The MENA countries face a multitude of challenges, in particular relating to the efficiency, size... more The MENA countries face a multitude of challenges, in particular relating to the efficiency, size and reform of the public sector. Large public sectors, highly centralised government administrations, complex regulatory structures, limited development of institutions and limited attention to promoting voice, transparency and accountability in government are characteristic of the situation in many MENA countries. The application of modern technologies and ICT in the form of e-Government could yield great benefits in the reform and modernization of the public sector. The experience of e-Government in a number of developed as well as in developing countries has proven to be a tool for economic development, institutional and civil service reform, for greater efficiency and transparency and has led to higher productivity growth in government provided goods and services. The institution of e-Government can also be instrumental in achieving ‘good governance’, direct representation and voice...
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, similar to many emerging market economies, fac... more The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, similar to many emerging market economies, face wide gaps on corporate governance compared to their industrialized counterparts. The second MENA regional corporate governance forum, held on June 3 to 5, 2004, Beirut aimed to address practical implementations of corporate governance in the Arab world with a focus on improving transparency and disclosure. This report provides a summary of conclusions and recommendations that emerged from the second MENA regional corporate governance forum.
Thank you for inviting me to address this conference dealing with an important issue for Lebanon’... more Thank you for inviting me to address this conference dealing with an important issue for Lebanon’s future. I would like to thank the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, the Adenauer Foundation and the World Bank for having organized this symposium. My talk falls into five parts. The first part is a general overview and discussion of the background to the Partnership Agreement. In the second, I will sketch the major dispositions of the agreement. The third part is a brief discussion of the potential costs and benefits of the agreement, with a focus on its economic implications. The fourth part consists of a discussion of economic policy issues and options. Section five of the talk relates to the implications for monetary policy.
1. Transition, Growth & Employment. This paper addresses a number of issues relating to labour & ... more 1. Transition, Growth & Employment. This paper addresses a number of issues relating to labour & employment in the context of the post-conflict reconstruction of Iraq. Iraq faces a number of transitions. One, from a State dominated economy, with extensive regulation, distortions, and barriers to competition and to labour mobility, towards a market based economy with a dominant role played by the private sector. Two, effecting a political transition from a one-party, authoritarian regime, to a pluralistic political regime, with effective protection of human rights and democratic representation. Three, moving from a closed economy to increased openness, with lower tariff barriers to trade in goods and greater mobility of capital and assets. Four, achieving economic diversification by moving from an oil-sector dominated economy to a more diversified production and activity structure. Indeed, the recently issued National Development Strategy calls for extensive liberalization, privatiza...
Nasser Saidi has taught macroeconomics and international economics at The University of Chicago (... more Nasser Saidi has taught macroeconomics and international economics at The University of Chicago (1977-80), the Graduate Institute of International Studies and the University of Geneva (1981-85). He is a consultant to governments, central banks and international financial organisations, in work relating to Latin America and the Middle East. He is the author of numerous articles and studies in theoretical and applied international macroeconomics, and of "Essays in Rational Expectations and Flexible Exchange Rates", (1981). Notes: Mean and standard deviation (s.d.) of growth rates of indicated variables. Real GDP is GDP at constant (1974=100) prices; CPI, Consumer Price Index (1974=100); LU$ is the Lebanese Pound/U.S. Dollar exchange rate (annual average); MI, M3 denote narrow and broad definitions of the money supply, with M3 including foreign currency deposits; International Reserves in $ held by the Bank of Lebanon, with gold valued at market prices; Foreign exchange reserves in $ held by Bank of Lebanon; Public Debt definition comprises outstanding Treasury Bills and Bonds, and loans and advances of the consolidated banking system to the government; Imports, Exports are from Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) published by the IMF. Government expenditures and revenue at constant prices.
Nasser Saidi is the President of Nasser Saidi & Associates a niche economic & financial advisory ... more Nasser Saidi is the President of Nasser Saidi & Associates a niche economic & financial advisory services company offering its services to governments, central banks, regulators and multinationals, including banks & financial institutions. He is Chair of the regional Clean Energy Business Council. He is also a member of the IMF’s Regional Advisory Group for MENA and Co-Chair of the OECD MENA Corporate Governance Working Group. Dr. Saidi served as Minister of Economy and Trade and Minister of Industry of Lebanon and First Vice-Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon for two mandates 1993-2003. He was the Chief Economist and Strategist of the Dubai International Financial Centre, 2006-2012. He is the founder & former CEO of the Hawkamah Institute for Corporate Governance & Mudara Institute of Directors. Dr. Nasser Saidi President of Nasser Saidi & Associates
International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal, 2018
This paper was prepared by Nasser Saidi & Associates to aid discussions during the MENA-OECD Work... more This paper was prepared by Nasser Saidi & Associates to aid discussions during the MENA-OECD Working Group on Investment and Trade‘s 2018 meeting. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region accounted for only 5% of global exports and 4.3% of total imports in 2017. Merchandise exports from the MENA region to the rest of the world stood at 893bn USD in 2017 (up from just under 250bn USD at the start of this century). MENA countries are particularly vulnerable to terms-of-trade shocks because of the volatility of their export earnings, caused by the high concentration of exports in primary commodities and exacerbated by the high concentration of export markets. The region can achieve greater economies of scale if each country can better use its comparative advantage through production sharing networks and integration into global value chains. There has been a significant shift in the region’s trade patterns toward Asia over the past few decades. Asia now accounts for about 55% of t...
