Hazard assessment for gas emission and flank landslides at Albano crater lake (Rome)
<p>Repeated flooding episodes occurred from the crater lake of Albano until 398 B.C... more <p>Repeated flooding episodes occurred from the crater lake of Albano until 398 B.C. These floods were probably caused by sudden injection of gas and warm waters on the lake bottom, or also by the overturn of the lake which would have brought to the surface the deep water rich in CO<sub>2</sub>. Since several years, we have been monitoring the crater lake chemical composition as well as its physico-chemical parameters and dissolved gas content, in order to assess evidences of possible deep fluid input in the lake water. The concentration of dissolved gases, and their isotopic composition (d<sup>13</sup>C<sub>TDIC</sub>, <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He) suggest the presence of deep gases (CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub>) within the lake bottom layer. However, the total pressure of dissolved gases is presently, at any depth, much lower than the hydrostatic pressure. If, for any reason, a significant volume of deep water should rise to the surface, only limited phenomena of gas exsolution are to be expected. A density variation of shallow lake water due to cooling, in case of heavy rainfall in harsh winters (T<8.5°C), may produce water overturns. Such phenomena, as long as they happen with a certain frequency, would prevent the accumulation of dangerous quantities of CO<sub>2</sub> in the deepest lake water strata. Apart from a volcanic unrest, the most dangerous condition is the occurrence of seismic swarms with hypocentres in the Lake Albano area, which could lead to an increase in the influx of hot gases and fluids in the lake. Currently, the conditions for a rapid release of significant quantities of CO<sub>2</sub> from Lake Albano do not exist. To improve the knowledge of the Lake Albano  water circulation, we investigated also the isotopic <sup>87</sup>Sr/<sup>86</sup>Sr composition of the lake water, comparing the results with those of the rocks hosting the aquifers. Results indicate that Lake Albano water samples well fit a binary mixing of a high <sup>87</sup>Sr/<sup>86</sup>Sr ratios end-member (Colli Albani volcanites) and a low ratio end-member (carbonate basement) in a proportion of 75% and 25% respectively. Moreover, the landslide hazard of the internal slopes of Lake Albano has been assessed using Ordinary Least Squares and Empirical Likehood Ratio modelling functions. The presence of numerous dwellings and recreational activities along the internal slopes of the crater lake, makes the area of potentially-high risk, both because of the inner intense slope instability and for possible secondary effects due to tsunami waves that might be generated by the impact of sliding subaerial masses on the lake surface or by sub-aqueous landslides.</p>
Soil CO2 flux monitoring of the ongoing Vulcano crisis
<p>La Fossa volcano on Vulcano island is the type-location for Volcanian eruptions.... more <p>La Fossa volcano on Vulcano island is the type-location for Volcanian eruptions. Last eruption dates back to 1888-’90. Since then, the quiescent state of La Fossa has been affected both by persistent fumarolic activity and by diffuse CO2 degassing either at the crater and in areas on the flanks (Forgia vecchia) at the base (Palizzi) of the cone, but also in inhabited areas of Vulcano porto (Levante beach, Faraglione). Normal quiescence has been punctuated by potential unrest crises mainly characterized by increase in magmatic degassing, in fumarole temperatures and in diffuse CO2 degassing. We have been monitoring the diffuse degassing area of La Fossa crater since 1995 and Palizzi, Levante beach and Vulcano porto zones since 2004.</p> <p>The ongoing crisis started in 2021 and showed a huge unprecedented increase in fumarolic degassing associated to ground deformation and episodic anomalous seismicity. For monitoring purposes, we performed since October 2021 two general surveys at the crater of La Fossa (soil CO2 flux and temperature), monthly surveys of diffuse soil CO2 flux in the areas of Palizzi, Levante Beach, Forgia vecchia and an extensive CO2 flux survey (~1000 measurements over 1 km2) in the inhabitated area of Volcano Porto in October 2021. From this wide survey we identified a new diffuse-degassing structure which was apparently inactive during the most recent unrest crises. Since November 2021, this area has been monthly surveyed too. This degassing structure is associated to shallow aquifer thermalism and the area is spotted by some mofetes. During the 1988-’93 crisis, it has been the site of some lethal accidents to animals caused by exposure to high CO2 concentration in air. There have been accidents during this crisis too, with the death of some cats and many birds caused by lethal concentrations of CO2 inside the yard of a house. Fortunately, there were no human casualties due to the prompt evacuation of the zone.</p> <p>Monthly repetition of soil CO2 flux from the target areas, showed that, at the early stage of the crisis, diffuse CO2 degassing equalled or even exceeded the high-flux rates measured during the previous crisis of 2004-’05 both at the crater area and at the crater base. In 2022-‘23 soil CO2 fluxes have slowly decreased, but the pre-crisis conditions have not yet been reached.</p>
