Tropical forest ecosystems represent a common heritage with livelihood portfolios shared by a gre... more Tropical forest ecosystems represent a common heritage with livelihood portfolios shared by a great majority of people especially in developing countries but are now threatened by climate change. In spite of their contribution to poverty alleviation and food security, and also for climate change responses (adaptation and mitigation especially through the market-incentive schemes (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol) forests are still hardly integrated into national planning processes aimed at addressing any of these national development challenges. This is evident in some of the national documents of some developing countries such as the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) to the World Bank, and the First National Communication to UNFCCC. This paper presents some preliminary outcomes of the Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) project of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) whose overall mission is to underscore the importance of tropical forests for livelihood adaptation to climate change and mainstreaming adaptation into national development processes. The paper also highlights TroFCCA's approach in engaging stakeholders from the onset in setting the agenda with the identification and prioritization of forest-based sectors as the entry point in the process of assessing the vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for these selected development sectors. This is a highly crucial area with great policy implications.
The focus of this chapter is on climate-change impacts on the environment, the structure and func... more The focus of this chapter is on climate-change impacts on the environment, the structure and functioning of forests, on their biodiversity, and on the services and goods provided by forests in order to identify key vulnerabilities. Based on the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007d), we first introduce four clusters (unavoidable, stable, growth, and fast growth) of climate change scenarios commonly used to quantitatively assess climate change impacts (sub-chapter 3.2). At the global scale (sub-chapter 3.3) as well as in the four domains (boreal -sub-chapter 3.4; temperate -3.5; subtropical -3.6; tropical -3.7), our CCIAV-assessment (see glossary) for forests shows that many forests can adapt to a moderate climate change if water is sufficiently available, notably in currently temperature limited areas (unavoidable, lower end stable). In some temperate or boreal regions, certain forests can even increase their primary productivity in a moderate climate change. However, some of these benefits are easily offset as climate warms and the adaptive capacity of currently water limited, fire or insect prone forests is frequently exceeded already by a limited climate change (unavoidable, stable). Many other forests become also vulnerable to an unmitigated climate change (growth, fast growth) as their adaptive capacity is exceeded. Forests currently sequester significant amounts of carbon; a key vulnerability consists in the loss of this service, and forests may even turn into a net source. Among land ecosystems, forests currently house the largest fraction of biodiversity; unmitigated climate change threatens to put significant parts of it at risk. The boreal domain, being especially sensitive, serves as a model case and is treated in particular depth. Finally, conclusions are drawn to summarize all findings on the global as well as regional scales (sub-chapter 3.8).
This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to... more This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to ensure that the ecosystem services provided by forests are maintained under future climates. The services are divided into broad areas within which managers can identify specific management goals for individual forests or landscapes. Adaptation options exist for the major forest regions of the world but the scientific basis for these adaptation options and their potential effectiveness varies across regions. Because of the great variation in local conditions, no recommendations can be made that are applicable to an entire domain. The choice of management option will depend on the likely changes occurring in the forest, the management objectives of that forest, its past management history and a range of other factors. Local managers must have sufficient flexibility to choose the most appropriate suite of management options for their conditions. The current failure to implement fully the multi-faceted components of sustainable forest management is likely to limit the ability of forest management to adapt to climate change. Forest managers will need to plan at multiple spatial and temporal scales and will need to adopt adaptive collaborative management as their primary form of management. Careful monitoring and evaluation will be required, with a change in focus from outputs to outcomes.
Tropical forest ecosystems represent a common heritage with livelihood portfolios shared by a gre... more Tropical forest ecosystems represent a common heritage with livelihood portfolios shared by a great majority of people especially in developing countries but are now threatened by climate change. In spite of their contribution to poverty alleviation and food security, and also for climate change responses (adaptation and mitigation especially through the market-incentive schemes (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol) forests are still hardly integrated into national planning processes aimed at addressing any of these national development challenges. This is evident in some of the national documents of some developing countries such as the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) to the World Bank, and the First National Communication to UNFCCC. This paper presents some preliminary outcomes of the Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) project of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) whose overall mission is to underscore the importance of tropical forests for livelihood adaptation to climate change and mainstreaming adaptation into national development processes. The paper also highlights TroFCCA's approach in engaging stakeholders from the onset in setting the agenda with the identification and prioritization of forest-based sectors as the entry point in the process of assessing the vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for these selected development sectors. This is a highly crucial area with great policy implications.
The focus of this chapter is on climate-change impacts on the environment, the structure and func... more The focus of this chapter is on climate-change impacts on the environment, the structure and functioning of forests, on their biodiversity, and on the services and goods provided by forests in order to identify key vulnerabilities. Based on the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007d), we first introduce four clusters (unavoidable, stable, growth, and fast growth) of climate change scenarios commonly used to quantitatively assess climate change impacts (sub-chapter 3.2). At the global scale (sub-chapter 3.3) as well as in the four domains (boreal -sub-chapter 3.4; temperate -3.5; subtropical -3.6; tropical -3.7), our CCIAV-assessment (see glossary) for forests shows that many forests can adapt to a moderate climate change if water is sufficiently available, notably in currently temperature limited areas (unavoidable, lower end stable). In some temperate or boreal regions, certain forests can even increase their primary productivity in a moderate climate change. However, some of these benefits are easily offset as climate warms and the adaptive capacity of currently water limited, fire or insect prone forests is frequently exceeded already by a limited climate change (unavoidable, stable). Many other forests become also vulnerable to an unmitigated climate change (growth, fast growth) as their adaptive capacity is exceeded. Forests currently sequester significant amounts of carbon; a key vulnerability consists in the loss of this service, and forests may even turn into a net source. Among land ecosystems, forests currently house the largest fraction of biodiversity; unmitigated climate change threatens to put significant parts of it at risk. The boreal domain, being especially sensitive, serves as a model case and is treated in particular depth. Finally, conclusions are drawn to summarize all findings on the global as well as regional scales (sub-chapter 3.8).
This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to... more This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to ensure that the ecosystem services provided by forests are maintained under future climates. The services are divided into broad areas within which managers can identify specific management goals for individual forests or landscapes. Adaptation options exist for the major forest regions of the world but the scientific basis for these adaptation options and their potential effectiveness varies across regions. Because of the great variation in local conditions, no recommendations can be made that are applicable to an entire domain. The choice of management option will depend on the likely changes occurring in the forest, the management objectives of that forest, its past management history and a range of other factors. Local managers must have sufficient flexibility to choose the most appropriate suite of management options for their conditions. The current failure to implement fully the multi-faceted components of sustainable forest management is likely to limit the ability of forest management to adapt to climate change. Forest managers will need to plan at multiple spatial and temporal scales and will need to adopt adaptive collaborative management as their primary form of management. Careful monitoring and evaluation will be required, with a change in focus from outputs to outcomes.
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Papers by Heru Santoso