Skip to main content

Naeem Salik

Followers

43

Following

9

Public Views

I am a security analyst, academic and writer. Have served in the military, taught at various Universities and worked at many international think tanks. My main area of expertise is in nuclear policy.
Address: New York, New York, United States

less

Georgetown University

Armando Marques-Guedes

UNL - New University of Lisbon

Emrah Safa Gürkan (ESG)

Istanbul 29 Mayis University

Ariel University

Sinderpal Singh

Nanyang Technological University

Institute of Management Sciences

De Montfort University

Universiteit Leiden

Sergi Kapanadze

Ilia State University

Manjari Chatterjee Miller

Boston University

Interests

Uploads

Papers by Naeem Salik

Dangers of Inadvertent Escalation in South Asia

Springer proceedings in physics, Dec 31, 2022

Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking,... more Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking, 'Can Nuclear Powers fight conventional wars with each other and avoid the use of nuclear weapons?' This question should always be kept in mind by all nuclear powers especially those with mutually hostile relationships. It is evident that the phenomenon of 'Inadvertent Escalation' cannot be understood without an understanding of the process of Escalation. South Asia despite the nuclearization of the region in 1998, has been facing one crisis after another each more belligerent than the preceding one and with the potential to wittingly or unwittingly embroil the antagonists into an irreversible escalation cycle with potentially catastrophic consequences. This paper is aimed at sensitising the decision makers in both countries to the dangers inherent in recurring crises especially in the absence of any overarching restraint regime and to make them understand that they might have escaped devastating results in the previous crises merely due to sheer good luck and not any prudence on their part. Case studies of February 2019 crisis between India and Pakistan and the March 2022 Stray Missile crisis have been employed to bring home the point. 12.1 Preamble India and Pakistan have a history of chequered relations with several wars and border skirmishes and decades old unresolved dispute over the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. It was hoped that after the nuclearization of the two countries in May 1998, an era of relative peace and stability will usher in South Asia. However, this hope was not to be realized and the two South Asian antagonists have been moving from one crisis to the other over the past two decades or so. Many of these crises were quite serious and carried the potential of serious escalation leading to major conventional conflict and then on to a potentially disastrous nuclear

Nuclear learning in Pakistan since 1998

Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence Stability

Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict, Sep 1, 2011

Pakistan’s Attitudes Toward China’s Involvement in Regional Conflicts Resolution

WORLD SCIENTIFIC eBooks, Feb 1, 2022

Nuclear Terrorism: Assessing the Danger

Strategic Analysis, Mar 4, 2014

Abstract This article attempts to make a realistic assessment of the danger of nuclear terrorism.... more Abstract This article attempts to make a realistic assessment of the danger of nuclear terrorism. While acknowledging the catastrophic consequences of an act of terrorism employing either an improvised nuclear device or a violent attack against a nuclear installation causing spread of lethal radioactivity, it also highlights the complexity of the challenges likely to be confronted by any would-be nuclear terrorist. The article concludes that while there is no room for complacency, and concerted efforts such as the NSS and other global initiatives like GICNT and ICSANT must continue to thwart any possibility of nuclear terrorism, the probability of such a disastrous event remains low.

The Evolution of Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine

India-Pakistan Nuclear Competition: Implications for Regional Stability

... programme, in response to India's nuclear programme, and initiated its missile programme... more ... programme, in response to India's nuclear programme, and initiated its missile programme in response to India's testing of Prithvi and Agni ... In October last year, India's National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon, in a speech at India's National Defence College, stated that ...

Missile issues in South Asia

The Nonproliferation Review, Jun 1, 2002

Arms Control, Confidence Building, and Nuclear Risk Reduction—A Pakistani Perspective

Palgrave Macmillan US eBooks, 2011

The world is witnessing a highly complex and turbulent security environment dominated by the ongo... more The world is witnessing a highly complex and turbulent security environment dominated by the ongoing war against international terrorism. There are heightened concerns about the efforts by states and nonstate actors to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the security situations in Iraq and Afghanistan remain volatile, and the Israeli-Palestinian problem continues on the boil. Amidst all this turmoil, encouraging signals occasionally emanate from South Asia, where India and Pakistan have not abandoned their on-again-off-again Composite Dialogue Process despite many setbacks.

India-Pakistan relations: how can they be improved?