The ASTARTE Paleotsunami deposits database - NEAM region
The EU project ASTARTE aims at developing a higher level of tsunami hazard assessment in the Nort... more The EU project ASTARTE aims at developing a higher level of tsunami hazard assessment in the North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas (NEAM) region by a combination of field work, experimental work, numerical modeling and technical development. The project is a cooperative work of 26 institutes from 16 countries and links together the description of past tsunamigenic events, the identification and characterization of tsunami sources, the assessment of the impact of such events, and the development of adequate resilience and risks mitigation strategies. The ASTARTE project includes a web-based database on Paleotsunami deposits. It has been implemented with the purpose to be the future information repository for tsunami research in Europe, integrating the existing official scientific reports and peer reviewed papers on these topics. The database will be updated every 24 months. http://www.astarte-project.eu
Photographic collection of the coseismic geological effects originated by the 24th August 2016, Amatrice (Central Italy) seismic sequence
We present a collection of pictures showing the geological effects produced in the natural or in ... more We present a collection of pictures showing the geological effects produced in the natural or in the built environment by the 2016 Amatrice earthquake sequence in Central Italy. The sequence hit a relatively wide area straddling the conterminous regions of Lazio, Abruzzo, Umbria and Marche, causing almost 300 deaths, thousands of injured and more than 3000 displaced people, severe damage (up to X MCS intensity) of a number of historical centres, and an estimated economic toll of more than 4 billion Euros. The August 24th MW 6.0 mainshock occurred ~1 km west of Accumoli on a ~NW-striking, SW-dipping normal fault; it was followed one hour later by a strong aftershock (MW 5.4) located 4 km east of Norcia. The Emergeo Working Group surveyed a ~750 km2 large area, recording more than 3200 observations of several types of coseismic effects: fractures (i.e. small surface open cracks with ā¤1 cm displacement), ruptures (i.e. surface cracks with both vertical and horizontal displacements >...
The transfer of information from a 1:25.000 geological database to the printing of a 1:50,000 geo... more The transfer of information from a 1:25.000 geological database to the printing of a 1:50,000 geological map sheet is a major problem in geological map production. It relates mainly to the greater detail of field information archived in the database with respect to that needed at a smaller representation scale. This research is focused on a new implementation of a geological database scheme that allows a digital version of the rules to be used by geologists and cartographers in the generalization process. Additionally, a system to avoid overcrowding of symbols is prototyped. A review of the major works on multi-scale databases and on the concepts of categories and hierarchies has influenced the generalization model proposed for multi-representation. Geographic Information Systems provide the means to carry out the necessary operations. I would like to thank my supervisors, Professor Adrian A. Hopgood, who patiently analysed the ideas presented in this thesis when they first evolved and who provided valuable guidance as the work matured, and Professor Andrea G. Fabbri, for the interesting discussions, the valuable comments, advice and support and especially for proofreading this thesis. Chapter 6 of this work is part of a joint research project carried out at the Geological Survey of Canada with the support of a NATO Advanced grant. I would like to thank Dr. Boyan Brodaric, supervisor of the research project, who has introduced me to research in automatic generalisation of geographic information and of geological databases and have provided valuable comments and material for this chapter of the work. During my studies and work on this thesis I have had frequent contacts with the researchers of the Italian National Geological Survey. I would like to thank them and especially Architect Domenico Tacchia for his suggestions and useful advices and Mr. Valerio Vitale for is useful help. Finally, I would like to thank my family for encouragement during this work and for helping me avoid drowning in thoughts about research.