Economic activity in the GCC countries was recovering after the Great Financial Crisis when the t... more Economic activity in the GCC countries was recovering after the Great Financial Crisis when the turmoil of the-Arab Spring‖ broke out. The economies of the UAE and Qatar remained largely immune to the region's troubles, underscoring the countries' ability to act as a safe haven during times of turmoil. A strong recovery in oil prices during 2011 and higher levels of government spending improved growth performance, with the IMF forecasting real GDP of the GCC at 7.2% in 2011 compared to 5.4% in the previous year. The hydrocarbon sector has continued to account for the bulk of GDP in a number of GCC countries (though not the UAE or Bahrain) 2 even as the GCC countries embarked on policies to enable
Essays on Rational Expectations and Flexible Exchange Rates
... Essays on rational expectations and flexible exchange rates. Post a Comment. CONTRIBUTORS: Au... more ... Essays on rational expectations and flexible exchange rates. Post a Comment. CONTRIBUTORS: Author: Saidi, Nasser Amin (b. 1950, d. ----. PUBLISHER: Garland Pub. (New York). SERIES TITLE: YEAR: 1982. PUB TYPE: Book (ISBN 0824041658 ). VOLUME/EDITION: ...
For Lebanon the decade of the nineties opened with the promise of stability, reconstruction and g... more For Lebanon the decade of the nineties opened with the promise of stability, reconstruction and growth. The Taif Agreement signaled an end to fifteen years of wars and violent conflict that had destroyed Lebanon's physical infrastructure, increased poverty and inequality in the distribution of income and wealth, reduced real per capita income by some 40 percent compared to pre-war levels,
Appendix 2-Timeline of the Gulf Monetary Union Year Month Gulf states ratify an agreement "to coo... more Appendix 2-Timeline of the Gulf Monetary Union Year Month Gulf states ratify an agreement "to coordinate their financial, monetary and banking policies ... including an endeavour to establish a joint currency". Dec Gulf rulers agree to draw up legislation for monetary union by 2005 and launch a single currency by 2010. The states agree to peg their currencies to the dollar until achieving monetary union. Jan Gulf agrees to reduce customs tariffs to 5% on all imported goods by Jan. 1, 2003 as part of customs union. Oct Gulf states say they are seeking advice from the European Central Bank on their monetary union programme. Dec Gulf rulers agree to complete a common market by the end of 2007. Jan Kuwait re-pegs its dinar to the dollar from a basket of currencies in preparation for monetary union. April UAE finance minister says a single Gulf currency is likely in 2007, three years ahead of schedule. Aug Gulf states should agree on the name of the single currency, its specifications and the mechanisms to put it into circulation by 2007, the GCC General Secretariat says. Aug GCC Supreme Council is studying the possibility of setting up a common central bank by mid-2006, Secretariat says. May Gulf states have made only "modest progress" toward the single currency, says Kuwait's central bank governor. Feb Gulf states are expected to agree on a joint monetary council by the end of the year to help harmonise monetary and fiscal policies, says the GCC General Secretariat. Sept UAE central bank governor says single currency should be free-floating by 2015. Nov Saudi central bank governor says there were "reservations" about the 2010 deadline but too early to modify. Dec Oman decides not to join monetary union by 2010 deadline, leaves door open for joining later. Apr Saudi central bank governor calls 2010 deadline "very ambitious". May Kuwait drops dollar peg, dealing blow to union plan. Sept Gulf central bankers agree to develop separate policies to tackle inflation after failing to inject momentum into a plan for monetary union. The 2010 deadline would be "difficult" to meet, the Saudi central bank governor says. Dec Gulf Arab rulers try to close ranks on currency policy and remain committed to a 2010 target date for monetary union, urging states to get it back on track. Feb Oman's central bank governor says Oman has decided not to join the monetary union indefinitely.
The IMF estimates that the "adjustment in the primary current account balance needed to lower gro... more The IMF estimates that the "adjustment in the primary current account balance needed to lower gross general government debt below 60 percent of GDP by 2030 in advanced economies" is 8¾ percentage points of GDP on average. 5 See the engaging lecture by Niall Ferguson, Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments, 2010.
