Skip to main content

Miguel Esteban

Followers

235

Following

16

Co-authors

13

Public Views

Aingaran Sellaiya

University of Southampton

Louisiana State University

Fordham University

Eleonora Rohland

Bielefeld University

Hani Mahmassani

Northwestern University

George Papathanassiou

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Viacheslav Kuleshov

Stockholm University

Ain Shams University

Josif Josifovski

Ss. Cyril & Methodius University in Skopje

Future University ,Egypt.

Interests

Uploads

Papers by Miguel Esteban

Time-Scale in Framing Disaster Risk Reduction in Sustainability

Science for Sustainable Societies, 2019

Disaster Risk Reduction is one of the most important topics in sustainability science, seeking to... more Disaster Risk Reduction is one of the most important topics in sustainability science, seeking to examine the vulnerability and resilience of human life and society to natural hazards through the reduction and management of risks. However, disasters are caused by many different types of natural hazard events that take place in exposed and vulnerable areas across time spans. The size of the area and times-scale of the impact can also differ greatly. Possible actions to improve preparedness, countermeasures, actors or stakeholders involved, and person(s) in charge of these measures vary depending on the type of disaster. This chapter describes two different types of coastal issues, namely tsunamis and sea level rise, and the types of countermeasures available to either Japanese coastal towns or small coral islands. How these issues are perceived and dealt with will then be discussed from the point of view of timescales , which affect the human perception of the problem.

Overcoming negative disaster images: how Fukushima’s sake breweries challenged negative stereotypes and rebuilt its regional brand

Journal of Tourism Futures, 2021

Purpose This study adopts the multi-step model developed by Avraham and Ketter (2008), for alteri... more Purpose This study adopts the multi-step model developed by Avraham and Ketter (2008), for altering place images, based on past academic literature on destination marketing. The purpose of this study is to determine the state of Fukushima’s sake breweries before and after 2011, and its strategies for overcoming negative images and strengthening regional branding. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven sake breweries in Fukushima. Design/methodology/approach Fukushima Prefecture, located in northern Japan, is renowned for its hot springs, lakes, historical architecture, gastronomy, and particularly its sake (or Japanese rice wine). However, pre-existing problems such as the prefecture’s changing demographics and economic development, the effects of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and fears of radioactive contamination have made consumers reluctant to consume products from the region or to visit the prefecture. This study illustrates how various sake brewery ...

Feasibility Study of Hybrid Wind-Solar Stand-Alone Energy Systems for Remote Regions in Developing Countries: The Case of Post-Soviet Uzbekistan

International Journal of Sustainable Future for Human Security, 2019

Uzbekistan is an emerging economy in the heart of Central Asia. Due to the country's diverse geog... more Uzbekistan is an emerging economy in the heart of Central Asia. Due to the country's diverse geographic and climatic conditions the population is unevenly distributed among its regions. This fact makes some small settlements in remote areas prone to electricity supply disruption, sometimes caused by outdated infrastructure and high transmission losses, which can cause system failures during peaks in power demand. As a result people in such regions become socialy and economically isolated. Given this situation, some remote villages opt to use diesel generators and other fuel alternatives which have a significant environmental footprint. This paper uses the case study of Uzbekistan, as an example of a developing post-Socialist country undergoing an economic transition from planned to market economy to analyse if hybrid wind or solar energy systems are economically viable, compared to diesel run systems. In order to do so authors fed real meteorological data for six selected regions in Uzbekistan into the HOMER software. Further, the authors investigate changes in monetary policy recently taking place in the country and question the consistency of such changes with the course taken towards increasing the share of renewables in power generation. The paper concludes that although renewables appear to be economically viable (even in a fossil-fuel rich country), the government needs to synchronise different policy tools in order

Adaptation to sea level rise on low coral islands: Lessons from recent events

Ocean & Coastal Management, 2019

100% renewable energy system in Japan: Smoothening and ancillary services

Applied Energy, 2018

In the aftermath of the Paris Agreements, many countries around the globe have pledged to reduce ... more In the aftermath of the Paris Agreements, many countries around the globe have pledged to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions being released into the atmosphere. To do so, it is important that the amount of renewable energy in the electricity grid increases, though there are worries of the capacity of the grid to cope with intermittent energy sources. To assess the feasibility of a 100% renewable energy system in Japan, the authors conducted an hourly simulation of future electricity production based on wind, solar and tidal data in Japan. The system was shown to be stable, and the authors calculated the required capacity of electrical batteries that would be necessary to balance such a system.

