This paper deals with the social implications of ethanol expansion in Brazil. The evolution of th... more This paper deals with the social implications of ethanol expansion in Brazil. The evolution of the labor market in sugar cane production in the country is analyzed together with its regional patterns of expansion, to illustrate how the changes in the recent expansion are modifying the traditional pattern of labor demand in the activity. At the same time, the distributional effects of sugar cane expansion, as well as it´s impacts on food security and land use change was approached with the aid of general equilibrium simulation models. The analysis shows that both the average earnings and the average years of schooling in sugar cane production are actually higher than in general agriculture in Brazil, and that this is linked to the fast increase in production in Southeast and Center-west. Sugar cane production in those regions is more capital intensive and has much higher productivity than in other traditional regions in Northeast Brazil. The study concludes that the expansion in suga...
Paper prepared for the meeting “Impulsos para una recuperación sostenida de las economias del esp... more Paper prepared for the meeting “Impulsos para una recuperación sostenida de las economias del espacio iberoamericano”.
of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly,... more of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors.
Brazil has traditionally been one of the most important sugarcane and ethanol producers. Since 19... more Brazil has traditionally been one of the most important sugarcane and ethanol producers. Since 1975, when the National Ethanol Program (Programa Nacional do Alcool – Proalcool) was created, the country has produced fuel ethanol on a large scale. The increase in sugar exports in the nineties, which competed with inputs to
Brazil exhibits a high degree of income concentration – that has persisted through the dramatic e... more Brazil exhibits a high degree of income concentration – that has persisted through the dramatic economic and political changes of the last 20 years. The resilience of this income distribution problem has attracted the attention of researchers both inside and outside Brazil. Although increased world trade offers many opportunities for the Brazilian economy to grow,
In this paper we analyze the economic and environmental effects of the new Brazilian Forest Code,... more In this paper we analyze the economic and environmental effects of the new Brazilian Forest Code, when compared to the previous version. A general equilibrium model of Brazil, tailored for land use change and emissions analysis is used. It´s a dynamic, inter-regional and “bottom-up” model, with a land use and emissions module. Two versions of the Forest Code are analyzed: the original (old) forest code, and the new version approved recently, and still awaiting implementation. The scenarios are based on satellite imagery generated in the AgLue Project. Results point to a significant reduction in greenhouse gases emissions in both versions of the forest code, although higher in the previous version. The economic costs associated are found not to be very high, although different across different states.
Brasil ha sido tradicionalmente uno de los productores mas importantes de cana de azucar y etanol... more Brasil ha sido tradicionalmente uno de los productores mas importantes de cana de azucar y etanol. Desde 1975, cuando fue creado el Programa Nacional de Etanol (Programa Nacional do Alcool - Proalcool);, el pais ha producido combustible de etanol a gran escala. El incremento en las exportaciones de azucar en los noventa, que competian con los insumos para la produccion de etanol, genero racionamiento en el mercado brasileno de etanol y una reduccion en el consumo que se prolongaron hasta 2003. Desde entonces el escenario para el etanol ha vuelto a cambiar sustancialmente. El desarrollo de motores flexibles (que pueden utilizar tanto etanol como gasolina); y el incremento en el precio del petroleo le confirieron al etanol un nuevo estatus como combustible en Brasil, permitiendo a los consumidores elegir entre ambos, en funcion de los precios relativos. De acuerdo a un estudio del Ministerio de Energia y Mineria (EPE, 2008a);, en 2008 el etanol ya era economicamente viable en 19 de 26...
The Centre of Policy Studies (COPS) is a research centre at Monash University devoted to economy-... more The Centre of Policy Studies (COPS) is a research centre at Monash University devoted to economy-wide modelling of economic policy issues.
Missão do Ipea Produzir, articular e disseminar conhecimento para aperfeiçoar as políticas públic... more Missão do Ipea Produzir, articular e disseminar conhecimento para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e contribuir para o planejamento do desenvolvimento brasileiro.
