Paul Waddell

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Ashraf M. Salama

Northumbria University

PROFESSOR Sr Ts DR ZULHABRI ISMAIL

Universiti Teknologi Mara

David Seamon

Kansas State University

Pelin Tan

Batman University

Rolando-Arturo Cubillos-González

Universidad Católica de Colombia

Gideon Kossoff

Carnegie Mellon University

Amir Mosavi

German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence

Franca Trubiano

University of Pennsylvania

Aslihan Ünlü

Ozyegin University

Khaled Tarabieh

American University in Cairo

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Papers by Paul Waddell

Theoretical background: models of urban spatial structure

UrbanCanvas: a collaborative platform for informed planning

Assessment of Regional Transit Accessibility in the San Francisco Bay Area of California with UrbanAccess

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017

Accessibility is an important metric in regional transportation and land use planning and as a co... more Accessibility is an important metric in regional transportation and land use planning and as a component in equity analyses. Accessibility in the San Francisco Bay Area of California was characterized with a new multimodal network accessibility tool, UrbanAccess. Accessibility was measured with open pedestrian and operational schedule transit network data at the Census block level across a large metropolitan extent. In addition, a framework was developed to assess changes in accessibility that resulted from alternative transit network structures. Results indicated that accessibility to jobs in the Bay Area was relatively high by walking and by taking transit. However, accessibility varied significantly by annual household income and geography. Disparities in job accessibility were most pronounced between Census blocks that were in poverty and Census blocks that were not in poverty.

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UrbanAccess: Generalized Methodology for Measuring Regional Accessibility with an Integrated Pedestrian and Transit Network

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017

Measures of accessibility have long been an important metric in regional transportation planning ... more Measures of accessibility have long been an important metric in regional transportation planning and modeling. However, new methods are needed to provide computationally efficient, multiscale, free, transparent, and customizable tools that harness open and disparate sources of transportation network data at fine spatial resolution over large geographic extents. This research presents a new open source tool, UrbanAccess, which uses a generalized and scalable methodology to measure transit accessibility with a multimodal network comprising both pedestrian and operational schedule transit networks at a fine spatial scale over large metropolitan extents. A typical use for this tool is illustrated in a case study that characterizes regional transit accessibility in the San Francisco Bay Area in California.

Dynamic simulation of real estate development and land prices within an integrated land use and transportation model system

Paper length: 7500 words. (Text: 5,750 words; 5 Tables, 2 Figures: 1,750 words) Paper submitted: ... more

Agile Modeling for Urban and Environmental Systems: The Open Platform For Urban Simulation

The Open Platform for Urban Simulation (Opus) is a general framework for agile modeling in dynami... more The Open Platform for Urban Simulation (Opus) is a general framework for agile modeling in dynamic urban and environmental systems. It has been developed as a generalization of UrbanSim to provide a common and productive platform to enable modelers to rapidly develop and rene component models that can be integrated within a model system. The resulting system can then simulate complex interactions within and among the domains of real estate markets, transportation, land cover change, emissions and resource consumption. By leveraging existing open source software libraries and designing a highly modular framework for building, estimating and simulating from models of various types, Opus provides an open source toolbox for agile modeling.

A technical modeler's interface for urbansim, a system for integrated land use, transportation, and environmental modeling

International Conference on Digital Government Research, May 24, 2004

The complexity and diversity of government regulations make understanding the regulations a non-t... more The complexity and diversity of government regulations make understanding the regulations a non-trivial task. One of the issues is the existence of multiple sources of regulations and interpretive guides. In this work, we propose an information infrastructure for regulation analysis, which includes a document repository and tools for compliance assistance and similarity analysis. A regulatory repository is developed based on an XML format, and important features, such as concepts and measurements, are extracted using handcrafted rules and a text mining tool. Our framework provides compliance assistance using a reasoning tool based on First Order Predicate Calculus logic, where users are alerted of detected conflicts or otherwise compliance with the regulation. A relatedness analysis is performed by comparing the extracted features as well as structural and referential information from regulations. Examples of an electronic-rulemaking scenario and a compliance checking procedure are shown to demonstrate current capabilities of the prototype system.