Migration as an Adaptation Strategy for Atoll Island States

International Migration, 2017

Adopting a policy of migration can be one possible adaptation strategy against climate change. It... more Adopting a policy of migration can be one possible adaptation strategy against climate change. It has been forecasted that if the worst predictions regarding climate change and sea level rise become reality atolls around the world could become submerged in the future. This would render them uninhabitable and could lead to questions about whether Atoll Island States could still be considered as States. The international community has been avoiding any commitment to create a convention that would protect people displaced by climate change. In order to solve such potential problems, the authors will argue that a framework of bilateral agreements, initiatives, and national policies could constitute a viable solution for the various interested parties. The article will discuss the characteristics of Atoll Island States, touching on possible solutions for climate change displacement which have been discussed by the governments and civil society of the affected States.

気候変動の影響を受けた台風による波浪・高潮被害の変化予測 ―気象・波浪・高潮・潮汐統合モデルの開発と長期予測―

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering), 2012

Storm Surge Heights and Damage Caused by the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan Along the Leyte Gulf Coast

Coastal Engineering Journal, 2016

Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) struck the islands of Leyte and Samar, the central part of the Philippin... more Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) struck the islands of Leyte and Samar, the central part of the Philippines, on 8 November 2013, bringing large-scale devastation to coastal areas due to the high winds and large storm surge and waves associated with it. In order to obtain the distribution of storm surge heights and damage covering the wide stretch of affected coastline, the authors carried out a series of field surveys in the aftermath of the typhoon (in December 2013, May 2014, and October 2014). In the present paper, the authors detailed the results of these field surveys and summarized the characteristics of the storm surge and main causes of the damage, especially focusing on the Leyte Gulf coast, which is surrounded by the eastern coast of Leyte and the southern coast of Samar. Finally, the wide range of types of storm surge disasters were also discussed by comparing Typhoon Haiyan with other recent major events.

Storm surge and evacuation in urban areas during the peak of a storm

Coastal Engineering, 2016

The present paper examines the impact of floodwater caused by the storm surge brought about by Ty... more The present paper examines the impact of floodwater caused by the storm surge brought about by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, focusing on downtown Tacloban in Leyte Island, the Philippines. A reliable numerical model for predicting such flooding was developed by calibrating the results of field investigations, including footage from a video clip taken during the storm surge. The simulation reveals that flow velocities along the streets in downtown Tacloban reached up to 7m/s due to flow contraction along the high-density blocks of houses, and how water levels reached their peak in just 10 minutes. According to the depth-velocity product criteria, often used for evaluating the vulnerability of people and buildings to floodwaters, only 8% of the length of streets in downtown Tacloban were within the safe limits that allow pedestrian evacuation. Based on these findings, the present research concludes that pedestrian evacuation in the middle of a storm surge generated by a strong typhoon is a high-risk behaviour. Thus, clearly and objectively, evacuation during this time should not be encouraged, even when seawater intrudes the houses of local residents. In this respect, it would appear imperative that prior to the arrival of the typhoon all residents should evacuate areas at risk of being flooded. Though the flood height was significant in the downtown area, the damage to these houses was limited. If it was not possible for some reason to evacuate prior to the arrival of the typhoon, those in solid houses should first consider vertical evacuation and the possibility that they could survive in their place, rather than courageously evacuating in an unpredictable water flow.

