on same-sex marriage rights.
Duverger’s Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from... more Duverger’s Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from mixed member systems is less consistent with these theoretical expectations. Rather than simply focusing on whether Japan’s most recent House of Representatives election converges toward Duvergerian equilibrium, this article focuses on three factors within Japan. In particular, how do the roles of major party nominations, incumbency, and dual-listing shape district competition vis-à-vis Duverger? Empirical results find that the lack of a Democratic Party of Japan candidate decreases the effective number of candidates, while the lack of a Liberal Democratic Party candidate, multiple incumbents, and dual-listing correlates with an increased number of candidates. The results suggest that often ignored underlying effects of Japan’s mixed system influences its consistency with theoretical expectations.
How do mixed legislative systems shape voter behavior and public perceptions? Through an analysis... more How do mixed legislative systems shape voter behavior and public perceptions? Through an analysis of the electoral systems in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, this paper evaluates the extent to which the public in these three countries understand their mixed systems and whether claims of voter ignorance translate into irrational voting behavior based on the institutional effects of mixed systems. Through a multi-method approach including data from outside of East Asia, this analysis seeks to determine whether these three cases exhibit patterns consistent with other mixed systems. Empirical analysis affirms levels of strategic voting consistent with comprehension of electoral rules. Furthermore, this analysis suggests a disconnect between practical knowledge and electoral expectations.
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Papers by Timothy Rich