The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) has advanced the SURA Coastal Ocean Obs... more The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) has advanced the SURA Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction (SCOOP) program as a multi-institution collaboration to design and prototype a modular, distributed system for real-time prediction and visualization of the coastal impacts from extreme atmospheric events, including hurricane inundation and waves. The SCOOP program vision is a community “cyberinfrastructure” that enables advances in the science of environmental prediction and coastal hazard planning. The system architecture is a coordinated and distributed network of interoperable, modularized components that include numerical models, information catalogs, distributed archives, computing resources, and network infrastructure. The components are linked over the Internet by standardized web-service interfaces in a service-oriented architecture (SOA). The design philosophy allows geographically disparate partnering institutions to provide complementary data-provider an...
A prototype of an efficient and accurate rapid forecasting and mapping system (RFMS) of storm sur... more A prototype of an efficient and accurate rapid forecasting and mapping system (RFMS) of storm surge is presented. Given a storm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the RFMS can generate a coastal inundation map on a high-resolution grid in 1 min (reference system Intel Core i7–3770K). The foundation of the RFMS is a storm surge database consisting of high-resolution simulations of 490 optimal storms generated by a robust storm surge modeling system, Curvilinear-Grid Hydrodynamics in 3D (CH3D-SSMS). The RFMS uses an efficient quick kriging interpolation scheme to interpolate the surge response from the storm surge database, which considers tens of thousands of combinations of five landfall parameters of storms: central pressure deficit, radius to maximum wind, forward speed, heading direction, and landfall location. The RFMS is applied to southwest Florida using data from Hurricane Charley in 2004 and Hurricane Irma in 2017, and to the Florida Panhandle using data from Hurri...
Coastal flood hazards and damage to coastal communities are increasing steeply and nonlinearly du... more Coastal flood hazards and damage to coastal communities are increasing steeply and nonlinearly due to the compound impact of intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) and accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). We expand the probabilistic coastal flood hazard analysis framework to facilitate coastal adaptation by simulating the compound impact of predicted intensifying TCs and rising sea levels in the twenty-first century. We compared the characteristics of landfalling TCs in Florida (FL) and southwest Florida (SWFL) for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries predicted by several climate models and downscaling models. TCs predicted by four climate models, one without downscaling and three with downscaling, were used by a coupled surge-wave model to predict the future flood hazard due to compound effects of TCs and SLR over a large SWFL coastal flood plain. By 2100, the coastal inundation metrics of the 1% annual chance coastal flood could become almost 3–7 folds of their current values...
To predict the response of coastal and estuarine ecosystems to anthropogenic and natural changes,... more To predict the response of coastal and estuarine ecosystems to anthropogenic and natural changes, it is necessary to conduct integrated-process and integrated-scale modeling of large coastal and estuarine areas. This paper presents an integrated modeling system, CH3D-IMS (http://ch3d.coastal.ufl.edu/), which includes models of circulation, wave, particle trajectory, sediment transport, water quality dynamics, light attenuation, and seagrass dynamics. The CH3D-IMS has been and continues to be validated with data from various estuaries in Florida. A 3-D variable-density groundwater flow model and a fishery model are being coupled to the CH3D-IMS. We present example applications of the CH3D-IMS including: (a) simulation of the Indian River Lagoon and trajectory of Shuttle Columbia debris in North and Central Florida Atlantic Coastal water, (b) simulation of storm surge in Tampa Bay, Sarasota Bay and adjacent Gulf of Mexico, and (c) simulation of circulation in Charlotte Harbor and adjacent Gulf of Mexico water. As the integrated modeling system continues to be applied to ever more complex problems over increasingly larger coastal areas, it requires more computational resources and disciplinary expertises which are often unavailable in any single institution. To facilitate integrated-process and integrated-scale modeling by multiple institutions, the development of an infrastructure-a regional modeling "grid"-is proposed.
The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) has advanced the SURA Coastal Ocean Obs... more The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) has advanced the SURA Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction (SCOOP) program as a multi-institution collaboration to design and prototype a modular, distributed system for real-time prediction and visualization of the coastal impacts from extreme atmospheric events, including hurricane inundation and waves. The SCOOP program vision is a community “cyberinfrastructure” that enables advances in the science of environmental prediction and coastal hazard planning. The system architecture is a coordinated and distributed network of interoperable, modularized components that include numerical models, information catalogs, distributed archives, computing resources, and network infrastructure. The components are linked over the Internet by standardized web-service interfaces in a service-oriented architecture (SOA). The design philosophy allows geographically disparate partnering institutions to provide complementary data-provider an...