Introduction: Lessons from the Last 10 Years of Coastal Disasters

Handbook of Coastal Disaster Mitigation for Engineers and Planners, 2015

Comprehensive Numerical Simulation of Waves Caused by Typhoon Using a Meteorology-Wave-Storm Surge-Tide Coupled Model

Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 2012

The present study focuses on the risks of storm surge caused by future increases in typhoon inten... more The present study focuses on the risks of storm surge caused by future increases in typhoon intensity due to climate change. These risks were analyzed by integrating weather, wave, storm surge and tide prediction systems into a new simulation methodology. This model, which the authors developed by themselves, makes it possible to calculate the weather fields of typhoons in the past as well as in the future on the basis of meteorology and can simulate waves in a complex geographical area, in contrast with many previous storm surge simulation methods which were not based on accurate meteorological models. The model was verified to accurately reproduce historical typhoons and waves and thus is a useful tool for the analysis of future climate risks.

Recent tsunamis events and preparedness: Development of tsunami awareness in Indonesia, Chile and Japan

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2013

ABSTRACT Since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, there is a growing awareness of the risks that tsun... more ABSTRACT Since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, there is a growing awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that the population of some countries such as Chile and Japan were aware of such events, many other places had virtually not heard about such phenomenon before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of major tsunamis in recent years has led to a heightened state of tsunami awareness in many areas of the world, which can be described by an increased knowledge, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. However, the response of different elements of society to tsunami warnings nowadays still appears to be inadequate a times, pointing to lack of awareness by at least some individuals, an over-reliance in defence mechanisms or lacking in the transmission of knowledge from previous events. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis observations made by the authors during field visits to areas afflicted by the last three major events (Chile, Indonesia, and Japan). The level of tsunami awareness prior to these events will be explored through an analysis on the existence of multiple layers of safety against tsunami developed by previous generations, and whether these had been preserved over time. The potential impact of these major tsunamis in the development of tsunami awareness will be analysed based on questionnaires that indicate the willingness of local coastal communities to invest in disaster preparedness.

Analysis of Tsunami Culture in Countries Affected by Recent Tsunamis

Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2013

Since 2004 there is a growing global awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communi... more Since 2004 there is a growing global awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that these events were already an intrinsic part of the culture of some countries (such as Chile and Japan), in many other places they had been virtually unheard of before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of these events in recent years has led to the emergence of a "tsunami culture" in many areas of the world, which has resulted in increased awareness, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis questionnaires carried out by the authors during their own field visits to the last three major events (in Japan, Chile and Indonesia), and interpret these through the willingness of coastal communities to build protection measures along the shore and the impact that these can have on sustainable development.

2010年チリ沖地震津波災害の現地調査

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering), 2011

At 3:34 local time on February 27, 2010, a large earthquake of magnitude Mw 8.8 generated tsunami... more At 3:34 local time on February 27, 2010, a large earthquake of magnitude Mw 8.8 generated tsunami that caused heavy damage to the coastal area of Chile. This paper aims to clarify the characteristics of this tsunami disaster by analyzing the field survey data as well as the effects of bathymetry on tsunami behavior. Tsunami inundation height was 4-10 m in a wide area of Chilean coast and the maximum run-up height was over 20 m. The reflection at the edge of a continental shelf caused several waves to attack the coast. Due to the large earthquake, residents were able to feel the danger of tsunami. The knowledge about tsunami has spread throughout residents living in coastal area, following the 1960 Chile Tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The caution by earthquake and the widespread knowledge about tsunami reduced victims in Chile.

Stability of Rubble Mound Breakwaters Against Solitary Waves

Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 2012

No formulas currently exist to design armour units against tsunami attack. To develop such formul... more No formulas currently exist to design armour units against tsunami attack. To develop such formulae, laboratory experiments were carried out to clarify the failure mechanism of these types of structures. Also, the behavior of armour units against real cases of tsunami attack during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami were evaluated. Both the results of the laboratory experiments and the breakwaters studied in the field where then analyzed in terms of well established formulas such as that of Van der Meer or Hudson. The design of structures that only fail partially during a given tsunami event (“resilient” or “tenacious” structures) should be prioritized in future counter-measures, and in order to make it possible to construct such structures a modification of the Hudson formula for their design is proposed.

