The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines net zero emissions as being 'achieve... more The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines net zero emissions as being 'achieved when anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere are balanced by anthropogenic removals over a specified period'.
Este texto resenha as estimativas de curvas de custos marginais de abatimentomarginal abatement c... more Este texto resenha as estimativas de curvas de custos marginais de abatimentomarginal abatement cost curves (MACC)-de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) para a economia brasileira, em particular para o setor industrial. Estudos sobre MACC de base tecnológica têm chamado a atenção de pesquisadores, uma vez que têm demonstrado uma quantidade significativa de possibilidades de mitigação com custo negativo de abatimento, o que implicaria oportunidades de mitigação sem custos diretos. Tal possibilidade motiva o debate sobre economia verde uma vez que a sua adoção poderia, inclusive, aumentar o crescimento. Então, inicialmente, apresenta-se a análise das curvas estimadas para o Brasil e, a partir delas, faz-se uma análise de sensibilidade para estimar parâmetros para discutir as opções de custo negativo. Finalmente concluímos que, apesar da existência de vieses de estimação, a mitigação de GEE no Brasil pode tirar grande proveito dessas opções de custos negativos. Palavras-chave: custos de abatimento de GEE; economia brasileira; setor industrial.
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, Oct 1, 2021
Abstract Brazil's Northeast is the country's least developed region and accounts for half... more Abstract Brazil's Northeast is the country's least developed region and accounts for half of its potential for wind power generation. Recent wind energy projects have directed substantial investment flows to this region and are expected to propel regional socioeconomic development. This paper estimates interregional socioeconomic impacts of onshore wind power deployment in Brazil's Northeast region by applying a new Interregional Input-Output model with endogenized households. By assessing the direct, indirect and induced effects on economic sectors and households, cross-sectoral insights for regional development policies are identified. The set of projects considered consists of 2911 MW procured through auctions, which will become operational by 2023. Results show significant indirect and induced multiplier effects. Results indicate that 10 jobs/MW are created directly, while the total effect is 31.9 jobs/MW, meaning indirect and induced effects can be more than three times higher than direct impacts. More than 50% of the benefits occur in just a few key sectors. In the Northeast, the highest potential benefit on value added is revealed in the sectors: wholesale and retail trade; RD financial intermediation; and real estate activities. These sectors reflect the potential for induced economic co-benefits mainly. However, the Rest of Brazil captures a significant part of total benefits, especially high-income jobs and high value-added activities. Therefore, we recommend that regional development policies focus on key sectors identified here and human development to provide O&M personnel and long-lasting benefits. Lastly, we discuss justice and equality issues related to our results.
Este estudo faz parte do projeto Estudo de mercado de carbono no Brasil: aspectos regulatórios e ... more Este estudo faz parte do projeto Estudo de mercado de carbono no Brasil: aspectos regulatórios e de eficiência. Os autores agradecem a participação do pesquisador Guilherme
Brazil has been planning to increase the share of renewables in its electricity generation mix mo... more Brazil has been planning to increase the share of renewables in its electricity generation mix mostly by raising the share of wind and solar sources. According to the last Brazilian Decennial Energy Plans (PDE 2026 and PDE 2027), during the next decade, the country should more than double its installed capacity for wind power and drastically increase its capacity for solar. About US$ 60 billion are estimated only for new projects. This investment will be mostly concentrated in the poorest regions of the country such as the Northeast region – best site for both wind and solar generation. Therefore, the expansion of renewables also entails socioeconomic and regional issues. By applying the CGE model TERM-BR10 this paper aims to study the economic impacts of the national energy expansion plan (PDE 2026), focusing on impacts over labour market and migration. TERM-BR10 is a regional, bottom-up and recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. It has a highly disaggregated elect...
