Papers by Lars Hultkrantz
Sid 1 Inledning 2 Det tänkta sambandet mellan infrastruktur och tillväxt 2.1 Metodproblem 3. Någr... more Sid 1 Inledning 2 Det tänkta sambandet mellan infrastruktur och tillväxt 2.1 Metodproblem 3. Några studier av sambandet mellan infrastruktur och tillväxt 3.
Economic and Policy Review, 2003
It is an open issue whether the EC's new legal framework for electronic communications is a frame... more It is an open issue whether the EC's new legal framework for electronic communications is a framework for a gradual deregulation of telecommunications or whether, on the contrary, the "intermediate" regulatory regimes of the transition from monopoly to competition will be replaced by more forceful and encompassing regulatory intervention. This paper discusses these issues in the Swedish context. Sweden has been at the forefront of telecommunications liberalisation in Europe, but is now making an example of re-regulation. Mobile telephony markets have come under a regulatory regime that is stricter than the one that was designed at the time of liberalisation, including rate-of-return regulation of interconnection charges; unbundling requirements; and "everything-now" universal service obligations. It is not clear that the new legal framework will reverse this development. The paper recommends a focus in the coming implementation process on the regulation of essential facility bottlenecks and, in markets with network competition, on measures to avoid consumer lock-in.
Applied Economics, Feb 24, 2018
Martin Weitzman has suggested a method for calculating social discount rates for long-term invest... more Martin Weitzman has suggested a method for calculating social discount rates for long-term investments when project returns are covariant with consumption or other macroeconomic variables, so-called 'tail-hedge discounting'. This method relies on a parameter called 'real project gamma' that measures the proportion of project returns that is covariant with the macroeconomic variable. We compare two approaches for estimation of this gamma when the project returns and the macroeconomic variable are cointegrated. First, we use Weitzman's own approach, and second a simple data transformation that keeps gamma within the zero to one interval. In a Monte-Carlo study, we show that the method of using a standardized series is better and robust under different data-generating processes. Both approaches are examined in a Monte-Carlo experiment and applied to Swedish time-series data from 1950-2011 for annual time-series data for rail freight (a measure of returns from rail investments) and GDP.
Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, Feb 1, 2013
High-Speed Rail (HSR) is designed for travelers with high value of time. HSR offer fast and relia... more High-Speed Rail (HSR) is designed for travelers with high value of time. HSR offer fast and reliable services and good possibilities for work during the journey. Surprisingly, these benefits of HSR investment proposals are often appraised by use of travel-time valuations of people who use conventional (intercity) train services. The standard approach builds on two major assumptions, linearity of demand, and that the value of time is unchanged between the "before" and "after" alternatives, i.e., that change in the average value of time of passengers can be ignored. While the first of these is well known, the second is not always observed. However, the spread of values of time between individual travelers is large and is an essential motivation for HSR investments. This note therefore considers whether the assumption that the value of time remains unchanged by the speed improvement induces any significant bias in the appraisal. We first use a modal-mix model where travelers have varying value of time to outline some conceptual points and then discuss to what extent these may affect the social profitability of three recently constructed or proposed HSR lines: Oslo-Stockholm (Norway and Sweden), Stockholm-Göteborg (Sweden) and Beijing-Shanghai Hongqiao (China). We conclude that a RoHbased evaluation of an HSR line should be complemented by a sensitivity analysis of how the outcome is affected by possible changes of the composition of travelers with different values of time.
Journal of Rural Studies, 1995
Significant alternative specific intercept terms have been held in random utility models estimate... more Significant alternative specific intercept terms have been held in random utility models estimated on data from choice experiments with travel alternatives within the same travel mode. Unlike between-mode estimates these terms cannot be explained as mode-specific fix effects. Instead they have been interpreted as signs of inertia reflecting heuristic decision rules used for avoiding spending cognitive effort on choosing between alternatives with small differences in total utility. It turns out, however, that value-of-time assessments are sensitive to whether this term is included or not in the value-of-time formula. The present study offers a reconcilation to previous conflicting approaches. It is assumed that subjective values can be inferred only from choices between alternatives with a minimum difference in travel time. This threshold varies between individuals and is therefore modelled as a stochastic component. This approach makes it possible to achieve measures of aggregate value-of-travel-time that are consistent to economic theory, in spite of a seemingly anomalous individual choice behaviour. (A)
Environmental and Resource Economics, Mar 1, 1997
This paper estimates the impact of the Chemobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international to... more This paper estimates the impact of the Chemobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978-1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK.
