Papers by Keamogetse Setlhare
Un ni iv ve er rs si it ty y o of f P Pr re et to or ri ia a e et td d-S Se et tl lh ha ar re e, ... more Un ni iv ve er rs si it ty y o of f P Pr re et to or ri ia a e et td d-S Se et tl lh ha ar re e, , K K ((2 20 00 07 7)) U Un ni iv ve er rs si it ty y o of f P Pr re et to or ri ia a e et td d-S Se et tl lh ha ar re e, , K K ((2 20 00 07 7))
Markov Decision Processes of a Two-Tier Supply Chain Inventory System
Inventory Optimization, 2022
Journal of AIDS and HIV Research, Feb 28, 2017
Botswana continues to have a high level of HIV prevalence, with about 17% of the population livin... more Botswana continues to have a high level of HIV prevalence, with about 17% of the population living with HIV AIDS (BAIS IV, 2013). Female sex workers are classified among the most at risk population group in the country. However, sub-national disaggregated data on new infections are not available. Hence, there is a need to focus great attention on other proxies of infection. The present study examines predictors of HIV testing among female sex workers (FSWs) in Botswana. The FSWs were recruited into the study using the time-location cluster sampling method (TLS) to collect data on prevalence and incidence of HIV and other STIs and their risk factors for HIV. The logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate crude odds ratios and identify the factors associated with having an HIV test among the FSWs. HIV prevalence among sex workers in Botswana was found to be 3 times higher than in the general population. Analysis of the results shows that the sex workers most likely to seek HIV testing were young women with no children. The odds of testing for HIV were almost 4 times more for FSWs who had first sex older as compared to the odds of testing for those who are 17 to 19 years old. Lack of or inconsistent condom use and currently having symptoms of STIs such as lower abdominal pain and genital ulcerations were also factors associated with HIV testing. Results further show that FSW hold little discrimination and stigma related attitudes towards PLWA. FSWs have little participation in the HIV prevention, treatment and care efforts currently accessed by the general population. It is recommended is that this framework should also be extended to FSW's and their clients in order to curb HIV and STIs.
Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, May 1, 2010
Selected data transformation techniques in time series modeling are evaluated using real-life dat... more Selected data transformation techniques in time series modeling are evaluated using real-life data on Botswana Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The transformation techniques considered were modified, although reasonable estimates of the original with no significant difference at 0.05 α = level were obtained: minimizing square of first difference (MFD) and minimizing square of second difference (MSD) provided the best transformation for GDP, whereas the Goldstein and Khan (GKM) method had a deficiency of losing data points. The Box-Jenkins procedure was adapted to fit suitable ARIMA (p, d, q) models to both the original and transformed series, with AIC and SIC as model order criteria. ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 0, 0) were identified, respectively, to the original and log of the transformed series. All estimates of the fitted stationary series were significant and provided a reliable forecast.
Markov Decision Processes of a Two-Tier Supply Chain Inventory System
Inventory Optimization, 2022
Africa has a youthful population and Botswana is no exception. As a result, Botswana suffers from... more Africa has a youthful population and Botswana is no exception. As a result, Botswana suffers from high youth unemployment problems. Hence, this paper seeks to empirically investigate how the socioeconomic characteristics of the youth of Gabane village in Botswana influence their transitions among the three labour market positions, being state of employed, unemployed and seeking for work, and being out of the labour market between 2016 and 2017 for similar periods. The extent of transitions is measured in terms of the Markov transition probabilities of the youth, followed by multiple regression analysis using the multinomial logit model. The data was collected using Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) from all households in Gabane Village. This dataset provides a great opportunity that allows investigation of the factors influencing the transitions of people in the cross section of the population and provide significant policy proposal for consideration. Findings from the study ...
Sustainable Development Goals, Botswana: A Case Study of Gabane Village in Kweneng District
A comparison of distribution test statistics for detecting outliers in dataset
Advances and Applications in Statistics
An Analysis of an Optimal Promotion Policy for a Manpower System Using a Queuing Approach
Management Dynamics : Journal of the Southern African Institute for Management Scientists, 2006
This study introduces a queuing approach to determine the optimal promotion policy and total opti... more This study introduces a queuing approach to determine the optimal promotion policy and total optimal cost of promotion in a manpower planning system. In particular, the model attempts to estimate the optimal cost of promotion where the organisation incurs the cost of keeping an employee waiting until a vacancy opens up. The variation effect of various parameters on the total optimal cost of the system of promotion is also assessed by making use of a numerical demonstration of the model.
American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences, 2017
According to UNICEF estimates, Nigeria loses some 2,300 children aged five years or younger every... more According to UNICEF estimates, Nigeria loses some 2,300 children aged five years or younger every year from mainly preventable causes. Many researchers have tried to shed light on the correlates of childhood mortality in Nigeria and targeted policies have led to declining rate of child mortality, but the rate of declining has been too slow for Nigeria to meet its MDG targets. Low coverage of interventions, a weak primary health care system, staffed by inadequate number of skilled health professionals, have been cited as some of the reasons behind the slow pace of reduction. Administratively, Nigeria is divided into regions, states within regions, and further sub-regional divisions that impact on how interventions can be rolled out to the population. Therefore, relevant researches on identifying the background of children who are most at risk need to take this multi-level structure into account. The aim of this paper is to build multi-level models that can help explain the variation ...
Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, 2010
Selected data transformation techniques in time series modeling are evaluated using real-life dat... more Selected data transformation techniques in time series modeling are evaluated using real-life data on Botswana Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The transformation techniques considered were modified, although reasonable estimates of the original with no significant difference at 0.05 α = level were obtained: minimizing square of first difference (MFD) and minimizing square of second difference (MSD) provided the best transformation for GDP, whereas the Goldstein and Khan (GKM) method had a deficiency of losing data points. The Box-Jenkins procedure was adapted to fit suitable ARIMA (p, d, q) models to both the original and transformed series, with AIC and SIC as model order criteria. ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 0, 0) were identified, respectively, to the original and log of the transformed series. All estimates of the fitted stationary series were significant and provided a reliable forecast.