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Network-Sensitive Transport Modeling Framework for Evaluating Impacts of Network Disruptions on Traveler Choices Under Varying Levels of User Information Provision

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board, 2013

There is considerable interest in the application of active traffic demand management (ATDM) and ... more There is considerable interest in the application of active traffic demand management (ATDM) and traveler information systems strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of congestion and network disruptions. Such strategies and user information provision systems not only impact network performance through the modification of traveler route choices, but also through changes in the entire range of activity-travel choices such as activity generation, destination choice, mode choice, and time of day choice. The simulation of the impacts of alternative strategies on network performance therefore calls for the development and application of integrated modeling frameworks capable of reflecting the entire slate of activity-travel pattern adjustments that may occur in response to changes in network conditions and user information provision. This paper describes an integrated modeling framework wherein an activity-based travel demand model and a dynamic traffic assignment model are tightly coupled together with continuous information exchange between the models along the continuous time axis. The framework is enhanced to accommodate the possible impacts of alternative user information provision strategies on traveler choices and applied to a subregion in the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area to demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to network disruptions under alternative information provision scenarios. Model results are consistent with expectations and show that impacts of network disruption are substantially mitigated in the presence of traveler information systems. Further, the model results show that workers – who have more rigid work schedules and locations – are more greatly impacted by network disruptions than non-workers who do not have such constraints. Integrated modeling tools such as that described in this paper offer promise for evaluating emerging operational and policy strategies aimed at influencing traveler choices.

Integration of Parcel-Level Land Use Model and Activity-Based Travel Model

Transportation Research Board 87th Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board, 2008

This paper develops an integrated application of a land use model operating at a parcel level, in... more This paper develops an integrated application of a land use model operating at a parcel level, integrated with an activity-based travel model, and applied in San Francisco, California. The paper describes the specification and estimation of the microsimulation land use model, implemented using UrbanSim and the Open Platform for Urban Simulation (OPUS). In contrast with prior operational modeling applications that have used large zones or gridcells as spatial units of analysis, this application used parcels as the unit of analysis for real estate development, and buildings as the unit for location of households and businesses. Measures of accessibility are derived from the San Francisco activity-based travel model, and the predicted locations of households and business establishments are used to update the micro-level inputs needed for the activity-based travel model. Data used in the model include business establishments linked to parcels over several years, and a panel of parcels that allow modeling of parcel development over time. This paper describes several advances that have not been previously integrated in an operational model system, including the use of parcels and buildings as units of location for consumers and developers of real estate, the use of business establishments to represent economic activity, and the interfacing of this microsimulation land use model with a microsimulation activity-based travel model. Computational performance and development effort were found to be modest, with run times averaging 20 minutes per year, and the project development and implementation requiring approximately 6 person-months over one year.

Variations in Housing Price Depreciation: The “Taste for Newness” Across Heterogeneous Submarkets

Urban Geography, Apr 1, 1996

ABSTRACT

The Price of Reliable Accessibility

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board, 2014

The literature on induced demand suggests that transportation system interventions that improve t... more The literature on induced demand suggests that transportation system interventions that improve travel time not only result in short-term responses by travelers to shift modes, times of travel and routes, but also include longer-term inﬂuences on land use outcomes that further affect travel demand. This literature has not explored, however, whether improvements in travel time reliability might generate long-term impacts on real estate markets. Even the casual observer would likely agree that unreliable travel time to work is problematic, and a growing body of research has begun to measure the degree to which travelers value travel time reliability by analyzing their route or mode choices. To the authors' knowledge, however, no one has yet addressed the question of whether travel time reliability has longer-term effects beyond daily travel decisions, by inﬂuencing real estate market outcomes. Is travel time reliability valued enough by individuals, households, and ﬁrms to be capitalized into higher real estate prices and rents in locations with more reliable accessibility? Does reliability have enough value to inﬂuence long-term choices of households or ﬁrms regarding where they rent or purchase real estate? These are the questions explored in this research.

Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA) at Metropolitan-Scale for Agile Transportation Planning

arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 4, 2020

Abrupt changes in the environment, such as unforeseen events due to climate change, have triggere... more Abrupt changes in the environment, such as unforeseen events due to climate change, have triggered massive and precipitous changes in human mobility. The ability to quickly predict traffic patterns in different scenarios has become more urgent to support short-term operations and longterm transportation planning. This requires modeling entire metropolitan areas to recognize the upstream and downstream effects on the network. However, there is a well-known trade-off between increasing the level of detail of a model and decreasing computational performance. To achieve the level of detail required for traffic microsimulation, current implementations often compromise by simulating small spatial scales, and those that operate at larger scales often require access to expensive high performance computing systems or have computation times on the order of days or weeks that discourage productive research and real-time planning. This paper addresses the performance shortcomings by introducing a new platform, MANTA (Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment), for traffic microsimulation at the metropolitan-scale. MANTA employs a highly parallelized GPU implementation that is capable of running metropolitan-scale simulations within a few minutes. The runtime to simulate all morning trips, using half-second timesteps, for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area is just over four minutes, not including routing and initialization. This computational performance significantly improves the state of the art in large-scale traffic microsimulation. MANTA expands the capacity to analyze detailed travel patterns and travel choices of individuals for infrastructure planning.

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Developing and applying UrbanSim, a system for simulating urban land use, transportation, and environmental impacts

International Conference on Digital Government Research, May 18, 2003

In this case study, we provide a brief overview of the UrbanSim project and its history, and then... more

Modeling land use, transportation, and environmental impacts

ABSTRACT

Integration of a Parcel-Level Land Use Model and an Activity-Based Travel Model

11th World Conference on Transport ResearchWorld Conference on Transport Research Society, 2007

Interactive design of urban spaces using geometrical and behavioral modeling

The main contribution of our work is in closing the loop between behavioral and geometrical model... more The main contribution of our work is in closing the loop between behavioral and geometrical modeling of cities. Editing of urban design variables is performed intuitively and visually using a graphical user interface. Any design variable can be constrained or changed. The design process uses an iterative dynamical system for reaching equilibrium: a state where the demands of behavioral modeling match those of geometrical modeling. 3D models are generated in a few seconds and conform to plausible urban behavior and urban geometry. Our framework includes an interactive agent-based behavioral modeling system as well as adaptive geometry generation algorithms. We demonstrate interactive and incremental design and editing for synthetic urban spaces spanning over 200 square kilometers.

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Manufacturing Location in a Polycentric Urban Area: A Study in the Composition and Attractiveness of Employment Subcenters

Urban Geography, May 1, 1993

... In our implementation of the cost-minimizing manufacturing firm's location decision betw... more ... In our implementation of the cost-minimizing manufacturing firm's location decision between employment centers in the ... The broad hypotheses to be tested are that such firms' location reflects systematic selection conditioned ... To do this, we implement the discrete choice model. ...

On Sustainability and Intergenerational Transfers with a Renewable Resource

Recent papers have examined sustainability in overlapping generations models with a nonrenewable ... more Recent papers have examined sustainability in overlapping generations models with a nonrenewable resource or a renewable resource with a fixed rate of regeneration. When the regeneration of the resource depends upon the resource stock, a competitive economy can generate a variety of outcomes, from resource exhaustion to inefficient over accumulation, depending upon the value of key parameters. Output shares, private discount factor, intergenerational transfers, and labor supply when old affect the steady-state equilibrium and therefore the implied social rate of time preference. In some cases, a nondecreasing utility requirement can be Pareto inefficient

The Influence of Demographics and Distance on Nonprofit Location

Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, Jun 1, 1997

This article investigates the relationship between socioeconomic characteristics and the provisio... more This article investigates the relationship between socioeconomic characteristics and the provision of nonprofit services for census block groups in Dallas County, Texas. We find that the number of health, education, and social service nonprofits in a given area is positively influenced by block group income, age, percentage minority, and racial heterogeneity, and negatively influenced by income heterogeneity and age heterogeneity. On further examination, we find a complex pattern of relationships between income and age and number of providers that suggests researchers should exercise caution when using these variables. Also, in all of our results the effects of the demographic variables are by far the strongest for nonprofits within one mile of the block group centroid; they weaken as they get farther from the centroid. This shows that nonprofits are most heavily influenced by the characteristics of the neighborhoods directly around them.