The MENA countries face a multitude of challenges, in particular relating to the efficiency, size... more The MENA countries face a multitude of challenges, in particular relating to the efficiency, size and reform of the public sector. Large public sectors, highly centralised government administrations, complex regulatory structures, limited development of institutions and limited attention to promoting voice, transparency and accountability in government are characteristic of the situation in many MENA countries. The application of modern technologies and ICT in the form of e-Government could yield great benefits in the reform and modernization of the public sector. The experience of e-Government in a number of developed as well as in developing countries has proven to be a tool for economic development, institutional and civil service reform, for greater efficiency and transparency and has led to higher productivity growth in government provided goods and services. The institution of e-Government can also be instrumental in achieving ‘good governance’, direct representation and voice...
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, similar to many emerging market economies, fac... more The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, similar to many emerging market economies, face wide gaps on corporate governance compared to their industrialized counterparts. The second MENA regional corporate governance forum, held on June 3 to 5, 2004, Beirut aimed to address practical implementations of corporate governance in the Arab world with a focus on improving transparency and disclosure. This report provides a summary of conclusions and recommendations that emerged from the second MENA regional corporate governance forum.
Thank you for inviting me to address this conference dealing with an important issue for Lebanon’... more Thank you for inviting me to address this conference dealing with an important issue for Lebanon’s future. I would like to thank the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, the Adenauer Foundation and the World Bank for having organized this symposium. My talk falls into five parts. The first part is a general overview and discussion of the background to the Partnership Agreement. In the second, I will sketch the major dispositions of the agreement. The third part is a brief discussion of the potential costs and benefits of the agreement, with a focus on its economic implications. The fourth part consists of a discussion of economic policy issues and options. Section five of the talk relates to the implications for monetary policy.
1. Transition, Growth & Employment. This paper addresses a number of issues relating to labour & ... more 1. Transition, Growth & Employment. This paper addresses a number of issues relating to labour & employment in the context of the post-conflict reconstruction of Iraq. Iraq faces a number of transitions. One, from a State dominated economy, with extensive regulation, distortions, and barriers to competition and to labour mobility, towards a market based economy with a dominant role played by the private sector. Two, effecting a political transition from a one-party, authoritarian regime, to a pluralistic political regime, with effective protection of human rights and democratic representation. Three, moving from a closed economy to increased openness, with lower tariff barriers to trade in goods and greater mobility of capital and assets. Four, achieving economic diversification by moving from an oil-sector dominated economy to a more diversified production and activity structure. Indeed, the recently issued National Development Strategy calls for extensive liberalization, privatiza...
Nasser Saidi has taught macroeconomics and international economics at The University of Chicago (... more Nasser Saidi has taught macroeconomics and international economics at The University of Chicago (1977-80), the Graduate Institute of International Studies and the University of Geneva (1981-85). He is a consultant to governments, central banks and international financial organisations, in work relating to Latin America and the Middle East. He is the author of numerous articles and studies in theoretical and applied international macroeconomics, and of "Essays in Rational Expectations and Flexible Exchange Rates", (1981). Notes: Mean and standard deviation (s.d.) of growth rates of indicated variables. Real GDP is GDP at constant (1974=100) prices; CPI, Consumer Price Index (1974=100); LU$ is the Lebanese Pound/U.S. Dollar exchange rate (annual average); MI, M3 denote narrow and broad definitions of the money supply, with M3 including foreign currency deposits; International Reserves in $ held by the Bank of Lebanon, with gold valued at market prices; Foreign exchange reserves in $ held by Bank of Lebanon; Public Debt definition comprises outstanding Treasury Bills and Bonds, and loans and advances of the consolidated banking system to the government; Imports, Exports are from Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) published by the IMF. Government expenditures and revenue at constant prices.
Nasser Saidi is the President of Nasser Saidi & Associates a niche economic & financial advisory ... more Nasser Saidi is the President of Nasser Saidi & Associates a niche economic & financial advisory services company offering its services to governments, central banks, regulators and multinationals, including banks & financial institutions. He is Chair of the regional Clean Energy Business Council. He is also a member of the IMF’s Regional Advisory Group for MENA and Co-Chair of the OECD MENA Corporate Governance Working Group. Dr. Saidi served as Minister of Economy and Trade and Minister of Industry of Lebanon and First Vice-Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon for two mandates 1993-2003. He was the Chief Economist and Strategist of the Dubai International Financial Centre, 2006-2012. He is the founder & former CEO of the Hawkamah Institute for Corporate Governance & Mudara Institute of Directors. Dr. Nasser Saidi President of Nasser Saidi & Associates
International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal, 2018
This paper was prepared by Nasser Saidi & Associates to aid discussions during the MENA-OECD Work... more This paper was prepared by Nasser Saidi & Associates to aid discussions during the MENA-OECD Working Group on Investment and Trade‘s 2018 meeting. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region accounted for only 5% of global exports and 4.3% of total imports in 2017. Merchandise exports from the MENA region to the rest of the world stood at 893bn USD in 2017 (up from just under 250bn USD at the start of this century). MENA countries are particularly vulnerable to terms-of-trade shocks because of the volatility of their export earnings, caused by the high concentration of exports in primary commodities and exacerbated by the high concentration of export markets. The region can achieve greater economies of scale if each country can better use its comparative advantage through production sharing networks and integration into global value chains. There has been a significant shift in the region’s trade patterns toward Asia over the past few decades. Asia now accounts for about 55% of t...
