Papers by Joost van Rosmalen
Cancer, 2014
The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) demonstrated that low-dose computed tomography screening... more The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) demonstrated that low-dose computed tomography screening is an effective way of reducing lung cancer (LC) mortality. However, optimal screening strategies have not been determined to date and it is uncertain whether lighter smokers than those examined in the NLST may also benefit from screening. To address these questions, it is necessary to first develop LC natural history models that can reproduce NLST outcomes and simulate screening programs at the population level. Five independent LC screening models were developed using common inputs and calibration targets derived from the NLST and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO). Imputation of missing information regarding smoking, histology, and stage of disease for a small percentage of individuals and diagnosed LCs in both trials was performed. Models were calibrated to LC incidence, mortality, or both outcomes simultaneously. Initially, all models were cali...
Journal of Medical Screening, 2015
PURPOSE The main challenge in computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer is the high prev... more PURPOSE The main challenge in computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer is the high prevalence of pulmonary nodules and the relatively low incidence of lung cancer. Thresholds for nodule size and growth rate, which determine which nodules require additional diagnostic measures, should be based on the lung cancer probability of the individual. METHOD AND MATERIALS The diameter, volume and volume-doubling time (VDT) of 9,681 non-calcified nodules detected in 7,135 participants in the Dutch-Belgian lung cancer screening trial were used to quantify their lung cancer probability. Complete coverage on all lung cancer diagnoses was obtained by linkages with the national cancer registry, for a follow-up of eight years. The probabilities were used to propose and evaluate optimized thresholds for CT-detected nodules. RESULTS Lung cancer probability was low in subjects with a nodule volume <100mm³ (≤0.7%) or maximum transverse diameter <5mm (≤0.5%). Moreover, probability in thes...
Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, Jan 28, 2014
Background. Human papillomavirus (HPV) self-sampling might be a promising tool to increase effect... more Background. Human papillomavirus (HPV) self-sampling might be a promising tool to increase effectiveness of primary HPV screening programs when offered to non-attendees. However, effectiveness could decrease if regular attendees 'switch' to self-sampling, since self-sampling test characteristics may be inferior. We examined under which conditions the harms would outweigh the benefits. Methods. The MISCAN-cervix model was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and costs of offering HPV self-sampling to non-attendees. We varied the relative CIN2+ sensitivity and specificity (self-sampling versus regular sampling), extra attendance, risk of extra attendees, and the switching percentage. Results. Without switching, offering self-sampling is (cost-)effective under every studied condition. If the attendance due to self-sampling increases by ≥6 percentage points, higher primary background risk women (unscreened women who will never attend regular screening) att...
Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN, Jan 5, 2014
Many children receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation develop AKI. If AKI leads to permanen... more Many children receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation develop AKI. If AKI leads to permanent nephron loss, it may increase the risk of developing CKD. The prevalence of CKD and hypertension and its predictive factors during long-term follow-up of children and adolescents previously treated with neonatal extracorporeal membrane oxygenation were determined. Between November of 2010 and February of 2014, neonatal survivors of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation who visited the prospective follow-up program at 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, and 18 years of age were screened for CKD and hypertension (BP≥95th percentile of reference values). CKD was suspected in children with either an eGFR<90 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) or proteinuria (urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio >0.50 for children ages ≤24 months and >0.20 at >24 months). The RIFLE classification (risk, injury, or failure as 150%, 200%, or 300% of serum creatinine reference values) was used to define AKI during extracorporeal membra...
Pediatrics, 2014
To assess longitudinally children's motor performance 5 to 12 years after neonatal extracorpo... more To assess longitudinally children's motor performance 5 to 12 years after neonatal extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and to evaluate associations between clinical characteristics and motor performance. Two hundred fifty-four neonatal ECMO survivors in the Netherlands were tested with the Movement Assessment Battery for Children at 5, 8, and/or 12 years. Percentile scores were transformed to z scores for longitudinal evaluation (norm population mean = 0 and SD = 1). Primary diagnoses: meconium aspiration syndrome (n = 137), congenital diaphragmatic hernia (n = 49), persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (n = 36), other diagnoses (n = 32). Four hundred fifty-six tests were analyzed. At 5, 8, and 12 years motor performance was normal in 73.7, 74.8, and 40.5%, respectively (vs 85% expected based on reference values; P < .001 at all ages). In longitudinal analyses mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) z scores were -0.42 (-0.55 to -0.28), -0.25 (-0.40 to -0.10) an...
BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2012
To compare the risk of cervical cancer in women with histologically confirmed cervical intraepith... more To compare the risk of cervical cancer in women with histologically confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia who returned to routine screening after having completed post-treatment follow-up with consecutive normal smear test results with women with a normal primary smear test result. Population based cohort study using data from a nationwide pathology register. The Netherlands, 1994 to 2006. 38,956 women with histologically confirmed intraepithelial neoplasia grades 1 to 3 with completed follow-up after treatment. Routine post-treatment follow-up of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, recommending smear tests at six, 12, and 24 months. Incidence of cervical cancer in the period from completed follow-up with negative test results after cervical intraepithelial neoplasia to the next primary test. 10-year hazard ratios were compared with periods after normal results for the primary smear test, adjusted for year in follow-up. 20 cervical cancers were diagnosed during 56,956 woman y...
Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention, 2014
PloS one, 2015
Knowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunit... more Knowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunity, is crucial in estimating the (cost-) effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening strategies, because naturally acquired immunity after clearing an infection may already protect part of the risk population against new HPV infections. We used STDSIM, an established stochastic microsimulation model, quantified to the Netherlands. We explored different assumptions regarding the natural history of HPV-16 and HPV-18, and estimated the transmission probabilities and durations of acquired immunity necessary to reproduce age-specific prevalence. A model without acquired immunity cannot reproduce the age-specific patterns of HPV. Also, it is necessary to assume a high degree of individual variation in the duration of infection and acquired immunity. According to the model estimates, on average 20% of women are immune for HPV-16 and 15% for HPV-18. After an HPV-16 infection, 5...
The Lancet. Oncology, 2014
The main challenge in CT screening for lung cancer is the high prevalence of pulmonary nodules an... more The main challenge in CT screening for lung cancer is the high prevalence of pulmonary nodules and the relatively low incidence of lung cancer. Management protocols use thresholds for nodule size and growth rate to determine which nodules require additional diagnostic procedures, but these should be based on individuals' probabilities of developing lung cancer. In this prespecified analysis, using data from the NELSON CT screening trial, we aimed to quantify how nodule diameter, volume, and volume doubling time affect the probability of developing lung cancer within 2 years of a CT scan, and to propose and evaluate thresholds for management protocols. Eligible participants in the NELSON trial were those aged 50-75 years, who have smoked 15 cigarettes or more per day for more than 25 years, or ten cigarettes or more for more than 30 years and were still smoking, or had stopped smoking less than 10 years ago. Participants were randomly assigned to low-dose CT screening at increasi...
Medical Decision Making, 2013
International Journal of Cancer, 2014
European Journal of Cancer, 2011
Medical Decision Making, 2014
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Papers by Joost van Rosmalen