This study utilises an exceptionally rich English administrative dataset, to estimate employment ... more This study utilises an exceptionally rich English administrative dataset, to estimate employment impacts from training voluntarily initiated by unemployed individuals. A Coarsened Exact Matching approach is adopted, in a dynamic evaluation framework, to estimate impacts up to 5 years from training start. We identify economically and statistically significant impacts, estimated separately for (i) all training starters, (ii) the partially, and (iii) fully treated. Investigation of possible endogenous selection into partial/full treatment, using distance to training provider as an instrumental variable, suggests inclusion of extensive employment and learning histories in a matching framework, justifies invocation of the conditional independence assumption for comparisons of full/partial treatment. The partially treated secure a return that is, on average, 2 percentage points lower than full treatment. Thus, an 'intention to treat' approach would not alter conclusions on the efficacy of training; but using the partially treated to estimate counterfactual outcomes risks understating returns.
In this paper we update the findings from Buscha and Urwin (2013), estimating separately the (i) ... more In this paper we update the findings from Buscha and Urwin (2013), estimating separately the (i) earnings, (ii) employment probability and (iii) probability of being on active benefits, for those who achieve their highest learning aim whilst studying at an English Further Education Institution (FEI), relative to those who have the same highest learning aim, but do not achieve. Estimates are obtained using the 2002-2012 ILR-WPLS administrative dataset, and the findings provide a robust estimate of the value added from each qualification, when held as an individual’s highest
This report considers the evidence for the business case for equality and diversity in private se... more This report considers the evidence for the business case for equality and diversity in private sector organisations. The aim is not to make the business case, but to assess the current evidence from academic journals and some key practitioner sources.
This exploratory research looks at variations in learners' employment and earnings across fur... more This exploratory research looks at variations in learners' employment and earnings across further education (FE) providers. The key aim is to identify: (a) the extent to which variation in average labour market outcomes across FE providers is observed; (2) the extent to which this analysis delivers robust indicators that could be used to investigate 'quality' or 'efficacy' across FE providers; and (3) what might be considered as next steps in the research. The majority of the report describes results from an econometric analysis that estimates value added, based on comparisons of achievers and non-achievers/drop-outs 'within' each provider. The assumption is that labour market outcomes from the non-achieving/drop-out group within each provider provide estimates of the counterfactual for 'the sort of achievers observed within a specific provider'.
This new research shows: 1 The economic value of providing discounted rental housing to key worke... more This new research shows: 1 The economic value of providing discounted rental housing to key workers is, on average, £27,000 per household. From this we have deducted the cost of providing it of c.£14,000. The net benefit to London’s economy per household is at least £12,500 per annum. 2 Although it is marginally cheaper to provide key worker housing in outer boroughs, there are significant costs to be offset – transport, time, etc, and these almost negate the benefits of doing so. And because costs of housing in outer boroughs are rising so quickly, the differential is disappearing. Wherever we look across London there is a problem of ‘affordable’ living. If we wish to avoid the ‘doughnut’ effect – evident in Paris – where the workforce is ‘ghettoised’ in an outer suburban ring, we need to make provision for key workers across London. Failure to do this will have serious implications for the London economy. 3 The approach to fixing rents in S106 agreements typically over-subsidises ...
The proliferating gig economy relies on online freelance marketplaces, which support relatively a... more The proliferating gig economy relies on online freelance marketplaces, which support relatively anonymous interactions through text-based messages. Informational asymmetries thus arise that can lead to exchange uncertainties between buyers and freelancers. Conventional marketing thought recommends reducing such uncertainty. However, uncertainty reduction and uncertainty management theories indicate that buyers and freelancers might benefit more from balancing—rather than reducing—uncertainty, such as by strategically adhering to or deviating from common communication principles. With dyadic analyses of calls for bids and bids from a leading online freelance marketplace, this study reveals that buyers attract more bids from freelancers when they provide moderate degrees of task information and concreteness, avoid sharing personal information, and limit the affective intensity of their communication. Freelancers’ bid success and price premiums increase when they mimic the degree of ta...
Previous work identifies good labour market returns for FE learners who gain qualifications at Fu... more Previous work identifies good labour market returns for FE learners who gain qualifications at Full Level 2 and above. Estimates of the returns to learning at ‘Below Level 2’ and ‘Thin Level 2’ - which include English and Maths qualifications - were positive but not so strong – though it should be noted that many of these qualifications are of a very short duration. This report presents the findings from a project that investigates labour market returns to these English and Maths qualifications, in two different situations: • Complementary Learning i.e. when combined with higher level qualifications • Highest Learning Aim - when they are studied as a person’s highest FE qualification (i.e. not taken with a higher qualification)
This provocation challenges the use of generational categories as a valid and useful basis for th... more This provocation challenges the use of generational categories as a valid and useful basis for the development of human resource management (HRM) research and practice. We present two provocations. First, that a focus solely on year of birth as a driver of attitudes, values and behaviours is wholly inadequate. Second, we go beyond existing empirical challenges to argue that any approach to the study of generations that focuses solely on generational categories should be abandoned. We consider the theoretical basis for generations, together with specific examples from empirical studies to show how the current reliance on largely unsubstantiated categories leaves even longitudinal studies unable to make an effective contribution to this field. We draw on cross-disciplinary insights to consider the implications for academic research and for HRM practice, showing how the current approach limits the usefulness of findings and suggesting a potential way forward.