* Os autores agradecem o apoio de Gabriel Gontijo de Sant'Anna, isentando-o dos possíveis erros r... more * Os autores agradecem o apoio de Gabriel Gontijo de Sant'Anna, isentando-o dos possíveis erros remanescentes.
El presente artículo contribuye a la controversia sobre los modelos de desarrollo en la región Am... more El presente artículo contribuye a la controversia sobre los modelos de desarrollo en la región Amazónica, aprovechando los descubrimientos de los modelos macroeconómicos de alta resolución. Una Matriz de Contabilidad Social para el bosque amazónico y un Modelo Computable de Equilibrio General revelan nuevos hechos y perspectivas para la formulación de políticas. Muchas más personas de lo que se pensaba se ganan la vida en base a los bosques de la Amazonia. Más de 525.000 trabajadores (de trabajo a tiempo completo) encontraron empleo directo en la cosecha y la fabricación de productos forestales en 2005 y 115.000 en la pesca de río. Los cultivos agrícolas y la cría de ganado tienen mayor tasa de empleo en la Amazonia que los bosques, pero los tres sectores ofrecen ingresos muy bajos. Estas actividades tampoco son mejores que la forestal para estimular el crecimiento económico. Un ejemplo de esto es que el coste de una política de deforestación cero para alcanzar las metas brasileñas ...
Resumo Este trabalho analisa a competitividade da produção de algodão e soja no Estado de Mato Gr... more Resumo Este trabalho analisa a competitividade da produção de algodão e soja no Estado de Mato Grosso, através do custo de produção agrícola para a safra 2004/05. Os dados foram coletados a campo, com a metodologia de painel. As regiões analisadas foram: Rondonópolis (algodão e soja), Lucas do Rio Verde (algodão), Sorriso (soja) e Campo Novo do Parecis (algodão e soja). Como corolário, as duas culturas apresentaram margens negativas em todas as regiões pesquisadas. Entretanto, a margem negativa da cultura da soja foi menor, comparativamente ao algodão, apontando para sua competitividade, além do menor risco de produção. No caso de CNP e Norte de Mato Grosso (LRV e SOR), o algodão gerou um prejuízo três vezes mais que a soja. Em RNP, a perda por hectare foi 5,7 vezes mais no algodão em relação à soja. As regiões de CNP e SOR apontaram maior competitividade em relação à RNP. Em termos gerais, os custos variáveis são os maiores gargalos em ambas as culturas, justificada pela maior utilização de fertilizantes e defensivos químicos.
Recent internal migration flows in Brazil differ from historical patterns observed since the seve... more Recent internal migration flows in Brazil differ from historical patterns observed since the seventies. In the past internal migration typically flowed from states in Northeast Brazil and Minas Gerais towards the richer states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. According to Brito and Carvalho (2006) between 1960 and 1990 about 8.1 million people left the Northeast and 3.8 million left Minas Gerais. This was the "normal" internal migration pattern in Brazil until the eighties, when, according to Brito and Carvalho (2006), a succession of economic crises and expansion of the agricultural frontiers changed the picture. Actually, during the nineties emigration from the Northeast region slowed down considerably; the region became a net recipient of population in recent years. At the same time, the Southeast states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the main destination for migrants until the end of the eighties, have recently lost population. Some of the migrants leaving the Southeast return to the Northeast, but many go to the dynamic new agricultural Center-west regions. 2 Objective The objective of this paper is to assess the potential impacts on internal migration in Brazil of different climate change scenarios that impact on agriculture. Of particular interest in the analysis will be the effects on labor demand, both in the agricultural sector and in the whole economy, and its role in the interregional patterns of population flows. The analysis will be conducted with the aid of a dynamic general equilibrium model of Brazil, the TERM-MIG model, to be described below.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without ... more No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment and the ILO. For rights of reproduction or translation, enquiries and application should be made to Carnegie Endowment for International Peace directly, or through the ILO. The Carnegie Endowment normally does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views presented here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment, its staff, or its trustees. The designations employed in this study do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product, or process is not a sign of disapproval.