The 3-D hydrodynamics of storm surge events, including the effects of vegetation and impact on on... more The 3-D hydrodynamics of storm surge events, including the effects of vegetation and impact on onshore transport of marine sediment, have important consequences for coastal communities. Here, complex storm surge dynamics during Hurricane Ike are investigated using a three-dimensional (3-D), vegetation-resolving storm surge-wave model (CH3D-SWAN) which includes such effects of vegetation as profile drag, skin friction, and production, dissipation, and transport of turbulence. This vegetation-resolving 3-D model features a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model, which uses momentum equations with vegetation-induced profile and skin friction drags, a dynamic q 2 equation including turbulence production and dissipation by vegetation, as well as vegetation-dependent algebraic length-scale equations, and a Smagorinsky-type horizontal turbulence model. This vegetation model has been verified using extensive laboratory tests, but this study is a comparison of 2-D and 3-D simulations of complex storm surge dynamics during Hurricane Ike. We examine the value of 3-D storm surge models relative to 2-D models for simulating coastal currents, effects of vegetation on surge, and sediment transport during storm events. Comparisons are made between results obtained using simple 2-D formulations for bottom friction, the Manning coefficient (MC) approach, and physics-based 3-D vegetation-modeling (VM) approach. Last, the role that the 3-D hydrodynamics on onshore transport and deposition of marine sediments during the storm is investigated. While both the 3-D and 2-D results simulated the water level dynamics, results of the physics-based 3-D VM approach, as compared to the 2-D MC approach, more accurately captures the complex storm surge dynamics.
The 3D hydrodynamics of storm surge events, including the effects of vegetation and impact on ons... more The 3D hydrodynamics of storm surge events, including the effects of vegetation and impact on onshore transport of marine sediment, have important consequences for coastal communities. Here, complex storm surge dynamics during Hurricane Ike are investigated using a three-dimensional (3D), vegetation-resolving storm surge-wave model (CH3D-SWAN) which includes such effects of vegetation as profile drag, skin friction, and production, dissipation, and transport of turbulence. This vegetation-resolving 3D model features a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model, which uses momentum equations with vegetation induced profile and skin friction drags, a dynamic q 2 equation including turbulence production and dissipation by vegetation, as well as vegetation-dependent algebraic length scale equations, and a Smagorinsky type horizontal turbulence model. This vegetation model has been verified using extensive laboratory tests, but this study is a comparison of 2D and 3D simulations of complex storm surge dynamics during Hurricane Ike.
The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) has advanced the SURA Coastal Ocean Obs... more The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) has advanced the SURA Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction (SCOOP) program as a multi-institution collaboration to design and prototype a modular, distributed system for real-time prediction and visualization of the coastal impacts from extreme atmospheric events, including hurricane inundation and waves. The SCOOP program vision is a community “cyberinfrastructure” that enables advances in the science of environmental prediction and coastal hazard planning. The system architecture is a coordinated and distributed network of interoperable, modularized components that include numerical models, information catalogs, distributed archives, computing resources, and network infrastructure. The components are linked over the Internet by standardized web-service interfaces in a service-oriented architecture (SOA). The design philosophy allows geographically disparate partnering institutions to provide complementary data-provider an...
A prototype of an efficient and accurate rapid forecasting and mapping system (RFMS) of storm sur... more A prototype of an efficient and accurate rapid forecasting and mapping system (RFMS) of storm surge is presented. Given a storm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the RFMS can generate a coastal inundation map on a high-resolution grid in 1 min (reference system Intel Core i7–3770K). The foundation of the RFMS is a storm surge database consisting of high-resolution simulations of 490 optimal storms generated by a robust storm surge modeling system, Curvilinear-Grid Hydrodynamics in 3D (CH3D-SSMS). The RFMS uses an efficient quick kriging interpolation scheme to interpolate the surge response from the storm surge database, which considers tens of thousands of combinations of five landfall parameters of storms: central pressure deficit, radius to maximum wind, forward speed, heading direction, and landfall location. The RFMS is applied to southwest Florida using data from Hurricane Charley in 2004 and Hurricane Irma in 2017, and to the Florida Panhandle using data from Hurri...
Coastal flood hazards and damage to coastal communities are increasing steeply and nonlinearly du... more Coastal flood hazards and damage to coastal communities are increasing steeply and nonlinearly due to the compound impact of intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) and accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). We expand the probabilistic coastal flood hazard analysis framework to facilitate coastal adaptation by simulating the compound impact of predicted intensifying TCs and rising sea levels in the twenty-first century. We compared the characteristics of landfalling TCs in Florida (FL) and southwest Florida (SWFL) for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries predicted by several climate models and downscaling models. TCs predicted by four climate models, one without downscaling and three with downscaling, were used by a coupled surge-wave model to predict the future flood hazard due to compound effects of TCs and SLR over a large SWFL coastal flood plain. By 2100, the coastal inundation metrics of the 1% annual chance coastal flood could become almost 3–7 folds of their current values...