Summary In the last 65 years, India and Pakistan have been unable to resolve their differences an... more Summary In the last 65 years, India and Pakistan have been unable to resolve their differences and develop a normal good neighbourly relationship, which could have benefitted people on both sides of the border. There have been several attempts to initiate a sustainable peace process, but most were either stillborn or abandoned in their infancy. Does it mean that the two countries are condemned to live in perpetual hostility? Can they overcome their historic rivalry and emulate the example of France and Germany in the post-World War II era? Are the problems besetting their bilateral relations so intractable that no resolution is possible? Can they set aside their differences for a while and build on commonalities of interests? Key points: There is a need to embrace an overarching strategic stability regime and to shun aggressive security doctrines to reduce the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The problems of terrorism and Non-State Actors need to be addressed jointly through institutionalised mechanisms. Water issues should be resolved through the mechanisms provided by the Indus Basin Treaty and should not be allowed to degenerate into a serious source of conflict. Confidence-building measures should be pursued to alleviate the “trust deficit” but should not be used as a substitute for the resolution of disputes. Economic co-operation and trade should be facilitated to develop mutuality of interest. India and Pakistan need to understand each other’s legitimate interests in Afghanistan and pursue them without coming into conflict with each other

International Cooperation to Tackle Future Pandemics

Springer Proceedings in Physics

As of March 2022, the official figures of the COVID-19 crisis have hit the stunning level of near... more As of March 2022, the official figures of the COVID-19 crisis have hit the stunning level of nearly 500 million cases and over 6 million deaths worldwide. However, aside from the death toll that has been directly caused by the SARS-CoV-2 infection, the pandemic has also created huge collateral damage to many essential services in most health systems across the world, thus indirectly causing further casualties. To the credit of the scientific community, extensive international cooperation has allowed to develop effective COVID-19 vaccines in record-breaking times. However, this is not enough and we must now ensure that we will continue to work toward the development of technologies and logistics infrastructures that will allow us to react much more swiftly, effectively and equitably when the next pandemic hits.

SVI Monograph Series No. 2 PDF

Emerging International Nuclear Disorder, 2023

Military-Pandemic

STRAFASIA, 2021

While COVID-19, the deadly Pandemic has unraveled the socioeconomic foundations and norms of the ... more While COVID-19, the deadly Pandemic has unraveled the socioeconomic foundations and norms of the international community not much has been said about the complications it has created for the militaries around the world. Military services have their own ethos built on espritde-corps and camaraderie. The soldiers are bound in closely knit organizational structures

2/22/23, 1:59 PM Going up the Escalation Ladder yet again! -Strafasia | Strategy, analysis, News and insight of Emerging Asia

STRAFASIA, 2019

RECURRING INDIA-PAKISTAN CRISES AND THE DANGER OF INADVERTENT ESCALATION

Strategic Thought Journal, 2023

Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking,... more Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking, 'Can Nuclear Powers fight conventional wars with each other and avoid the use of nuclear weapons?' This question should always be kept in mind by all nuclear powers especially those with mutually hostile relationships. It is evident that the phenomenon of 'Inadvertent Escalation' cannot be understood without an understanding of the process of Escalation. South Asia despite the nuclearization of the region in 1998, has been facing one crisis after another each more belligerent than the preceding one and with the potential to wittingly or unwittingly embroil the antagonists into an irreversible escalation cycle with potentially catastrophic consequences. This paper is aimed at sensitising the decision makers in both countries to the dangers inherent in recurring crises especially in the absence of any overarching restraint regime and to make them understand that they might have escaped devastating results in the previous crises merely due to sheer good luck and not any prudence on their part. A case study of February 2019 crisis between India and Pakistan has been employed to bring home the point.

Pakistan's Nuclearisation–Imperatives of National Security and Survival of a Smaller State

ipripak.org, 2010

... 1 Feroz Hassan Khan, “Nuclear Proliferation Motivations – Lessons from Pakistan,” Non-Prolife... more

Pakistan's Nuclear Force Structure -2025

CARNEGIE , 2016

Background: Pakistan"s current and prospective nuclear posture has been a subject of considerable... more Background: Pakistan"s current and prospective nuclear posture has been a subject of considerable speculation and debate especially in the recent past. Projections of the likely size of Pakistan"s nuclear arsenal in a decade from now have commonly described Pakistan"s nuclear arsenal as the "fastest growing arsenal in the world." 1 The alarmists estimate that by 2025, Pakistan will become the third largest nuclear weapon power 2 behind US and Russia having overtaken France, China and the UK, while some others conjecture that it may well become the fifth largest nuclear state in the world. 3 All these assessments are at best speculative guesstimates, involving a host of assumptions about not only the capacity and efficiency of Pakistan"s nuclear materials production facilities but also about its ability to convert these materials into weapons components, build an inventory of adequate numbers of delivery systems and above all its actual force goals. Moreover, these estimates also assume that Pakistan"s reprocessing and subsequent fabrication of weapons cores can keep pace with the production of plutonium by its production reactors at the Khushab Complex and that whatever material has been produced so far has been converted into warheads. While such estimates and report draw criticism and angry responses from Pakistani officials, a vast majority of the people in Pakistan feel elated on reading such reports.

