Papers by Reto Schumacher
Historical Life Course Studies
This article analyzes the evolution of the sequencing of family life events in Europe during the ... more This article analyzes the evolution of the sequencing of family life events in Europe during the second half of the 20th century using individual data from the European Social Survey and from the Generation and Gender Program. Considering the four events ‘leaving the parental home‘, ‘first cohabiting union‘, ‘first marriage‘, and ‘first parenthood‘, we hypothesize a transition from a traditional standard event order characterized by a high degree of synchronization between the first three events towards a new standard whose features are a high degree of de-synchronization between first cohabitation and first marriage and a reversal of the traditional order between first marriage and first parenthood. We also hypothesize cross-regional differences in the timing and in the shape of the transition from one standard to another. Applying specifically developed tools to visualize and analyze event sequences, we show important regional variation in the evolution of the sequencing of family...
Creative Commons: Attribution CC BY 4.0. Der Inhalt unter der Creative-Commons-Lizenz darf von Dr... more Creative Commons: Attribution CC BY 4.0. Der Inhalt unter der Creative-Commons-Lizenz darf von Drittpersonen unter den folgenden, von den Autoren definierten Bedingungen verwendet werden: Sie dürfen das Material teilen, kopieren, frei nutzen und in jeder Form verbreiten, unter der Bedingung, dass die Urheberschaft dabei gennant wird.
C’est une certitude, avec l’arrivée à l’âge de la retraite des générations nombreuses du baby-boo... more C’est une certitude, avec l’arrivée à l’âge de la retraite des générations nombreuses du baby-boom et l’allongement de la vie, le nombre de séniors va fortement augmenter d’ici à 2040 et même au-delà (jusqu’en 2065 dans tous les cas). Les plus âgés (80 ans et plus), qui nécessitent les prises en charge les plus lourdes, sont ceux qui progresseront le plus ; leur nombre va probablement doubler d’ici à 2040. Le but de la présente étude est de permettre aux acteurs du système de santé – dont l’Etat – d’adapter leurs actions présentes et futures à la lumière des effets considérables que cette hausse aura inévitablement pour les patients, leur entourage, les professionnels et les budgets de la santé. Si cette étude concentre ses projections sur les aides et soins à domicile, les soins stationnaires hospitaliers et l’hébergement dans les établissements médico-sociaux, les défis mis en évidence concernent aussi les autres dimensions du système de santé (de la prévention et des aides informelles à la médecine ambulatoire). En ne se limitant pas aux scénarios les plus probables et en allant au-delà de l’horizon de projection habituel, cette étude montre sans ambiguïté les trois défis majeurs auxquels le système de santé devra faire face aux cours de ces prochaines décennies : Répondre à la hausse rapide, importante et durable des besoins ; Adapter le système de santé pour mieux répondre aux besoins multiples des séniors devenus proportionnellement plus nombreux ; Assurer le financement des prestations qui seront délivrées. Etant donné les dynamiques démographiques, ces défis vont rapidement devenir importants et ne doivent donc pas être considérés comme lointains : le nombre des plus âgés devrait atteindre 55 000 personnes en 2029-2032 déjà (contre 36 000 aujourd’hui, soit +53%) et l’on ne peut pas espérer que les progrès améliorent foncièrement leur état de santé d’ici là. Si cette étude ne fait pas de recommandations en termes de modalités de prise en charge des séniors ou de financement, elle montre que les solutions impliqueront d’augmenter les moyens consacrés à la santé et que des arbitrages devront être faits entre les différents besoins de la population : les séniors, qui occasionnent déjà près de la moitié des coûts de la santé avec 16% de la population, représenteront entre 21% et 23% de la population vaudoise en 2040 selon les trajectoires les plus probables. Cette étude montre par ailleurs que pour répondre aux besoins spécifiques des séniors, il faudra réorienter et adapter le système pour renforcer la coordination des aides et des soins. Parmi les plus âgés, 41% des personnes sont atteintes de plusieurs maladies chroniques (enquête suisse sur la santé de 2012). Dès lors, leurs besoins sont multidimensionnels et s’inscrivent dans la durée (29% des séniors vaudois bénéficient d’aides et de soins de longue durée). Or, souvent encore, les patients se trouvent confrontés à un système conçu pour répondre à des évènements urgents et ponctuels et à des acteurs qui gèrent les questions de santé de façon dissociée et fragmentée (plusieurs spécialistes).