Economic activity in the GCC countries was recovering after the Great Financial Crisis when the t... more Economic activity in the GCC countries was recovering after the Great Financial Crisis when the turmoil of the-Arab Spring‖ broke out. The economies of the UAE and Qatar remained largely immune to the region's troubles, underscoring the countries' ability to act as a safe haven during times of turmoil. A strong recovery in oil prices during 2011 and higher levels of government spending improved growth performance, with the IMF forecasting real GDP of the GCC at 7.2% in 2011 compared to 5.4% in the previous year. The hydrocarbon sector has continued to account for the bulk of GDP in a number of GCC countries (though not the UAE or Bahrain) 2 even as the GCC countries embarked on policies to enable
Essays on Rational Expectations and Flexible Exchange Rates
... Essays on rational expectations and flexible exchange rates. Post a Comment. CONTRIBUTORS: Au... more ... Essays on rational expectations and flexible exchange rates. Post a Comment. CONTRIBUTORS: Author: Saidi, Nasser Amin (b. 1950, d. ----. PUBLISHER: Garland Pub. (New York). SERIES TITLE: YEAR: 1982. PUB TYPE: Book (ISBN 0824041658 ). VOLUME/EDITION: ...
For Lebanon the decade of the nineties opened with the promise of stability, reconstruction and g... more For Lebanon the decade of the nineties opened with the promise of stability, reconstruction and growth. The Taif Agreement signaled an end to fifteen years of wars and violent conflict that had destroyed Lebanon's physical infrastructure, increased poverty and inequality in the distribution of income and wealth, reduced real per capita income by some 40 percent compared to pre-war levels,
Appendix 2-Timeline of the Gulf Monetary Union Year Month Gulf states ratify an agreement "to coo... more Appendix 2-Timeline of the Gulf Monetary Union Year Month Gulf states ratify an agreement "to coordinate their financial, monetary and banking policies ... including an endeavour to establish a joint currency". Dec Gulf rulers agree to draw up legislation for monetary union by 2005 and launch a single currency by 2010. The states agree to peg their currencies to the dollar until achieving monetary union. Jan Gulf agrees to reduce customs tariffs to 5% on all imported goods by Jan. 1, 2003 as part of customs union. Oct Gulf states say they are seeking advice from the European Central Bank on their monetary union programme. Dec Gulf rulers agree to complete a common market by the end of 2007. Jan Kuwait re-pegs its dinar to the dollar from a basket of currencies in preparation for monetary union. April UAE finance minister says a single Gulf currency is likely in 2007, three years ahead of schedule. Aug Gulf states should agree on the name of the single currency, its specifications and the mechanisms to put it into circulation by 2007, the GCC General Secretariat says. Aug GCC Supreme Council is studying the possibility of setting up a common central bank by mid-2006, Secretariat says. May Gulf states have made only "modest progress" toward the single currency, says Kuwait's central bank governor. Feb Gulf states are expected to agree on a joint monetary council by the end of the year to help harmonise monetary and fiscal policies, says the GCC General Secretariat. Sept UAE central bank governor says single currency should be free-floating by 2015. Nov Saudi central bank governor says there were "reservations" about the 2010 deadline but too early to modify. Dec Oman decides not to join monetary union by 2010 deadline, leaves door open for joining later. Apr Saudi central bank governor calls 2010 deadline "very ambitious". May Kuwait drops dollar peg, dealing blow to union plan. Sept Gulf central bankers agree to develop separate policies to tackle inflation after failing to inject momentum into a plan for monetary union. The 2010 deadline would be "difficult" to meet, the Saudi central bank governor says. Dec Gulf Arab rulers try to close ranks on currency policy and remain committed to a 2010 target date for monetary union, urging states to get it back on track. Feb Oman's central bank governor says Oman has decided not to join the monetary union indefinitely.
The IMF estimates that the "adjustment in the primary current account balance needed to lower gro... more The IMF estimates that the "adjustment in the primary current account balance needed to lower gross general government debt below 60 percent of GDP by 2030 in advanced economies" is 8¾ percentage points of GDP on average. 5 See the engaging lecture by Niall Ferguson, Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments, 2010.
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