LECTURE SERIES ECSSR, 2010

Inadvertent Escalation Final

CISS JOURNAL, 2022

Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking,... more Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking, 'Can Nuclear Powers fight conventional wars with each other and avoid the use of nuclear weapons?' This question should always be kept in mind by all nuclear powers especially those with mutually hostile relationships. It is evident that the phenomenon of 'Inadvertent Escalation' cannot be understood without an understanding of the process of Escalation. South Asia despite the nuclearization of the region in 1998, has been facing one crisis after another each more belligerent than the preceding one and with the potential to wittingly or unwittingly embroil the antagonists into an irreversible escalation cycle with potentially catastrophic consequences. This paper is aimed at sensitising the decision makers in both countries to the dangers inherent in recurring crises especially in the absence of any overarching restraint regime and to make them understand that they might have escaped devastating results in the previous crises merely due to sheer good luck and not any prudence on their part. A case study of February 2019 crisis between India and Pakistan has been employed to bring home the point.

PAKISTAN'S NUCLEARISATION -IMPERATIVES OF NATIONAL SECURITY AND SURVIVAL OF A SMALLER STATE

IPRI JOURNAL, 2010

Unable to find a satisfactory solution to its security dilemma in the face of a much larger and h... more Unable to find a satisfactory solution to its security dilemma in the face of a much larger and hostile neighbour, Pakistan sought security through external sources of support. As a result it became a part of the Western alliance system by joining the SEATO and CENTO in the mid 1950s and also signed a bilateral defence agreement with the US in 1959. However, during its war with India in September 1965, the US and Western allies imposed an arms embargo on both India and Pakistan, an act that hit Pakistan harder because of its greater dependence on that source of supply. Then, in the 1971 war, Pakistan's hope that the Americans and the Chinese would intervene on its side was dashed. As a result of the loss of its eastern wing, Pakistan became acutely aware of the fact that in the future it will have to stand on its own feet to defend itself. Pakistani leaders realized that given the disparity in size and resources it would be impossible for Pakistan to defend itself conventionally against India and it needed an equalizer in the shape of nuclear capability to safeguard its territorial integrity. They were also aware that India had already mastered most elements of the nuclear fuel cycle. If there were any doubts as to the viability/desirability of this option, these were swept away by the first Indian nuclear test in May 1974. Pakistan was, therefore, left with no option but to pursue its own military nuclear programme.

Dangers of Inadvertent Escalation in South Asia

Springer proceedings in physics, Dec 31, 2022

Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking,... more Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking, 'Can Nuclear Powers fight conventional wars with each other and avoid the use of nuclear weapons?' This question should always be kept in mind by all nuclear powers especially those with mutually hostile relationships. It is evident that the phenomenon of 'Inadvertent Escalation' cannot be understood without an understanding of the process of Escalation. South Asia despite the nuclearization of the region in 1998, has been facing one crisis after another each more belligerent than the preceding one and with the potential to wittingly or unwittingly embroil the antagonists into an irreversible escalation cycle with potentially catastrophic consequences. This paper is aimed at sensitising the decision makers in both countries to the dangers inherent in recurring crises especially in the absence of any overarching restraint regime and to make them understand that they might have escaped devastating results in the previous crises merely due to sheer good luck and not any prudence on their part. Case studies of February 2019 crisis between India and Pakistan and the March 2022 Stray Missile crisis have been employed to bring home the point. 12.1 Preamble India and Pakistan have a history of chequered relations with several wars and border skirmishes and decades old unresolved dispute over the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. It was hoped that after the nuclearization of the two countries in May 1998, an era of relative peace and stability will usher in South Asia. However, this hope was not to be realized and the two South Asian antagonists have been moving from one crisis to the other over the past two decades or so. Many of these crises were quite serious and carried the potential of serious escalation leading to major conventional conflict and then on to a potentially disastrous nuclear

Nuclear learning in Pakistan since 1998

Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence Stability

Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict, Sep 1, 2011

Pakistan’s Attitudes Toward China’s Involvement in Regional Conflicts Resolution

WORLD SCIENTIFIC eBooks, Feb 1, 2022

Nuclear Terrorism: Assessing the Danger

Strategic Analysis, Mar 4, 2014

Abstract This article attempts to make a realistic assessment of the danger of nuclear terrorism.... more Abstract This article attempts to make a realistic assessment of the danger of nuclear terrorism. While acknowledging the catastrophic consequences of an act of terrorism employing either an improvised nuclear device or a violent attack against a nuclear installation causing spread of lethal radioactivity, it also highlights the complexity of the challenges likely to be confronted by any would-be nuclear terrorist. The article concludes that while there is no room for complacency, and concerted efforts such as the NSS and other global initiatives like GICNT and ICSANT must continue to thwart any possibility of nuclear terrorism, the probability of such a disastrous event remains low.

