Papers by Paola Mercogliano
Climatic Change, Mar 28, 2018
Extreme weather events are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of g... more Extreme weather events are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of global warming. This poses challenging problems for critical infrastructures, which could be dramatically affected (or disrupted), and may require adaptation plans to the changing climate conditions. The INTACT FP7-European project evaluated the resilience and vulnerability of critical infrastructures to extreme weather events in a climate change scenario. To identify changes in the hazard induced by climate change, appropriate Extreme Weather Indicators (EWIs), as proxies of the main atmospheric features triggering events with high impact on the infrastructures, were defined for a number of case studies and different approaches were analysed to obtain local climate projections. We considered the influence of weighting and bias correction schemes on the delta approach followed to obtain the resulting projections, considering data from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble of regional future climate scenarios over Europe. The aim is to provide practitioners, decision makers and administrators with appropriate methods to obtain actionable and plausible results on local/regional future climate scenarios. Our results show a small sensitivity to the weighting approach and a large sensitivity to bias correcting the future projections.
Climate Dynamics, May 6, 2023
This study presents a comprehensive assessment of a dynamical downscaling of ERA5 Reanalysis rece... more This study presents a comprehensive assessment of a dynamical downscaling of ERA5 Reanalysis recently performed over Italy through the COSMO-CLM model at a convection-permitting scale (0.02°) over the period 1989-2020. Results are analysed against several independent observational datasets and reanalysis products. The capability of the downscaling to realistically represent the climatology for 2 m temperature and precipitation is analysed over the whole peninsula and subdomains. Hourly precipitation patterns, orography effects, and urban climate dynamics are also investigated, highlighting the weaknesses and strengths of the convection-permitting model. In particular, gains in performances are achieved in mountainous areas where the climate characteristics are correctly represented, as are the hourly precipitation characteristics. Losses in performances occur in coastal and flat areas of the Italian peninsula, where the convection-permitting model performance does not seem to be satisfactory, as opposed to complex orographic areas. The adopted urban parameterisation is demonstrated to simulate heat detection for two Italian cities: Rome and Milan. Finally, a subset of extreme climate indicators is evaluated, finding: (i) a region-dependent response, (ii) a notable performance of the convection-permitting model over mountainous areas and (iii) discrepancies in the South, Central and Insular subdomains. Climate indicators detect extreme events at a detailed scale, becoming an important tool for turning climate data into information.
Probabilities of future climate states can be estimated by fitting distributions to the members o... more Probabilities of future climate states can be estimated by fitting distributions to the members of an ensemble of climate model projections. The change in the ensemble mean can be used as an estimate of the unknown change in the mean of the distribution of the climate variable being predicted. However, the level of sampling uncertainty around the change in the ensemble mean varies from case to case and in some cases is large. We compare two model averaging methods that take the uncertainty in the change in the ensemble mean into account in the distribution fitting process. They both involve fitting distributions to the ensemble using an uncertainty-adjusted value for the ensemble mean in an attempt to increase predictive skill relative to using the unadjusted ensemble mean. We use the two methods to make projections of future rainfall based on a large dataset of high resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations for different seasons, rainfall variables, RCPs and points in time. Cross-validation within the ensemble using both point and probabilistic validation methods shows that in most cases predictions based on the adjusted ensemble means show higher potential accuracy than those based on the unadjusted ensemble mean. They also perform better than predictions based on conventional Akaike model averaging and statistical testing. The adjustments to the ensemble mean vary continuously between situations that are statistically significant and those that are not. Of the two methods we test, one is very simple, and the other is more complex and involves averaging using a Bayesian posterior. The simpler method performs nearly as well as the more complex method. Estimates of future climate are often created using climate projection ensembles. Examples of such ensembles include the
Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, Oct 29, 2022
Historically, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Italy was constrained to Mediterranean areas. Howeve... more Historically, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Italy was constrained to Mediterranean areas. However, in the last 20 years, sand fly vectors and human cases of VL have been detected in northern Italy, traditionally classified as a cold area unsuitable for sand fly survival. We aim to study the spatiotemporal pattern and climatic determinants of VL incidence in Italy. National Hospital Discharge Register records were used to identify incident cases of VL between 2009 and 2016. Incident rates were computed for each year (N = 8) and for each province (N = 110). Data on mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were obtained from the ERA5-Land re-analysis. Age-and sex-standardized incidence rates were modeled with Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive Poisson models in relation to the meteo-climatic parameters. Statistical inference was based on Monte Carlo-Markov chains. We identified 1123 VL cases (incidence rate: 2.4 cases/1,000,000 person-years). The highest incidence rates were observed in southern Italy, even though some areas of northern Italy experienced high incidence rates. Overall, in the spatial analysis, VL incidence rates were positively associated with average air temperatures (β for 1 • C increase in average mean average temperature: 0.14; 95% credible intervals (CrI): 0.01, 0.27) and inversely associated with average precipitation (β for 20 mm increase in average summer cumulative precipitation: -0.28, 95% CrI: -0.42, -0.13). In the spatio-temporal analysis, no association between VL cases and season-year specific temperature and precipitation anomalies was detected. Our findings indicate that VL is endemic in the whole Italian peninsula and that climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, might play a relevant role in shaping the geographical distribution of VL cases. These results support that climate change might affect leishmaniasis distribution in the future.
Ingegneria dell'Ambiente, Feb 5, 2016
La Direttiva Europea 2000/60/CE (denominata "Direttiva Acque") introduce l'obbligo di predisporre... more La Direttiva Europea 2000/60/CE (denominata "Direttiva Acque") introduce l'obbligo di predisporre piani di gestione dei bacini idrografici per tutti i distretti idrografici (identificati nella Direttiva stessa) al fine di realizzare un adeguato stato ecologico e chimico delle acque e contribuire a mitigare gli effetti delle inondazioni e della siccità. La Direttiva Acque è stata recepita in Italia dal Decreto Legislativo 152/06 del 3 Aprile 2006, che ha istituito otto distretti idrografici (Alpi Orientali, Padano (coincidente con il bacino del fiume Po), Appennino Settentrionale, Serchio, Appennino Centrale, Appennino Meridionale, Sardegna e Sicilia), per ciascuno dei quali è richiesta la predisposizione di un piano di gestione. Tuttavia, la mitigazione del rischio alluvioni e siccità non è tra gli obiettivi principali di tale Direttiva, infatti, il tema della riduzione del rischio di alluvioni viene ripreso nella Direttiva Europea 2007/60/CE (denominata "Direttiva Piene") recepita in Italia con il Decreto Legislativo n. 49 del 23 Febbraio 2010, che introduce la tematica degli impatti del cambiamenti climatici sull'occorrenza e la severità di eventi alluvionali.
Natural Hazards, Jan 4, 2021
The original article was published with an error to the corresponding author's name. The author g... more The original article was published with an error to the corresponding author's name. The author group and the publisher request the correct name, Marta Ellena, be noted and cited for the work.