In response to scepticism over the supposed trickle-down effects of Latin American trade reforms,... more In response to scepticism over the supposed trickle-down effects of Latin American trade reforms, the region's policymakers are increasingly focusing attention on the distributive impacts of the reform measures and the channels through which they are transmitted. For ...
In response to scepticism over the supposed trickle-down effects of Latin American trade reforms,... more In response to scepticism over the supposed trickle-down effects of Latin American trade reforms, the region's policymakers are increasingly focusing attention on the distributive impacts of the reform measures and the channels through which they are transmitted. For ...
The GTAP model is designed for analysis related to international trade. As such, the model compri... more The GTAP model is designed for analysis related to international trade. As such, the model comprises a detailed specification of trade between countries, as well as a full set of accounts for the domestic economies. For many situations or types of policy analysis, however, more detailed modeling of specific national economies may be required. This is the case, for example, of questions demanding interregional analysis inside the national economies. Among the many possible interesting applications of the GTAP model, then, is its use in conjunction to national models. The interest in this kind of application is growing in recent years, and encompasses a wide range of theoretical as well as practical questions. This paper provides some hints and considerations on linking the GTAP model to national, more detailed models, as well as a practical implementation linking GTAP to a interregional version of ORANIGFR, calibrated with Brazilian data. In what follows, we first set the main difficulties regarding that linkage. Then the general differences between a global model like GTAP and a single country model are analyzed, in order to highlight the more convenient ways of transmitting the shocks. And finally, an example is provided of linking GTAP to a national model, and the results of this new methodology are compared to previous approaches. 2 The nature of the problem Consider the case of a large country involved in an economic trade block creation, and in which the economic activity is unequally spread across the national territory. In this case, a relevant problem could be not just whether the integration would affect the country positively or not, but also how would regions inside the
This paper deals with the social implications of ethanol expansion in Brazil. The evolution of th... more This paper deals with the social implications of ethanol expansion in Brazil. The evolution of the labor market in sugar cane production in the country is analyzed together with its regional patterns of expansion, to illustrate how the changes in the recent expansion are modifying the traditional pattern of labor demand in the activity. At the same time, the distributional effects of sugar cane expansion, as well as it´s impacts on food security and land use change was approached with the aid of general equilibrium simulation models. The analysis shows that both the average earnings and the average years of schooling in sugar cane production are actually higher than in general agriculture in Brazil, and that this is linked to the fast increase in production in Southeast and Center-west. Sugar cane production in those regions is more capital intensive and has much higher productivity than in other traditional regions in Northeast Brazil. The study concludes that the expansion in suga...
Paper prepared for the meeting “Impulsos para una recuperación sostenida de las economias del esp... more Paper prepared for the meeting “Impulsos para una recuperación sostenida de las economias del espacio iberoamericano”.
of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly,... more of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors.
Brazil has traditionally been one of the most important sugarcane and ethanol producers. Since 19... more Brazil has traditionally been one of the most important sugarcane and ethanol producers. Since 1975, when the National Ethanol Program (Programa Nacional do Alcool – Proalcool) was created, the country has produced fuel ethanol on a large scale. The increase in sugar exports in the nineties, which competed with inputs to
Brazil exhibits a high degree of income concentration – that has persisted through the dramatic e... more Brazil exhibits a high degree of income concentration – that has persisted through the dramatic economic and political changes of the last 20 years. The resilience of this income distribution problem has attracted the attention of researchers both inside and outside Brazil. Although increased world trade offers many opportunities for the Brazilian economy to grow,
In this paper we analyze the economic and environmental effects of the new Brazilian Forest Code,... more In this paper we analyze the economic and environmental effects of the new Brazilian Forest Code, when compared to the previous version. A general equilibrium model of Brazil, tailored for land use change and emissions analysis is used. It´s a dynamic, inter-regional and “bottom-up” model, with a land use and emissions module. Two versions of the Forest Code are analyzed: the original (old) forest code, and the new version approved recently, and still awaiting implementation. The scenarios are based on satellite imagery generated in the AgLue Project. Results point to a significant reduction in greenhouse gases emissions in both versions of the forest code, although higher in the previous version. The economic costs associated are found not to be very high, although different across different states.
