Master's degree works by Alfonso de Miguel Arribas
Based on 2012-data about international trade, an export/import world network is built. We carry o... more Based on 2012-data about international trade, an export/import world network is built. We carry on a basic complex network analysis on it, determining basic metrics. No economic analysis is intended. As expected, the network displays small-world properties and globalization patterns.
A basic study of Lotka-Volterra model is carried. We justify the construction of the differential... more A basic study of Lotka-Volterra model is carried. We justify the construction of the differential system of equations for the prey and predator. We analyze the system from two distinct points of view: the deterministic one, based on Dynamical System Theory, and the stochastic one, based on Markov jump stochastic processes: elementary reactions and Van Kampen's expansion of the Master equation. Stationary solutions are then compared.
A complex network is built based on FIFA's summer transfer window for the season 2014-2015. Nodes... more A complex network is built based on FIFA's summer transfer window for the season 2014-2015. Nodes are football clubs, links between nodes denote a transaction. The network is complete just for the eight main UEFA football leagues. Once constructed, a basic analysis is done. We focus on basic metrics such as degree distribution, centrality metrics, or modularity, among others.
In this task we study the problem of coalition-fragmentation of 5 countries in the framework of G... more In this task we study the problem of coalition-fragmentation of 5 countries in the framework of Galam's Coliation Dynamics. Firstly, we introduce the Galam formalism and its application to the 2 and 3-country problem. Then, we analyze a specific configuration in a 5-country network. An acceptance-rejection algorithm is proposed to simulate the coalition dynamics and results are obtained. Finally, a dissertation about possible extensions and generalizations of Galam model is offered.
Papers by Alfonso de Miguel Arribas
Scientific Reports, Mar 18, 2023
Madrid region (Spain) followed a rather unique nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) by establishi... more Madrid region (Spain) followed a rather unique nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) by establishing a strategy of perimeter lockdowns (PLs) that banned travels to and from areas satisfying certain epidemiological risk criteria. PLs were pursued to avoid harsher restrictions, but some studies have found that the particular implementation by Madrid authorities was rather ineffective. Based on Madrid's case, we devise a general, minimal framework to investigate the PLs effectiveness by using a data-driven metapopulation epidemiological model of a city, and explore under which circumstances the PLs could be a good NPI. The model is informed with real mobility data from Madrid to contextualize its results, but it can be generalized elsewhere. The lowest lockdown activation threshold considered (14-day cumulative incidence rate of 20 cases per every 10 5 inhabitants) shows a prevalence reduction > 20% with respect to the scenario = 10 3 , more akin to the case of Madrid, and assuming no further mitigation. Only the combination of = 20 and mobility reduction > 90% can avoid PLs for more than > 20% of the system. The combination of low and strong local transmissibility reduction is key to minimize the impact, but the latter is harder to achieve given that we assume a situation with highly mitigated transmission, resembling the one observed during the second wave of COVID-19 in Madrid. Thus, we conclude that a generalized lockdown is hard to avoid under any realistic setting if only this strategy is applied. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we have become acquainted with a myriad of measures to halt or at least control the spreading of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 at different scales. Measures that are different from vaccination and medical treatments are called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). These may include travel bans, lockdowns of different geographical extensions, curfews, restrictions on occupancy in public closed spaces, or self-protection measures such as wearing masks or sanitation (see 1 for a comprehensive review of NPIs within the context of COVID-19) 2-6. The objective of most NPIs is to reduce contacts between individuals, with the ultimate goal of breaking transmission chains and, subsequently, controlling the spread and minimizing hospitalizations and deaths. However, certain NPIs may bring severe economic downturns 7-9 , dysfunctional supply chains 10-12 , and social backlash 13-15. Therefore, competent authorities should be properly informed of the benefits and costs of the possible interventions, especially if these are enforced. Given the negative impact that global lockdowns and quarantines inflict on societies, it is important to look for alternative strategies in successive COVID-19 waves. In this regard, a proposed alternative in the context of urban settlements is that of localized mobility restrictions, which is a more fine-grained restriction that acts only on the neighborhoods that are especially affected by an epidemic outbreak, instead of acting indiscriminately on the whole city. In Spain, the city of Madrid stands as a unique and paradigmatic example of pursuing the so-called perimeter lockdowns (PLs) at the level of Basic Health Zones (BHZ, subareas of the city defined by public health criteria). The main characteristic of these lockdowns was that they were implemented in highly integrated urban areas. As such, they restricted mobility in and out of the BHZ but allowed residents to go to work, attend academic activities, or for other essential purposes in the rest of the city, for which public transportation was available. Similarly, small businesses such as restaurants and shops were allowed to open, although at 50% maximum capacity. Hence, the lockdown was much more permeable than those implemented at larger scales, in which mobility is completely restricted between cities or regions. The case of Madrid reached the literature
Scientific Reports
From September 2020 to May 2021 Madrid region (Spain) followed a rather unique non-pharmaceutical... more From September 2020 to May 2021 Madrid region (Spain) followed a rather unique non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) by establishing a strategy of perimeter lockdowns (PLs) that banned travels to and from areas satisfying certain epidemiological risk criteria. PLs were pursued to avoid harsher restrictions, but some studies have found that the particular implementation by Madrid authorities was rather ineffective. Based on Madrid’s case, we devise a general, minimal framework to investigate the PLs effectiveness by using a data-driven metapopulation epidemiological model of a city, and explore under which circumstances the PLs could be a good NPI. The model is informed with real mobility data from Madrid to contextualize its results, but it can be generalized elsewhere. The lowest lockdown activation threshold $$\Theta $$ Θ considered (14-day cumulative incidence rate of 20 cases per every $$10^5$$ 10 5 inhabitants) shows a prevalence reduction $$>20\%$$ > 20 % with respect to...