Abstract Brazil's Northeast is the country's least developed region and accounts for half... more Abstract Brazil's Northeast is the country's least developed region and accounts for half of its potential for wind power generation. Recent wind energy projects have directed substantial investment flows to this region and are expected to propel regional socioeconomic development. This paper estimates interregional socioeconomic impacts of onshore wind power deployment in Brazil's Northeast region by applying a new Interregional Input-Output model with endogenized households. By assessing the direct, indirect and induced effects on economic sectors and households, cross-sectoral insights for regional development policies are identified. The set of projects considered consists of 2911 MW procured through auctions, which will become operational by 2023. Results show significant indirect and induced multiplier effects. Results indicate that 10 jobs/MW are created directly, while the total effect is 31.9 jobs/MW, meaning indirect and induced effects can be more than three times higher than direct impacts. More than 50% of the benefits occur in just a few key sectors. In the Northeast, the highest potential benefit on value added is revealed in the sectors: wholesale and retail trade; RD financial intermediation; and real estate activities. These sectors reflect the potential for induced economic co-benefits mainly. However, the Rest of Brazil captures a significant part of total benefits, especially high-income jobs and high value-added activities. Therefore, we recommend that regional development policies focus on key sectors identified here and human development to provide O&M personnel and long-lasting benefits. Lastly, we discuss justice and equality issues related to our results.
The G7 has launched a partnership designed to help developing countries ‘build back better’ after... more The G7 has launched a partnership designed to help developing countries ‘build back better’ after COVID-19. This ambition is coming up against multiple challenges, but the pandemic created an opportunity to transform international development assistance and promote sustainable economic growth. However, the ability to mobilize private capital is limited by a trust deficit that plagues donors and also recipients. This paper considers proposals – some incremental and some more radical – for mobilizing much higher levels of development finance and establishing more effective and equitable relationships between donors and recipient countries. It evaluates the extent to which development assistance has become a locus of competition between the US and China. It also considers the wide-ranging economic impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the climate crisis. Pressure on the Bretton Woods institutions to reform so that they can meet the scale of the current challenge is growing. The paper ...
A pandemia de covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) teve como consequencia a maior crise economica e social em de... more A pandemia de covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) teve como consequencia a maior crise economica e social em decadas no mundo. Como resultado, trouxe a ressignificacao do papel do Estado na economia, exigindo respostas imediatas para os problemas de oferta e demanda que surgiram como parte da estrategia de combate e como consequencia da crise sanitaria no curto prazo. O debate que floresceu da crise sanitaria e centrado em que tipo de recuperacao se deseja para o pos-pandemia e quais seus impactos no longo prazo. E nesse contexto que se insere e ideia em torno do Green New Deal, que voltou com forca no debate academico como uma estrategia de recuperacao e desenvolvimento pos-pandemia. Ressalte-se o novo contexto politico, com a emergencia do governo de Joe Biden e a cupula do clima em 2021. Esse tema desafia os dogmas economicos e socioambientais do periodo pre-pandemia, colocando como protagonistas os temas da sustentabilidade e do papel do estado e suas capacidades estatais. O objetivo deste tr...
This creates a vicious cycle where flows of knowledge move in a single direction: evidence for po... more This creates a vicious cycle where flows of knowledge move in a single direction: evidence for policymaking about both HICs and LMICs is produced by the former and imported to the latter [4]. In this brief, we analyse the dynamics of energy research on LMICs through a bibliometric assessment of 6,636 papers found in the Web of Science database. Our results confirm that HICs perspectives are dominant and have the greatest impact within research providing evidence for energy policy for LMICs.
In this policy brief we investigate the wind power development in Brazil and its effects on emplo... more In this policy brief we investigate the wind power development in Brazil and its effects on employment and regional growth. Using the CGE model TERM-BR10, we estimate that in the absence of the policy framework that supported wind power expansion there would have been a GDP loss of 0.15% nationally and of 1.1% in the Northeast region (which concentrates over 90% of wind installed capacity), with negative impacts to labour market mostly over skilled jobs.
Brazil has been planning to increase the share of renewables in its electricity generation mix mo... more Brazil has been planning to increase the share of renewables in its electricity generation mix mostly by raising the share of wind and solar sources. According to the last Brazilian Decennial Energy Plans (PDE 2026 and PDE 2027), during the next decade, the country should more than double its installed capacity for wind power and drastically increase its capacity for solar. About US$ 60 billion are estimated only for new projects. This investment will be mostly concentrated in the poorest regions of the country such as the Northeast region – best site for both wind and solar generation. Therefore, the expansion of renewables also entails socioeconomic and regional issues. By applying the CGE model TERM-BR10 this paper aims to study the economic impacts of the national energy expansion plan (PDE 2026), focusing on impacts over labour market and migration. TERM-BR10 is a regional, bottom-up and recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. It has a highly disaggregated elect...
