Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic dam... more Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic damage. According to the statistical data of the International Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (www.cred.be), earthquakes are among the leaders in all aspects: the number of fatalities, the number of injured, and the caused economic loss. The widely accepted strategy for reducing the damage and social losses implies preventive measures in high-risk zones identified by mapping with different details. About 5% of RF territory is referred to the areas characterized by a high level of seismic hazard, where earthquakes with intensities I = 8-9 and 9-10 by the MMSK-86 scale may occur. The Caucasus is among the most hazardous and densely populated regions in the country. During the preparation to the 2014 Olympic Games, the individual seismic risk was assessed for the Greater Sochi territory including the Olympic sites. The paper analyzes the results of seismic risk monitoring, obtained in 2007 and 2013.
The results of the Fast Damage Estimation Tool application within the EUR-OPA Program EDRIM are a... more The results of the Fast Damage Estimation Tool application within the EUR-OPA Program EDRIM are analyzed. More than two years period of the Tool operation showed that on the whole the possible loss computations made with the Tool simulation models application proved to be rather reliable and the Tool proved to be rather effective in spite on few unfortunate examples
Earthquake Casualties Estimation in Emergency Mode
Human Casualties in Earthquakes, 2010
Rough estimations, in emergency mode, of expected casualties caused by strong earthquakes are ver... more Rough estimations, in emergency mode, of expected casualties caused by strong earthquakes are very critical for taking the proper decisions about search and rescue operations, as well as rendering humanitarian assistance. Loss computations are started as soon as input data (earthquake source parameters) are available. The efforts are made to issue a likely assessment as quickly as possible (within 30–60
Casualty Estimation due to Earthquakes: Injury Structure and Dynamics
Human Casualties in Earthquakes, 2010
The chapter describes the Russian experience in earthquake casualty estimation and organisation o... more The chapter describes the Russian experience in earthquake casualty estimation and organisation of medical support to the population in a stricken area. Based on empirical impact data caused by the 1948 Ashkhabad, 1967 Tashkent, 1988 Spitak, 1995 Neftegorsk earthquakes and others, a procedure was developed to assess the number of fatalities and injuries of different levels for three types of settlements. The procedure is able to take into account the dynamics of casualties through time and to identify different types of injuries. Examples of casualty estimations caused by scenario earthquakes in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky city are given, and organisational issues dealing with medical support and mass medical evacuation of the affected population within relief operations are considered.
Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards
Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary imp... more Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary ...
Методы анализа сейсмического риска для населения и урбанизированных территорий
Background Seismic impact on objects of oil and gas complex (OGC) can cause a number of secondary... more Background Seismic impact on objects of oil and gas complex (OGC) can cause a number of secondary emergency situations of technogenic nature such as explosions, fires, emissions of chemically hazardous objects, etc. Consequences (number of injuries and victims, material damage) from actions of secondary accidents quite often exceed losses from primary impact. Therefore it is necessary to develop unique methodical approaches to assessment of seismic risk taking into account secondary technogenic accidents. Aims and Objectives: • to develop methods of complex analysis of seismic risk taking into account possible accidents on objects of oil and gas complex in destructive earthquakes; • to estimate seismic vulnerability of long distance pipelines in the conditions of information shortage. Methods Objectives were solved by methods of probability theory, statistical analysis and mathematical modelling. Results Methodical approaches to justification of impact models due to various events’ ...
Цель. Актуализация информационного наполнения автоматизированной информационной управляющей систе... more Цель. Актуализация информационного наполнения автоматизированной информационной управляющей системы (АИУС) единой государственной системы предупреждения и ликвидации чрезвычайных ситуаций (РСЧС) МЧС России для повышения надежности оценок сейсмического риска и оперативных оценок потерь от землетрясений в целях обеспечения безопасности населения. Методы. Исследование влияния особенностей затухания сейсмической интенсивности на оценки потерь от землетрясений на территории Восточной Прибалтики проведено путем калибровки параметров макросейсмического поля и имитационного моделирования с помощью системы «Экстремум». Результаты. Приводятся примеры успешного использования результатов калибровки макросейсмического поля для ретроспективной оценки последствий Калининградского землетрясения 21 сентября 2004 г. и прогноза последствий в случае более сильного события с Mmax = 5,0–5,5 в Восточной Прибалтике. Получены приемлемые оценки погрешности моделирования на случай оперативной оценки потерь от...
Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic dam... more Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic damage. According to the statistical data of the International Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (www.cred.be), earthquakes are among the leaders in all aspects: the number of fatalities, the number of injured, and the caused economic loss. The widely accepted strategy for reducing the damage and social losses implies preventive measures in high-risk zones identified by mapping with different details. About 5% of RF territory is referred to the areas characterized by a high level of seismic hazard, where earthquakes with intensities I = 8-9 and 9-10 by the MMSK-86 scale may occur. The Caucasus is among the most hazardous and densely populated regions in the country. During the preparation to the 2014 Olympic Games, the individual seismic risk was assessed for the Greater Sochi territory including the Olympic sites. The paper analyzes the results of seismic risk monitoring, obtained in 2007 and 2013.
The results of the Fast Damage Estimation Tool application within the EUR-OPA Program EDRIM are a... more The results of the Fast Damage Estimation Tool application within the EUR-OPA Program EDRIM are analyzed. More than two years period of the Tool operation showed that on the whole the possible loss computations made with the Tool simulation models application proved to be rather reliable and the Tool proved to be rather effective in spite on few unfortunate examples
Earthquake Casualties Estimation in Emergency Mode
Human Casualties in Earthquakes, 2010
Rough estimations, in emergency mode, of expected casualties caused by strong earthquakes are ver... more Rough estimations, in emergency mode, of expected casualties caused by strong earthquakes are very critical for taking the proper decisions about search and rescue operations, as well as rendering humanitarian assistance. Loss computations are started as soon as input data (earthquake source parameters) are available. The efforts are made to issue a likely assessment as quickly as possible (within 30–60
Casualty Estimation due to Earthquakes: Injury Structure and Dynamics
Human Casualties in Earthquakes, 2010
The chapter describes the Russian experience in earthquake casualty estimation and organisation o... more The chapter describes the Russian experience in earthquake casualty estimation and organisation of medical support to the population in a stricken area. Based on empirical impact data caused by the 1948 Ashkhabad, 1967 Tashkent, 1988 Spitak, 1995 Neftegorsk earthquakes and others, a procedure was developed to assess the number of fatalities and injuries of different levels for three types of settlements. The procedure is able to take into account the dynamics of casualties through time and to identify different types of injuries. Examples of casualty estimations caused by scenario earthquakes in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky city are given, and organisational issues dealing with medical support and mass medical evacuation of the affected population within relief operations are considered.
Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards
Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary imp... more Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary ...
Методы анализа сейсмического риска для населения и урбанизированных территорий
Background Seismic impact on objects of oil and gas complex (OGC) can cause a number of secondary... more Background Seismic impact on objects of oil and gas complex (OGC) can cause a number of secondary emergency situations of technogenic nature such as explosions, fires, emissions of chemically hazardous objects, etc. Consequences (number of injuries and victims, material damage) from actions of secondary accidents quite often exceed losses from primary impact. Therefore it is necessary to develop unique methodical approaches to assessment of seismic risk taking into account secondary technogenic accidents. Aims and Objectives: • to develop methods of complex analysis of seismic risk taking into account possible accidents on objects of oil and gas complex in destructive earthquakes; • to estimate seismic vulnerability of long distance pipelines in the conditions of information shortage. Methods Objectives were solved by methods of probability theory, statistical analysis and mathematical modelling. Results Methodical approaches to justification of impact models due to various events’ ...
Цель. Актуализация информационного наполнения автоматизированной информационной управляющей систе... more Цель. Актуализация информационного наполнения автоматизированной информационной управляющей системы (АИУС) единой государственной системы предупреждения и ликвидации чрезвычайных ситуаций (РСЧС) МЧС России для повышения надежности оценок сейсмического риска и оперативных оценок потерь от землетрясений в целях обеспечения безопасности населения. Методы. Исследование влияния особенностей затухания сейсмической интенсивности на оценки потерь от землетрясений на территории Восточной Прибалтики проведено путем калибровки параметров макросейсмического поля и имитационного моделирования с помощью системы «Экстремум». Результаты. Приводятся примеры успешного использования результатов калибровки макросейсмического поля для ретроспективной оценки последствий Калининградского землетрясения 21 сентября 2004 г. и прогноза последствий в случае более сильного события с Mmax = 5,0–5,5 в Восточной Прибалтике. Получены приемлемые оценки погрешности моделирования на случай оперативной оценки потерь от...
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