Papers by Grzegorz Koloch
The article presents a quantitative analysis of pollen data from the two regions of Poland which ... more The article presents a quantitative analysis of pollen data from the two regions of Poland which played a crucial role in the country’s history: Greater and Lesser Poland. By reconstructing the changes in vegetation patterns that took place during the last two millennia at the regional level, it contributes to the study of economic and environmental history of Poland from a longue durée perspective.
In this paper we introduce a new source of data to economic history: palynological data or, in ot... more In this paper we introduce a new source of data to economic history: palynological data or, in other words, information about pollen grains which are preserved in the bottom sediments of various water basins. We discuss how this data is collected and how it should be interpreted; develop new methods for aggregating this information into regional trends in agricultural output; construct an extensive dataset with a large number of pollen sites from Central Europe; and use our methods to study the economic history of Greater Poland, Lesser Poland, Bohemia, Brandenburg, and Lower Saxony since the first century AD.
The paper documents elements of work on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) SOEPL m... more The paper documents elements of work on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) SOEPL model that has been carried out in recent years at the National Bank of Poland. In 2009 a new version of the model was developed (called SOEPL−2009) which in 2010 is to support an econometric model and experts’ forecasts in mid-term forecasting of inflation and economic
Observed macroeconomic data – notably GDP growth rate, inflation and interest rates – can be, and... more Observed macroeconomic data – notably GDP growth rate, inflation and interest rates – can be, and usually are skewed. Economists attempt to fit models to data by matching first and second moments or co-moments, but skewness is usually neglected. It is so probably because skewness cannot appear in linear (or linearized) models with Gaussian shocks, and shocks are usually assumed
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 2011
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implica... more The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implications of theoretical economic models or the use of advanced econometric techniques can help explain future movements in exchange rates. The results of the empirical studies for major world currencies show that forecasts from a naive random walk tend to be comparable or even better than forecasts from more sophisticated models. In the case of the Polish zloty, the discussion in the literature on exchange rate forecasting is scarce. This article fills this gap by testing whether non-linear time series models are able to generate forecasts for the nominal exchange rate of the Polish zloty that are more accurate than forecasts from a random walk. Our results confirm the main findings from the literature, namely that it is difficult to outperform a naive random walk in exchange rate forecasting contest.
ABSTRACT In the paper we examine a modification of the classical Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) in... more ABSTRACT In the paper we examine a modification of the classical Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) in which shapes of transported cargo are accounted for. This problem, known as a three-dimensional VRP with loading constraints (3D-VRP), is appropriate when transported commodities are not perfectly divisible, but they have fixed and heterogeneous dimensions. In the paper restrictions on allowable cargo positionings are also considered. These restrictions are derived from business practice and they extended the baseline 3D-VRP formulation as considered by Koloch and Kaminski (2010). In particular, we investigate how additional restrictions influence relative performance of two proposed optimization algorithms: the nested and the joint one. Performance of both methods is compared on artificial problems and on a big-scale real life case study.
This Report is a third in the series Employment in Poland. It consists of four Parts, devoted to ... more This Report is a third in the series Employment in Poland. It consists of four Parts, devoted to empirical analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on EU New Member States labour markets‘ in 1996-2006; utilization of flexible forms of employment on Polish labor market, determinants of wages and wage inequalities in Poland; effectiveness of ALMP in Poland, respectively. In
Economics of Transition, 2013
In this paper the dynamic responses of labor markets to macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countri... more In this paper the dynamic responses of labor markets to macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries are empirically analyzed in panel SVECM. Identification of shocks, interpreted as real wage, productivity, labor demand and supply shocks, is based on DSGE model with labor market explicitly modeled after . Fluctuations in foreign demand are controlled for and the model is estimated with panel procedure, which improves estimation's precision. We show that propagation of shocks on NMS labor markets fairly resembles that characterizing OECD countries. Productivity improving shocks temporarily increase unemployment. Positive labor demand shocks increase employment, depress unemployment, rise real average wages, and were found to be the main determinant of variability of employment and unemployment in the short-run. In the medium term, in Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland innovations in wages seem to be prevalent drivers of employment and unemployment. The retrospective simulations of the model show that Baltic states and Poland were significantly affected by the collapse of Russian exports in late 1990s, and in 2000 an adverse labor demand shock hit all NMS, except for Hungary and Slovenia. However, the flexibility of wages is found to be crucial factor behind the diverse labor market performance in the region. Slovenia and Estonia fared best when it comes to flexibility of wages on macro level, on the other hand in Czech Republic, Lithuania and Poland downward wage rigidities were especially binding after employment-contracting shocks.
Journal of Economic Surveys, 2013
Jahrbuch der Österreichischen Byzantinistik, 2015
This paper discusses the results of a numerical analysis of the existing palynological evidence f... more This paper discusses the results of a numerical analysis of the existing palynological evidence from medieval and early modern Balkans and Anatolia; as such, it hopes to provide new quantitative data for the study of Byzantine and Ottoman economic history. After presenting the palynological database prepared for this project – as well as the numerical methods developed specifically to deal with this material – the core of the paper is devoted to historical interpretation. In the first section we deal with the late antique and early medieval periods, demonstrating that signs of both late antique agrarian prosperity and early medieval economic collapse may be observed across Greece, Macedonia and Anatolia. The following section focuses on evidence for the development of a pastoral economy in the central Balkan mountain ranges, between the early Middle Ages and the Ottoman era. The third section discusses environmental aspects of the middle Byzantine economic revival. Finally, the paper focuses on how different regions of the Balkans and Anatolia fared during the late Byzantine and Ottoman periods; in particular, we demonstrate how the Byzantine economic system came to an end, and how a new economic geography emerged during the Ottoman era.
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Papers by Grzegorz Koloch