Este texto resenha as estimativas de curvas de custos marginais de abatimento - marginal abatemen... more Este texto resenha as estimativas de curvas de custos marginais de abatimento - marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) - de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) para a economia brasileira, em particular para o setor industrial. Estudos sobre MACC de base tecnologica tem chamado a atencao de pesquisadores, uma vez que tem demonstrado uma quantidade significativa de possibilidades de mitigacao com custo negativo de abatimento, o que implicaria oportunidades de mitigacao sem custos diretos. Tal possibilidade motiva o debate sobre economia verde uma vez que a sua adocao poderia, inclusive, aumentar o crescimento. Entao, inicialmente, apresenta-se a analise das curvas estimadas para o Brasil e, a partir delas, faz-se uma analise de sensibilidade para estimar parâmetros para discutir as opcoes de custo negativo. Finalmente concluimos que, apesar da existencia de vieses de estimacao, a mitigacao de GEE no Brasil pode tirar grande proveito dessas opcoes de custos negativos. Palavras-chave: custos de...
Abstract Renewable Energy development can generate co-benefits, such as jobs, income, and economi... more Abstract Renewable Energy development can generate co-benefits, such as jobs, income, and economic output. Concentrated Solar Power technology is a key technology for the electric power sector decarbonization as it generates dispatchable electricity, while also creates direct, indirect and induced jobs. Using an innovative methodology, this study estimates the socioeconomic co-benefits of Concentrated Solar Power deployment in a developing country, where most of its potential is located in sites with low-income population. First, local content scenarios were defined based on the assessment of the installed and idle capacities of the country’s industry (at the national and local levels) throughout the Concentrated Solar Power value chain. Then, these scenarios are applied to an interregional Input-Output model to estimate direct, indirect and induced jobs, income and economic output generated by the deployment of a 300 MW solar thermal programme. Findings refer to the regional and national levels, emphasizing that the analysis of Concentrated Solar Power impacts should focus on the mesoscale (regional level instead of national levels only). Depending on the local content scenario, findings show that the proposed Concentrated Solar Power development could generate between 45.40 and 61.21 jobs (direct, indirect and induced) per MW installed, and 0.94 to 1.29 million of United States Dollar (income) per MW installed.
Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate... more Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societa...
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines net zero emissions as being 'achieve... more The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines net zero emissions as being 'achieved when anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere are balanced by anthropogenic removals over a specified period'.
Este texto resenha as estimativas de curvas de custos marginais de abatimentomarginal abatement c... more Este texto resenha as estimativas de curvas de custos marginais de abatimentomarginal abatement cost curves (MACC)-de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) para a economia brasileira, em particular para o setor industrial. Estudos sobre MACC de base tecnológica têm chamado a atenção de pesquisadores, uma vez que têm demonstrado uma quantidade significativa de possibilidades de mitigação com custo negativo de abatimento, o que implicaria oportunidades de mitigação sem custos diretos. Tal possibilidade motiva o debate sobre economia verde uma vez que a sua adoção poderia, inclusive, aumentar o crescimento. Então, inicialmente, apresenta-se a análise das curvas estimadas para o Brasil e, a partir delas, faz-se uma análise de sensibilidade para estimar parâmetros para discutir as opções de custo negativo. Finalmente concluímos que, apesar da existência de vieses de estimação, a mitigação de GEE no Brasil pode tirar grande proveito dessas opções de custos negativos. Palavras-chave: custos de abatimento de GEE; economia brasileira; setor industrial.
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, Oct 1, 2021
Abstract Brazil's Northeast is the country's least developed region and accounts for half... more Abstract Brazil's Northeast is the country's least developed region and accounts for half of its potential for wind power generation. Recent wind energy projects have directed substantial investment flows to this region and are expected to propel regional socioeconomic development. This paper estimates interregional socioeconomic impacts of onshore wind power deployment in Brazil's Northeast region by applying a new Interregional Input-Output model with endogenized households. By assessing the direct, indirect and induced effects on economic sectors and households, cross-sectoral insights for regional development policies are identified. The set of projects considered consists of 2911 MW procured through auctions, which will become operational by 2023. Results show significant indirect and induced multiplier effects. Results indicate that 10 jobs/MW are created directly, while the total effect is 31.9 jobs/MW, meaning indirect and induced effects can be more than three times higher than direct impacts. More than 50% of the benefits occur in just a few key sectors. In the Northeast, the highest potential benefit on value added is revealed in the sectors: wholesale and retail trade; RD financial intermediation; and real estate activities. These sectors reflect the potential for induced economic co-benefits mainly. However, the Rest of Brazil captures a significant part of total benefits, especially high-income jobs and high value-added activities. Therefore, we recommend that regional development policies focus on key sectors identified here and human development to provide O&M personnel and long-lasting benefits. Lastly, we discuss justice and equality issues related to our results.