World Catalog of Earthquake Rotated Objects (EROs)
The World Catalog of Earthquake Rotated Objects (EROs) is composed of 2254 EROs originated during... more The World Catalog of Earthquake Rotated Objects (EROs) is composed of 2254 EROs originated during 213 earthquakes occurred between 1349 and 2018. The EROs Catalog is organized into two different datasets that report the most important parameters and informations about the source earthquakes and about the observed EROs, respectively. The seismic event dataset (Events - red stars) reports the parameters of earthquakes (magnitude, intensity, focal mechanism etc) from which EROs observations are used. The EROs dataset (Observations - yellow dots) lists several parameters and data (epicentral distance, type of object, sense of rotation etc) associated with each ERO observation. It also contains the complete reference list for each seismic event, including the citation associated with the EROs observations. When using data from the EROs Catalog please cite the following papers: Cucci L., A. Tertulliani and A.M Lombardi (2016). The first World Catalog of Earthquake-Rotated Objects (EROs), ...
A new photographic dataset of the coseismic geological effects originated by the Mw5.9 Visso and Mw6.5 Norcia earthquakes (26th and 30th October 2016, Central Italy)
The transfer of information from a 1:25.000 geological database to the printing of a 1:50,000 geo... more The transfer of information from a 1:25.000 geological database to the printing of a 1:50,000 geological map sheet is a major problem in geological map production. It relates mainly to the greater detail of field information archived in the database with respect to that needed at a smaller representation scale. This research is focused on a new implementation of a geological database scheme that allows a digital version of the rules to be used by geologists and cartographers in the generalization process. Additionally, a system to avoid overcrowding of symbols is prototyped. A review of the major works on multi-scale databases and on the concepts of categories and hierarchies has influenced the generalization model proposed for multi-representation. Geographic Information Systems provide the means to carry out the necessary operations. The proposed system is based on the application of conventional and artificial intelligence computer techniques for the production of digital geologi...
Comparing Patterns of Spatial Relationships for Susceptibility Prediction of Landslide Occurrences
Open image in new window This contribution proposes a cautious way of constructing the susceptibi... more Open image in new window This contribution proposes a cautious way of constructing the susceptibility classes obtained from favourability modeling of landslide occurrences. It is based on the ranks of the numerical values obtained by the modelling. Such ranks can be displayed in the form of histograms, cumulative curves, and prediction patterns resembling maps. A number of models have been proposed and in this contribution the following will be compared in terms of their respective rankings for equal area classes: fuzzy set function, empirical likelihood ratio, linear and logistic regression, and Bayesian prediction function. The analyses performed and contrasted exemplify a generalized methodology for comparing predictions that should allow evaluating prediction patterns from any model. Unfortunately, many applications in the scientific literature use methods of characterizing prediction quality that make comparison hard or impossible. A database from a study area in the Mountain C...
This contribution analyses the spatial support of sampling points used to express the presence or... more This contribution analyses the spatial support of sampling points used to express the presence or absence of NO3Ė pollution in the water table. A spatial database constructed for the assessment of ground water vulnerability is re-analysed with a different predictive strategy. In practice, a case study area surrounding the city of Milan in northern Italy becomes an opportunity to point at a very general prediction modelling problem in which the basic direct evidence of a process is obtained only by sampling with point like measurements of nitrate concentration, as the ones from drill holes or water wells. The main questions are: āWhat is the functional spatial support for the modelling?ā and āWhat happens if different spatial supports are assumed?ā The answers to these questions are counterintuitive. Over the area of study of about 2,000 km2, the distribution of 305 water wells delimits a training area in which 133 wells are considered as impacted by nitrate pollution, i.e., direct s...