Erratum to: The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan

Natural Hazards, 2010

The following paragraphs should be changed due to a handling error of the manuscript. 1st paragra... more The following paragraphs should be changed due to a handling error of the manuscript. 1st paragraph: Ongoing research projects aim now at geo-coding socioeconomic key indicators, such as economic income or population density. 3 A… ''World Bank report on Natural Disaster Hotspots, for example, highlights areas with a relatively high loss risk from one or more natural disasters including tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, volcanoes, earthquakes and landslides (Dilley et al. 2005). Spatial environmental data (on different types of land cover, for example forests) are available through global environmental assessments, such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Data on natural hazards, combined with subnational distribution of population, economic income, topography and land use can help to identify areas that are at a relatively high economic loss risk due to natural hazards, such as tropical cyclones.'' 2nd paragraph: ''In the present research, however, only a fairly simplistic socio-economical model was taken into account, which does not consider future socioeconomic changes or economic growth. Though this could be seen as fairly simplistic, the Japanese population and The online version of the original article can be found under

Stability of Breakwater Armor Units against Tsunami Attacks

Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 2014

The design of breakwater armour units against tsunami attacks has received little attention in th... more The design of breakwater armour units against tsunami attacks has received little attention in the past because of the comparative low frequency of these events and the rarity of structures designed specifically to withstand them. However, field surveys of recent events, such as the 2011 Great Eastern Japan Earthquake Tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, have shown flaws in the design of protection structures. During these extreme events, many breakwaters suffered partial or catastrophic damage. Although it is to be expected that most normal structures fail due to such high order events, practicing engineers need to possess tools to design certain important breakwaters that should not fail even during level 2 events. Research into the design of critical structures that only partially fail (i.e., "resilient" or "tenacious" structures) during a very extreme level 2 tsunami event should be prioritized in the future, and in this sense the present paper proposes a formula that allows the estimation of armour unit damage depending on the tsunami wave height.

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

Climatic Change, 2013

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chain... more With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane "Sandy". In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this paper highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both "soft" and "hard" adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the paper highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.

Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

Climatic Change, 2009

The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible fu... more The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios.

Implications of paradigm shift in Japan’s electricity security of supply: A multi-dimensional indicator assessment

Applied Energy, 2014

ABSTRACT The present study developed a series of indicators to assess the electricity generation ... more ABSTRACT The present study developed a series of indicators to assess the electricity generation security of supply under different energy portfolios in Japan in a post-3/11 context. A baseline and four alternative scenarios were designed assuming different shares of fossil fuel and nuclear thermal power and renewables in a 2030 timeframe. The analysis revealed that expanding endogenous energy resources together with a reduction of nuclear power and fossil fuel technologies appears to be a promising strategy to enhance electricity security of supply. Under this strategy imported fossil fuel dependence would decrease to 69.3%, whereas environmental impacts would decline 15-22%, compared to pre-Fukushima levels (baseline scenario). However, an immediate transition to grid-connected renewable energies is not realistic and would increase stress on the system reliability in the short-term, given infrastructure and technical constraints. Investment should be channelised to develop storage and back-up systems, as well as de-centralisation of supply systems to increase energy system resilience and security of supply.

Time-Scale in Framing Disaster Risk Reduction in Sustainability

Science for Sustainable Societies, 2019

Disaster Risk Reduction is one of the most important topics in sustainability science, seeking to... more Disaster Risk Reduction is one of the most important topics in sustainability science, seeking to examine the vulnerability and resilience of human life and society to natural hazards through the reduction and management of risks. However, disasters are caused by many different types of natural hazard events that take place in exposed and vulnerable areas across time spans. The size of the area and times-scale of the impact can also differ greatly. Possible actions to improve preparedness, countermeasures, actors or stakeholders involved, and person(s) in charge of these measures vary depending on the type of disaster. This chapter describes two different types of coastal issues, namely tsunamis and sea level rise, and the types of countermeasures available to either Japanese coastal towns or small coral islands. How these issues are perceived and dealt with will then be discussed from the point of view of timescales , which affect the human perception of the problem.

