
J. Kiema
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Papers by J. Kiema
of broader political and socio-economic realities. It is self-evident that diverse factors interact in space and time in complex dynamics to cause these water-level changes. However, the major question demanding sound answers is how these factors interact and by what magnitude they affect lake water
balance with time. This chapter uses Lake Victoria’s hydrological system to shed light on the extensive
and flexible modelling and simulation capabilities availed by modern computer models to understand
the bigger picture of water balance dynamics. The study used the 1950-2000 hydrological data and
riparian population growth to develop a dynamic simulation model for the lake’s water level. The intuitive
structure of the model provided clear insights into the combined influence of the main drivers of the lake’s water balance. The falling lake water levels appeared to be mainly due to dam outflows at the outlet and reduced rainfall over the lake. The ensuing conclusions stressed the need for checks against over-release of lake water for hydropower production and measures for sustainable land and water management in the entire basin.
of broader political and socio-economic realities. It is self-evident that diverse factors interact in space and time in complex dynamics to cause these water-level changes. However, the major question demanding sound answers is how these factors interact and by what magnitude they affect lake water
balance with time. This chapter uses Lake Victoria’s hydrological system to shed light on the extensive
and flexible modelling and simulation capabilities availed by modern computer models to understand
the bigger picture of water balance dynamics. The study used the 1950-2000 hydrological data and
riparian population growth to develop a dynamic simulation model for the lake’s water level. The intuitive
structure of the model provided clear insights into the combined influence of the main drivers of the lake’s water balance. The falling lake water levels appeared to be mainly due to dam outflows at the outlet and reduced rainfall over the lake. The ensuing conclusions stressed the need for checks against over-release of lake water for hydropower production and measures for sustainable land and water management in the entire basin.