The study works towards bridging communication and data gaps between climate scientists and water... more The study works towards bridging communication and data gaps between climate scientists and water planners, allowing water planners to work with useable climate change data and take into account probabilistic scenarios of change. The research focuses on the implications of climate change on agriculture in the Berg River Catchment Area of the Western Cape region of South Africa. It uses statistically downscaled climate change scenarios, providing data from the scenarios in a form that can be utilised in a hydrological model that is able to reflect a regional scale
Annex 51 from "Adaptation to Climate Change: Stakeholder engagement and understanding impact... more Annex 51 from "Adaptation to Climate Change: Stakeholder engagement and understanding impacts - International Council for Local Environment Initiatives (ICLEI) (Section 21)" list of annexure
The HadAM3 atmospheric GCM is currently used to make experimental seasonal forecasts over souther... more The HadAM3 atmospheric GCM is currently used to make experimental seasonal forecasts over southern Africa. Among the physics options is mixed phase precipi- tation (MPP) which is a physically based transfer scheme simulating the transfer of moisture from one phase to another. A dry (1991/2) and a wet (1996/7) summer season are forced with observed SSTs to evaluate the effect
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences, 2009
Progress in the area of international climate negotiation has been the site of substantively incr... more Progress in the area of international climate negotiation has been the site of substantively increased activity of late, yet the task of utilizing appropriate spatial scale climate change projections to understand climate change impacts on sensitive sectors remains challenging. The study described here, undertaken in semi-arid south western South Africa, shows how downscaled climate change projections may be used to characterize climate change impacts in an area that is both valuable from a conservation point of view, yet at the same time serves as host to input intensive commercial agribusiness in the form of potato and rooibos tea production. Such potentially polarized land management objectives have given rise to initiatives to develop better practice guidelines for undertaking intensive commercial agriculture in a sensitive biodiverse environment. The study suggests that climate change may make the achievement of such better practice significantly more challenging. Climate change is here seen as one of a number of critically interacting multiple stressors affecting the area; including the trend to input-intensive farming and competing demands for water.
This project addresses knowledge, resource, capacity and networking gaps on the theme: 'Strengthe... more This project addresses knowledge, resource, capacity and networking gaps on the theme: 'Strengthening urban governments in planning adaptation.' The main objective of this project is to develop an adaptation framework for managing the increased risk to African local government and their communities due to climate change impact. The ultimate beneficiaries of this project will be African local governments and their communities. The guiding and well-tested ICLEI principle of locally designed and owned projects for the global common good, specifically in a developing world context, will be applied throughout project design, inception and delivery. Additionally, the research will test the theory that the most vulnerable living and working in different geographical, climatic and ecosystem zones will be impacted differently and as such, will require a different set of actions to be taken. Potential commonalities will be sought towards regional participatory learning and wider applicability. The five urban centres chosen for this study, based on selection criteria, include: Cape
Annex 29 from "Adaptation to Climate Change: Stakeholder engagement and understanding impact... more Annex 29 from "Adaptation to Climate Change: Stakeholder engagement and understanding impacts - International Council for Local Environment Initiatives (ICLEI) (Section 21)" list of annexure
Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) is a globally important fiber plant. Impact of climate change and var... more Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) is a globally important fiber plant. Impact of climate change and variability is already being felt in Ethiopia in the form of higher temperature, erratic nature of rains (spatially and temporally), floods and drought. The aim of this study was to characterize the climate of the study areas, analyze the impact of climate change on cotton production and to recommend suitable adaptation strategies for cotton production under changing climate at Amibara, Dansha and Kebabo areas of Ethiopia. Historical climate data during 1980-2010, were collected from National Meteorological Agency and National aeronautical space administration while soil and cotton experimental data of the study areas were collected from respective agricultural research center. DSSATV4.6 model was calibrated and evaluated to assess the possible impact of climate change on cotton yield under the baseline and future climate. Model performance was assessed statistically by using quantitative statistical indicators: coefficient of de-term ination (R 2), root mean square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IA). In order to estimate the level of climate change impact (rainfall and temperature) on cotton production for the study