Papers by Hans Gerhard Strohe
XploRe® - Application Guide, 2000
Umfang und Messung der öffentlichen Wirtschaft, 2016
Umfang und Messung der öffentlichen Wirtschaft, 2016
This paper studies the persistence of daily returns of 21 German stocks from 1960 to 2008. We app... more This paper studies the persistence of daily returns of 21 German stocks from 1960 to 2008. We apply a widely used test based upon the modified R/S-Method by Lo [1991]. As an extension to Lux [1996] and Carbone et al. [2004] and in analogy to moving average or moving volatility, the statistics is calculated for moving windows of length 4, 8, and 16 years for every time series. Periods of persistence or long memory in returns can be found in some but not all time series. Ro-bustness of results is verified by investigating stationarity and short memory effects. 1
Umfang und Messung der öffentlichen Wirtschaft, 2016
Umfang und Messung der öffentlichen Wirtschaft, 2016
In the paper, the interaction between public debt and inflation including mutual impulse response... more In the paper, the interaction between public debt and inflation including mutual impulse response will be analysed. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again the focus on the consequences of public debt in combination with an expansive monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to inflation if the money supply is expansive. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, caused fears on inflating national debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model estimated by Johansen approach. In the empirical part of the article, quarter...
Ekonometria, 2015
In the paper, the authors analyse the interaction between public debt and inflation including the... more In the paper, the authors analyse the interaction between public debt and inflation including the mutual impulse response. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again a focus onto the consequences of government debt in combination with an expansionary monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to higher inflation rates if the money supply is expansionary. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in the total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, have caused fears of inflating government debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables: public debt, consumer price index, money stock m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model. In the empirical part of this article, quarterly data for Germany from 1991 to 2014 are to be examined.
Statistische Diskussionsbeitrage, 1995
In this paper a partial least squares (PLS) approach to dynamic modelling with latent variables i... more In this paper a partial least squares (PLS) approach to dynamic modelling with latent variables is proposed. Let Y be a matrix of manifest variables and H the matrix of the corresponding latent variables. And let H = BH+e be a structural PLS model with a coefficient matrix B. Then this model can be made a dynamic one by substituting for B a matrix F = B + CL containing the lag operator L. Then the structural dynamic model H = FH+e is formally estimated like an ordinary PLS model. In an exploratory way the model can be used for forecasting purposes. The procedure is being programmed in ISP.
Statistische Diskussionsbeitrage, 2010
Persistence of stock returns is an extensively studied and discussed theme in the analysis of fin... more Persistence of stock returns is an extensively studied and discussed theme in the analysis of financial markets. Antipersistence is usually attributed to volatilities. However, not only volatilities but also stock returns can exhibit antipersistence. Antipersistent noise has a somewhat rougher appearance than Gaussian noise. Heuristically spoken, price movements are more likely followed by movements in the opposite direction than in the same direction. The pertaining integrated process exhibits a smaller range-prices seem to stay in the vicinity of the initial value. We apply a widely used test based upon the modified R/S-Method by Lo [1991] to daily returns of 21 German stocks from 1960 to 2008. Combining this test with the concept of moving windows by Carbone et al. [2004], we are able to determine periods of antipersistence for some of the series under examination. Our results suggest that antipersistence can be found for stocks and periods where extraordinary corporate actions such as mergers & acquisitions or financial distress are present. These effects should be properly accounted for when choosing and designing models for inference.
This paper studies the persistence of daily returns of 21 German stocks from 1960 to 2008. We app... more This paper studies the persistence of daily returns of 21 German stocks from 1960 to 2008. We apply a widely used test based upon the modified R/S-Method by Lo [1991]. As an extension to Lux [1996] and Carbone et al. [2004] and in analogy to moving average or moving volatility, the statistics is calculated for moving windows of length 4, 8, and 16 years for every time series. Periods of persistence or long memory in returns can be found in some but not all time series. Robustness of results is verified by investigating stationarity and short memory effects.
Finanz-und Bankenkrisen können seit Jahrhunderten beobachtet werden und gründen auf ähnlichen Ver... more Finanz-und Bankenkrisen können seit Jahrhunderten beobachtet werden und gründen auf ähnlichen Verhaltensweisen der Beteiligten. Wie die vergangenen zwei Jahre gezeigt haben, variieren hingegen die den Krisen zugrundeliegenden tieferen Ursachen und Mechanismen. Durch statistische Daten wird gezeigt, wie die Immobilienpreise in den USA zunächst stiegen. Wegen erwarteter weiterer Wertentwicklung wurden Kredite auch an Schuldner geringer (subprime) Bonität gegeben und Risiken als forderungsbesicherte Wertpapiere auf globalen Märkten veräußert. Als sich die Wachstumserwartungen nicht erfüllten, vermehrten sich Rückzahlungsausfälle lavinenartig. Vom amerikanischen Hypothekenmarkt breitete sich die Krise auf die internationalen Banken und im weiteren Verlauf auf die Weltwirtschaft aus.
Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodelle (VECM) erlauben es, Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Veränderungen mehrer... more Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodelle (VECM) erlauben es, Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Veränderungen mehrerer potenziell endogener Variablen simultan zu modellieren. Die Idee, ein langfristiges Gleichgewicht gleichzeitig mit kurzfristigen Veränderungen zu modellieren, lässt sich vom Eingleichungsansatz des Fehlerkorrekturmodells (ECM) zu einem Mehrgleichungsansatz für Variablenvektoren (VECM) verallgemeinern. Die Anzahl der kointegrierenden Beziehungen und die Koeffizientenmatrizen werden mit dem Johansen-Verfahren geschätzt. An einer einfachen Verallgemeinerung einer Konsumfunktion wird die Schätzung und Wirkungsweise eines VECM für Verbrauch, Einkommen und Aktienkurse in Deutschland gezeigt. Die Anwendung der Beveridge- Nelson-(BN)-Dekomposition auf vektorautoregressive Prozesse ermöglicht zudem, Abhängigkeiten zwischen den aus den kointegrierten Zeitreihen extrahierten zyklischen Komponenten zu schätzen.
This paper reviews theoretical and empirical evidence of asset price movements impact on the real... more This paper reviews theoretical and empirical evidence of asset price movements impact on the real economic activity. A key channel is the wealth effect on consumption. Fluctuations in stock prices and housing prices influence the households wealth and could have important impacts on households consumption. In addition, stock prices may affect corporate sector investments and property prices may affect building activity. Here, the method of cointegration is used to estimate the wealth effect and the investment effect in aggregate time series for Germany after the Reunification in 1990. Moreover, we discuss the role of asset prices in the monetary policy strategy of the ECB.
Der statistische Diskussionbeitrag untersucht, ob und wie sich Erwartungen und Stimmungen in der ... more Der statistische Diskussionbeitrag untersucht, ob und wie sich Erwartungen und Stimmungen in der Wirtschaft bilden bzw. von welchen volkswirtschaftlichen Größen sie abhängen. Als Methodik werden Partial Least Squares (PLS) Modelle genutzt, eine Modellklasse der Pfadanalyse mit latenten Variablen. Die verwendeten Daten wurden vom Ifo-Institut und aus der amtlichen Statistik entnommen. This paper analyses the development of sentiments and expectations in
Uploads
Papers by Hans Gerhard Strohe