VTI Rapport, 2013
Krisberedskap är exempel på kollektiva nyttigheter där det ofta är politiska beslut om finansieri... more Krisberedskap är exempel på kollektiva nyttigheter där det ofta är politiska beslut om finansiering, dimensionering och inriktning som avgör vad och hur mycket som produceras. Den offentliga sektorns resurser är dock begränsade samtidigt som kostnaderna för olika typer av krisberedskap kan bli hur höga som helst. Förslag på åtgärder måste därför så långt det är möjligt baseras på överväganden av hur de resurser som sätts in med offentliga medel, eller av andra aktörer, samlat används effektivt. Ett verktyg som ofta används i sådana sammanhang är samhällsekonomisk analysmetodik. Denna rapport diskuterar förutsättningar för att använda denna metodik för att ta fram underlag för strategiska beslut när det gäller inriktning och dimensionerar av den svenska krisberedskapen
Forest Science, Sep 1, 1991
ABSTRACT
Springer eBooks, 1999
... 2It is also assumed that growth is age dependent and that there are no fixed costs in harvest... more ... 2It is also assumed that growth is age dependent and that there are no fixed costs in harvesting. 187 J. Abildtrup et al. ... unified labour market. The previously lower wage level for rural labour (for instance forestry workers) caught up to the urban (manufacturing industry) level. ...
Transportation, Aug 11, 2017
This paper demonstrates that commonly used methods for eliciting value of time can give downward ... more This paper demonstrates that commonly used methods for eliciting value of time can give downward bias and investigates whether this can be reversed by 'referencing' as has been suggested (e.g., by Hensher in Transp Res B 44:735-752, 2010), i.e. with attributes of choice alternatives pivoted around a recently made journey. Value-of-time choice experiments were conducted in two rounds. In the first round, real and hypothetical purchases of performance of a simple time-consuming task were done to assess hypothetical bias; in the second round, participants were asked to do hypothetical travel choices with and without 'referencing' to a specific occasion, to be able to test 'referencing' as a remedy to the bias confirmed in the first round. A negative hypothetical bias was found for allocation of time at another occasion than the present (but not for a decision concern allocation of time 'here and now'). A striking result was held from the second round experiments: 'referencing' indeed affects responses, but by reducing the elicited implicit value of time, so any negative hypothetical bias that would exist without 'referencing' would have been further magnified by the 'referencing' design.
Journal of Forest Economics, 2014
The price of timber stumpage is one of the few natural-resource rents that can be directly observ... more The price of timber stumpage is one of the few natural-resource rents that can be directly observed as a market price. Rules for optimal timber harvesting under uncertainty have been found to depend on whether the timber rent price is non-stationary or stationary. In this study we extend previous research by Hultkrantz (1995) that tested for unit-root with an exogenous break point in Swedish stumpage prices from , employing data up to 2011, hence for 103 years, and unit-root tests with an endogenously selected break point. We find support for a structural level break at the end of WW2 and that non-stationarity can be rejected. We show that this is a robust conclusion.
Current Issues in Tourism, Apr 1, 2002
... 3G, therefore, is likely to spur e-trade in general, and e-tourism, more in Europe than in th... more ... 3G, therefore, is likely to spur e-trade in general, and e-tourism, more in Europe than in the United States, as it overcomes the security credibility hurdles crippling Europeane-trade. 154 Current Issues in Tourism Page 7. Wireless access. ...
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Mar 1, 1992
With an overlapping generations model for trees and humans, it is shown that in a small open timb... more With an overlapping generations model for trees and humans, it is shown that in a small open timber producing economy, both in a setting where the economy is planned in order to maximize an intertemporal social welfare function and in a decentralized market economy, long-term forest investments should be evaluated by their net present value. This is so provided that the existing generation has some, if even very small, concern for the well-being of the next generation. A review of empirical studies among nonindustrial private forest owners in the U.S. and in Sweden gives support to the suggestion that this mechanism, based on a "tinge of altruism," may be more important in promoting long-term silvicultural investments than the incentives given by existing land markets. o 1Y92 Academic PUSS, IX.
