Attempts to correlate increases in aid with economic growth have persisted in research and policy... more Attempts to correlate increases in aid with economic growth have persisted in research and policy circles for over five decades to justify foreign assistance from rich to poor countries. While the vast majority of studies find no causal connection between them, some argue that there is a correlation between aid and growth for certain countries having strong policies and institutions. It is this argument that has the greatest significance for Uganda’s aid infrastructure in today’s socio-economic climate. Uganda has come a long way from the aiddependent post-civil war economy of the late 1980s, where aid levels once reached 30 percent of GDP (Roberts & Fagernas, 2004). Pertinent questions have to be raised that take into account the improved level of economic development and institutional capacity of Uganda. Now that Uganda is on a sustained economic growth path with sound fiscal, monetary, and trade policies, will increasing aid flows have an important impact on growth? Or, is there ...
This paper investigates the economic impacts of the new East African Community customs union, usi... more This paper investigates the economic impacts of the new East African Community customs union, using a quantitative model of East African trade based on simple Vinerian customs union theory. Simulation results indicate that Uganda's economic welfare would be significantly compromised if the new customs union establishes the common external tariff substantially above the current tariff level in Uganda, as presently planned. Kenya and Tanzania, however, would benefit because their current trade regimes are more protectionist than Uganda's. Moreover, trade creation in both Kenya and Tanzania under the new customs union plan would promote industry competitiveness, but not in Uganda where "import discipline" would be reduced for domestic industry, jeopardizing economic benefits of recent trade policy reforms in the country. Simulation results also illustrate that regional trade liberalization on a nondiscriminatory basis, consistent with "open regionalism" advo...
This paper investigates the economic impacts of the new East African Community customs union, usi... more This paper investigates the economic impacts of the new East African Community customs union, using a quantitative model of East African trade based on simple Vinerian customs union theory. Simulation results indicate that Uganda's economic welfare would be significantly compromised if the new customs union establishes the common external tariff substantially above the current tariff level in Uganda, as presently planned. Kenya and Tanzania, however, would benefit because their current trade regimes are more protectionist than Uganda's. Moreover, trade creation in both Kenya and Tanzania under the new customs union plan would promote industry competitiveness, but not in Uganda where "import discipline" would be reduced for domestic industry, jeopardizing economic benefits of recent trade policy reforms in the country. Simulation results also illustrate that regional trade liberalization on a nondiscriminatory basis, consistent with "open regionalism" advocated by the African Development Bank, would yield greater gains in economic welfare for all three East African countries than formation of the new customs union.
Attempts to correlate increases in aid with economic growth have persisted in research and policy... more Attempts to correlate increases in aid with economic growth have persisted in research and policy circles for over five decades to justify foreign assistance from rich to poor countries. While the vast majority of studies find no causal connection between them, some argue that there is a correlation between aid and growth for certain countries having strong policies and institutions. It is this argument that has the greatest significance for Uganda’s aid infrastructure in today’s socio-economic climate. Uganda has come a long way from the aiddependent post-civil war economy of the late 1980s, where aid levels once reached 30 percent of GDP (Roberts & Fagernas, 2004). Pertinent questions have to be raised that take into account the improved level of economic development and institutional capacity of Uganda. Now that Uganda is on a sustained economic growth path with sound fiscal, monetary, and trade policies, will increasing aid flows have an important impact on growth? Or, is there ...
This paper investigates the economic impacts of the new East African Community customs union, usi... more This paper investigates the economic impacts of the new East African Community customs union, using a quantitative model of East African trade based on simple Vinerian customs union theory. Simulation results indicate that Uganda's economic welfare would be significantly compromised if the new customs union establishes the common external tariff substantially above the current tariff level in Uganda, as presently planned. Kenya and Tanzania, however, would benefit because their current trade regimes are more protectionist than Uganda's. Moreover, trade creation in both Kenya and Tanzania under the new customs union plan would promote industry competitiveness, but not in Uganda where "import discipline" would be reduced for domestic industry, jeopardizing economic benefits of recent trade policy reforms in the country. Simulation results also illustrate that regional trade liberalization on a nondiscriminatory basis, consistent with "open regionalism" advo...
This paper investigates the economic impacts of the new East African Community customs union, usi... more This paper investigates the economic impacts of the new East African Community customs union, using a quantitative model of East African trade based on simple Vinerian customs union theory. Simulation results indicate that Uganda's economic welfare would be significantly compromised if the new customs union establishes the common external tariff substantially above the current tariff level in Uganda, as presently planned. Kenya and Tanzania, however, would benefit because their current trade regimes are more protectionist than Uganda's. Moreover, trade creation in both Kenya and Tanzania under the new customs union plan would promote industry competitiveness, but not in Uganda where "import discipline" would be reduced for domestic industry, jeopardizing economic benefits of recent trade policy reforms in the country. Simulation results also illustrate that regional trade liberalization on a nondiscriminatory basis, consistent with "open regionalism" advocated by the African Development Bank, would yield greater gains in economic welfare for all three East African countries than formation of the new customs union.
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Papers by Lawrence Kiiza