The Evolution of Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine

India-Pakistan Nuclear Competition: Implications for Regional Stability

... programme, in response to India's nuclear programme, and initiated its missile programme... more ... programme, in response to India's nuclear programme, and initiated its missile programme in response to India's testing of Prithvi and Agni ... In October last year, India's National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon, in a speech at India's National Defence College, stated that ...

Missile issues in South Asia

The Nonproliferation Review, Jun 1, 2002

Arms Control, Confidence Building, and Nuclear Risk Reduction—A Pakistani Perspective

Palgrave Macmillan US eBooks, 2011

The world is witnessing a highly complex and turbulent security environment dominated by the ongo... more The world is witnessing a highly complex and turbulent security environment dominated by the ongoing war against international terrorism. There are heightened concerns about the efforts by states and nonstate actors to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the security situations in Iraq and Afghanistan remain volatile, and the Israeli-Palestinian problem continues on the boil. Amidst all this turmoil, encouraging signals occasionally emanate from South Asia, where India and Pakistan have not abandoned their on-again-off-again Composite Dialogue Process despite many setbacks.

India-Pakistan relations: how can they be improved?

Summary In the last 65 years, India and Pakistan have been unable to resolve their differences an... more Summary In the last 65 years, India and Pakistan have been unable to resolve their differences and develop a normal good neighbourly relationship, which could have benefitted people on both sides of the border. There have been several attempts to initiate a sustainable peace process, but most were either stillborn or abandoned in their infancy. Does it mean that the two countries are condemned to live in perpetual hostility? Can they overcome their historic rivalry and emulate the example of France and Germany in the post-World War II era? Are the problems besetting their bilateral relations so intractable that no resolution is possible? Can they set aside their differences for a while and build on commonalities of interests? Key points: There is a need to embrace an overarching strategic stability regime and to shun aggressive security doctrines to reduce the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The problems of terrorism and Non-State Actors need to be addressed jointly through institutionalised mechanisms. Water issues should be resolved through the mechanisms provided by the Indus Basin Treaty and should not be allowed to degenerate into a serious source of conflict. Confidence-building measures should be pursued to alleviate the “trust deficit” but should not be used as a substitute for the resolution of disputes. Economic co-operation and trade should be facilitated to develop mutuality of interest. India and Pakistan need to understand each other’s legitimate interests in Afghanistan and pursue them without coming into conflict with each other

International Cooperation to Tackle Future Pandemics

Springer Proceedings in Physics

As of March 2022, the official figures of the COVID-19 crisis have hit the stunning level of near... more As of March 2022, the official figures of the COVID-19 crisis have hit the stunning level of nearly 500 million cases and over 6 million deaths worldwide. However, aside from the death toll that has been directly caused by the SARS-CoV-2 infection, the pandemic has also created huge collateral damage to many essential services in most health systems across the world, thus indirectly causing further casualties. To the credit of the scientific community, extensive international cooperation has allowed to develop effective COVID-19 vaccines in record-breaking times. However, this is not enough and we must now ensure that we will continue to work toward the development of technologies and logistics infrastructures that will allow us to react much more swiftly, effectively and equitably when the next pandemic hits.

SVI Monograph Series No. 2 PDF

Emerging International Nuclear Disorder, 2023

Military-Pandemic

STRAFASIA, 2021

While COVID-19, the deadly Pandemic has unraveled the socioeconomic foundations and norms of the ... more While COVID-19, the deadly Pandemic has unraveled the socioeconomic foundations and norms of the international community not much has been said about the complications it has created for the militaries around the world. Military services have their own ethos built on espritde-corps and camaraderie. The soldiers are bound in closely knit organizational structures

2/22/23, 1:59 PM Going up the Escalation Ladder yet again! -Strafasia | Strategy, analysis, News and insight of Emerging Asia

STRAFASIA, 2019

RECURRING INDIA-PAKISTAN CRISES AND THE DANGER OF INADVERTENT ESCALATION

Strategic Thought Journal, 2023

Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking,... more Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking, 'Can Nuclear Powers fight conventional wars with each other and avoid the use of nuclear weapons?' This question should always be kept in mind by all nuclear powers especially those with mutually hostile relationships. It is evident that the phenomenon of 'Inadvertent Escalation' cannot be understood without an understanding of the process of Escalation. South Asia despite the nuclearization of the region in 1998, has been facing one crisis after another each more belligerent than the preceding one and with the potential to wittingly or unwittingly embroil the antagonists into an irreversible escalation cycle with potentially catastrophic consequences. This paper is aimed at sensitising the decision makers in both countries to the dangers inherent in recurring crises especially in the absence of any overarching restraint regime and to make them understand that they might have escaped devastating results in the previous crises merely due to sheer good luck and not any prudence on their part. A case study of February 2019 crisis between India and Pakistan has been employed to bring home the point.