Este estudo faz parte do projeto Estudo de mercado de carbono no Brasil: aspectos regulatórios e ... more Este estudo faz parte do projeto Estudo de mercado de carbono no Brasil: aspectos regulatórios e de eficiência. Os autores agradecem a participação do pesquisador Guilherme
Brazil has been planning to increase the share of renewables in its electricity generation mix mo... more Brazil has been planning to increase the share of renewables in its electricity generation mix mostly by raising the share of wind and solar sources. According to the last Brazilian Decennial Energy Plans (PDE 2026 and PDE 2027), during the next decade, the country should more than double its installed capacity for wind power and drastically increase its capacity for solar. About US$ 60 billion are estimated only for new projects. This investment will be mostly concentrated in the poorest regions of the country such as the Northeast region – best site for both wind and solar generation. Therefore, the expansion of renewables also entails socioeconomic and regional issues. By applying the CGE model TERM-BR10 this paper aims to study the economic impacts of the national energy expansion plan (PDE 2026), focusing on impacts over labour market and migration. TERM-BR10 is a regional, bottom-up and recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. It has a highly disaggregated elect...
Abstract Brazil's Northeast is the country's least developed region and accounts for half... more Abstract Brazil's Northeast is the country's least developed region and accounts for half of its potential for wind power generation. Recent wind energy projects have directed substantial investment flows to this region and are expected to propel regional socioeconomic development. This paper estimates interregional socioeconomic impacts of onshore wind power deployment in Brazil's Northeast region by applying a new Interregional Input-Output model with endogenized households. By assessing the direct, indirect and induced effects on economic sectors and households, cross-sectoral insights for regional development policies are identified. The set of projects considered consists of 2911 MW procured through auctions, which will become operational by 2023. Results show significant indirect and induced multiplier effects. Results indicate that 10 jobs/MW are created directly, while the total effect is 31.9 jobs/MW, meaning indirect and induced effects can be more than three times higher than direct impacts. More than 50% of the benefits occur in just a few key sectors. In the Northeast, the highest potential benefit on value added is revealed in the sectors: wholesale and retail trade; RD financial intermediation; and real estate activities. These sectors reflect the potential for induced economic co-benefits mainly. However, the Rest of Brazil captures a significant part of total benefits, especially high-income jobs and high value-added activities. Therefore, we recommend that regional development policies focus on key sectors identified here and human development to provide O&M personnel and long-lasting benefits. Lastly, we discuss justice and equality issues related to our results.
The G7 has launched a partnership designed to help developing countries ‘build back better’ after... more The G7 has launched a partnership designed to help developing countries ‘build back better’ after COVID-19. This ambition is coming up against multiple challenges, but the pandemic created an opportunity to transform international development assistance and promote sustainable economic growth. However, the ability to mobilize private capital is limited by a trust deficit that plagues donors and also recipients. This paper considers proposals – some incremental and some more radical – for mobilizing much higher levels of development finance and establishing more effective and equitable relationships between donors and recipient countries. It evaluates the extent to which development assistance has become a locus of competition between the US and China. It also considers the wide-ranging economic impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the climate crisis. Pressure on the Bretton Woods institutions to reform so that they can meet the scale of the current challenge is growing. The paper ...
A pandemia de covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) teve como consequencia a maior crise economica e social em de... more A pandemia de covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) teve como consequencia a maior crise economica e social em decadas no mundo. Como resultado, trouxe a ressignificacao do papel do Estado na economia, exigindo respostas imediatas para os problemas de oferta e demanda que surgiram como parte da estrategia de combate e como consequencia da crise sanitaria no curto prazo. O debate que floresceu da crise sanitaria e centrado em que tipo de recuperacao se deseja para o pos-pandemia e quais seus impactos no longo prazo. E nesse contexto que se insere e ideia em torno do Green New Deal, que voltou com forca no debate academico como uma estrategia de recuperacao e desenvolvimento pos-pandemia. Ressalte-se o novo contexto politico, com a emergencia do governo de Joe Biden e a cupula do clima em 2021. Esse tema desafia os dogmas economicos e socioambientais do periodo pre-pandemia, colocando como protagonistas os temas da sustentabilidade e do papel do estado e suas capacidades estatais. O objetivo deste tr...