Overcoming negative disaster images: how Fukushima’s sake breweries challenged negative stereotypes and rebuilt its regional brand

Journal of Tourism Futures, 2021

Purpose This study adopts the multi-step model developed by Avraham and Ketter (2008), for alteri... more Purpose This study adopts the multi-step model developed by Avraham and Ketter (2008), for altering place images, based on past academic literature on destination marketing. The purpose of this study is to determine the state of Fukushima’s sake breweries before and after 2011, and its strategies for overcoming negative images and strengthening regional branding. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven sake breweries in Fukushima. Design/methodology/approach Fukushima Prefecture, located in northern Japan, is renowned for its hot springs, lakes, historical architecture, gastronomy, and particularly its sake (or Japanese rice wine). However, pre-existing problems such as the prefecture’s changing demographics and economic development, the effects of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and fears of radioactive contamination have made consumers reluctant to consume products from the region or to visit the prefecture. This study illustrates how various sake brewery ...

Feasibility Study of Hybrid Wind-Solar Stand-Alone Energy Systems for Remote Regions in Developing Countries: The Case of Post-Soviet Uzbekistan

International Journal of Sustainable Future for Human Security, 2019

Uzbekistan is an emerging economy in the heart of Central Asia. Due to the country's diverse geog... more Uzbekistan is an emerging economy in the heart of Central Asia. Due to the country's diverse geographic and climatic conditions the population is unevenly distributed among its regions. This fact makes some small settlements in remote areas prone to electricity supply disruption, sometimes caused by outdated infrastructure and high transmission losses, which can cause system failures during peaks in power demand. As a result people in such regions become socialy and economically isolated. Given this situation, some remote villages opt to use diesel generators and other fuel alternatives which have a significant environmental footprint. This paper uses the case study of Uzbekistan, as an example of a developing post-Socialist country undergoing an economic transition from planned to market economy to analyse if hybrid wind or solar energy systems are economically viable, compared to diesel run systems. In order to do so authors fed real meteorological data for six selected regions in Uzbekistan into the HOMER software. Further, the authors investigate changes in monetary policy recently taking place in the country and question the consistency of such changes with the course taken towards increasing the share of renewables in power generation. The paper concludes that although renewables appear to be economically viable (even in a fossil-fuel rich country), the government needs to synchronise different policy tools in order

Adaptation to sea level rise on low coral islands: Lessons from recent events

Ocean & Coastal Management, 2019

100% renewable energy system in Japan: Smoothening and ancillary services

Applied Energy, 2018

In the aftermath of the Paris Agreements, many countries around the globe have pledged to reduce ... more In the aftermath of the Paris Agreements, many countries around the globe have pledged to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions being released into the atmosphere. To do so, it is important that the amount of renewable energy in the electricity grid increases, though there are worries of the capacity of the grid to cope with intermittent energy sources. To assess the feasibility of a 100% renewable energy system in Japan, the authors conducted an hourly simulation of future electricity production based on wind, solar and tidal data in Japan. The system was shown to be stable, and the authors calculated the required capacity of electrical batteries that would be necessary to balance such a system.

Migration as an Adaptation Strategy for Atoll Island States

International Migration, 2017

Adopting a policy of migration can be one possible adaptation strategy against climate change. It... more Adopting a policy of migration can be one possible adaptation strategy against climate change. It has been forecasted that if the worst predictions regarding climate change and sea level rise become reality atolls around the world could become submerged in the future. This would render them uninhabitable and could lead to questions about whether Atoll Island States could still be considered as States. The international community has been avoiding any commitment to create a convention that would protect people displaced by climate change. In order to solve such potential problems, the authors will argue that a framework of bilateral agreements, initiatives, and national policies could constitute a viable solution for the various interested parties. The article will discuss the characteristics of Atoll Island States, touching on possible solutions for climate change displacement which have been discussed by the governments and civil society of the affected States.

