Introducción. Avances recientes en la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a la macroeconomía pu... more Introducción. Avances recientes en la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a la macroeconomía pueden iluminar la naturaleza del proceso inflacionario en las economías de alta inflación, así como las dificultades que en ese ambiente afrontan las políticas de estabilización. Entendemos por "economías de alta inflación a los países llamados de inflación cronica, donde ésta parece tener vida propia
Policy Research Working Paper Series, Oct 31, 1990
ABSTRACT This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"c... more ABSTRACT This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"chronic inflation"countries -- countries with a long inflationary history above the rates in industrialized countries, where labor and capital markets are adjusted to function in the inflationary environment. The sample is based on a number of Latin American countries and Israel. The main finding is that stabilization processes in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve trade off in the medium run. Specifically, stabilization progams in these countries are often associated with a business cycle, beginning with a boom and ending with a recession. This finding relates to the programs which used the exchange rate as the main nominal anchor, referred to as"exchange rate based stabilization"(ERBS). This paper documents the main features of the business cycle phenomenon in ERBSs, and tries to understand its causes and to derive some policy implications for future stabilizations. It refers to relevant features of stabilizations in industrial low-inflation economies and in hyperinflationary episodes, and then turns to chronic inflation countries. It highlights the main facts concerning the business cycles in these experiences and discusses the differences between ERBSs and disinflation programs which use money as the nominal anchor. This paper concludes with issues related to the countercyclical policies.
Policy Research Working Paper Series, Feb 28, 1993
In high inflation economies exchange-rate-based stabilizations typically start with a boom, with ... more In high inflation economies exchange-rate-based stabilizations typically start with a boom, with the recession coming later. In contrast, in similar programs in the moderate inflation European economies, the recession generally appears upfront. When such programs result in a boom, it is driven by different forces than in the high inflation economies. PoiP ReauhWo*ingPapesdissminatthcifndingsofwozkinprocss and encouzage the exchange of ideas smougBank staffand lohzinumetedhadevelopmcntiTues.Thespaps,eddietedbytheRcuchAdvisozyStaff.eanythenamesoftheaudio.rdlect a lyd eivicandshouldbusmed and cited aceordingly.Ihefindings. intectations,and conclusionsawthe authomown. Thc yshould ne betantbued tothe Wodd Bank, its Board of DiNcMors. its managanent, or any of itsmnber countie
Cema Working Papers Serie Documentos De Trabajo, Aug 1, 1999
This paper evaluates the usefulness of a currency board regime based on Argentina's experience. A... more This paper evaluates the usefulness of a currency board regime based on Argentina's experience. Argentina adopted the currency board in March 1991 to put an end to a long history of large macroeconomic imbalances and high inflation that culminated in the hyperinflation process of 1989-91. The regime has been extremely successful in restoring macroeconomic stability and ensuring low inflation. The adoption of a tight fiscal stance, and of sound polices to strengthen the financial system were critical to ensure the resilience of the economy to respond to adverse external shocks. The paper will argue that a strict exchange rate rule like the one used in Argentina can be a strong alternative to other exchange rate regimes to ensure macroeconomic stability in a globalized world with highly integrated capital markets. Index 1. Introduction 2. Inflation and stabilization in Argentina 3. The Convertibility Plan 3.1. The Monetary Regime 3.2. The Fiscal Adjustment 3.3. Financial Reform and the Capital Market 4. The Results of the Convertibility Plan 4.1. The Initial Results 4.2. The Convertibility Plan during the Tequila Effect 4.3. The Banking System during the Tequila Effect 4.4 Dealing with Failed Banks 5. The Policy Response to the Tequila 6. Argentina during the Crises of the late Nineties 6.1 Macroeconomic Performance 6.2 The Banking System 7. Conclusions
The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of t... more The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the World Bank or to its affiliated organizationso The findings, interpretations~ and conclusions are the results of research supported by the Bank; they do not necessarily represent official policy of the Banko The designations employed 9 the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or its affiliates concerning the legal status of any country~ territory~ city, area, or of its authorities~ or concerning the del!mitations of its boundaries~ or national affiliationa
ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina on economic perf... more ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina on economic performance. It shows that the combination of a fixed exchange rate and far reaching structural reforms was successful through most of the nineties, as Argentina succeeded in eliminating inflation and it enjoyed its highest rates of growth since the 1920s. Nevertheless, at the end of 1998 Argentina entered a severe recession from which it has not yet recovered. A deterioration in the external environment as the dollar appreciated and less financial capital flowed to emerging markets required a reduction in nominal wages (especially in the public sector) and in government expenditures which did not take place. The lack of response eroded confidence, tax revenues fell as a result of the recession and financing disappeared. The exchange rate system finally collapsed in early 2002 and the government declared a default on public debt leading to what seems to be the most serious economic crisis that Argentina has ever experienced. Comparative Economic Studies (2002) 44, 83–102; doi:10.1057/ces.2002.10
Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 08853908608523605, Jul 30, 2007
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology.... more ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology. The paper studies the problem from the perspective of a small, labor abundant open economy that does not generate its own technology. The economic planners must choose between two technologies, one better geared toward the production of labor intensive goods, the other to capital intensive goods. It is shown that the choice of technology not only will affect the welfare level, but it can also reverse the pattern of international trade. It is also shown that the imposition of a tariff can lead the planner to choose a different technology from the one that is optimal under free trade.
