Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2010
With the threat of wildfire hanging over many communities in the Western and Southern United Stat... more With the threat of wildfire hanging over many communities in the Western and Southern United States, wildfire mitigation is evolving into a significant public responsibility for rural and urban edge county governments. Regional governance is an important piece of the effort to reduce wildfire risks although still weakly developed as a policy arena. This project explores two dimensions in which planning support systems can support regional governance: assessing patterns of wildfire risk accumulation; and, evaluating land use planning alternatives and their effects on cumulative risk levels. These tools are examined for regional governance using a prototype planning information system, the Alternative Growth Futures (AGF) tool, a scenario-building approach developed at the University of Colorado Denver. The project develops a hybrid urban growth model that integrates logistic regression techniques and methods for simulation of growth alternatives. This model is used to evaluate the attractiveness of undeveloped building sites with respect to natural amenities, distance to primary urban services and site characteristics such as slope. The model and scenariotesting framework are reasonably robust and suggest that regional spatial accounting methods have potential as a framework for intergovernmental and public discussion around wildfire planning.
Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 2008
Over the past thirty years, recreation communities in many parts of the globe have gone through c... more Over the past thirty years, recreation communities in many parts of the globe have gone through cycles of diversification and integration into complex recreation regions. As resort communities mature, they face increasing pressures on scarce recreational resources, demands for economic diversification, and changing attitudes toward tourism on the part of local residents. A variety of land-use management practices and economic development initiatives has emerged in resort towns in response to resource congestion and other growth issues. In this paper we explore alternative growth strategies through a simulation of housing decisions by primary actors in resort land markets. We use a multiagent system to model the dynamics of growth regimes, assess the influence of recreational and town amenities, and evaluate the effect of alternative growth processes on long-term development patterns. Our case study area is Steamboat Springs and surrounding parts of Routt County, a four-season recrea...
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2007
Agent-based models offer a promising framework for analyzing interactions between agents and a he... more Agent-based models offer a promising framework for analyzing interactions between agents and a heterogeneous landscape. Researchers have identified a complex of factors that influence exurban development, including demographic shifts and location attractiveness of natural amenities as a magnet to amenity-seeking migrants. Attractiveness is often defined in terms of local or on-lot amenities, including scenic views, the availability of natural features, and low levels of noise. However, exurban-growth models have not fully incorporated a fundamental insight of this literature, that the location behavior of exurban residents is sensitive to fine-grained variations in their biophysical environment. In this study we evaluate how agents and households operate in exurban environments and respond to biophysical features. We simulate household decisionmaking in terms of preferences for features such as site accessibility, two-dimensional amenities, and three-dimensional scenic views. Our re...
The purpose of this article is to examine municipal property acquisition patterns in shrinking ci... more The purpose of this article is to examine municipal property acquisition patterns in shrinking cities. We use data from the City of Buffalo’s municipal property auction records to analyze the spatial distribution of properties offered for sale in its annual tax foreclosure auction. In addition to these data, we examine demolition and building permit records. Our analysis suggests that cities like Buffalo follow strategies based on an urban growth paradigm when responding to abandonment. This paradigm operates under the assumption that growth is a constant and urban development is only limited by fiscal constraints, underdeveloped systems of urban governance, environmental degradation, and resistance by anti-growth coalitions. We recommend that planners in shrinking cities de-emphasize growth-based planning and focus on rightsizing strategies. These strategies are based on the assumption that growth is not a constant. Consequently, urban revitalization is concentrated in a smaller urban footprint.
Policies focusing on enforcing property code violations and the improvement of vacant properties ... more Policies focusing on enforcing property code violations and the improvement of vacant properties are argued to be more efficacious than demolition policies to fight urban blight. This study applies parcel level data to a multi-year hybrid modeling structure. A fine-grained analysis is conducted on the dynamic patterns of abandonment and demolition for a unique period of four years before and after the City of Buffalo’s stepped-up demolition efforts. Results showed that proximity to vacant and abandoned properties, sustained over the years, had the greatest impact on the possibility of a property being abandoned. The second greatest positive impact on property abandonment was small lot front size. Results also showed that neighborhood vacancy density had the greatest negative impact on surrounding housing sales prices over the years. There was no significant impact of demolition on housing sales prices. These findings suggested that the City should aim to have more incentive programs that are tailored to control the number of vacant properties, rather than focusing primarily on demolition-oriented programs.
This article focuses on the manner in which affordable housing fits into anchor-based strategies ... more This article focuses on the manner in which affordable housing fits into anchor-based strategies for urban revitalization. It involves quantitative analysis of the location of existing HUD-subsidized housing in relation to neighborhood characteristics. The goal of the article is twofold. First, we examine the degree to which neighborhood characteristics associated with neighborhoods of opportunity correlate with the location of HUD-subsidized housing in shrinking cities. Second, we make recommendations for more equitable approaches to anchor-based urban revitalization. Our analysis uses a unique database developed to measure neighborhood characteristics in shrinking US cities. Our findings suggest that the location of affordable housing is not correlated with proximity to institutional and neighborhood amenities, where anchor-based revitalization is targeted. As a result, we make recommendations to link future affordable housing siting to anchor-based strategies for inner-city revitalization.
Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2010
With the threat of wildfire hanging over many communities in the Western and Southern United Stat... more With the threat of wildfire hanging over many communities in the Western and Southern United States, wildfire mitigation is evolving into a significant public responsibility for rural and urban edge county governments. Regional governance is an important piece of the effort to reduce wildfire risks although still weakly developed as a policy arena. This project explores two dimensions in which planning support systems can support regional governance: assessing patterns of wildfire risk accumulation; and, evaluating land use planning alternatives and their effects on cumulative risk levels. These tools are examined for regional governance using a prototype planning information system, the Alternative Growth Futures (AGF) tool, a scenario-building approach developed at the University of Colorado Denver. The project develops a hybrid urban growth model that integrates logistic regression techniques and methods for simulation of growth alternatives. This model is used to evaluate the attractiveness of undeveloped building sites with respect to natural amenities, distance to primary urban services and site characteristics such as slope. The model and scenariotesting framework are reasonably robust and suggest that regional spatial accounting methods have potential as a framework for intergovernmental and public discussion around wildfire planning.
Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 2008
Over the past thirty years, recreation communities in many parts of the globe have gone through c... more Over the past thirty years, recreation communities in many parts of the globe have gone through cycles of diversification and integration into complex recreation regions. As resort communities mature, they face increasing pressures on scarce recreational resources, demands for economic diversification, and changing attitudes toward tourism on the part of local residents. A variety of land-use management practices and economic development initiatives has emerged in resort towns in response to resource congestion and other growth issues. In this paper we explore alternative growth strategies through a simulation of housing decisions by primary actors in resort land markets. We use a multiagent system to model the dynamics of growth regimes, assess the influence of recreational and town amenities, and evaluate the effect of alternative growth processes on long-term development patterns. Our case study area is Steamboat Springs and surrounding parts of Routt County, a four-season recrea...
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2007
Agent-based models offer a promising framework for analyzing interactions between agents and a he... more Agent-based models offer a promising framework for analyzing interactions between agents and a heterogeneous landscape. Researchers have identified a complex of factors that influence exurban development, including demographic shifts and location attractiveness of natural amenities as a magnet to amenity-seeking migrants. Attractiveness is often defined in terms of local or on-lot amenities, including scenic views, the availability of natural features, and low levels of noise. However, exurban-growth models have not fully incorporated a fundamental insight of this literature, that the location behavior of exurban residents is sensitive to fine-grained variations in their biophysical environment. In this study we evaluate how agents and households operate in exurban environments and respond to biophysical features. We simulate household decisionmaking in terms of preferences for features such as site accessibility, two-dimensional amenities, and three-dimensional scenic views. Our re...
The purpose of this article is to examine municipal property acquisition patterns in shrinking ci... more The purpose of this article is to examine municipal property acquisition patterns in shrinking cities. We use data from the City of Buffalo’s municipal property auction records to analyze the spatial distribution of properties offered for sale in its annual tax foreclosure auction. In addition to these data, we examine demolition and building permit records. Our analysis suggests that cities like Buffalo follow strategies based on an urban growth paradigm when responding to abandonment. This paradigm operates under the assumption that growth is a constant and urban development is only limited by fiscal constraints, underdeveloped systems of urban governance, environmental degradation, and resistance by anti-growth coalitions. We recommend that planners in shrinking cities de-emphasize growth-based planning and focus on rightsizing strategies. These strategies are based on the assumption that growth is not a constant. Consequently, urban revitalization is concentrated in a smaller urban footprint.
Policies focusing on enforcing property code violations and the improvement of vacant properties ... more Policies focusing on enforcing property code violations and the improvement of vacant properties are argued to be more efficacious than demolition policies to fight urban blight. This study applies parcel level data to a multi-year hybrid modeling structure. A fine-grained analysis is conducted on the dynamic patterns of abandonment and demolition for a unique period of four years before and after the City of Buffalo’s stepped-up demolition efforts. Results showed that proximity to vacant and abandoned properties, sustained over the years, had the greatest impact on the possibility of a property being abandoned. The second greatest positive impact on property abandonment was small lot front size. Results also showed that neighborhood vacancy density had the greatest negative impact on surrounding housing sales prices over the years. There was no significant impact of demolition on housing sales prices. These findings suggested that the City should aim to have more incentive programs that are tailored to control the number of vacant properties, rather than focusing primarily on demolition-oriented programs.
This article focuses on the manner in which affordable housing fits into anchor-based strategies ... more This article focuses on the manner in which affordable housing fits into anchor-based strategies for urban revitalization. It involves quantitative analysis of the location of existing HUD-subsidized housing in relation to neighborhood characteristics. The goal of the article is twofold. First, we examine the degree to which neighborhood characteristics associated with neighborhoods of opportunity correlate with the location of HUD-subsidized housing in shrinking cities. Second, we make recommendations for more equitable approaches to anchor-based urban revitalization. Our analysis uses a unique database developed to measure neighborhood characteristics in shrinking US cities. Our findings suggest that the location of affordable housing is not correlated with proximity to institutional and neighborhood amenities, where anchor-based revitalization is targeted. As a result, we make recommendations to link future affordable housing siting to anchor-based strategies for inner-city revitalization.
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