The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do n... more The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this work is copyrighted. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or inclusion in any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the World Bank. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint, please send a request with complete information to the Foreword In public finance, it no longer suffices for analysts and institutions to focus solely on budget revenues and expenditures. Recent history demonstrates that fiscal performance and, in turn, economic development can be seriously disrupted by the sudden, unexpected costs of hidden contingent liabilities and other unanticipated fiscal risks. During the second half of the 1990s, unreported contingent liabilities and related fiscal risks contributed to economic crises and disrupted growth in a number of developing countries, motivating stepped-up efforts at the World Bank to devise new concepts and tools for analyzing and managing public finance. With the aim of improving the analysis of fiscal risks and supporting policy advice in this area, the Economic Policy Unit of the Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network established the Quality of Fiscal Adjustment Thematic Group. This book was produced as part of the effort by this Thematic Group to promote new thinking about public finance. We now know that conventional frameworks for fiscal analysis that concentrate on direct, explicit liabilities fail to address contingent fiscal risks. For example, fiscal sustainability analysis that focuses, as is typically the case, on the officially reported budget deficits fails to detect possible future increases in government debt and payments that may emerge from both explicit and implicit government guarantees on enterprise credit, state insurance schemes, exchange rate guarantees, and commitments to assist failed banks. Similarly, the government budget process and …
... Kees den Boogert is an adviser at the Tax Policy Directorate of the Ministry of Finance of th... more ... Kees den Boogert is an adviser at the Tax Policy Directorate of the Ministry of Finance of the Netherlands. ... Leo van den Ende is head of the Tax Analysis Division at the Tax Policy Directorate of the Ministry of Finance of the Netherlands. Page 15. ...
... and Managing Government Contingent Liabilities in the Banking Sector 311 Stijn Claessens, Uni... more ... and Managing Government Contingent Liabilities in the Banking Sector 311 Stijn Claessens, University of Amsterdam, and Daniela Klingebiel, World ... The Fiscal Risk of Floods: Lessons of Argentina 451 Alcira Kreimer, World Bank Conclusion: Toward a Code of Good Practice ...
Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the develop... more Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. Some sources cited in the paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the develop... more Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. Some sources cited in the paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affi liated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
Fiscal activities in the form of contingent liabilities are common in both developed and developi... more Fiscal activities in the form of contingent liabilities are common in both developed and developing countries, in part because they allow governments to secure public services or economic and financial stability without immediately having to raise taxes or borrow. Yet they pose a fiscal danger as governments may underestimate or under-report their risks and possible future fiscal costs. Although they may not appear in governments’ fiscal reports in the short term, they generate government risk exposures and create fiscal obligations for the medium to long term. The accumulation of such risk exposures and obligations depends on fiscal institutions. Fiscal institutions influence government decisions towards contingent liabilities and fiscal risk, and can contribute to limiting the use and design of contingent liabilities as a form of fiscal activity.
World Bank policy research working paper, Nov 30, 1999
Governments' contingent liabilities increase fiscal Contingent Government vulnerability, but are ... more Governments' contingent liabilities increase fiscal Contingent Government vulnerability, but are omitted Liabilities in traditional measures of the current deficit. In the Czech Republic this omission may Case Studies of the Czech Republic mean that f[scal adjustment and Macedonia has been overstated by 3 to 4 percent of annual GDP, with future budgets having to pay
This article presents an innovative approach to addressing governance challenges in public servic... more This article presents an innovative approach to addressing governance challenges in public service delivery in China. It builds on a citizen scorecard survey covering 5,000 households in five cities: Chengdu, Dalian, Shanghai-Pudong, Shenzhen and Xi’an. The survey helped policy-makers reveal weaknesses and enhance policy implementation and public service delivery.
Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the develop... more Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. Some sources cited in the paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
This is a working document. It has been prepared to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and to s... more This is a working document. It has been prepared to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and to stimulate discussion. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF The text has not been edited to official publication standards and UNICEF accepts no responsibility for errors. The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers.
ABSTRACT Reflecting on the lessons from international experience, this article aims to outline th... more ABSTRACT Reflecting on the lessons from international experience, this article aims to outline the analytical and institutional framework for restoring essential public services after a disaster. Specifically, this article offers a five-pillar framework to support successful reconstruction of essential social services in disaster-affected localities. The article is set in the context of China’s Reconstruction Strategy following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The five-pillar framework, however, is relevant for any developing country that may face the challenge of reconstruction after a major disaster.