To predict the response of coastal and estuarine ecosystems to anthropogenic and natural changes,... more To predict the response of coastal and estuarine ecosystems to anthropogenic and natural changes, it is necessary to conduct integrated-process and integrated-scale modeling of large coastal and estuarine areas. This paper presents an integrated modeling system, CH3D-IMS (http://ch3d.coastal.ufl.edu/), which includes models of circulation, wave, particle trajectory, sediment transport, water quality dynamics, light attenuation, and seagrass dynamics. The CH3D-IMS has been and continues to be validated with data from various estuaries in Florida. A 3-D variable-density groundwater flow model and a fishery model are being coupled to the CH3D-IMS. We present example applications of the CH3D-IMS including: (a) simulation of the Indian River Lagoon and trajectory of Shuttle Columbia debris in North and Central Florida Atlantic Coastal water, (b) simulation of storm surge in Tampa Bay, Sarasota Bay and adjacent Gulf of Mexico, and (c) simulation of circulation in Charlotte Harbor and adjacent Gulf of Mexico water. As the integrated modeling system continues to be applied to ever more complex problems over increasingly larger coastal areas, it requires more computational resources and disciplinary expertises which are often unavailable in any single institution. To facilitate integrated-process and integrated-scale modeling by multiple institutions, the development of an infrastructure-a regional modeling "grid"-is proposed.
The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) has advanced the SURA Coastal Ocean Obs... more The Southeastern Universities Research Association (SURA) has advanced the SURA Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction (SCOOP) program as a multi-institution collaboration to design and prototype a modular, distributed system for real-time prediction and visualization of the coastal impacts from extreme atmospheric events, including hurricane inundation and waves. The SCOOP program vision is a community “cyberinfrastructure” that enables advances in the science of environmental prediction and coastal hazard planning. The system architecture is a coordinated and distributed network of interoperable, modularized components that include numerical models, information catalogs, distributed archives, computing resources, and network infrastructure. The components are linked over the Internet by standardized web-service interfaces in a service-oriented architecture (SOA). The design philosophy allows geographically disparate partnering institutions to provide complementary data-provider an...
The 3-D hydrodynamics of storm surge events, including the effects of vegetation and impact on on... more The 3-D hydrodynamics of storm surge events, including the effects of vegetation and impact on onshore transport of marine sediment, have important consequences for coastal communities. Here, complex storm surge dynamics during Hurricane Ike are investigated using a three-dimensional (3-D), vegetation-resolving storm surge-wave model (CH3D-SWAN) which includes such effects of vegetation as profile drag, skin friction, and production, dissipation, and transport of turbulence. This vegetation-resolving 3-D model features a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model, which uses momentum equations with vegetation-induced profile and skin friction drags, a dynamic q 2 equation including turbulence production and dissipation by vegetation, as well as vegetation-dependent algebraic length-scale equations, and a Smagorinsky-type horizontal turbulence model. This vegetation model has been verified using extensive laboratory tests, but this study is a comparison of 2-D and 3-D simulations of complex storm surge dynamics during Hurricane Ike. We examine the value of 3-D storm surge models relative to 2-D models for simulating coastal currents, effects of vegetation on surge, and sediment transport during storm events. Comparisons are made between results obtained using simple 2-D formulations for bottom friction, the Manning coefficient (MC) approach, and physics-based 3-D vegetation-modeling (VM) approach. Last, the role that the 3-D hydrodynamics on onshore transport and deposition of marine sediments during the storm is investigated. While both the 3-D and 2-D results simulated the water level dynamics, results of the physics-based 3-D VM approach, as compared to the 2-D MC approach, more accurately captures the complex storm surge dynamics.
The 3D hydrodynamics of storm surge events, including the effects of vegetation and impact on ons... more The 3D hydrodynamics of storm surge events, including the effects of vegetation and impact on onshore transport of marine sediment, have important consequences for coastal communities. Here, complex storm surge dynamics during Hurricane Ike are investigated using a three-dimensional (3D), vegetation-resolving storm surge-wave model (CH3D-SWAN) which includes such effects of vegetation as profile drag, skin friction, and production, dissipation, and transport of turbulence. This vegetation-resolving 3D model features a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model, which uses momentum equations with vegetation induced profile and skin friction drags, a dynamic q 2 equation including turbulence production and dissipation by vegetation, as well as vegetation-dependent algebraic length scale equations, and a Smagorinsky type horizontal turbulence model. This vegetation model has been verified using extensive laboratory tests, but this study is a comparison of 2D and 3D simulations of complex storm surge dynamics during Hurricane Ike.
Uploads
Papers by P Sh