Open Journal of Epidemiology, 2016
The gains in analyzing death from a multiple cause perspective have been recognized for a very lo... more The gains in analyzing death from a multiple cause perspective have been recognized for a very long time. Methods that have been adopted have sought to determine additional gains made by treating death as a multiple cause phenomenon as compared to analysis based on a single underlying cause. This paper shows how association rules mining methodology can be adapted to determine joint morbid causes with strong and interesting associations. Results show that some causes of death that do not appear among the leading causes show strong associations with other causes that would otherwise remain unknown without the use of association rules methodology. Overall, the study found that the leading joint pair of causes of death in South Africa was metabolic disorders and intestinal infectious diseases which accounted for 18.9 deaths per 1000 in 2008, followed by cerebrovascular and hypertensive diseases which accounted for 18.3 deaths per 1000.
Annals of Global Health, 2016
Un ni iv ve er rs si it ty y o of f P Pr re et to or ri ia a e et td d-S Se et tl lh ha ar re e, ... more Un ni iv ve er rs si it ty y o of f P Pr re et to or ri ia a e et td d-S Se et tl lh ha ar re e, , K K ((2 20 00 07 7)) U Un ni iv ve er rs si it ty y o of f P Pr re et to or ri ia a e et td d-S Se et tl lh ha ar re e, , K K ((2 20 00 07 7))
Open Access Medical Statistics, 2012
Background: Predictive models for mortality due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease as ... more Background: Predictive models for mortality due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease as a result of opportunistic infections, such as tuberculosis and pneumonia, have been developed. Methods: The data are taken from the Statistics South Africa multiple causes of death data for 2006 and 2007, which is available for public use. The dataset was compiled from death notifications, and contains up to five causes of death as well as some demographic characteristics of the deceased. The logistic regression modeling framework was used to model the presence or absence of HIV disease, given the predictive variables. Results: The higher the number of causes listed, the higher the likelihood that HIV would be a cause, with the percentage of notifications of HIV listed increasing from under 2% when only one cause is listed to almost 15% when 4-5 causes are listed. When the logit model was fitted to the multiple cause of death model, it was found that individual demographics were good predictors of the likelihood that the death notification would have HIV as one of the causes of death. Although there are highly significant differences in the likelihood that people of different demographics would die from HIV, the predictive power of these demographic factors on their own is very low, especially when there is only a single cause of death mentioned. With the full multiple cause of death model, two-way interactions between tuberculosis, pneumonia, and other opportunistic infections were highly significant, and their inclusion lead to significant improvements in the predictive power of the model.
Non-Markovian model of an intermittently busy manpower system
The 40th International Conference on Computers & Indutrial Engineering, 2010
ABSTRACT A non-Markovian model of an intermittently busy manpower system is studied in this paper... more ABSTRACT A non-Markovian model of an intermittently busy manpower system is studied in this paper. Stationary rate of the crisis of an organization is studied with the use of correlated alternating renewal process. A numerical example illustrated the results obtained.
Estimation of Household Waste Generated in Gaborone City Council
The Journal of Solid Waste Technology and Management, 2012
ABSTRACT The geometric rate at which wastes are being generated in Gaborone is alarming. This cou... more ABSTRACT The geometric rate at which wastes are being generated in Gaborone is alarming. This could be catastrophic if a well monitored waste management is not in place. To this end, dy-namic system estimation (DSE) will provide the necessary scientific impetus for an effective waste management system. Specifically therefore, this study is aimed at providing an insight into waste generation, monitoring and control. The study objectives are to estimate the volume of solid waste generated per household per week in Gaborone City Council and compare the solid waste rates of the communities in Gaborone City Council.We estimated that the overall average weekly household waste generated is around 7.25kg per household in the studied enumeration areas; this results into 8.34kg per household per week in Gaborone City Council. The level of waste generated weekly is more dependent on the number of people living within the household.
Journal of Tuberculosis Research, 2014
The multiple cause of death (MCOD) analysis is used to account for the full contribution of TB as... more The multiple cause of death (MCOD) analysis is used to account for the full contribution of TB as a cause of death to South African mortality in 2008 that were coded using ICD10. Following a review of MCOD methods, a sufficient set of variables for use in MCOD and a new method of quantifying the severity of each cause of death are proposed. The results show that a total of 86,818 (14.3% of all deaths) were TB related, and within all deaths due to natural underlying causes, 86,373 (16.1%) were TB related. Furthermore, 42,581 (7.9%) were due to TB only, 6.0% had TB as an underlying cause along with other contributory causes and 2.0% had TB as a contributory cause. TB was mentioned as the underlying cause of death in 74,863 certificates or 13.9% of deaths due to natural underlying causes. Further analysis using multinomial baseline logit models, reveals that the relative odds of death in any demographic group compared with death in the baseline categories depend on the severity level of TB considered. It is proposed that the severity measure should be adopted when studying the contribution of all main causes of death to total mortality.
American Journal of Applied Sciences, Aug 1, 2017
This paper is focused on the analysis of categorical data in a 2 × c × K contingency table. The t... more This paper is focused on the analysis of categorical data in a 2 × c × K contingency table. The theoretical frame work of a 2 × c design is extended to 2 × c × K with provision for testing interactions among subsets of either lower or upper columns of the designated table. The developed chi square tests for the total interactions as well as for the partitions are shown to be significant and the degrees of freedom additive.
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Papers by Keamogetse Setlhare