Brasil ha sido tradicionalmente uno de los productores mas importantes de cana de azucar y etanol... more Brasil ha sido tradicionalmente uno de los productores mas importantes de cana de azucar y etanol. Desde 1975, cuando fue creado el Programa Nacional de Etanol (Programa Nacional do Alcool - Proalcool);, el pais ha producido combustible de etanol a gran escala. El incremento en las exportaciones de azucar en los noventa, que competian con los insumos para la produccion de etanol, genero racionamiento en el mercado brasileno de etanol y una reduccion en el consumo que se prolongaron hasta 2003. Desde entonces el escenario para el etanol ha vuelto a cambiar sustancialmente. El desarrollo de motores flexibles (que pueden utilizar tanto etanol como gasolina); y el incremento en el precio del petroleo le confirieron al etanol un nuevo estatus como combustible en Brasil, permitiendo a los consumidores elegir entre ambos, en funcion de los precios relativos. De acuerdo a un estudio del Ministerio de Energia y Mineria (EPE, 2008a);, en 2008 el etanol ya era economicamente viable en 19 de 26...
The Centre of Policy Studies (COPS) is a research centre at Monash University devoted to economy-... more The Centre of Policy Studies (COPS) is a research centre at Monash University devoted to economy-wide modelling of economic policy issues.
Missão do Ipea Produzir, articular e disseminar conhecimento para aperfeiçoar as políticas públic... more Missão do Ipea Produzir, articular e disseminar conhecimento para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e contribuir para o planejamento do desenvolvimento brasileiro.
* Os autores agradecem o apoio de Gabriel Gontijo de Sant'Anna, isentando-o dos possíveis erros r... more * Os autores agradecem o apoio de Gabriel Gontijo de Sant'Anna, isentando-o dos possíveis erros remanescentes.
El presente artículo contribuye a la controversia sobre los modelos de desarrollo en la región Am... more El presente artículo contribuye a la controversia sobre los modelos de desarrollo en la región Amazónica, aprovechando los descubrimientos de los modelos macroeconómicos de alta resolución. Una Matriz de Contabilidad Social para el bosque amazónico y un Modelo Computable de Equilibrio General revelan nuevos hechos y perspectivas para la formulación de políticas. Muchas más personas de lo que se pensaba se ganan la vida en base a los bosques de la Amazonia. Más de 525.000 trabajadores (de trabajo a tiempo completo) encontraron empleo directo en la cosecha y la fabricación de productos forestales en 2005 y 115.000 en la pesca de río. Los cultivos agrícolas y la cría de ganado tienen mayor tasa de empleo en la Amazonia que los bosques, pero los tres sectores ofrecen ingresos muy bajos. Estas actividades tampoco son mejores que la forestal para estimular el crecimiento económico. Un ejemplo de esto es que el coste de una política de deforestación cero para alcanzar las metas brasileñas ...
Resumo Este trabalho analisa a competitividade da produção de algodão e soja no Estado de Mato Gr... more Resumo Este trabalho analisa a competitividade da produção de algodão e soja no Estado de Mato Grosso, através do custo de produção agrícola para a safra 2004/05. Os dados foram coletados a campo, com a metodologia de painel. As regiões analisadas foram: Rondonópolis (algodão e soja), Lucas do Rio Verde (algodão), Sorriso (soja) e Campo Novo do Parecis (algodão e soja). Como corolário, as duas culturas apresentaram margens negativas em todas as regiões pesquisadas. Entretanto, a margem negativa da cultura da soja foi menor, comparativamente ao algodão, apontando para sua competitividade, além do menor risco de produção. No caso de CNP e Norte de Mato Grosso (LRV e SOR), o algodão gerou um prejuízo três vezes mais que a soja. Em RNP, a perda por hectare foi 5,7 vezes mais no algodão em relação à soja. As regiões de CNP e SOR apontaram maior competitividade em relação à RNP. Em termos gerais, os custos variáveis são os maiores gargalos em ambas as culturas, justificada pela maior utilização de fertilizantes e defensivos químicos.