EU project ASTARTE aimed at developing a higher level of tsunami hazard assessment in the NorthEa... more EU project ASTARTE aimed at developing a higher level of tsunami hazard assessment in the NorthEastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAM) region by a combination of field work, experimental work, numerical modeling and technical development. The project was a cooperative work of 26 institutes from 16 countries and linked together the description of past tsunamigenic events, the identification and characterization of tsunami sources, the calculation of the impact of such events, and the development of adequate resilience and risks mitigation strategies (http://www.astarte-project.eu/). Within ASTARTE, a web-based database on Paleotsunami Deposits in the NEAM area was created with the purpose to be the future information repository for tsunami research in the broad region. The aim of the project is the integration of every existing official scientific reports and peer reviewed papers on this topic. The database, which archives information and detailed data crucial for tsunami modeling, will be updated on new entries every 12 months. A relational database managed by ArcGIS for Desktop 10.x software has been implemented. One of the final goals of the project is the public sharing of the archived dataset through a web-based map service that will allow visualizing, querying, analyzing, and interpreting the dataset. The interactive map service is hosted by ArcGIS Online and will deploy the cloud capabilities of the portal. Any interested users will be able to access the online GIS resources through any Internet browser or specific apps that run on desktop machines, smartphones, or tablets and will be able to use the analytical tools, key tasks, and workflows of the service. We will present the database structure (characterized by the presence of two main tables: the Site table and the Event table) and topics as well as their ArcGIS Online version. To date, a total of 151 sites and 220 tsunami evidence have been recorded within the ASTARTE database.
This contribution exposes the relative uncertainties associated with prediction patterns of lands... more This contribution exposes the relative uncertainties associated with prediction patterns of landslide susceptibility. The patterns are based on relationships between direct and indirect spatial evidence of landslide occurrences. In a spatial database constructed for the modeling, direct evidence is the presence of landslide trigger areas, while indirect evidence is the presence of corresponding multivariate context in the form of digital maps. Five mathematical modeling functions are applied to capture and integrate evidence, indirect and direct, for separating landslide-presence areas from the areas of landslide assumed absence. Empirical likelihood ratios are used first to represent the spatial relationships. These are then combined by the models into prediction scores, ordered, equal-area ranked, displayed, and synthesized as prediction-rate curves. A critical task is assessing how uncertainty levels vary across the different prediction patterns, i.e., the modeling results visual...
Estimation of the geothermal potential of the Caldara di Manziana site in the Sabatini Volcanic District (central Italy) by integrating geochemical data and 3D-GIS modelling
Hazard assessment for gas emission and flank landslides at Albano crater lake (Rome)
<p>Repeated flooding episodes occurred from the crater lake of Albano until 398 B.C... more <p>Repeated flooding episodes occurred from the crater lake of Albano until 398 B.C. These floods were probably caused by sudden injection of gas and warm waters on the lake bottom, or also by the overturn of the lake which would have brought to the surface the deep water rich in CO<sub>2</sub>. Since several years, we have been monitoring the crater lake chemical composition as well as its physico-chemical parameters and dissolved gas content, in order to assess evidences of possible deep fluid input in the lake water. The concentration of dissolved gases, and their isotopic composition (d<sup>13</sup>C<sub>TDIC</sub>, <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He) suggest the presence of deep gases (CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub>) within the lake bottom layer. However, the total pressure of dissolved gases is presently, at any depth, much lower than the hydrostatic pressure. If, for any reason, a significant volume of deep water should rise to the surface, only limited phenomena of gas exsolution are to be expected. A density variation of shallow lake water due to cooling, in case of heavy rainfall in harsh winters (T<8.5°C), may produce water overturns. Such phenomena, as long as they happen with a certain frequency, would prevent the accumulation of dangerous quantities of CO<sub>2</sub> in the deepest lake water strata. Apart from a volcanic unrest, the most dangerous condition is the occurrence of seismic swarms with hypocentres in the Lake Albano area, which could lead to an increase in the influx of hot gases and fluids in the lake. Currently, the conditions for a rapid release of significant quantities of CO<sub>2</sub> from Lake Albano do not exist. To improve the knowledge of the Lake Albano  water circulation, we investigated also the isotopic <sup>87</sup>Sr/<sup>86</sup>Sr composition of the lake water, comparing the results with those of the rocks hosting the aquifers. Results indicate that Lake Albano water samples well fit a binary mixing of a high <sup>87</sup>Sr/<sup>86</sup>Sr ratios end-member (Colli Albani volcanites) and a low ratio end-member (carbonate basement) in a proportion of 75% and 25% respectively. Moreover, the landslide hazard of the internal slopes of Lake Albano has been assessed using Ordinary Least Squares and Empirical Likehood Ratio modelling functions. The presence of numerous dwellings and recreational activities along the internal slopes of the crater lake, makes the area of potentially-high risk, both because of the inner intense slope instability and for possible secondary effects due to tsunami waves that might be generated by the impact of sliding subaerial masses on the lake surface or by sub-aqueous landslides.</p>