areas, two Representative path ways as a threetime segment: Near-term i.e., 2010-2039, Mid-term i.e., 2040-2069) and End-term i.e., 2070-2099 using the coupled atmosphere-ocean HadGEM2-ES GCMs model. Time series anomaly plots for temperature showed that the mean temperature over Amibara, Dansha and Kebabo has increased by about 0.5 to-2ºC, 0.5 to 1.65 o C and 0.5 to 1.5 o C and rainfall showed slight variability in start and end of season during the period of 1980-2010. The projected temperature and rainfall pattern shows that an overall increasing trend in annual temperature and significant variation of monthly and seasonal rainfall from the historical period of time. The rainfall varies between-1.6 to 3.3%,-0.7 to 3.8% and-0.8 to 3.3% at Amibara, Dansha and Kebabo respectively. Climate change analysis indicated a strong influence of temperature on cotton production in Amibara and Dansha sites and yield will be substantially decreased on average by 12% to 13% with projected increasing temperature and erratic nature of rainfall. Projected model simulations predict that climate change will shift planting dates towards late planting (May 15 and July 15) for the period of 2010-2099 at Amibara and Dansha while for Kebabo site early planting June 15 is preferable. In general cotton yield, will decrease but, late planting date and further research on different agronomic management practices will result in increased yield for Amibara and Dansha.
During the early to midwinter period pancake ice is a major component of the Antarctic sea ice co... more During the early to midwinter period pancake ice is a major component of the Antarctic sea ice cover, occupying a belt extending 200-300 km from the outer ice edge with an area of about 6 million km2. Experience in the Arctic suggests that the sea ice thickness in this region can be mapped by monitoring the penetration of ocean waves into it. Spectral analysis of subscenes from ERS-2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images yields the wavelength and direction of the principal spectral component both outside and inside the ice cover. There is a change of wavelength at the ice edge associated with a change in the wave dispersion, which can be quantitatively related to the thickness of the ice. The analysis is complex because the true wave spectrum must be retrieved from the SAR spectrum, which involves an inversion technique requiring a “first-guess” spectrum. The analysis technique is described, and the wave theory which predicts the change in wavelength. Experience in the Chukchi Sea and especially in the Odden ice tongue in the Greenland Sea is reviewed. Preliminary data from the Ross Sea have been analysed, yielding principal wave components, but the ambient wavelength was too long for the effect of ice to be detectable. The next application will be to the outer ice edge, when midwinter data from this region are available at the end of the current season.
1995 International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS '95. Quantitative Remote Sensing for Science and Applications
SAR imagery from the ERS-1 satellite provides an excellent tool for continuous observation of sea... more SAR imagery from the ERS-1 satellite provides an excellent tool for continuous observation of sea-ice in polar regions. On the basis of a theoretical model, wave spectra derived from SAR images can be used to detect ice thickness in the Marginal Ice Zone if the ice is composed of frazil or pancake. A field experiment involving several scientific institutions was
IGARSS'97. 1997 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium Proceedings. Remote Sensing - A Scientific Vision for Sustainable Development
On the basis of a theory of wave propagation from open sea in frazil-pancake ice developed in Wad... more On the basis of a theory of wave propagation from open sea in frazil-pancake ice developed in Wadhams (1986), a project was carried out, during 1994-96 under the EU Environment Programme, to map ice thickness from SAR imagery in the Odden Ice Tongue, Greenland Sea. Ground truth data (ice thickness and composition, wind stress and local wave spectrum, etc.) were
ABSTRACT Two global models (HadAM3: The Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 and CAM3: The C... more ABSTRACT Two global models (HadAM3: The Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 and CAM3: The Community Atmospheric model version 3) have been studied regarding their capabilities in reproducing the small scale features over southern Africa compared with the NCEP reanalysis. In this study, geopotential height at 500hPa and 850hPa pressure levels are used to investigate the variability of small scale circulation features over southern Africa. The investigation took into consideration the magnitude of the models standard deviations. Most of the results were linked with rainfall and temperature over the region. It was found that the standardized anomalies in the geopotential height at the 500hPa pressure level are in phase with that of rainfall. In contrast, the standardized anomalies of 850hPa pressure level geopotential height are out of phase with the standardized anomalies of rainfall and temperature. In addition, the models are able to capture the variation in the mean cut-off lows, number of days with deep tropical lows and number of days with Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs) quite well. However, the models could not capture the number of days with temperate lows very well. Generally, the models are able to reproduce the synoptic scale circulation features which are crucial for reliable seasonal forecast over southern Africa.