Pakistan's Nuclearisation–Imperatives of National Security and Survival of a Smaller State

ipripak.org, 2010

... 1 Feroz Hassan Khan, “Nuclear Proliferation Motivations – Lessons from Pakistan,” Non-Prolife... more

Pakistan's Nuclear Force Structure -2025

CARNEGIE , 2016

Background: Pakistan"s current and prospective nuclear posture has been a subject of considerable... more Background: Pakistan"s current and prospective nuclear posture has been a subject of considerable speculation and debate especially in the recent past. Projections of the likely size of Pakistan"s nuclear arsenal in a decade from now have commonly described Pakistan"s nuclear arsenal as the "fastest growing arsenal in the world." 1 The alarmists estimate that by 2025, Pakistan will become the third largest nuclear weapon power 2 behind US and Russia having overtaken France, China and the UK, while some others conjecture that it may well become the fifth largest nuclear state in the world. 3 All these assessments are at best speculative guesstimates, involving a host of assumptions about not only the capacity and efficiency of Pakistan"s nuclear materials production facilities but also about its ability to convert these materials into weapons components, build an inventory of adequate numbers of delivery systems and above all its actual force goals. Moreover, these estimates also assume that Pakistan"s reprocessing and subsequent fabrication of weapons cores can keep pace with the production of plutonium by its production reactors at the Khushab Complex and that whatever material has been produced so far has been converted into warheads. While such estimates and report draw criticism and angry responses from Pakistani officials, a vast majority of the people in Pakistan feel elated on reading such reports.

LECTURE SERIES ECSSR, 2010

Inadvertent Escalation Final

CISS JOURNAL, 2022

Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking,... more Barry Posen has, in his study on Inadvertent Escalation, raised a very pertinent question asking, 'Can Nuclear Powers fight conventional wars with each other and avoid the use of nuclear weapons?' This question should always be kept in mind by all nuclear powers especially those with mutually hostile relationships. It is evident that the phenomenon of 'Inadvertent Escalation' cannot be understood without an understanding of the process of Escalation. South Asia despite the nuclearization of the region in 1998, has been facing one crisis after another each more belligerent than the preceding one and with the potential to wittingly or unwittingly embroil the antagonists into an irreversible escalation cycle with potentially catastrophic consequences. This paper is aimed at sensitising the decision makers in both countries to the dangers inherent in recurring crises especially in the absence of any overarching restraint regime and to make them understand that they might have escaped devastating results in the previous crises merely due to sheer good luck and not any prudence on their part. A case study of February 2019 crisis between India and Pakistan has been employed to bring home the point.

PAKISTAN'S NUCLEARISATION -IMPERATIVES OF NATIONAL SECURITY AND SURVIVAL OF A SMALLER STATE

IPRI JOURNAL, 2010

Unable to find a satisfactory solution to its security dilemma in the face of a much larger and h... more Unable to find a satisfactory solution to its security dilemma in the face of a much larger and hostile neighbour, Pakistan sought security through external sources of support. As a result it became a part of the Western alliance system by joining the SEATO and CENTO in the mid 1950s and also signed a bilateral defence agreement with the US in 1959. However, during its war with India in September 1965, the US and Western allies imposed an arms embargo on both India and Pakistan, an act that hit Pakistan harder because of its greater dependence on that source of supply. Then, in the 1971 war, Pakistan's hope that the Americans and the Chinese would intervene on its side was dashed. As a result of the loss of its eastern wing, Pakistan became acutely aware of the fact that in the future it will have to stand on its own feet to defend itself. Pakistani leaders realized that given the disparity in size and resources it would be impossible for Pakistan to defend itself conventionally against India and it needed an equalizer in the shape of nuclear capability to safeguard its territorial integrity. They were also aware that India had already mastered most elements of the nuclear fuel cycle. If there were any doubts as to the viability/desirability of this option, these were swept away by the first Indian nuclear test in May 1974. Pakistan was, therefore, left with no option but to pursue its own military nuclear programme.