Soil CO2 flux monitoring of the ongoing Vulcano crisis
<p>La Fossa volcano on Vulcano island is the type-location for Volcanian eruptions.... more <p>La Fossa volcano on Vulcano island is the type-location for Volcanian eruptions. Last eruption dates back to 1888-’90. Since then, the quiescent state of La Fossa has been affected both by persistent fumarolic activity and by diffuse CO2 degassing either at the crater and in areas on the flanks (Forgia vecchia) at the base (Palizzi) of the cone, but also in inhabited areas of Vulcano porto (Levante beach, Faraglione). Normal quiescence has been punctuated by potential unrest crises mainly characterized by increase in magmatic degassing, in fumarole temperatures and in diffuse CO2 degassing. We have been monitoring the diffuse degassing area of La Fossa crater since 1995 and Palizzi, Levante beach and Vulcano porto zones since 2004.</p> <p>The ongoing crisis started in 2021 and showed a huge unprecedented increase in fumarolic degassing associated to ground deformation and episodic anomalous seismicity. For monitoring purposes, we performed since October 2021 two general surveys at the crater of La Fossa (soil CO2 flux and temperature), monthly surveys of diffuse soil CO2 flux in the areas of Palizzi, Levante Beach, Forgia vecchia and an extensive CO2 flux survey (~1000 measurements over 1 km2) in the inhabitated area of Volcano Porto in October 2021. From this wide survey we identified a new diffuse-degassing structure which was apparently inactive during the most recent unrest crises. Since November 2021, this area has been monthly surveyed too. This degassing structure is associated to shallow aquifer thermalism and the area is spotted by some mofetes. During the 1988-’93 crisis, it has been the site of some lethal accidents to animals caused by exposure to high CO2 concentration in air. There have been accidents during this crisis too, with the death of some cats and many birds caused by lethal concentrations of CO2 inside the yard of a house. Fortunately, there were no human casualties due to the prompt evacuation of the zone.</p> <p>Monthly repetition of soil CO2 flux from the target areas, showed that, at the early stage of the crisis, diffuse CO2 degassing equalled or even exceeded the high-flux rates measured during the previous crisis of 2004-’05 both at the crater area and at the crater base. In 2022-‘23 soil CO2 fluxes have slowly decreased, but the pre-crisis conditions have not yet been reached.</p>
The ASTARTE Paleotsunami deposits database - NEAM region
The EU project ASTARTE aims at developing a higher level of tsunami hazard assessment in the Nort... more The EU project ASTARTE aims at developing a higher level of tsunami hazard assessment in the North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas (NEAM) region by a combination of field work, experimental work, numerical modeling and technical development. The project is a cooperative work of 26 institutes from 16 countries and links together the description of past tsunamigenic events, the identification and characterization of tsunami sources, the assessment of the impact of such events, and the development of adequate resilience and risks mitigation strategies. The ASTARTE project includes a web-based database on Paleotsunami deposits. It has been implemented with the purpose to be the future information repository for tsunami research in Europe, integrating the existing official scientific reports and peer reviewed papers on these topics. The database will be updated every 24 months. http://www.astarte-project.eu
Photographic collection of the coseismic geological effects originated by the 24th August 2016, Amatrice (Central Italy) seismic sequence
We present a collection of pictures showing the geological effects produced in the natural or in ... more We present a collection of pictures showing the geological effects produced in the natural or in the built environment by the 2016 Amatrice earthquake sequence in Central Italy. The sequence hit a relatively wide area straddling the conterminous regions of Lazio, Abruzzo, Umbria and Marche, causing almost 300 deaths, thousands of injured and more than 3000 displaced people, severe damage (up to X MCS intensity) of a number of historical centres, and an estimated economic toll of more than 4 billion Euros. The August 24th MW 6.0 mainshock occurred ~1 km west of Accumoli on a ~NW-striking, SW-dipping normal fault; it was followed one hour later by a strong aftershock (MW 5.4) located 4 km east of Norcia. The Emergeo Working Group surveyed a ~750 km2 large area, recording more than 3200 observations of several types of coseismic effects: fractures (i.e. small surface open cracks with ā¤1 cm displacement), ruptures (i.e. surface cracks with both vertical and horizontal displacements >...