Interest in generational diversity has exploded since the turn of the 21st century. While many re... more Interest in generational diversity has exploded since the turn of the 21st century. While many researchers are supportive of the concept of generations, a growing number have questioned the validity of the idea that people are different according to when they were born. In this article, we review recent work in the area and build on our own previous studies; which have been highly critical of extant empirical work. Many studies utilize cross-sectional data that do not allow investigation of generational difference; and even when appropriate data are used, the apriori assumption of 4 or 5 generational categories invalidates research findings. We present selected results from analyses we have undertaken to overcome these issues, and identify a more robust direction for the research. Essentially, the theoretical foundation for generational research has some validity, but the existence of generational differences has not been validly tested. We suggest that researchers must investigate whether any cohort-specific differences in attitudes are apparent, and where, if at all, these can be "cut" to identify distinct "structural breaks" between generations. Only by building a body of knowledge, across different social, and economic phenomena will we obtain a true picture of where generational differences lie.
The main focus of this report is on the economic value of a year of Acas services delivered durin... more The main focus of this report is on the economic value of a year of Acas services delivered during the 2014/15 operational year. The starting point for the analysis in this report is the prior review of the economic impact of Acas in 2007 (Meadows), which is based on Acas activities delivered in 2005/06. This has been updated in line with key principles of cost-benefit analysis and tackles a number of issues flagged in subsequent reviews with a particular focus on questions of the counterfactual, impacts beyond the first year of Acas intervention, and of displacement and substitution. In addition, new estimates have been provided in service areas that were not included in the 2007 study as well as in new areas of Acas activity, such as new digital channels of service delivery. Whereas previous economic impact analyses were estimated to account for around 70 per cent of Acas service delivery, this report considers approximately 90 per cent of Acas activities
This study presents findings from the latest in a series of investigations that shed new light on... more This study presents findings from the latest in a series of investigations that shed new light on the value of learning in Further Education (FE) in England, using matched NPD/ILR/WPLS administrative data. This programme of analysis has uncovered good returns to learning at all levels of FE, and challenges previous findings from survey-based studies that estimated insignificant, or even negative, returns to learning at Level 2 and below (for instance, NVQ2 and NVQ1). This report takes this programme of investigation further, with a detailed study of the role that FE plays in the education pathways of young people, as they make the transition from (i) school-to-work; (ii) to Higher Education; and (iii) to other forms of skill acquisition, such as Apprenticeships. We begin with a discussion of findings from the work carried out prior to this study; and then present an analysis showing FE to be an essential education pathway through which many individuals have the opportunity for social mobility -as those from disadvantaged backgrounds recover from poor performance in the state school system, using FE as a route to Higher Education and other forms of skill acquisition. Finally, we provide evidence that some of the largest earnings returns are secured by those learners born to the highest levels of disadvantage -many of whom would be unemployed, inactive or in low productivity employment, without the opportunity for skills acquisition in FE. FE caters to the most disadvantaged, and in many categories of learning we consider, it boosts their productivity by the largest amount.
provide a possible explanation for previous contradictory evidence and underline the importance o... more provide a possible explanation for previous contradictory evidence and underline the importance of new firms or start-ups in the process of job creation. The suggestion is that the smallest firms (of less than 20 workers) have disproportionately high rates of job creation (relative to their total employment share), but also have disproportionately large job destruction rates. Once one accounts for firm age, any firm-size/job-creation relationship disappears. Furthermore, the importance of firm-age in explaining job creation rates seems primarily driven by the higher rates of creation and destruction amongst these youngest (i.e. new) business start-ups.
The Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street Westminster London sw1p 3lb in association ... more The Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street Westminster London sw1p 3lb in association with Profile Books Ltd The mission of the Institute of Economic Affairs is to improve public understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society, with particular reference to the role of markets in solving economic and social problems.
Small businesses in the UK: new perspectives on evidence and policy
There is still no commonly agreed theoretical or empirical framework for analysis of the role tha... more There is still no commonly agreed theoretical or empirical framework for analysis of the role that the small business sector plays in the economy. This report draws on a variety of evidence to help build a shared understanding of this role and the possible impacts that a range of government policies have on the small business sector.
