Papers by Donald MacGregor
All known cultures deal with time. How they understand time is a defining cultural characteristic... more All known cultures deal with time. How they understand time is a defining cultural characteristic, especially in contrast to the Western cultural understanding. This paper uses the term intertemporal reasoning to refer to the psychosocial and cultural processes engaged when people either integrate past experiences and events or project forward to the future. Available literature (in English) on Arab culture is explored to contrast how that culture reasons about time and events, with respect to Western cultures. A number of themes emerge from this synthesis, including the role that attribution of causality plays in Western culture as a basis for interpretation of the past, and the tendency of Arab culture to integrate events into an associative gestalt as a basis for understanding and explanation. The results suggest that Arab culture has traditions that may place less emphasis than Western cultures on temporal sequencing as a key organizing principle, both in terms of cognitive processes and in terms of cultural functions such as storytelling. Furthermore, the poetic quality of Arab culture favors an associative approach to the integration of past and present, as opposed to the causal approach of Western cultures. As a practical matter, it is suggested that Arab cultural traditions concerning time and events may play an important role in how day-today experience is both encoded and recalled as part of reconstructing recent personal histories (e.g., where one has been) in terms of the ordering of events in the recent past.
Cambridge University Press eBooks, Aug 28, 2006
This paper introduces a theoretical framework that describes the importance of affect in guiding ... more This paper introduces a theoretical framework that describes the importance of affect in guiding judgments and decisions. As used here, ''affect'' means the specific quality of ''goodness'' or ''badness'' (i) experienced as a feeling state (with or without consciousness) and (ii) demarcating a positive or negative quality of a stimulus. Affective responses occur rapidly and automatically-note how quickly you sense the feelings associated with the stimulus word ''treasure'' or the word ''hate''. We argue that reliance on such feelings can be characterized as ''the affect heuristic''. In this paper we trace the development of the affect heuristic across a variety of research paths followed by ourselves and many others. We also discuss some of the important practical implications resulting from ways that this heuristic impacts our daily lives.
Western science has developed powerful techniques for modeling and aiding important social decisi... more Western science has developed powerful techniques for modeling and aiding important social decisions. One such technique is risk assessment. The relationship of risk to cultural context is apparent in a number of its facets, including its dependence on values and the (potential) clash between probabilistic versus deterministic views about states of the future. This paper is an examination of the concept of risk using as a lens ideas and concepts about risk that are prevalent in Western culture, and applying these concepts to existing literature (in English) on Arab culture that provides information relevant to risk. The goal of the paper is to amplify our understanding of how Arab culture conceptualizes elements of risk and its assessment as understood and practiced in the West. A background for this synthesis is an overview of the history of risk in Western cultures that traces the evolution of modern ideas about risk as both a mathematical and a social development. Current research on risk in Western literature is used to frame key risk issues in terms of their potential fit (or misfit) with features of Arab culture. The paper concludes with a number of speculative recommendations for research and practice that suggest a cautious approach with regard to applying risk-related principles in Arab cultural contexts that place a relatively high value on traditionalism.
BACKGROUND Methods of formal analysis are at the center of decision support and guidance that our... more BACKGROUND Methods of formal analysis are at the center of decision support and guidance that our Government provides to emerging nations as part of infrastructure and political development. These methods, such as decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis and risk analysis, are rooted in western concepts of intertemporal reasoning. The research undertaken in this project identifies how cultural factors influence intertemporal reasoning, with a focus on Arab culture. Two additional cultures, Pashtun and Somali, were studied to the degree that existing resources (in English) were available. The research was conducted by a three-person team of experts in the fields of psychology, cultural anthropology and decision analysis. The project was two-years in duration. Four research tasks were performed. During the course of the project a wide range of resources were consulted. An annotated bibliography was developed to serve as an intermediate research product and as a vehicle for sharing findings among investigators from a literature review. The resulting base of information was synthesized into a set of conference presentations and research papers. These are summarized below in terms of accomplishments, each containing a title and abstract. Full copies of the papers are contained as enclosures to this report. In addition, they are available either from the project principal investigator (Dr. Donald MacGregor) or downloadable from the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). Where appropriate, a link to the SSRN abstract is provided. p-2
International series in management science/operations research, 2001
Forecasters often need to estimate uncertain quantities, but with limited time and resources. Dec... more Forecasters often need to estimate uncertain quantities, but with limited time and resources. Decomposition is a method for dealing with such problems by breaking down (decomposing) the estimation task down into a set of components that can be more readily estimated, and then combining the component estimates to produce a target estimate. Estimators can effectively apply decomposition to either multiplicative or segmented forecasts, though multiplicative decomposition is especially sensitive to correlated errors in component values. Decomposition is most used for highly uncertain estimates, such as ones having a large numerical value (e.g., millions or more) or quantities in an unfamiliar metric. When possible, multiple estimations should be used and the results aggregated. In addition, multiple decompositions can be applied to the same estimation problem and the results resolved into a single estimate. Decomposition should be used only when the estimation can make component estimates more accurately or more confidently than the target estimate.