The transfer of information from a 1:25.000 geological database to the printing of a 1:50,000 geo... more The transfer of information from a 1:25.000 geological database to the printing of a 1:50,000 geological map sheet is a major problem in geological map production. It relates mainly to the greater detail of field information archived in the database with respect to that needed at a smaller representation scale. This research is focused on a new implementation of a geological database scheme that allows a digital version of the rules to be used by geologists and cartographers in the generalization process. Additionally, a system to avoid overcrowding of symbols is prototyped. A review of the major works on multi-scale databases and on the concepts of categories and hierarchies has influenced the generalization model proposed for multi-representation. Geographic Information Systems provide the means to carry out the necessary operations. I would like to thank my supervisors, Professor Adrian A. Hopgood, who patiently analysed the ideas presented in this thesis when they first evolved and who provided valuable guidance as the work matured, and Professor Andrea G. Fabbri, for the interesting discussions, the valuable comments, advice and support and especially for proofreading this thesis. Chapter 6 of this work is part of a joint research project carried out at the Geological Survey of Canada with the support of a NATO Advanced grant. I would like to thank Dr. Boyan Brodaric, supervisor of the research project, who has introduced me to research in automatic generalisation of geographic information and of geological databases and have provided valuable comments and material for this chapter of the work. During my studies and work on this thesis I have had frequent contacts with the researchers of the Italian National Geological Survey. I would like to thank them and especially Architect Domenico Tacchia for his suggestions and useful advices and Mr. Valerio Vitale for is useful help. Finally, I would like to thank my family for encouragement during this work and for helping me avoid drowning in thoughts about research.
World Catalog of Earthquake Rotated Objects (EROs)
The World Catalog of Earthquake Rotated Objects (EROs) is composed of 2254 EROs originated during... more The World Catalog of Earthquake Rotated Objects (EROs) is composed of 2254 EROs originated during 213 earthquakes occurred between 1349 and 2018. The EROs Catalog is organized into two different datasets that report the most important parameters and informations about the source earthquakes and about the observed EROs, respectively. The seismic event dataset (Events - red stars) reports the parameters of earthquakes (magnitude, intensity, focal mechanism etc) from which EROs observations are used. The EROs dataset (Observations - yellow dots) lists several parameters and data (epicentral distance, type of object, sense of rotation etc) associated with each ERO observation. It also contains the complete reference list for each seismic event, including the citation associated with the EROs observations. When using data from the EROs Catalog please cite the following papers: Cucci L., A. Tertulliani and A.M Lombardi (2016). The first World Catalog of Earthquake-Rotated Objects (EROs), ...
A new photographic dataset of the coseismic geological effects originated by the Mw5.9 Visso and Mw6.5 Norcia earthquakes (26th and 30th October 2016, Central Italy)
The transfer of information from a 1:25.000 geological database to the printing of a 1:50,000 geo... more The transfer of information from a 1:25.000 geological database to the printing of a 1:50,000 geological map sheet is a major problem in geological map production. It relates mainly to the greater detail of field information archived in the database with respect to that needed at a smaller representation scale. This research is focused on a new implementation of a geological database scheme that allows a digital version of the rules to be used by geologists and cartographers in the generalization process. Additionally, a system to avoid overcrowding of symbols is prototyped. A review of the major works on multi-scale databases and on the concepts of categories and hierarchies has influenced the generalization model proposed for multi-representation. Geographic Information Systems provide the means to carry out the necessary operations. The proposed system is based on the application of conventional and artificial intelligence computer techniques for the production of digital geologi...