This study utilises an exceptionally rich English administrative dataset, to estimate employment ... more This study utilises an exceptionally rich English administrative dataset, to estimate employment impacts from training voluntarily initiated by unemployed individuals. A Coarsened Exact Matching approach is adopted, in a dynamic evaluation framework, to estimate impacts up to 5 years from training start. We identify economically and statistically significant impacts, estimated separately for (i) all training starters, (ii) the partially, and (iii) fully treated. Investigation of possible endogenous selection into partial/full treatment, using distance to training provider as an instrumental variable, suggests inclusion of extensive employment and learning histories in a matching framework, justifies invocation of the conditional independence assumption for comparisons of full/partial treatment. The partially treated secure a return that is, on average, 2 percentage points lower than full treatment. Thus, an 'intention to treat' approach would not alter conclusions on the efficacy of training; but using the partially treated to estimate counterfactual outcomes risks understating returns.
In this paper we update the findings from Buscha and Urwin (2013), estimating separately the (i) ... more In this paper we update the findings from Buscha and Urwin (2013), estimating separately the (i) earnings, (ii) employment probability and (iii) probability of being on active benefits, for those who achieve their highest learning aim whilst studying at an English Further Education Institution (FEI), relative to those who have the same highest learning aim, but do not achieve. Estimates are obtained using the 2002-2012 ILR-WPLS administrative dataset, and the findings provide a robust estimate of the value added from each qualification, when held as an individual’s highest
This report considers the evidence for the business case for equality and diversity in private se... more This report considers the evidence for the business case for equality and diversity in private sector organisations. The aim is not to make the business case, but to assess the current evidence from academic journals and some key practitioner sources.
This exploratory research looks at variations in learners' employment and earnings across fur... more This exploratory research looks at variations in learners' employment and earnings across further education (FE) providers. The key aim is to identify: (a) the extent to which variation in average labour market outcomes across FE providers is observed; (2) the extent to which this analysis delivers robust indicators that could be used to investigate 'quality' or 'efficacy' across FE providers; and (3) what might be considered as next steps in the research. The majority of the report describes results from an econometric analysis that estimates value added, based on comparisons of achievers and non-achievers/drop-outs 'within' each provider. The assumption is that labour market outcomes from the non-achieving/drop-out group within each provider provide estimates of the counterfactual for 'the sort of achievers observed within a specific provider'.
This new research shows: 1 The economic value of providing discounted rental housing to key worke... more This new research shows: 1 The economic value of providing discounted rental housing to key workers is, on average, £27,000 per household. From this we have deducted the cost of providing it of c.£14,000. The net benefit to London’s economy per household is at least £12,500 per annum. 2 Although it is marginally cheaper to provide key worker housing in outer boroughs, there are significant costs to be offset – transport, time, etc, and these almost negate the benefits of doing so. And because costs of housing in outer boroughs are rising so quickly, the differential is disappearing. Wherever we look across London there is a problem of ‘affordable’ living. If we wish to avoid the ‘doughnut’ effect – evident in Paris – where the workforce is ‘ghettoised’ in an outer suburban ring, we need to make provision for key workers across London. Failure to do this will have serious implications for the London economy. 3 The approach to fixing rents in S106 agreements typically over-subsidises ...
The proliferating gig economy relies on online freelance marketplaces, which support relatively a... more The proliferating gig economy relies on online freelance marketplaces, which support relatively anonymous interactions through text-based messages. Informational asymmetries thus arise that can lead to exchange uncertainties between buyers and freelancers. Conventional marketing thought recommends reducing such uncertainty. However, uncertainty reduction and uncertainty management theories indicate that buyers and freelancers might benefit more from balancing—rather than reducing—uncertainty, such as by strategically adhering to or deviating from common communication principles. With dyadic analyses of calls for bids and bids from a leading online freelance marketplace, this study reveals that buyers attract more bids from freelancers when they provide moderate degrees of task information and concreteness, avoid sharing personal information, and limit the affective intensity of their communication. Freelancers’ bid success and price premiums increase when they mimic the degree of ta...
Previous work identifies good labour market returns for FE learners who gain qualifications at Fu... more Previous work identifies good labour market returns for FE learners who gain qualifications at Full Level 2 and above. Estimates of the returns to learning at ‘Below Level 2’ and ‘Thin Level 2’ - which include English and Maths qualifications - were positive but not so strong – though it should be noted that many of these qualifications are of a very short duration. This report presents the findings from a project that investigates labour market returns to these English and Maths qualifications, in two different situations: • Complementary Learning i.e. when combined with higher level qualifications • Highest Learning Aim - when they are studied as a person’s highest FE qualification (i.e. not taken with a higher qualification)
This provocation challenges the use of generational categories as a valid and useful basis for th... more This provocation challenges the use of generational categories as a valid and useful basis for the development of human resource management (HRM) research and practice. We present two provocations. First, that a focus solely on year of birth as a driver of attitudes, values and behaviours is wholly inadequate. Second, we go beyond existing empirical challenges to argue that any approach to the study of generations that focuses solely on generational categories should be abandoned. We consider the theoretical basis for generations, together with specific examples from empirical studies to show how the current reliance on largely unsubstantiated categories leaves even longitudinal studies unable to make an effective contribution to this field. We draw on cross-disciplinary insights to consider the implications for academic research and for HRM practice, showing how the current approach limits the usefulness of findings and suggesting a potential way forward.