Conjunto de valoraciones y reflexiones sobre el trabajo de formación realizado en el máster de pr... more Conjunto de valoraciones y reflexiones sobre el trabajo de formación realizado en el máster de profesorado de secundaria. Se analiza el desarrollo y aprendizaje en las diferentes asignaturas del curso, así como el periodo de prácticas. Se incluye en los anexos algunos trabajos relevantes realizados a lo largo del año
BMC Infectious Diseases
Background The COVID-19 outbreak has become the worst pandemic in at least a century. To fight th... more Background The COVID-19 outbreak has become the worst pandemic in at least a century. To fight this disease, a global effort led to the development of several vaccines at an unprecedented rate. There have been, however, several logistic issues with its deployment, from their production and transport, to the hesitancy of the population to be vaccinated. For different reasons, an important amount of individuals is reluctant to get the vaccine, something that hinders our ability to control and—eventually—eradicate the disease. Materials and methods Our aim is to explore the impact of vaccine hesitancy when highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern spread through a partially vaccinated population. To do so, we use age-stratified data from surveys on vaccination acceptance, together with age-contact matrices to inform an age-structured SIR model set in the US. Results Our results show that per every one percent decrease in vaccine hesitancy up to 45 deaths per million inhabitan...
Sexto Simposio Nacional de Predicción "Memorial Antonio Mestre", 2019
RESUMEN En este trabajo hemos tratado de estudiar el problema de la predicción de engelamiento en... more RESUMEN En este trabajo hemos tratado de estudiar el problema de la predicción de engelamiento en aviones. Para ello hemos tenido en cuenta las aeronotificaciones, disponibles desde 2015 aproximadamente. Estas observaciones son escasas y no sistemáticas, ya que son emitidas por los pilotos a ENAIRE por radio, y desde ENAIRE a AEMET a través de correo electrónico. A pesar de la relativa escasez de estas observaciones, son de gran valor , ya que son las únicas observaciones de engelamiento actualmente disponibles en AEMET. El trabajo comprende un exhaustivo estudio de caracterización de las situaciones en las que se produjo engelamiento, desde el punto de vista sinóptico y de situación de frentes. Se han usado también los mapas de baja cota elaborados en AEMET, que incluyen el diagnóstico y predicción de engelamiento. Asimismo se han evaluado campos numéricos procedentes del modelo del ECWMF relacionados con el engelamiento, como la temperatura, la humedad, y distintos hidrometeoros, ...
The COVID-19 outbreak has become the worst pandemic in at least a century. To fight this disease,... more The COVID-19 outbreak has become the worst pandemic in at least a century. To fight this disease, a global effort led to the development of several vaccines at an unprecedented rate. There have been, however, several logistic issues with its deployment, from their production and transport, to the hesitancy of the population to be vaccinated. For different reasons, an important amount of individuals is reluctant to get the vaccine, something that hinders our ability to control and - eventually - eradicate the disease. In this work, we analyze the impact that this hesitancy might have in a context in which a more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern spreads through a partially vaccinated population. We use age-stratified data from surveys on vaccination acceptance, together with age-contact matrices to inform an age-structured SIR model set in the US. Our results clearly show that higher vaccine hesitancy ratios led to larger outbreaks. A closer inspection of the stratified inf...
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Master's degree works by Alfonso de Miguel Arribas
Papers by Alfonso de Miguel Arribas