This creates a vicious cycle where flows of knowledge move in a single direction: evidence for po... more This creates a vicious cycle where flows of knowledge move in a single direction: evidence for policymaking about both HICs and LMICs is produced by the former and imported to the latter [4]. In this brief, we analyse the dynamics of energy research on LMICs through a bibliometric assessment of 6,636 papers found in the Web of Science database. Our results confirm that HICs perspectives are dominant and have the greatest impact within research providing evidence for energy policy for LMICs.
In this policy brief we investigate the wind power development in Brazil and its effects on emplo... more In this policy brief we investigate the wind power development in Brazil and its effects on employment and regional growth. Using the CGE model TERM-BR10, we estimate that in the absence of the policy framework that supported wind power expansion there would have been a GDP loss of 0.15% nationally and of 1.1% in the Northeast region (which concentrates over 90% of wind installed capacity), with negative impacts to labour market mostly over skilled jobs.
Brazil has been planning to increase the share of renewables in its electricity generation mix mo... more Brazil has been planning to increase the share of renewables in its electricity generation mix mostly by raising the share of wind and solar sources. According to the last Brazilian Decennial Energy Plans (PDE 2026 and PDE 2027), during the next decade, the country should more than double its installed capacity for wind power and drastically increase its capacity for solar. About US$ 60 billion are estimated only for new projects. This investment will be mostly concentrated in the poorest regions of the country such as the Northeast region – best site for both wind and solar generation. Therefore, the expansion of renewables also entails socioeconomic and regional issues. By applying the CGE model TERM-BR10 this paper aims to study the economic impacts of the national energy expansion plan (PDE 2026), focusing on impacts over labour market and migration. TERM-BR10 is a regional, bottom-up and recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. It has a highly disaggregated elect...
Este texto resenha as estimativas de curvas de custos marginais de abatimento - marginal abatemen... more Este texto resenha as estimativas de curvas de custos marginais de abatimento - marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) - de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) para a economia brasileira, em particular para o setor industrial. Estudos sobre MACC de base tecnologica tem chamado a atencao de pesquisadores, uma vez que tem demonstrado uma quantidade significativa de possibilidades de mitigacao com custo negativo de abatimento, o que implicaria oportunidades de mitigacao sem custos diretos. Tal possibilidade motiva o debate sobre economia verde uma vez que a sua adocao poderia, inclusive, aumentar o crescimento. Entao, inicialmente, apresenta-se a analise das curvas estimadas para o Brasil e, a partir delas, faz-se uma analise de sensibilidade para estimar parâmetros para discutir as opcoes de custo negativo. Finalmente concluimos que, apesar da existencia de vieses de estimacao, a mitigacao de GEE no Brasil pode tirar grande proveito dessas opcoes de custos negativos. Palavras-chave: custos de...
Abstract Renewable Energy development can generate co-benefits, such as jobs, income, and economi... more Abstract Renewable Energy development can generate co-benefits, such as jobs, income, and economic output. Concentrated Solar Power technology is a key technology for the electric power sector decarbonization as it generates dispatchable electricity, while also creates direct, indirect and induced jobs. Using an innovative methodology, this study estimates the socioeconomic co-benefits of Concentrated Solar Power deployment in a developing country, where most of its potential is located in sites with low-income population. First, local content scenarios were defined based on the assessment of the installed and idle capacities of the country’s industry (at the national and local levels) throughout the Concentrated Solar Power value chain. Then, these scenarios are applied to an interregional Input-Output model to estimate direct, indirect and induced jobs, income and economic output generated by the deployment of a 300 MW solar thermal programme. Findings refer to the regional and national levels, emphasizing that the analysis of Concentrated Solar Power impacts should focus on the mesoscale (regional level instead of national levels only). Depending on the local content scenario, findings show that the proposed Concentrated Solar Power development could generate between 45.40 and 61.21 jobs (direct, indirect and induced) per MW installed, and 0.94 to 1.29 million of United States Dollar (income) per MW installed.
Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate... more Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societa...
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