European Journal of Operational Research, Mar 1, 2007
This paper introduces a theoretical framework that describes the importance of affect in guiding ... more This paper introduces a theoretical framework that describes the importance of affect in guiding judgments and decisions. As used here, ''affect'' means the specific quality of ''goodness'' or ''badness'' (i) experienced as a feeling state (with or without consciousness) and (ii) demarcating a positive or negative quality of a stimulus. Affective responses occur rapidly and automatically-note how quickly you sense the feelings associated with the stimulus word ''treasure'' or the word ''hate''. We argue that reliance on such feelings can be characterized as ''the affect heuristic''. In this paper we trace the development of the affect heuristic across a variety of research paths followed by ourselves and many others. We also discuss some of the important practical implications resulting from ways that this heuristic impacts our daily lives.
SIGCHI bulletin, Jul 1, 1987
The Pashtun are an ethnic group that straddles the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and are the large... more The Pashtun are an ethnic group that straddles the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and are the largest group in Afghanistan. Historically, when Afghanistan has been united, it has been under Pashtun rule. Pashtun rulers of Afghanistan have come from the Durrani Pashtun, who are a western Pashtun group. The Durrani learned governance from serving under Turko-Mongolian dynasties. These dynasties tried to rule only the most populous, productive areas, leaving marginal areas ungoverned. Pashtun social structure is what anthropologists term a segmentary lineage system. In such a system, there is a hierarchy of social groupings starting at the local level, then proceeding upward through various levels to an entire ethnic group. These relationships are based on kinship and shared culture. At any given level (local, regional, ethnic group), social segments operate only in opposition to equivalent segments (local kinship group vs. local kinship group, regional group vs. regional group, etc.). Leadership is situational rather than institutionalized. Both leadership and segmentary organization end when conflict ends. The cultural ideal is egalitarianism. Pashtun society is atomized in the sense that it is based on the most basic element, the individual (especially the individual man). Each man considers himself independent and self-sufficient, and simultaneously in competition with all others Pashtun men. This belief in self-sufficiency, and the perpetual competition, make it difficult for Pashtun to unite for cooperative projects, or even to engage in economic exchange. The ideal economic exchange among the Pashtun is reciprocal and balanced. The Pashtun consider all non-Pashtun to be inferior. A Pashtun man may engage in economic relations with non-Pashtun without losing honor, but also considers it acceptable to cheat non-Pashtun. On the other hand, because of competition within Pashtun society, Pashtun men look to establish friendships with outsiders. The social structure determines how the Pashtun understand the actions of outsiders, and limits their capacity for responding to external intervention. Members of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) should understand and consider this social structure when dealing with the
This work examines the perceived impact of sociopolitical factors on large fire decision making. ... more This work examines the perceived impact of sociopolitical factors on large fire decision making. The study is based on a set of 74 large fires in USDA Forest Service Regions 5 and 6 for the years 2009-2013. All participants were fire managers, some as part of units affected by incidents and others associated with incident management teams. A protocol was developed and implemented to support a combination of information collection approaches, including interviews, survey-type data collection, and encoding of information from incident documentation sources. Participants were asked whether there was direct involvement from influential individuals or groups in the incident management process. Their combined responses to these questions suggests that about 50% of the time they were aware of direct involvement by influential individuals and influential groups. When queried whether or not they personally saw, heard or read media coverage associated an incident at the time of the incident, the majority (63%) reported that either they had not or could not recall. Overall, respondents were somewhat aware of media reporting of incidents at the time of the incidents, and their knowledge of media reporting types covered a broad range of media pathways, including the Internet.
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Papers by Donald MacGregor