Many climate impact applications are sensitive to local differentials in the climate system. This... more Many climate impact applications are sensitive to local differentials in the climate system. This study investigates how eco-geographic factors influence the local climate and propagate eco-climatic complexes that vary spatio-temporally. Local geography data including elevation, slope, aspect, rainfall, temperature, vegetation, population density, and soil potential for agriculture were integrated and analyzed using geographic information system and principal component analysis. The result was profiled for local climate drivers and associated spatial structures in present and future climate (2046-2065) scenarios. The results suggest a local climate system driven by the coupling between terrain, rainfall and temperature in all seasons. In the present climate, this coupling creates eco-climatic complexes that extend from the southeast to northwest corridor in all seasons except June-July-August (JJA) when it is shifted to the northeast axis. This pattern is projected to continue in the future climate scenario, but its spatial influence and intensity would weaken around the northwest axis and rainfall will become less significant in the system in JJA. The clustering of rural settlements these complexes suggests the climate-positives produced by the system significantly support rural livelihoods. Thus, these eco-climatic complexes represent climate sensitive natural resource systems that should be targeted as a fulcrum for climate change mitigation and adaptation in the wooded savannah.
The study works towards bridging communication and data gaps between climate scientists and water... more The study works towards bridging communication and data gaps between climate scientists and water planners, allowing water planners to work with useable climate change data and take into account probabilistic scenarios of change. The research focuses on the implications of climate change on agriculture in the Berg River Catchment Area of the Western Cape region of South Africa. It uses statistically downscaled climate change scenarios, providing data from the scenarios in a form that can be utilised in a hydrological model that is able to reflect a regional scale
Annex 51 from "Adaptation to Climate Change: Stakeholder engagement and understanding impact... more Annex 51 from "Adaptation to Climate Change: Stakeholder engagement and understanding impacts - International Council for Local Environment Initiatives (ICLEI) (Section 21)" list of annexure
The HadAM3 atmospheric GCM is currently used to make experimental seasonal forecasts over souther... more The HadAM3 atmospheric GCM is currently used to make experimental seasonal forecasts over southern Africa. Among the physics options is mixed phase precipi- tation (MPP) which is a physically based transfer scheme simulating the transfer of moisture from one phase to another. A dry (1991/2) and a wet (1996/7) summer season are forced with observed SSTs to evaluate the effect
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences, 2009
Progress in the area of international climate negotiation has been the site of substantively incr... more Progress in the area of international climate negotiation has been the site of substantively increased activity of late, yet the task of utilizing appropriate spatial scale climate change projections to understand climate change impacts on sensitive sectors remains challenging. The study described here, undertaken in semi-arid south western South Africa, shows how downscaled climate change projections may be used to characterize climate change impacts in an area that is both valuable from a conservation point of view, yet at the same time serves as host to input intensive commercial agribusiness in the form of potato and rooibos tea production. Such potentially polarized land management objectives have given rise to initiatives to develop better practice guidelines for undertaking intensive commercial agriculture in a sensitive biodiverse environment. The study suggests that climate change may make the achievement of such better practice significantly more challenging. Climate change is here seen as one of a number of critically interacting multiple stressors affecting the area; including the trend to input-intensive farming and competing demands for water.