Interest in generational diversity has exploded since the turn of the 21st century. While many re... more Interest in generational diversity has exploded since the turn of the 21st century. While many researchers are supportive of the concept of generations, a growing number have questioned the validity of the idea that people are different according to when they were born. In this article, we review recent work in the area and build on our own previous studies; which have been highly critical of extant empirical work. Many studies utilize cross-sectional data that do not allow investigation of generational difference; and even when appropriate data are used, the apriori assumption of 4 or 5 generational categories invalidates research findings. We present selected results from analyses we have undertaken to overcome these issues, and identify a more robust direction for the research. Essentially, the theoretical foundation for generational research has some validity, but the existence of generational differences has not been validly tested. We suggest that researchers must investigate whether any cohort-specific differences in attitudes are apparent, and where, if at all, these can be "cut" to identify distinct "structural breaks" between generations. Only by building a body of knowledge, across different social, and economic phenomena will we obtain a true picture of where generational differences lie.
The main focus of this report is on the economic value of a year of Acas services delivered durin... more The main focus of this report is on the economic value of a year of Acas services delivered during the 2014/15 operational year. The starting point for the analysis in this report is the prior review of the economic impact of Acas in 2007 (Meadows), which is based on Acas activities delivered in 2005/06. This has been updated in line with key principles of cost-benefit analysis and tackles a number of issues flagged in subsequent reviews with a particular focus on questions of the counterfactual, impacts beyond the first year of Acas intervention, and of displacement and substitution. In addition, new estimates have been provided in service areas that were not included in the 2007 study as well as in new areas of Acas activity, such as new digital channels of service delivery. Whereas previous economic impact analyses were estimated to account for around 70 per cent of Acas service delivery, this report considers approximately 90 per cent of Acas activities
This study presents findings from the latest in a series of investigations that shed new light on... more This study presents findings from the latest in a series of investigations that shed new light on the value of learning in Further Education (FE) in England, using matched NPD/ILR/WPLS administrative data. This programme of analysis has uncovered good returns to learning at all levels of FE, and challenges previous findings from survey-based studies that estimated insignificant, or even negative, returns to learning at Level 2 and below (for instance, NVQ2 and NVQ1). This report takes this programme of investigation further, with a detailed study of the role that FE plays in the education pathways of young people, as they make the transition from (i) school-to-work; (ii) to Higher Education; and (iii) to other forms of skill acquisition, such as Apprenticeships. We begin with a discussion of findings from the work carried out prior to this study; and then present an analysis showing FE to be an essential education pathway through which many individuals have the opportunity for social mobility -as those from disadvantaged backgrounds recover from poor performance in the state school system, using FE as a route to Higher Education and other forms of skill acquisition. Finally, we provide evidence that some of the largest earnings returns are secured by those learners born to the highest levels of disadvantage -many of whom would be unemployed, inactive or in low productivity employment, without the opportunity for skills acquisition in FE. FE caters to the most disadvantaged, and in many categories of learning we consider, it boosts their productivity by the largest amount.
provide a possible explanation for previous contradictory evidence and underline the importance o... more provide a possible explanation for previous contradictory evidence and underline the importance of new firms or start-ups in the process of job creation. The suggestion is that the smallest firms (of less than 20 workers) have disproportionately high rates of job creation (relative to their total employment share), but also have disproportionately large job destruction rates. Once one accounts for firm age, any firm-size/job-creation relationship disappears. Furthermore, the importance of firm-age in explaining job creation rates seems primarily driven by the higher rates of creation and destruction amongst these youngest (i.e. new) business start-ups.
The Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street Westminster London sw1p 3lb in association ... more The Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street Westminster London sw1p 3lb in association with Profile Books Ltd The mission of the Institute of Economic Affairs is to improve public understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society, with particular reference to the role of markets in solving economic and social problems.
Small businesses in the UK: new perspectives on evidence and policy
There is still no commonly agreed theoretical or empirical framework for analysis of the role tha... more There is still no commonly agreed theoretical or empirical framework for analysis of the role that the small business sector plays in the economy. This report draws on a variety of evidence to help build a shared understanding of this role and the possible impacts that a range of government policies have on the small business sector.
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Papers by Peter Urwin