<p>Flash floods rank among the most dangerous and costliest hazards of the ... more <p>Flash floods rank among the most dangerous and costliest hazards of the alpine and mediterranean region. The severe convective storms causing them are influenced by both, the presence of a large body of sea water and a complex orography. These storms are the main subject of the present study and in the following referred to as heavy precipitation events (HPEs).</p><p>We here study heavy precipitation events by using an ensemble of convection permitting regional climate models and applying a tracking algorithm, and focus on their charateristic properties. The domain covers the Alps and the central part of the Mediterranean, and we investigate and compare three 10-year periods under the rcp85 forcing scenario: historical [2000-2009], near-future [2040-2049] and far-future [2090-2099].</p><p>Our analysis reproduces a most important message: even though in the future the mediterranean climate is drying, precipitation associated with heavy precipitation events is increasing. Further, HPEs will be more frequent in the future. In particular, their occurrence frequency will increases in wintertime, whereas it will decrease in summertime.</p><p>We investigate the climate change signal of characteristic properties describing the propagation, the spatial and temporal scales and the intensity of HPEs: on average HPEs travel by 10% farther [8km], they last longer by 5% [20 min], their area increases by 16% and their total rain volume by 34%. Regarding metrics of intensity the changes of the highest percentiles are greatest: the 90th percentiles of a HPE's precipitation field increases by 5.6%, the 99th percentile by 9.4% and the maximum increases by 12.7%.</p><p>Eventually we unravel the characterics for specific regions and seasons: changes are more dramatical for HPEs that cross the coastline and in wintertime.</p><p>In summary, this study confirms important messages of climate research in an ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate models, demonstrates the capabilities of convection-permitting spatial resolution and explores the possibilities that come with applying a tracking algorithm and by looking into precipitation extremes in the Lagrangion framework of reference.</p>
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2017
<p>Flooding is one of the most challenging weather-induced risks in urban areas, due both t... more <p>Flooding is one of the most challenging weather-induced risks in urban areas, due both to the typically high exposures in terms of people, buildings, and infrastructures, and to the uncertainties lying in the modelling of the involved physical processes. The modelling of urban flooding is usually performed by means of different strategies in accordance with the specific purpose of the analysis, ranging from detailed simulations, requiring large modelling and computational efforts, and typically adopted for design purposes, to simplified evaluations, particularly feasible for scenario analyses, when a large number of simulations is required perturbing one or more input parameters.</p><p>According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, intensity of precipitation events could be greatly impacted by the expected climate change primarily due to the increase in temperature, entailing an increase in the atmospheric moisture retention capability. However, the effect of climate change on the rainfall regime of local areas is not straightforward, but deeply depends on local features such as latitude, topography, distance from the coast. Over Europe, an ensemble of climate simulations coming from the application of different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (able to perform a dynamical downscaling of General Circulation Models, GCMs, available at the global scale) is freely available within the EURO-CORDEX initiative, which is the current standard for climate change analysis over EU countries. The spatial resolution of EURO-CORDEX simulations (about 12km) is too coarse to be directly used in local impact analyses; in this case, bias corrections are usually performed using local rainfall observations, to adjust climate simulation results to the local rainfall regime. The availability of multiple climate projections coming from different Climate Simulation Chains (in other words, different RCM/GCM couplings) allows to quantify the uncertainty in climate modelling, that should be accounted for in impact analyses.</p><p>In the present work, an approach is proposed that aims to quantify the uncertainty caused by the use of an ensemble of climate projections on urban flood modelling, taking a limited area within the City of Naples (Italy) as test case. The specific purpose is that of understanding the resilience of the area with respect to any variation in rainfall intensity such as those possibly caused by climate change, building on 19 climate projections available within the EURO-CORDEX initiative and bias-corrected to make them suitable to be used for impact analyses at the local scale. The concept of resilience is expressed by a selection of indicators considered useful both in the framework of classical hazard analysis and for transport network, considered a strategic service for the test case. Urban flood modelling is undertaken by using two different numerical codes characterized by two different levels of complexity. In this way, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the computational costs that are actually needed, in terms of input data and resources, when integrating uncertainties due to climate projections in urban flood modelling for multi-purpose analyses.</p>
This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commissio... more This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Since 2003, Europe has experienced several extreme summer heat waves. Such heat waves are project... more Since 2003, Europe has experienced several extreme summer heat waves. Such heat waves are projected to occur as often as every 2 years in the second half of the 21st century, under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The impacts will be particularly strong in southern Europe. Heavy precipitation events have increased in northern and north-eastern Europe since the 1960s, whereas different indices show diverging trends for south-western and southern Europe. Heavy precipitation events are projected to become more frequent in most parts of Europe. The number of very severe flood events in Europe has varied since 1980, but the economic losses have increased. It isnot currently possible to quantify the contribution due to increased heavy precipitation in parts of Europe compared with better reporting and land use changes. Observations of windstorm location, frequency and intensity have showed considerable variability across Europe during the 20th century. Models project an eastward extens...