This project addresses knowledge, resource, capacity and networking gaps on the theme: 'Strengthe... more This project addresses knowledge, resource, capacity and networking gaps on the theme: 'Strengthening urban governments in planning adaptation.' The main objective of this project is to develop an adaptation framework for managing the increased risk to African local government and their communities due to climate change impact. The ultimate beneficiaries of this project will be African local governments and their communities. The guiding and well-tested ICLEI principle of locally designed and owned projects for the global common good, specifically in a developing world context, will be applied throughout project design, inception and delivery. Additionally, the research will test the theory that the most vulnerable living and working in different geographical, climatic and ecosystem zones will be impacted differently and as such, will require a different set of actions to be taken. Potential commonalities will be sought towards regional participatory learning and wider applicability. The five urban centres chosen for this study, based on selection criteria, include: Cape
Annex 29 from "Adaptation to Climate Change: Stakeholder engagement and understanding impact... more Annex 29 from "Adaptation to Climate Change: Stakeholder engagement and understanding impacts - International Council for Local Environment Initiatives (ICLEI) (Section 21)" list of annexure
Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) is a globally important fiber plant. Impact of climate change and var... more Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) is a globally important fiber plant. Impact of climate change and variability is already being felt in Ethiopia in the form of higher temperature, erratic nature of rains (spatially and temporally), floods and drought. The aim of this study was to characterize the climate of the study areas, analyze the impact of climate change on cotton production and to recommend suitable adaptation strategies for cotton production under changing climate at Amibara, Dansha and Kebabo areas of Ethiopia. Historical climate data during 1980-2010, were collected from National Meteorological Agency and National aeronautical space administration while soil and cotton experimental data of the study areas were collected from respective agricultural research center. DSSATV4.6 model was calibrated and evaluated to assess the possible impact of climate change on cotton yield under the baseline and future climate. Model performance was assessed statistically by using quantitative statistical indicators: coefficient of de-term ination (R 2), root mean square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IA). In order to estimate the level of climate change impact (rainfall and temperature) on cotton production for the study areas, two Representative path ways as a threetime segment: Near-term i.e., 2010-2039, Mid-term i.e., 2040-2069) and End-term i.e., 2070-2099 using the coupled atmosphere-ocean HadGEM2-ES GCMs model. Time series anomaly plots for temperature showed that the mean temperature over Amibara, Dansha and Kebabo has increased by about 0.5 to-2ºC, 0.5 to 1.65 o C and 0.5 to 1.5 o C and rainfall showed slight variability in start and end of season during the period of 1980-2010. The projected temperature and rainfall pattern shows that an overall increasing trend in annual temperature and significant variation of monthly and seasonal rainfall from the historical period of time. The rainfall varies between-1.6 to 3.3%,-0.7 to 3.8% and-0.8 to 3.3% at Amibara, Dansha and Kebabo respectively. Climate change analysis indicated a strong influence of temperature on cotton production in Amibara and Dansha sites and yield will be substantially decreased on average by 12% to 13% with projected increasing temperature and erratic nature of rainfall. Projected model simulations predict that climate change will shift planting dates towards late planting (May 15 and July 15) for the period of 2010-2099 at Amibara and Dansha while for Kebabo site early planting June 15 is preferable. In general cotton yield, will decrease but, late planting date and further research on different agronomic management practices will result in increased yield for Amibara and Dansha.
