Emerging spatial patterns of the demographics, labour force and FDI in Uzbekistan
Central Asian Survey, 2000
Like all the remnant states of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan is faced with constructing independen... more Like all the remnant states of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan is faced with constructing independent economic structures and linking those to the global economy. The challenge in Uzbekistan differs markedly from that in Russia, Ukraine, the Baltics and other industrialized regions of the former socialist leviathan in several important dimensions, however. The challenge of economic development in Uzbekistan is compounded by a burgeoning population, the youthful structure of the existing population and an agrarian-based economic structure inherited from the Soviet era. Millions of young Uzbeks will enter the job market over the next twenty years and evidence suggests they will not migrate in large numbers, either internally or externally. The rami cations for stability are obvious: as the labour force expands, the Uzbek economy must grow at a comparable rate, or risk social and political upheaval as levels of unemployment increase and standards of living decline. Located in the geographic heart of Central Asia, Uzbekistan borders on every other post-Soviet Central Asian country as well as Afghanistan and dwarfs all of its neighbours demographically except Kazakstan. Several of those states hold large Uzbek minorities, and it seems clear that Uzbekistan will play a pivotal role in the development of the entire region. The success or failure of the country’s experiment with independence and economic reform therefore holds high stakes for Central Asia’s stability, a region of extreme importance due to its position as the nexus of South Asia, western China, and Russia. The discussion that follows will brie y describe current economic conditions in Uzbekistan, and then turn to an investigation of the spatial characteristics of economic development in the country by focusing on the geographical aspects of three factors: demographic expansion, labour force structure and dynamics, and locational attributes of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). The developing patterns of each of these will be examined and explicated in turn. The nal stage of the analysis will brie y address the inter-relationship of these three elements and how that relationship may in uence political stability in the emerging Uzbek state.
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Papers by Reuel Hanks