NUMBER 9 ECONOMIC POLICY Contingent liabilities-a threat to fiscal stability Many governments hav... more NUMBER 9 ECONOMIC POLICY Contingent liabilities-a threat to fiscal stability Many governments have faced serious fiscal instability as a result of their contingent liabilities. But conventional fiscal analysis fails to address contingent fiscal risks. What should be done? Contingent government liabilities are asso-policies, the probability of a contingency ciated with major hidden fiscal risks. Thus occurring and the magnitude of the fiscal adjustment that targets deficit and requiredpublic outlayare exogenous (such Any study of a
ABSTRACT The article demonstrates the importance of incorporating contingent liabilities into fis... more ABSTRACT The article demonstrates the importance of incorporating contingent liabilities into fiscal analysis. When explicit expenditures are shifted off budget or replaced by guarantees, achieved fiscal balance is an illusion. In the Czech Republic, fiscal adjustment may have been overstated by some three to four percent of annual GDP during the 1990's. A stabilization program accompanied by a build-up of contingent liabilities, particularly, state guarantees and obligations to cover liabilities emerging from directed credit and from the purchases of bad assets by state-sponsored agencies, may not be sustainable. The study concludes that the government of the Czech Republic should aim at reducing its overall fiscal vulnerability rather than the budget deficit, develop a more effective strategy to resolve the problem of hidden debt, and enhance the public-finance institutional framework to create adequate incentives for policy makers in dealing with contingent liabilities.
The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic has unleashed a global health emergency and an unprecedented ... more The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic has unleashed a global health emergency and an unprecedented economic crisis of historic magnitude. Disease containment is a first-order priority to combat the pandemic, and measures such as testing, tracing, and isolating and treating the infected can bring first-order gains. The economic crisis requires a parallel and simultaneous effort to save jobs and protect the incomes of those affected by the pandemic – impacts that will weigh heavily on vulnerable populations and firms affected by the economic slowdown. As governments act to slow the pandemic and protect lives and livelihoods now, they must also maintain macro stability to avoid financial crises and social unrest, which could plunge countries into deeper downturns. Tough policy tradeoffs emerge in both the short and longer terms, shaped by complex interactions among epidemiological factors, demographics, fiscal space, government capacity, and the strength of health and service delivery sy...
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do n... more The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this work is copyrighted. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or inclusion in any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the World Bank. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint, please send a request with complete information to the Foreword In public finance, it no longer suffices for analysts and institutions to focus solely on budget revenues and expenditures. Recent history demonstrates that fiscal performance and, in turn, economic development can be seriously disrupted by the sudden, unexpected costs of hidden contingent liabilities and other unanticipated fiscal risks. During the second half of the 1990s, unreported contingent liabilities and related fiscal risks contributed to economic crises and disrupted growth in a number of developing countries, motivating stepped-up efforts at the World Bank to devise new concepts and tools for analyzing and managing public finance. With the aim of improving the analysis of fiscal risks and supporting policy advice in this area, the Economic Policy Unit of the Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network established the Quality of Fiscal Adjustment Thematic Group. This book was produced as part of the effort by this Thematic Group to promote new thinking about public finance. We now know that conventional frameworks for fiscal analysis that concentrate on direct, explicit liabilities fail to address contingent fiscal risks. For example, fiscal sustainability analysis that focuses, as is typically the case, on the officially reported budget deficits fails to detect possible future increases in government debt and payments that may emerge from both explicit and implicit government guarantees on enterprise credit, state insurance schemes, exchange rate guarantees, and commitments to assist failed banks. Similarly, the government budget process and …
... Kees den Boogert is an adviser at the Tax Policy Directorate of the Ministry of Finance of th... more ... Kees den Boogert is an adviser at the Tax Policy Directorate of the Ministry of Finance of the Netherlands. ... Leo van den Ende is head of the Tax Analysis Division at the Tax Policy Directorate of the Ministry of Finance of the Netherlands. Page 15. ...
... and Managing Government Contingent Liabilities in the Banking Sector 311 Stijn Claessens, Uni... more ... and Managing Government Contingent Liabilities in the Banking Sector 311 Stijn Claessens, University of Amsterdam, and Daniela Klingebiel, World ... The Fiscal Risk of Floods: Lessons of Argentina 451 Alcira Kreimer, World Bank Conclusion: Toward a Code of Good Practice ...
Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the develop... more Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. Some sources cited in the paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the develop... more Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. Some sources cited in the paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affi liated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
Fiscal activities in the form of contingent liabilities are common in both developed and developi... more Fiscal activities in the form of contingent liabilities are common in both developed and developing countries, in part because they allow governments to secure public services or economic and financial stability without immediately having to raise taxes or borrow. Yet they pose a fiscal danger as governments may underestimate or under-report their risks and possible future fiscal costs. Although they may not appear in governments’ fiscal reports in the short term, they generate government risk exposures and create fiscal obligations for the medium to long term. The accumulation of such risk exposures and obligations depends on fiscal institutions. Fiscal institutions influence government decisions towards contingent liabilities and fiscal risk, and can contribute to limiting the use and design of contingent liabilities as a form of fiscal activity.
World Bank policy research working paper, Nov 30, 1999
Governments' contingent liabilities increase fiscal Contingent Government vulnerability, but are ... more Governments' contingent liabilities increase fiscal Contingent Government vulnerability, but are omitted Liabilities in traditional measures of the current deficit. In the Czech Republic this omission may Case Studies of the Czech Republic mean that f[scal adjustment and Macedonia has been overstated by 3 to 4 percent of annual GDP, with future budgets having to pay
This article presents an innovative approach to addressing governance challenges in public servic... more This article presents an innovative approach to addressing governance challenges in public service delivery in China. It builds on a citizen scorecard survey covering 5,000 households in five cities: Chengdu, Dalian, Shanghai-Pudong, Shenzhen and Xi’an. The survey helped policy-makers reveal weaknesses and enhance policy implementation and public service delivery.
Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the develop... more Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. Some sources cited in the paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
This is a working document. It has been prepared to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and to s... more This is a working document. It has been prepared to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and to stimulate discussion. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF The text has not been edited to official publication standards and UNICEF accepts no responsibility for errors. The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers.
ABSTRACT Reflecting on the lessons from international experience, this article aims to outline th... more ABSTRACT Reflecting on the lessons from international experience, this article aims to outline the analytical and institutional framework for restoring essential public services after a disaster. Specifically, this article offers a five-pillar framework to support successful reconstruction of essential social services in disaster-affected localities. The article is set in the context of China’s Reconstruction Strategy following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The five-pillar framework, however, is relevant for any developing country that may face the challenge of reconstruction after a major disaster.
NUMBER 9 ECONOMIC POLICY Contingent liabilities-a threat to fiscal stability Many governments hav... more NUMBER 9 ECONOMIC POLICY Contingent liabilities-a threat to fiscal stability Many governments have faced serious fiscal instability as a result of their contingent liabilities. But conventional fiscal analysis fails to address contingent fiscal risks. What should be done? Contingent government liabilities are asso-policies, the probability of a contingency ciated with major hidden fiscal risks. Thus occurring and the magnitude of the fiscal adjustment that targets deficit and requiredpublic outlayare exogenous (such Any study of a
ABSTRACT The article demonstrates the importance of incorporating contingent liabilities into fis... more ABSTRACT The article demonstrates the importance of incorporating contingent liabilities into fiscal analysis. When explicit expenditures are shifted off budget or replaced by guarantees, achieved fiscal balance is an illusion. In the Czech Republic, fiscal adjustment may have been overstated by some three to four percent of annual GDP during the 1990's. A stabilization program accompanied by a build-up of contingent liabilities, particularly, state guarantees and obligations to cover liabilities emerging from directed credit and from the purchases of bad assets by state-sponsored agencies, may not be sustainable. The study concludes that the government of the Czech Republic should aim at reducing its overall fiscal vulnerability rather than the budget deficit, develop a more effective strategy to resolve the problem of hidden debt, and enhance the public-finance institutional framework to create adequate incentives for policy makers in dealing with contingent liabilities.
The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic has unleashed a global health emergency and an unprecedented ... more The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic has unleashed a global health emergency and an unprecedented economic crisis of historic magnitude. Disease containment is a first-order priority to combat the pandemic, and measures such as testing, tracing, and isolating and treating the infected can bring first-order gains. The economic crisis requires a parallel and simultaneous effort to save jobs and protect the incomes of those affected by the pandemic – impacts that will weigh heavily on vulnerable populations and firms affected by the economic slowdown. As governments act to slow the pandemic and protect lives and livelihoods now, they must also maintain macro stability to avoid financial crises and social unrest, which could plunge countries into deeper downturns. Tough policy tradeoffs emerge in both the short and longer terms, shaped by complex interactions among epidemiological factors, demographics, fiscal space, government capacity, and the strength of health and service delivery sy...
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