A conservatively optimistic saga of Indian markets
We estimate Nifty to reach 26,000 and Sensex ... more A conservatively optimistic saga of Indian markets
We estimate Nifty to reach 26,000 and Sensex 86,000 by FY19 in our best scenario which is based on a rather conservative forecast of improvement in fundamentals. Our best case projections for Nifty and Sensex imply compounded per annum returns of 28% and 27% respectively from current index levels. Scaling of the benchmark indices to new highs will be driven primarily by improvement in fundamentals and to a very limited extent by valuation re-rating. We forecast a 20% FY15-19 CAGR sales growth resulting in a 24% CAGR profits growth in our base case scenario and a more stellar 23% and 30% respectively for our best case. The two major pillars of improving fundamentals are recovering EBIT margins and Asset turnover which we believe should normalize to their historic levels. On the valuations front, we expect a re-rating of 9-26% of the various valuation metrics (10-12% in earnings based and nearly 20% in other multiples) in our best case (from10-July levels).
A conservatively optimistic saga of Indian markets
We estimate Nifty to reach 26,000 and Sensex ... more A conservatively optimistic saga of Indian markets
We estimate Nifty to reach 26,000 and Sensex 86,000 by FY19 in our best scenario which is based on a rather conservative forecast of improvement in fundamentals. Our best case projections for Nifty and Sensex imply compounded per annum returns of 28% and 27% respectively from current index levels. Scaling of the benchmark indices to new highs will be driven primarily by improvement in fundamentals and to a very limited extent by valuation re-rating. We forecast a 20% FY15-19 CAGR sales growth resulting in a 24% CAGR profits growth in our base case scenario and a more stellar 23% and 30% respectively for our best case. The two major pillars of improving fundamentals are recovering EBIT margins and Asset turnover which we believe should normalize to their historic levels. On the valuations front, we expect a re-rating of 9-26% of the various valuation metrics (10-12% in earnings based and nearly 20% in other multiples) in our best case (from10-July levels).
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Papers by Kshitij Gupta
We estimate Nifty to reach 26,000 and Sensex 86,000 by FY19 in our best scenario which is based on a rather conservative forecast of improvement in fundamentals. Our best case projections for Nifty and Sensex imply compounded per annum returns of 28% and 27% respectively from current
index levels. Scaling of the benchmark indices to new highs will be driven primarily by improvement in fundamentals and to a very limited extent by valuation re-rating. We forecast a 20% FY15-19 CAGR sales growth resulting in a 24% CAGR profits growth in our base case scenario and a more
stellar 23% and 30% respectively for our best case. The two major pillars of improving fundamentals are recovering EBIT margins and Asset turnover which we believe should normalize to their historic levels. On the valuations
front, we expect a re-rating of 9-26% of the various valuation metrics (10-12% in earnings based and nearly 20% in other multiples) in our best case (from10-July levels).
We estimate Nifty to reach 26,000 and Sensex 86,000 by FY19 in our best scenario which is based on a rather conservative forecast of improvement in fundamentals. Our best case projections for Nifty and Sensex imply compounded per annum returns of 28% and 27% respectively from current
index levels. Scaling of the benchmark indices to new highs will be driven primarily by improvement in fundamentals and to a very limited extent by valuation re-rating. We forecast a 20% FY15-19 CAGR sales growth resulting in a 24% CAGR profits growth in our base case scenario and a more
stellar 23% and 30% respectively for our best case. The two major pillars of improving fundamentals are recovering EBIT margins and Asset turnover which we believe should normalize to their historic levels. On the valuations
front, we expect a re-rating of 9-26% of the various valuation metrics (10-12% in earnings based and nearly 20% in other multiples) in our best case (from10-July levels).