気候変動の影響を受けた台風による波浪・高潮被害の変化予測 ―気象・波浪・高潮・潮汐統合モデルの開発と長期予測―

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering), 2012

Storm Surge Heights and Damage Caused by the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan Along the Leyte Gulf Coast

Coastal Engineering Journal, 2016

Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) struck the islands of Leyte and Samar, the central part of the Philippin... more Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) struck the islands of Leyte and Samar, the central part of the Philippines, on 8 November 2013, bringing large-scale devastation to coastal areas due to the high winds and large storm surge and waves associated with it. In order to obtain the distribution of storm surge heights and damage covering the wide stretch of affected coastline, the authors carried out a series of field surveys in the aftermath of the typhoon (in December 2013, May 2014, and October 2014). In the present paper, the authors detailed the results of these field surveys and summarized the characteristics of the storm surge and main causes of the damage, especially focusing on the Leyte Gulf coast, which is surrounded by the eastern coast of Leyte and the southern coast of Samar. Finally, the wide range of types of storm surge disasters were also discussed by comparing Typhoon Haiyan with other recent major events.

Storm surge and evacuation in urban areas during the peak of a storm

Coastal Engineering, 2016

The present paper examines the impact of floodwater caused by the storm surge brought about by Ty... more The present paper examines the impact of floodwater caused by the storm surge brought about by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, focusing on downtown Tacloban in Leyte Island, the Philippines. A reliable numerical model for predicting such flooding was developed by calibrating the results of field investigations, including footage from a video clip taken during the storm surge. The simulation reveals that flow velocities along the streets in downtown Tacloban reached up to 7m/s due to flow contraction along the high-density blocks of houses, and how water levels reached their peak in just 10 minutes. According to the depth-velocity product criteria, often used for evaluating the vulnerability of people and buildings to floodwaters, only 8% of the length of streets in downtown Tacloban were within the safe limits that allow pedestrian evacuation. Based on these findings, the present research concludes that pedestrian evacuation in the middle of a storm surge generated by a strong typhoon is a high-risk behaviour. Thus, clearly and objectively, evacuation during this time should not be encouraged, even when seawater intrudes the houses of local residents. In this respect, it would appear imperative that prior to the arrival of the typhoon all residents should evacuate areas at risk of being flooded. Though the flood height was significant in the downtown area, the damage to these houses was limited. If it was not possible for some reason to evacuate prior to the arrival of the typhoon, those in solid houses should first consider vertical evacuation and the possibility that they could survive in their place, rather than courageously evacuating in an unpredictable water flow.

Introduction: Lessons from the Last 10 Years of Coastal Disasters

Handbook of Coastal Disaster Mitigation for Engineers and Planners, 2015

Comprehensive Numerical Simulation of Waves Caused by Typhoon Using a Meteorology-Wave-Storm Surge-Tide Coupled Model

Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 2012

The present study focuses on the risks of storm surge caused by future increases in typhoon inten... more The present study focuses on the risks of storm surge caused by future increases in typhoon intensity due to climate change. These risks were analyzed by integrating weather, wave, storm surge and tide prediction systems into a new simulation methodology. This model, which the authors developed by themselves, makes it possible to calculate the weather fields of typhoons in the past as well as in the future on the basis of meteorology and can simulate waves in a complex geographical area, in contrast with many previous storm surge simulation methods which were not based on accurate meteorological models. The model was verified to accurately reproduce historical typhoons and waves and thus is a useful tool for the analysis of future climate risks.

Recent tsunamis events and preparedness: Development of tsunami awareness in Indonesia, Chile and Japan

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2013

ABSTRACT Since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, there is a growing awareness of the risks that tsun... more ABSTRACT Since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, there is a growing awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that the population of some countries such as Chile and Japan were aware of such events, many other places had virtually not heard about such phenomenon before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of major tsunamis in recent years has led to a heightened state of tsunami awareness in many areas of the world, which can be described by an increased knowledge, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. However, the response of different elements of society to tsunami warnings nowadays still appears to be inadequate a times, pointing to lack of awareness by at least some individuals, an over-reliance in defence mechanisms or lacking in the transmission of knowledge from previous events. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis observations made by the authors during field visits to areas afflicted by the last three major events (Chile, Indonesia, and Japan). The level of tsunami awareness prior to these events will be explored through an analysis on the existence of multiple layers of safety against tsunami developed by previous generations, and whether these had been preserved over time. The potential impact of these major tsunamis in the development of tsunami awareness will be analysed based on questionnaires that indicate the willingness of local coastal communities to invest in disaster preparedness.