Historical studies have often shown a high degree of residential mobility among urban populations... more Historical studies have often shown a high degree of residential mobility among urban populations. Using a longitudinal perspective, this article investigates the mobility behavior of two samples of individuals who lived on one of two streets of the city of Lausanne (rue du Bourg and rue du Pont) between 1835 and 1844. Our analysis shows that both streets were characterized by a high turnover and a high degree of residential mobility. In the year following the first observation, only half of the individuals still lived in the same house, and less than one out of eight individuals lived on the same street during 5 consecutive years. A multivariate analysis shows that the level of residential mobility differed according to the individuals’ profile. Family members (heads of the household, spouses and children) were more sedentary than domestic servants and lodgers. Moreover, we found an inverse relationship between social status and level of mobility, as well as a higher degree of residential stability among women.
Social Change, 2017
Seit 1980 hat sich die Erwerbsquote von Muttern mit Kindern im Vorschulalter fast verdreifacht. T... more Seit 1980 hat sich die Erwerbsquote von Muttern mit Kindern im Vorschulalter fast verdreifacht. Trotz dieser ausgepragten Veranderung zeigen sich auch heute noch starke regionale und soziodemographische Unterschiede in der Berufstatigkeit und Arbeitszeit junger Mutter. In diesem Beitrag analysieren wir die Entwicklung individueller Eigenschaften, welche die Arbeitsmarkt-beteiligung von Muttern begunstigt oder erschwert haben konnen. Dabei verwenden wir Daten aus den Volkszahlungen von 1980, 1990 und 2000 und den Strukturerhebungen von 2010 bis 2014. Unsere Analyse zeigt eine anhaltend erhohte wirtschaftliche Teilhabe von Muttern mit tertiarer Ausbildung und eine starkere Zunahme der Erwerbsquote bei Muttern mit Schweizer Burgerrecht. Ausserdem hat sich die Zahl der zu betreuenden Kinder im Lauf der Zeit ausgepragter auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung von Muttern ausgewirkt.
Demographic Research, 2019
BACKGROUND A long-standing and still unresolved debate has developed on whether the historical fe... more BACKGROUND A long-standing and still unresolved debate has developed on whether the historical fertility transition was caused by 'spacing' (increasing the time between births) or by stopping (terminating childbearing at younger ages). Moreover, there is little consensus about the relative importance of gender relations in effecting reproductive change. OBJECTIVE First, we wish to shed new light on the stopping versus spacing debate by applying a sequence analysis approach, allowing us to describe changes in complete childbearing trajectories. Second, we want to understand the association between gender relations, among other factors, and reproductive trajectories during the historical fertility decline. METHODS We use longitudinal data from GENLIAS, a dataset constructed from linked civil registers of the province of Zeeland, the Netherlands, covering the period 1811-1911. We employ cluster and sequence analysis to identify different types of childbearing trajectories and logistic regression to estimate their correlates. RESULTS We identified five often-experienced trajectories: two high-fertility traditional trajectories (differing in the length of the reproductive phase), a 'Stoppers' trajectory, a 'Late Starters' trajectory, and an 'Almost Childless' trajectory. Our results show that stopping was the way through which couples controlled their fertility during the early phase of the historical fertility transition in Zeeland, the Netherlands. Although couples with more egalitarian relationships had a higher likelihood to follow a Stoppers trajectory rather than the highest-fertility trajectory, stopping was most clearly linked to birth cohort and social class. Bras & Schumacher: An analysis of childbearing trajectories in 19 th-century Netherlands http://www.demographic-research.org CONTRIBUTION Our paper extends the literature on the process of the historical fertility decline and its determinants via a detailed empirical examination of childbearing trajectories and the conditions under which these trajectories took place. With our sequence analysis approach we add both substantively and methodologically to long-standing debates.
New Approaches to Death in Cities during the Health Transition, 2016
In this chapter, I analyze the impact of reproductive behaviour on levels of infant and child mor... more In this chapter, I analyze the impact of reproductive behaviour on levels of infant and child mortality, as well as on the strength of child death clustering among families in nineteenth century Geneva. To do so, I first study the association between fertility behaviour and child mortality from a top-down perspective combining survival and sequence analysis. In a second step, I analyze the relationship from a bottom-up point of view using hazard modelling. The sequence analysis of birth spacing does not show any substantial differences between families of high child mortality risks on the one hand and families of low risks for child mortality on the other hand. The hazard models show a substantial level of family-level clustering of infant deaths and give evidence for the association between rhythm of childbearing and previous experience of infant mortality at the family-level, and the survival chances of a given infant. At least in nineteenth century Geneva, family-level frailty in child mortality however does not seem to depend on birth spacing.
