Microfinance Default Rates in Ghana: Evidence from Individual-Liability Credit Contracts:SME financing in frontier markets in Africa
In this paper we present evidence on the factors that affect default probabilities in individual-... more In this paper we present evidence on the factors that affect default probabilities in individual-liability credit contracts. The data are drawn from a for-profit microfinance lender in Ghana. Our sample consists of nearly 1,000 randomly selected loans approved between 2002 and 2007, three quarters of which were repaid; as default is relatively rare in microfinance, borrowers who failed to repay their loans were over-sampled. We study the impact of demographic, business and loan characteristics on default odds. We find that repayment is affected mainly by the number of dependents in the household, years in business, use of proceeds, loan status, and frequency of loan monitoring. In contrast to other studies, we find no connection between the borrower’s marital status, gender or their savings’ behavior and the likelihood of default
Piled carpets, whether of Eastern or European production, appeared in colonial homes soon after t... more Piled carpets, whether of Eastern or European production, appeared in colonial homes soon after the colonisation of North America in the early 17th century. Initially displayed on tables and cupboards, they were subsequently used as floor coverings in the homes of political and social elites. Over the 18th century Eastern carpets appear to have lost their original semiotic function: ‘English’ having become synonymous with elegance, led colonial consumers increasingly to substitute carpets made in Great Britain for those imported from Persia or Turkey; this shift was motivated in large part by both the wider range of English styles and their lower cost. Probate inventories provide much of the information on the position of carpets in colonial homes. Such data are subject to various shortcomings, which are noted and discussed, especially in relation to their use as valuation measures.
This study summarizes what is known about Egyptian carpet production in the latter part of the Ma... more This study summarizes what is known about Egyptian carpet production in the latter part of the Mamluk sultanate. While the output appears to have expanded in response to official requireme...
THIS PAPER EXPLORES causal relationships between spot and official crude oil prices. Various tech... more THIS PAPER EXPLORES causal relationships between spot and official crude oil prices. Various techniques for testing for the presence of Granger causality are applied to quarterly data for spot and official prices for 31' and 34Ocrude oil in the period 1974-81. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that there is unidirectional causality in the Granger sense from spot prices to official prices, but not the reverse. This suggests that it is legitimate to construct models that represent the official price of crude as a distributed lag function of past spot prices. The fagged regressions, however, indicate that official prices only adjust partially to changes in the spot prices.
Microfinance Default Rates in Ghana: Evidence from Individual-Liability Credit Contracts:SME financing in frontier markets in Africa
In this paper we present evidence on the factors that affect default probabilities in individual-... more In this paper we present evidence on the factors that affect default probabilities in individual-liability credit contracts. The data are drawn from a for-profit microfinance lender in Ghana. Our sample consists of nearly 1,000 randomly selected loans approved between 2002 and 2007, three quarters of which were repaid; as default is relatively rare in microfinance, borrowers who failed to repay their loans were over-sampled. We study the impact of demographic, business and loan characteristics on default odds. We find that repayment is affected mainly by the number of dependents in the household, years in business, use of proceeds, loan status, and frequency of loan monitoring. In contrast to other studies, we find no connection between the borrower’s marital status, gender or their savings’ behavior and the likelihood of default
Piled carpets, whether of Eastern or European production, appeared in colonial homes soon after t... more Piled carpets, whether of Eastern or European production, appeared in colonial homes soon after the colonisation of North America in the early 17th century. Initially displayed on tables and cupboards, they were subsequently used as floor coverings in the homes of political and social elites. Over the 18th century Eastern carpets appear to have lost their original semiotic function: ‘English’ having become synonymous with elegance, led colonial consumers increasingly to substitute carpets made in Great Britain for those imported from Persia or Turkey; this shift was motivated in large part by both the wider range of English styles and their lower cost. Probate inventories provide much of the information on the position of carpets in colonial homes. Such data are subject to various shortcomings, which are noted and discussed, especially in relation to their use as valuation measures.
This study summarizes what is known about Egyptian carpet production in the latter part of the Ma... more This study summarizes what is known about Egyptian carpet production in the latter part of the Mamluk sultanate. While the output appears to have expanded in response to official requireme...
THIS PAPER EXPLORES causal relationships between spot and official crude oil prices. Various tech... more THIS PAPER EXPLORES causal relationships between spot and official crude oil prices. Various techniques for testing for the presence of Granger causality are applied to quarterly data for spot and official prices for 31' and 34Ocrude oil in the period 1974-81. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that there is unidirectional causality in the Granger sense from spot prices to official prices, but not the reverse. This suggests that it is legitimate to construct models that represent the official price of crude as a distributed lag function of past spot prices. The fagged regressions, however, indicate that official prices only adjust partially to changes in the spot prices.
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Papers by Gerald POLLIO