Health policy, Dec 1, 2012
Recent focus on cost-benefit/socio-economic assessment of government "life-saving" programmes wit... more Recent focus on cost-benefit/socio-economic assessment of government "life-saving" programmes within public health, pharmaceutics, transport, and civil contingencies has spurred a wave of empirical research on the value of a statistical life (VSL) in Sweden. This paper provides an overview of the received evidence from a range of studies in one country and over a relatively short time period. A literature search was conducted in Econlit, Pubmed, Google Scholar and in bibliographies of published papers. Twelve studies on VSL with a total of 48 VSL estimates, published with data from Sweden from 1996 onwards, were identified. Among all estimates VSL varies from 9 to 1121 million SEK (D 0.9-121 million). Based on a set of additional quality inclusion criteria, as used also in a recent global review of VSL studies, the sample is restricted to 9 studies with a total of 29 VSL estimates with VSL varying from 9 to 98 million SEK (D 0.9-10.6 million). The raw mean among these estimates is 34.6 million SEK (D 3.7 million) and the median is 23 million SEK (D 2.5 million). Currently, official authorities in Sweden recommend a VSL of 22 million Swedish kronor (D 2.4 million). We also point out important concerns regarding validity of these estimates: primarily the problem that VSL is significantly related to the size of the mortality risk reduction showing significant scale insensitivity, in contrast to theoretical assumptions but in line with previous empirical findings.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Mar 1, 2006
Abstract We report the results of a contingent valuation study for finding a conservative estimat... more Abstract We report the results of a contingent valuation study for finding a conservative estimate of the value-of-statistical-life in an urban road safety context in Sweden. We estimate the value of both a private-good device and a public-good safety program. The reduction of risk is ...
Journal of Travel Research, Jul 1, 1994
to use promotional/commercial products, (2) more likely to return to Canada within the next year ... more to use promotional/commercial products, (2) more likely to return to Canada within the next year to two years, (3) less interested in traveling in the United States, and (4) more likely to travel extensively to other countries. Although these visi- tors spend less on individual trips than other travelers, they generate a higher cumulative yield over their travel life cycle. Owing to the cost effectiveness of retaining customers, it was determined that U.S. repeat visitors are Canada's cash cow.
Tourism Economics, Jun 1, 1995
This is a study of demand by Swedish residents for recreational travel (long-distance daytrip exc... more This is a study of demand by Swedish residents for recreational travel (long-distance daytrip excursions and tourist travel involving overnight stay). We estimate the relationships determining total recreational travel expenditures and the number of trips for six specific purposes (outbound international travel; domestic trips for visiting friends and relatives; staying in a leisure-cottage; participating in activities; seeing an attraction or event; and trips for making experiences). These results are obtained by general-to-specific autoregressive distributed lag modelling using monthly time-series from national telephone-survey data from 1989:1 to 1993: 10. Estimated dynamic equations are used for an assessment of the impact on tourism of the major reform of the Swedish tax system 1990-91. A turbulent period for Swedish tourism and the travel industry started in 1990. Following a prosperous decade exhibiting steady growth in recreational travel within, to, and from Sweden, the industry was struck first by a series of tax increases, part of the major Swedish tax reform in 1990-91, and then by the deepest recession experienced in Sweden since the great depression. After these blows came a series of ameliorating reductions in the same taxes and on the top of that a 30% depreciation of the Swedish currency after its release from the fixed rate towards the ECD on 19 November 1992. Clearly, this experience offers an interesting setting for the study of the responsiveness of recreational travel to changes in economic conditions. A fortunate coincidence is that in 1988 the Swedish National Tourism Council (Sveriges Turisrrad) launched a continuous telephone survey, giving detailed assessments of recreational travel by Swedish residents since then. The survey, which will be called here by its Swedish acronym TDB,l is based on 2 000 telephone interviews per month, selecting respondents in a two-stage process beginning with random digit dialling. The respondents are asked about major trips during the month preceding the month when the interview is undertaken. Since the questions cover a large number of issues related to these trips and to The author is grateful to Kurt Brannas and Per Johansson,
Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, 1991
Forest policy regulation in Sweden works through both legislative rules and economic support to s... more Forest policy regulation in Sweden works through both legislative rules and economic support to specific activities, mostly in northern Sweden. The subsidies are, to a large extent, motivated by regional policy considerations. In this study, the effects on the number of working hours in forestry in northern Sweden are evaluated. Advantage is taken of the unintended quasi-experimental design of the subsidy programme. Also the impact on seasonal unemployment among forest workers is studied using time series analysis. It is found that the programme has not increased the number of working hours (although a small increase in self-employed forest work is found). However, the programme seems to have led to a rise in wintertime unemployment.
Uploads
Papers by Lars Hultkrantz