Recent internal migration flows in Brazil differ from historical patterns observed since the seve... more Recent internal migration flows in Brazil differ from historical patterns observed since the seventies. In the past internal migration typically flowed from states in Northeast Brazil and Minas Gerais towards the richer states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. According to Brito and Carvalho (2006) between 1960 and 1990 about 8.1 million people left the Northeast and 3.8 million left Minas Gerais. This was the "normal" internal migration pattern in Brazil until the eighties, when, according to Brito and Carvalho (2006), a succession of economic crises and expansion of the agricultural frontiers changed the picture. Actually, during the nineties emigration from the Northeast region slowed down considerably; the region became a net recipient of population in recent years. At the same time, the Southeast states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the main destination for migrants until the end of the eighties, have recently lost population. Some of the migrants leaving the Southeast return to the Northeast, but many go to the dynamic new agricultural Center-west regions. 2 Objective The objective of this paper is to assess the potential impacts on internal migration in Brazil of different climate change scenarios that impact on agriculture. Of particular interest in the analysis will be the effects on labor demand, both in the agricultural sector and in the whole economy, and its role in the interregional patterns of population flows. The analysis will be conducted with the aid of a dynamic general equilibrium model of Brazil, the TERM-MIG model, to be described below.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without ... more No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment and the ILO. For rights of reproduction or translation, enquiries and application should be made to Carnegie Endowment for International Peace directly, or through the ILO. The Carnegie Endowment normally does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views presented here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment, its staff, or its trustees. The designations employed in this study do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product, or process is not a sign of disapproval.
In response to scepticism over the supposed trickle-down effects of Latin American trade reforms,... more In response to scepticism over the supposed trickle-down effects of Latin American trade reforms, the region's policymakers are increasingly focusing attention on the distributive impacts of the reform measures and the channels through which they are transmitted. For ...
In response to scepticism over the supposed trickle-down effects of Latin American trade reforms,... more In response to scepticism over the supposed trickle-down effects of Latin American trade reforms, the region's policymakers are increasingly focusing attention on the distributive impacts of the reform measures and the channels through which they are transmitted. For ...
The GTAP model is designed for analysis related to international trade. As such, the model compri... more The GTAP model is designed for analysis related to international trade. As such, the model comprises a detailed specification of trade between countries, as well as a full set of accounts for the domestic economies. For many situations or types of policy analysis, however, more detailed modeling of specific national economies may be required. This is the case, for example, of questions demanding interregional analysis inside the national economies. Among the many possible interesting applications of the GTAP model, then, is its use in conjunction to national models. The interest in this kind of application is growing in recent years, and encompasses a wide range of theoretical as well as practical questions. This paper provides some hints and considerations on linking the GTAP model to national, more detailed models, as well as a practical implementation linking GTAP to a interregional version of ORANIGFR, calibrated with Brazilian data. In what follows, we first set the main difficulties regarding that linkage. Then the general differences between a global model like GTAP and a single country model are analyzed, in order to highlight the more convenient ways of transmitting the shocks. And finally, an example is provided of linking GTAP to a national model, and the results of this new methodology are compared to previous approaches. 2 The nature of the problem Consider the case of a large country involved in an economic trade block creation, and in which the economic activity is unequally spread across the national territory. In this case, a relevant problem could be not just whether the integration would affect the country positively or not, but also how would regions inside the
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