During the early to midwinter period pancake ice is a major component of the Antarctic sea ice co... more During the early to midwinter period pancake ice is a major component of the Antarctic sea ice cover, occupying a belt extending 200-300 km from the outer ice edge with an area of about 6 million km2. Experience in the Arctic suggests that the sea ice thickness in this region can be mapped by monitoring the penetration of ocean waves into it. Spectral analysis of subscenes from ERS-2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images yields the wavelength and direction of the principal spectral component both outside and inside the ice cover. There is a change of wavelength at the ice edge associated with a change in the wave dispersion, which can be quantitatively related to the thickness of the ice. The analysis is complex because the true wave spectrum must be retrieved from the SAR spectrum, which involves an inversion technique requiring a “first-guess” spectrum. The analysis technique is described, and the wave theory which predicts the change in wavelength. Experience in the Chukchi Sea and especially in the Odden ice tongue in the Greenland Sea is reviewed. Preliminary data from the Ross Sea have been analysed, yielding principal wave components, but the ambient wavelength was too long for the effect of ice to be detectable. The next application will be to the outer ice edge, when midwinter data from this region are available at the end of the current season.
1995 International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS '95. Quantitative Remote Sensing for Science and Applications
SAR imagery from the ERS-1 satellite provides an excellent tool for continuous observation of sea... more SAR imagery from the ERS-1 satellite provides an excellent tool for continuous observation of sea-ice in polar regions. On the basis of a theoretical model, wave spectra derived from SAR images can be used to detect ice thickness in the Marginal Ice Zone if the ice is composed of frazil or pancake. A field experiment involving several scientific institutions was
IGARSS'97. 1997 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium Proceedings. Remote Sensing - A Scientific Vision for Sustainable Development
On the basis of a theory of wave propagation from open sea in frazil-pancake ice developed in Wad... more On the basis of a theory of wave propagation from open sea in frazil-pancake ice developed in Wadhams (1986), a project was carried out, during 1994-96 under the EU Environment Programme, to map ice thickness from SAR imagery in the Odden Ice Tongue, Greenland Sea. Ground truth data (ice thickness and composition, wind stress and local wave spectrum, etc.) were
ABSTRACT Two global models (HadAM3: The Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 and CAM3: The C... more ABSTRACT Two global models (HadAM3: The Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 and CAM3: The Community Atmospheric model version 3) have been studied regarding their capabilities in reproducing the small scale features over southern Africa compared with the NCEP reanalysis. In this study, geopotential height at 500hPa and 850hPa pressure levels are used to investigate the variability of small scale circulation features over southern Africa. The investigation took into consideration the magnitude of the models standard deviations. Most of the results were linked with rainfall and temperature over the region. It was found that the standardized anomalies in the geopotential height at the 500hPa pressure level are in phase with that of rainfall. In contrast, the standardized anomalies of 850hPa pressure level geopotential height are out of phase with the standardized anomalies of rainfall and temperature. In addition, the models are able to capture the variation in the mean cut-off lows, number of days with deep tropical lows and number of days with Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs) quite well. However, the models could not capture the number of days with temperate lows very well. Generally, the models are able to reproduce the synoptic scale circulation features which are crucial for reliable seasonal forecast over southern Africa.
Many climate impact applications are sensitive to local differentials in the climate system. This... more Many climate impact applications are sensitive to local differentials in the climate system. This study investigates how eco-geographic factors influence the local climate and propagate eco-climatic complexes that vary spatio-temporally. Local geography data including elevation, slope, aspect, rainfall, temperature, vegetation, population density, and soil potential for agriculture were integrated and analyzed using geographic information system and principal component analysis. The result was profiled for local climate drivers and associated spatial structures in present and future climate (2046-2065) scenarios. The results suggest a local climate system driven by the coupling between terrain, rainfall and temperature in all seasons. In the present climate, this coupling creates eco-climatic complexes that extend from the southeast to northwest corridor in all seasons except June-July-August (JJA) when it is shifted to the northeast axis. This pattern is projected to continue in the future climate scenario, but its spatial influence and intensity would weaken around the northwest axis and rainfall will become less significant in the system in JJA. The clustering of rural settlements these complexes suggests the climate-positives produced by the system significantly support rural livelihoods. Thus, these eco-climatic complexes represent climate sensitive natural resource systems that should be targeted as a fulcrum for climate change mitigation and adaptation in the wooded savannah.
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