Revue Quetelet/Quetelet Journal, 2013
This paper investigates the reproductive life course of native and immigrant women in 19th centur... more This paper investigates the reproductive life course of native and immigrant women in 19th century Antwerp and Geneva, two contexts characterized by rapid population growth, urbanization and immigration. Using data from the COR*sample of Antwerp and from a family reconstitution of Geneva, we analyze individual family life courses in a sequential data perspective. We conceptualize the reproductive life course as a sequence of 4 states: the phase between the entry into reproductive age and marriage (1), the interval between marriage and first birth (2), the period of childbearing (3) and the phase of completed family size (4). The analysis shows an opposition between local immigrants (characterized by long childbearing periods) and long-distance immigrants (longer periods of completed family size) in Antwerp. In Geneva, natives married at a much younger age than immigrants, which explains why their life course was characterized by a longer period of completed family size.
The History of the Family, 2013
The History of the Family, 2013
Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of individuals' socialization in a given demographic... more Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of individuals' socialization in a given demographic context on their later reproductive behavior in 19th century Geneva. To assess this socialization effect on the fertility of first generation immigrants, I combine family reconstitution data with Coale's aggregate indexes of marital fertility. I then run two-level Poisson regression models predicting age-specific fertility rates as a function of individual characteristics at the lower level and as a function of province-level fertility at the higher ...
Histoire & mesure, 2005
Ce document a été généré automatiquement le 19 avril 2019. © Éditions de l'EHESS L'endogamie matr... more Ce document a été généré automatiquement le 19 avril 2019. © Éditions de l'EHESS L'endogamie matrimoniale dans les villes suisses, 1880-1930 10 Genève, enfin, est jusqu'aux années 1870 la principale ville de Suisse. Pôle économique et financier européen depuis l'époque moderne, à partir des années 1860, elle doit sa croissance démographique de plus en plus à une intensification des courants migratoires alimentés par sa vivacité économique, basée essentiellement sur l'industrie mécanique de précision, la bijouterie, l'industrie touristique et une variété d'industries légères. En 1860,
status: …, 2011
KULeuven. ...
Introduction Dans la littérature démographique récente, toute une série de travaux ont étudié la ... more Introduction Dans la littérature démographique récente, toute une série de travaux ont étudié la transmission intergénérationnelle de comportements reproductifs et familiaux dans les populations contemporaines et historiques (van Bavel et Kok, 2009; Reher et al., 2008; Murphy et Knudsen, 2002; Murphy, 1999; Axinn et al., 1994). Cette question est particulièrement intéressante dans un contexte transitionnel. Dans un contexte démographique pré-transitionnel, caractérisé par un haut degré de normativité, les ...
status: published, 2012
Abstract: A longitudinal approach is used to describe and explain the integration process of diff... more Abstract: A longitudinal approach is used to describe and explain the integration process of different groups of migrants in Antwerp and Stockholm (1846-1926) in terms of access to marriage and reproduction. In this way we want to get a better idea about the factors which facilitated or hampered the integration of migrants upon arrival in two different Western European port cities during the latter part of the nineteenth and the early twentieth century. Contrary to the expectations, the results of the discrete time event history analyses show ...
Our prices are recommended retail prices and are exclusive of shipping costs. We reserve the righ... more Our prices are recommended retail prices and are exclusive of shipping costs. We reserve the right to alter prices. We supply to libraries at a discount of 5%. * incl. VAT - only applies to Germany and EU customers without VAT Reg No ** incl. VAT - only applies to Austria Peter Lang - International Academic Publishers Moosstrasse 1 - POB 350 CH-2542 Pieterlen / Switzerland ... Tel. ++41 (0)32 376 17 17 - Fax ++41 (0)32 376 17 27 e-mail: [email protected] Website: www.peterlang.com ... La reproduction démographique à Genève au 19e siècle
Abstract: A longitudinal approach is used to describe and explain the integration process of diff... more Abstract: A longitudinal approach is used to describe and explain the integration process of different groups of migrants in Antwerp and Stockholm (1846-1926) in terms of access to marriage and reproduction. In this way we want to get a better idea about the factors which facilitated or hampered the integration of migrants upon arrival in two different Western European port cities during the latter part of the nineteenth and the early twentieth century.
Abstract This paper investigates the reproductive life course of native and immigrant women in 19... more Abstract This paper investigates the reproductive life course of native and immigrant women in 19th century Antwerp and Geneva, two contexts characterized by rapid population growth, urbanization and immigration. Using data from the COR*-sample of Antwerp and from a family reconstitution of Geneva, we analyze individual family life courses in a sequential data perspective.
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Papers by Reto Schumacher