Comparing Patterns of Spatial Relationships for Susceptibility Prediction of Landslide Occurrences
Open image in new window This contribution proposes a cautious way of constructing the susceptibi... more Open image in new window This contribution proposes a cautious way of constructing the susceptibility classes obtained from favourability modeling of landslide occurrences. It is based on the ranks of the numerical values obtained by the modelling. Such ranks can be displayed in the form of histograms, cumulative curves, and prediction patterns resembling maps. A number of models have been proposed and in this contribution the following will be compared in terms of their respective rankings for equal area classes: fuzzy set function, empirical likelihood ratio, linear and logistic regression, and Bayesian prediction function. The analyses performed and contrasted exemplify a generalized methodology for comparing predictions that should allow evaluating prediction patterns from any model. Unfortunately, many applications in the scientific literature use methods of characterizing prediction quality that make comparison hard or impossible. A database from a study area in the Mountain C...
This contribution analyses the spatial support of sampling points used to express the presence or... more This contribution analyses the spatial support of sampling points used to express the presence or absence of NO3Ė pollution in the water table. A spatial database constructed for the assessment of ground water vulnerability is re-analysed with a different predictive strategy. In practice, a case study area surrounding the city of Milan in northern Italy becomes an opportunity to point at a very general prediction modelling problem in which the basic direct evidence of a process is obtained only by sampling with point like measurements of nitrate concentration, as the ones from drill holes or water wells. The main questions are: āWhat is the functional spatial support for the modelling?ā and āWhat happens if different spatial supports are assumed?ā The answers to these questions are counterintuitive. Over the area of study of about 2,000 km2, the distribution of 305 water wells delimits a training area in which 133 wells are considered as impacted by nitrate pollution, i.e., direct s...
EU project ASTARTE aimed at developing a higher level of tsunami hazard assessment in the NorthEa... more EU project ASTARTE aimed at developing a higher level of tsunami hazard assessment in the NorthEastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAM) region by a combination of field work, experimental work, numerical modeling and technical development. The project was a cooperative work of 26 institutes from 16 countries and linked together the description of past tsunamigenic events, the identification and characterization of tsunami sources, the calculation of the impact of such events, and the development of adequate resilience and risks mitigation strategies (http://www.astarte-project.eu/). Within ASTARTE, a web-based database on Paleotsunami Deposits in the NEAM area was created with the purpose to be the future information repository for tsunami research in the broad region. The aim of the project is the integration of every existing official scientific reports and peer reviewed papers on this topic. The database, which archives information and detailed data crucial for tsunami modeling, will be updated on new entries every 12 months. A relational database managed by ArcGIS for Desktop 10.x software has been implemented. One of the final goals of the project is the public sharing of the archived dataset through a web-based map service that will allow visualizing, querying, analyzing, and interpreting the dataset. The interactive map service is hosted by ArcGIS Online and will deploy the cloud capabilities of the portal. Any interested users will be able to access the online GIS resources through any Internet browser or specific apps that run on desktop machines, smartphones, or tablets and will be able to use the analytical tools, key tasks, and workflows of the service. We will present the database structure (characterized by the presence of two main tables: the Site table and the Event table) and topics as well as their ArcGIS Online version. To date, a total of 151 sites and 220 tsunami evidence have been recorded within the ASTARTE database.
This contribution exposes the relative uncertainties associated with prediction patterns of lands... more This contribution exposes the relative uncertainties associated with prediction patterns of landslide susceptibility. The patterns are based on relationships between direct and indirect spatial evidence of landslide occurrences. In a spatial database constructed for the modeling, direct evidence is the presence of landslide trigger areas, while indirect evidence is the presence of corresponding multivariate context in the form of digital maps. Five mathematical modeling functions are applied to capture and integrate evidence, indirect and direct, for separating landslide-presence areas from the areas of landslide assumed absence. Empirical likelihood ratios are used first to represent the spatial relationships. These are then combined by the models into prediction scores, ordered, equal-area ranked, displayed, and synthesized as prediction-rate curves. A critical task is assessing how uncertainty levels vary across the different prediction patterns, i.e., the modeling results visual...
Estimation of the geothermal potential of the Caldara di Manziana site in the Sabatini Volcanic District (central Italy) by integrating geochemical data and 3D-GIS modelling
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