Il clima degli ultimi decenni nel bacino del fiume Po e stato caratterizzato da cambiamenti sia n... more Il clima degli ultimi decenni nel bacino del fiume Po e stato caratterizzato da cambiamenti sia nelle precipitazioni sia nelle temperature; le proiezioni climatiche effettuate mediante modelli climatici mostrano come su quest’area, in futuro, si debbano attendere un aumento delle temperature e una diminuzione delle precipitazioni, con l’eccezione dell’area Alpina in inverno. Anche gli eventi estremi, massimi di temperatura e della precipitazione, saranno piu frequenti. Come conseguenza, la disponibilita idrica in estate e destinata a diminuire mentre la frequenza di eventi di piena ad aumentare, con potenziali ricadute sulle attivita produttive e sulla popolazione insediata nel bacino del fiume Po. L’uso di una catena modellistica che include componenti climatiche/idrologiche e di bilancio permette di studiare la futura disponibilita idrica nel Po. Le proiezioni climatiche al periodo 2021-2050, per gli scenari IPCC RCP4.5 e RCP8.5, mostrano che, rispetto al periodo di controllo 1982...
2018 5th IEEE International Workshop on Metrology for AeroSpace (MetroAeroSpace), 2018
In order to increase the weather awareness on board, at CIRA (Italian Aerospace Research Center) ... more In order to increase the weather awareness on board, at CIRA (Italian Aerospace Research Center) it is under development a general system able to provide, in near-real time, forecast and monitored weather information along the flight route, gathering and integrating data from different sources. MET4F (METeorological data for FLARE) is a new tool, within this system, devoted to provide the over mentioned weather information through the dispatch of a binary message from an on ground control station to an Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV). The message format follows the protocol adopted by the CIRA Remotely Piloted Aircraft System and allows an automatic flight reconfiguration, also on the basis of the weather information.
Summary of the meeting on 11 December 2015 on adaptation of structural design to climate change 2... more Summary of the meeting on 11 December 2015 on adaptation of structural design to climate change 2016 EUR 27787 EN brought to you by CORE View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk provided by JRC Publications Repository This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre, the European Commission's in-house science service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policy-making process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.
Journal of Hydrology, 2021
Abstract Flooding is one of the most challenging weather-induced risks in urban areas. However, i... more Abstract Flooding is one of the most challenging weather-induced risks in urban areas. However, in a climate change perspective, significant gaps can still be observed in literature addressing the key role of rainfall input and related variability within urban flood impact models. The present research attempts to bridge this gap by investigating the effect of using a large ensemble of bias-corrected Euro-CORDEX climate projections on flood hazard estimations, with the goal of understanding the propagation of future climate variability in terms of flooding outputs for the urban environment. With this aim, a scenario analysis is performed for two return periods (10 and 200 years) building on nineteen climate projections for future horizon 2071–2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios by means of CADDIES Caflood inundation model, using a test case in the City of Naples (Italy). Model outcomes are investigated and discussed in terms of relevant metrics and indicators available in literature targeting both general hazards, evaluated in terms of runoff volumes and flooded areas, and sectoral hazards, specified by a number of relevant literature hazard classifications. Modelling outcomes are analysed and normalised with respect to baseline values representing current climate conditions to emphasize potential impacts of climate change. Results show that flood features increase more slowly than rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and flood increase is linear, with decreasing slope with increasing return period. Furthermore, the spread in rainfall input due to the use of different climate projections does not inflate through the impact modelling stages, albeit a dependence on the indicators used to model flood impacts can be observed. The outcomes of the research can be of aid to managers, designers and policy makers to understand the impacts of climate change in flood-prone urban areas and, in perspective, to adapt urban areas exploring the feasibility and effectiveness of solutions.
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Papers by Paola Mercogliano