Introducción. Avances recientes en la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a la macroeconomía pu... more Introducción. Avances recientes en la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a la macroeconomía pueden iluminar la naturaleza del proceso inflacionario en las economías de alta inflación, así como las dificultades que en ese ambiente afrontan las políticas de estabilización. Entendemos por "economías de alta inflación a los países llamados de inflación cronica, donde ésta parece tener vida propia
Policy Research Working Paper Series, Oct 31, 1990
ABSTRACT This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"c... more ABSTRACT This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"chronic inflation"countries -- countries with a long inflationary history above the rates in industrialized countries, where labor and capital markets are adjusted to function in the inflationary environment. The sample is based on a number of Latin American countries and Israel. The main finding is that stabilization processes in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve trade off in the medium run. Specifically, stabilization progams in these countries are often associated with a business cycle, beginning with a boom and ending with a recession. This finding relates to the programs which used the exchange rate as the main nominal anchor, referred to as"exchange rate based stabilization"(ERBS). This paper documents the main features of the business cycle phenomenon in ERBSs, and tries to understand its causes and to derive some policy implications for future stabilizations. It refers to relevant features of stabilizations in industrial low-inflation economies and in hyperinflationary episodes, and then turns to chronic inflation countries. It highlights the main facts concerning the business cycles in these experiences and discusses the differences between ERBSs and disinflation programs which use money as the nominal anchor. This paper concludes with issues related to the countercyclical policies.
Policy Research Working Paper Series, Feb 28, 1993
In high inflation economies exchange-rate-based stabilizations typically start with a boom, with ... more In high inflation economies exchange-rate-based stabilizations typically start with a boom, with the recession coming later. In contrast, in similar programs in the moderate inflation European economies, the recession generally appears upfront. When such programs result in a boom, it is driven by different forces than in the high inflation economies. PoiP ReauhWo*ingPapesdissminatthcifndingsofwozkinprocss and encouzage the exchange of ideas smougBank staffand lohzinumetedhadevelopmcntiTues.Thespaps,eddietedbytheRcuchAdvisozyStaff.eanythenamesoftheaudio.rdlect a lyd eivicandshouldbusmed and cited aceordingly.Ihefindings. intectations,and conclusionsawthe authomown. Thc yshould ne betantbued tothe Wodd Bank, its Board of DiNcMors. its managanent, or any of itsmnber countie
Cema Working Papers Serie Documentos De Trabajo, Aug 1, 1999
This paper evaluates the usefulness of a currency board regime based on Argentina's experience. A... more This paper evaluates the usefulness of a currency board regime based on Argentina's experience. Argentina adopted the currency board in March 1991 to put an end to a long history of large macroeconomic imbalances and high inflation that culminated in the hyperinflation process of 1989-91. The regime has been extremely successful in restoring macroeconomic stability and ensuring low inflation. The adoption of a tight fiscal stance, and of sound polices to strengthen the financial system were critical to ensure the resilience of the economy to respond to adverse external shocks. The paper will argue that a strict exchange rate rule like the one used in Argentina can be a strong alternative to other exchange rate regimes to ensure macroeconomic stability in a globalized world with highly integrated capital markets. Index 1. Introduction 2. Inflation and stabilization in Argentina 3. The Convertibility Plan 3.1. The Monetary Regime 3.2. The Fiscal Adjustment 3.3. Financial Reform and the Capital Market 4. The Results of the Convertibility Plan 4.1. The Initial Results 4.2. The Convertibility Plan during the Tequila Effect 4.3. The Banking System during the Tequila Effect 4.4 Dealing with Failed Banks 5. The Policy Response to the Tequila 6. Argentina during the Crises of the late Nineties 6.1 Macroeconomic Performance 6.2 The Banking System 7. Conclusions
The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of t... more The World Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the World Bank or to its affiliated organizationso The findings, interpretations~ and conclusions are the results of research supported by the Bank; they do not necessarily represent official policy of the Banko The designations employed 9 the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or its affiliates concerning the legal status of any country~ territory~ city, area, or of its authorities~ or concerning the del!mitations of its boundaries~ or national affiliationa
ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina on economic perf... more ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina on economic performance. It shows that the combination of a fixed exchange rate and far reaching structural reforms was successful through most of the nineties, as Argentina succeeded in eliminating inflation and it enjoyed its highest rates of growth since the 1920s. Nevertheless, at the end of 1998 Argentina entered a severe recession from which it has not yet recovered. A deterioration in the external environment as the dollar appreciated and less financial capital flowed to emerging markets required a reduction in nominal wages (especially in the public sector) and in government expenditures which did not take place. The lack of response eroded confidence, tax revenues fell as a result of the recession and financing disappeared. The exchange rate system finally collapsed in early 2002 and the government declared a default on public debt leading to what seems to be the most serious economic crisis that Argentina has ever experienced. Comparative Economic Studies (2002) 44, 83–102; doi:10.1057/ces.2002.10
Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 08853908608523605, Jul 30, 2007
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology.... more ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology. The paper studies the problem from the perspective of a small, labor abundant open economy that does not generate its own technology. The economic planners must choose between two technologies, one better geared toward the production of labor intensive goods, the other to capital intensive goods. It is shown that the choice of technology not only will affect the welfare level, but it can also reverse the pattern of international trade. It is also shown that the imposition of a tariff can lead the planner to choose a different technology from the one that is optimal under free trade.
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Papers by Miguel Kiguel