Papers by Ludovic Gaudard
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015
ABSTRACT New renewable energy needs flexibility, which can be provided by storage-hydropower. Cli... more ABSTRACT New renewable energy needs flexibility, which can be provided by storage-hydropower. Climate change affects the potential of this technology in both a negative and a positive way, on one hand by altering runoff, and on the other hand by creating new investment opportunity. This paper provides an economic and financial analysis of a future project in a pumped-storage facility that may be initiated in the Swiss Alps following the glacier retreat. The area released may be considered for building a new reservoir. A complete and integrated model is developed based on the tools of analysis provided by econometrics, finance and operational research. The results show that under the present market conditions such an investment is not profitable. Unexpectedly, the sensitivity analysis shows that most of the time higher price volatility reduces annual revenue. Furthermore, the project׳s lifetime only has a marginal impact on the Net Present Value. The value of the concession, which is the right to use water, is also assessed on the basis of a real option analysis including a long-term horizon. Its present value is substantial even if the project is currently unprofitable. In the discussion, we go beyond the Swiss case study and highlight the implications for energy policy and market design.
Water Resources Management, 2016
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Engineering Geology for Society and Territory - Volume 1, 2014
Science of The Total Environment
Impact of climate change on hydropower in the Italian and Swiss alpine regions • Influence of the... more Impact of climate change on hydropower in the Italian and Swiss alpine regions • Influence of the wholesale electricity prices in the water reservoirs' management • Combination of hydrologic and economic models • Integration of several case studies carried out by different research groups • Each case is a special case although they are located close to each other.
Natural Hazards, 2014
ABSTRACT In the case of an emergency provoked by a natural event, decision makers should (1) acqu... more ABSTRACT In the case of an emergency provoked by a natural event, decision makers should (1) acquire a comprehensive understanding of the current dynamics and (2) take the optimal decision based on the information available at that moment. Scientists should provide the key inputs to decision makers, as well as clearly highlight the current dynamics. While much progress has been made in this field, the theory of options, which was developed to assess financial and real investments in an uncertain world, has as yet never been applied in emergency management related to natural hazards. This article highlights, through some simple examples, the contribution that this approach may provide in this field. First, it allows the comparison of different strategies and to value their degrees of flexibility. Second, it allows the determination of the optimal timing of different types of intervention. Finally, thanks to decision trees, this approach provides a clear and concise presentation of the current dynamics. Options theory possesses an interesting potential to improve emergency management.
Environmental Science & Policy, 2014
Water Resources Management, 2013
Climate change affects hydropower production by modifying total annual inflow volumes and their s... more Climate change affects hydropower production by modifying total annual inflow volumes and their seasonal distribution. Moreover, increasing air temperatures impact electricity consumption and, as a consequence, electricity prices. All together, these phenomena may lead to a loss in revenue. We show that an adequate management of hydropower plants mitigates these losses. These results are obtained by resorting to an interdisciplinary approach integrating hydrology, economy and hydropower management in an interdependent quantitative model.
Science of The Total Environment, 2013
Impact of climate change on hydropower in the Italian and Swiss alpine regions • Influence of the... more Impact of climate change on hydropower in the Italian and Swiss alpine regions • Influence of the wholesale electricity prices in the water reservoirs' management • Combination of hydrologic and economic models • Integration of several case studies carried out by different research groups • Each case is a special case although they are located close to each other.
Environmental Science & Policy, 2014
Environmental Science & Policy, 2013
Environmental Science & Policy, 2013
Climate change impacts Adaptation Water governance Water management Rhone basin Switzerland a b s... more Climate change impacts Adaptation Water governance Water management Rhone basin Switzerland a b s t r a c t Climate change represents a major increase in uncertainty that water managers and policy makers will need to integrate into water resources policy and management. A certain level of uncertainty has always existed in water resources planning, but the speed and intensity of changes in baseline conditions that climate change embodies might require a shift in perspective. This article draws on both the social and physical science results of the EU-FP7 ACQWA project to better understand the challenges and opportunities for adaptation to climate change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Rhone basin in the Canton Valais, Switzerland. It first presents the results of hydro-climatic change projections downscaled to more temporally and spatially-relevant frames of reference for decision makers. Then, it analyses the current policy and legislative framework within which these changes will take place, according to the policy coherence across different water-relevant frameworks as well as the integration and mainstreaming of climate change. It compares the current policy and legislative frameworks for different aspects of water resources management to the projected impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the upper Rhone basin, in order to examine the appropriateness of the current approach for responding to a changing climatic context. Significant uncertainties pose numerous challenges in the governance context. The study draws on adaptive governance principles, to propose policy actions across different scales of governance to better manage baseline variability as well as more 'unpredictable' uncertainty from climate change impacts.
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Papers by Ludovic Gaudard