Analysis of Tsunami Culture in Countries Affected by Recent Tsunamis

Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2013

Since 2004 there is a growing global awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communi... more Since 2004 there is a growing global awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that these events were already an intrinsic part of the culture of some countries (such as Chile and Japan), in many other places they had been virtually unheard of before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of these events in recent years has led to the emergence of a "tsunami culture" in many areas of the world, which has resulted in increased awareness, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis questionnaires carried out by the authors during their own field visits to the last three major events (in Japan, Chile and Indonesia), and interpret these through the willingness of coastal communities to build protection measures along the shore and the impact that these can have on sustainable development.

2010年チリ沖地震津波災害の現地調査

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering), 2011

At 3:34 local time on February 27, 2010, a large earthquake of magnitude Mw 8.8 generated tsunami... more At 3:34 local time on February 27, 2010, a large earthquake of magnitude Mw 8.8 generated tsunami that caused heavy damage to the coastal area of Chile. This paper aims to clarify the characteristics of this tsunami disaster by analyzing the field survey data as well as the effects of bathymetry on tsunami behavior. Tsunami inundation height was 4-10 m in a wide area of Chilean coast and the maximum run-up height was over 20 m. The reflection at the edge of a continental shelf caused several waves to attack the coast. Due to the large earthquake, residents were able to feel the danger of tsunami. The knowledge about tsunami has spread throughout residents living in coastal area, following the 1960 Chile Tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. The caution by earthquake and the widespread knowledge about tsunami reduced victims in Chile.

Stability of Rubble Mound Breakwaters Against Solitary Waves

Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 2012

No formulas currently exist to design armour units against tsunami attack. To develop such formul... more No formulas currently exist to design armour units against tsunami attack. To develop such formulae, laboratory experiments were carried out to clarify the failure mechanism of these types of structures. Also, the behavior of armour units against real cases of tsunami attack during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami were evaluated. Both the results of the laboratory experiments and the breakwaters studied in the field where then analyzed in terms of well established formulas such as that of Van der Meer or Hudson. The design of structures that only fail partially during a given tsunami event (“resilient” or “tenacious” structures) should be prioritized in future counter-measures, and in order to make it possible to construct such structures a modification of the Hudson formula for their design is proposed.

Erratum to: The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan

Natural Hazards, 2010

The following paragraphs should be changed due to a handling error of the manuscript. 1st paragra... more The following paragraphs should be changed due to a handling error of the manuscript. 1st paragraph: Ongoing research projects aim now at geo-coding socioeconomic key indicators, such as economic income or population density. 3 A… ''World Bank report on Natural Disaster Hotspots, for example, highlights areas with a relatively high loss risk from one or more natural disasters including tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, volcanoes, earthquakes and landslides (Dilley et al. 2005). Spatial environmental data (on different types of land cover, for example forests) are available through global environmental assessments, such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Data on natural hazards, combined with subnational distribution of population, economic income, topography and land use can help to identify areas that are at a relatively high economic loss risk due to natural hazards, such as tropical cyclones.'' 2nd paragraph: ''In the present research, however, only a fairly simplistic socio-economical model was taken into account, which does not consider future socioeconomic changes or economic growth. Though this could be seen as fairly simplistic, the Japanese population and The online version of the original article can be found under

Stability of Breakwater Armor Units against Tsunami Attacks

Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 2014

The design of breakwater armour units against tsunami attacks has received little attention in th... more The design of breakwater armour units against tsunami attacks has received little attention in the past because of the comparative low frequency of these events and the rarity of structures designed specifically to withstand them. However, field surveys of recent events, such as the 2011 Great Eastern Japan Earthquake Tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, have shown flaws in the design of protection structures. During these extreme events, many breakwaters suffered partial or catastrophic damage. Although it is to be expected that most normal structures fail due to such high order events, practicing engineers need to possess tools to design certain important breakwaters that should not fail even during level 2 events. Research into the design of critical structures that only partially fail (i.e., "resilient" or "tenacious" structures) during a very extreme level 2 tsunami event should be prioritized in the future, and in this sense the present paper proposes a formula that allows the estimation of armour unit damage depending on the tsunami wave height.