Reflecting Impacts of Systemwide Pricing Strategies in an Integrated Continuous-Time Prism-Constrained Activity-Travel Simulator of Demand and Supply

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board, 2013

Pricing policies are increasingly being considered in urban areas around the world to better mana... more Pricing policies are increasingly being considered in urban areas around the world to better manage travel demand, mitigate adverse impacts of automobile travel, and raise financial resources for much needed infrastructure development. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of applying an integrated microsimulation model of activity-travel demand and dynamic traffic assignment for analyzing the impact of pricing policies on the entire range of activity-travel choices. The model system is based on a dynamic integration framework wherein the activity-travel simulator and the dynamic traffic assignment model communicate with one another along the continuous time axis so that trips are routed and simulated on the network as and when they are generated. This framework is applied to the analysis of a systemwide pricing policy for a small case study site to demonstrate how the model responds to various levels of pricing. A generalized travel time measure that accounts for the pricing effect and reflects population heterogeneity in values of time is used to simulate activity-travel choices, including both activity generation and destination choice, in a prism-constrained activity-travel simulation paradigm. Case study results show that trip lengths, travel time expenditures, and vehicle miles of travel are impacted to a greater degree than activity-trip rates and activity durations as a result of pricing policies. Measures of change output by the model are found to be consistent with elasticity estimates reported in the literature, suggesting that the model is able to reflect adjustments in activity-travel behavior in response to pricing policies.

Theoretical background: models of urban spatial structure

UrbanCanvas: a collaborative platform for informed planning

Assessment of Regional Transit Accessibility in the San Francisco Bay Area of California with UrbanAccess

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017

Download

UrbanAccess: Generalized Methodology for Measuring Regional Accessibility with an Integrated Pedestrian and Transit Network

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017

Dynamic simulation of real estate development and land prices within an integrated land use and transportation model system

Paper length: 7500 words. (Text: 5,750 words; 5 Tables, 2 Figures: 1,750 words) Paper submitted: ... more

Agile Modeling for Urban and Environmental Systems: The Open Platform For Urban Simulation

A technical modeler's interface for urbansim, a system for integrated land use, transportation, and environmental modeling

International Conference on Digital Government Research, May 24, 2004

Download

Network-Sensitive Transport Modeling Framework for Evaluating Impacts of Network Disruptions on Traveler Choices Under Varying Levels of User Information Provision

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board, 2013

Integration of Parcel-Level Land Use Model and Activity-Based Travel Model

Transportation Research Board 87th Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board, 2008

Variations in Housing Price Depreciation: The “Taste for Newness” Across Heterogeneous Submarkets

Urban Geography, Apr 1, 1996

ABSTRACT

The Price of Reliable Accessibility

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board, 2014

Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA) at Metropolitan-Scale for Agile Transportation Planning

arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 4, 2020

Download

Developing and applying UrbanSim, a system for simulating urban land use, transportation, and environmental impacts

International Conference on Digital Government Research, May 18, 2003

In this case study, we provide a brief overview of the UrbanSim project and its history, and then... more

Modeling land use, transportation, and environmental impacts

ABSTRACT

Integration of a Parcel-Level Land Use Model and an Activity-Based Travel Model

11th World Conference on Transport ResearchWorld Conference on Transport Research Society, 2007

Interactive design of urban spaces using geometrical and behavioral modeling

Download

Manufacturing Location in a Polycentric Urban Area: A Study in the Composition and Attractiveness of Employment Subcenters

Urban Geography, May 1, 1993

On Sustainability and Intergenerational Transfers with a Renewable Resource

The Influence of Demographics and Distance on Nonprofit Location

Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, Jun 1, 1997

Reflecting Impacts of Systemwide Pricing Strategies in an Integrated Continuous-Time Prism-Constrained Activity-Travel Simulator of Demand and Supply

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board, 2013

Paul Waddell

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