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

Climatic Change, 2013

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chain... more With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane "Sandy". In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this paper highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both "soft" and "hard" adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the paper highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.

Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

Climatic Change, 2009

The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible fu... more The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios.

Implications of paradigm shift in Japan’s electricity security of supply: A multi-dimensional indicator assessment

Applied Energy, 2014

ABSTRACT The present study developed a series of indicators to assess the electricity generation ... more ABSTRACT The present study developed a series of indicators to assess the electricity generation security of supply under different energy portfolios in Japan in a post-3/11 context. A baseline and four alternative scenarios were designed assuming different shares of fossil fuel and nuclear thermal power and renewables in a 2030 timeframe. The analysis revealed that expanding endogenous energy resources together with a reduction of nuclear power and fossil fuel technologies appears to be a promising strategy to enhance electricity security of supply. Under this strategy imported fossil fuel dependence would decrease to 69.3%, whereas environmental impacts would decline 15-22%, compared to pre-Fukushima levels (baseline scenario). However, an immediate transition to grid-connected renewable energies is not realistic and would increase stress on the system reliability in the short-term, given infrastructure and technical constraints. Investment should be channelised to develop storage and back-up systems, as well as de-centralisation of supply systems to increase energy system resilience and security of supply.

Disappearing island states: ecosystem adaptation or relocation?

by Lilian Yamamoto and Miguel Esteban

Climate Action, 2010

Climate change could have devastating effects on lowlying island states, which could disappear al... more Climate change could have devastating effects on lowlying island states, which could disappear altogether in the course of this century with disastrous consequences for their inhabitants and their legal status. At present, the survival of these islands hinges on the ability of the local
ecosystem of coral reefs to adapt to the consequences of a warmer planet. However, these vulnerable ecosystems are already under great stress. Coral reef conservation measures are required if these nations are to survive.

Pequenos Estados Insulares

by Lilian Yamamoto and Miguel Esteban

Refugiados Ambientais, livro editado por Liliana Jubilut, Érika Pires Ramos, Carolina de Abreu Claro, Fernanda Cavedon-Capdeville, 2018

O presente capítulo tem a finalidade de discutir quais são as questões jurídicas relevantes ao po... more O presente capítulo tem a finalidade de discutir quais são as questões jurídicas relevantes ao possível desaparecimento dos PEIs no âmbito das suas condições de Estado e no que se refere à proteção internacional das populações deslocadas. Num primeiro momento, serão apresentadas as características dos PEIs, seguida da abordagem da questão da soberania e status de Estado após a perda de população
e território, e por fim uma análise das alternativas sugeridas para a proteção do deslocamento ambiental internacional.

Time-Scale in Framing Disaster Risk Reduction in Sustainability

by Lilian Yamamoto, Miguel Esteban, and Lau Jamero

Framing in Sustainability Science, 2020

Disaster Risk Reduction is one of the most important topics in sustainability science, seeking to... more Disaster Risk Reduction is one of the most important topics in sustainability science, seeking to examine the vulnerability and resilience of human life and society to natural hazards through the reduction and management of risks. However, disasters are caused by many different types of natural hazard events that take place in exposed and vulnerable areas across time spans. The size of the area and times-scale of the impact can also differ greatly. Possible actions to improve preparedness, countermeasures, actors or stakeholders involved, and person(s) in charge of these measures vary depending on the type of disaster. This chapter describes two different types of coastal issues, namely tsunamis and sea level rise, and the types of countermeasures available to either Japanese coastal towns or small coral islands. How these issues are perceived and dealt with will then be discussed from the point of view of timescales , which affect the human perception of the problem.