Papers by Gordon Mulligan
Regional Science Policy & Practice, 2013
Many local and regional practitioners still use the single multiplier version of economic (export... more Many local and regional practitioners still use the single multiplier version of economic (export) base analysis in project assessments. However, dependable estimates of this multiplier require that the division of total activity into its export (basic) and local (non-basic) components be reasonably accurate across all industries. This paper compares the economic base multiplier that is generated by a shortcut approach, one calibrated by the Arizona Community Data Set (ACDS), with that generated by the popular IMPLAN input-output model. The comparison is made across 577 micropolitan (all non-metropolitan) US counties in the year 2000. Although the two approaches are not at all similar they generate comparable economic base multipliers. Moreover, various regional attributes, like human capital and specialization, affect the two multiplier estimates in much the same way.
Regional Science Policy & Practice, 2013
Many local and regional practitioners still use the single multiplier version of economic (export... more Many local and regional practitioners still use the single multiplier version of economic (export) base analysis in project assessments. However, dependable estimates of this multiplier require that the division of total activity into its export (basic) and local (non-basic) components be reasonably accurate across all industries. This paper compares the economic base multiplier that is generated by a shortcut approach, one calibrated by the Arizona Community Data Set (ACDS), with that generated by the popular IMPLAN input-output model. The comparison is made across 577 micropolitan (all non-metropolitan) US counties in the year 2000. Although the two approaches are not at all similar they generate comparable economic base multipliers. Moreover, various regional attributes, like human capital and specialization, affect the two multiplier estimates in much the same way.
Population and Employment Change in US Metropolitan Areas
New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives
Studies in Regional Science
The problem of the spatial monopolist is well known where, facing a spatial distribution of consu... more The problem of the spatial monopolist is well known where, facing a spatial distribution of consumers with the same tastes and resources, the firm seeks to optimize. Shopping behavior is invariably assumed to be deterministic but in this paper a version of stochastic behavior is used instead. Specifically, the density parameter of the Poisson distribution is adopted to represent the expected demand of those spatial households. So consumers found at different locations generate different frequencies of shopping trips to the spatial firm. In turn, these locationspecific trip frequencies vary with the firm's optimizing price, which is determined in the usual way. Subsequent aggregation over all possible locations allows for the identification of the trip volume and the market demand for each feasible trip frequency. The paper also assesses how consumer heterogeneity, a feature of all advanced societies, will affect the various solutions. Three groups (poor, average, and rich) of consumers with different demand attributes are considered. The spatial monopolist now sets an optimizing price that weights each group's specific demand parameters. The stochastic distribution of shopping trips necessarily shifts to reflect this modification to spatial demand. Numerical comparative statics indicate how market solutions shift for small changes in marginal cost, household demand, transportation cost, and consumer heterogeneity.
The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War, by Robert J.Gordon. 2016. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 762 + xii. ISBN 978-0-691-14772-7, $30.95 (hardcover)
Journal of Regional Science
Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2010
Using two separate data sets a disaggregate (multi-industry) economic base model is estimated for... more Using two separate data sets a disaggregate (multi-industry) economic base model is estimated for the nonmetropolitan U. S. in 1980, 1990, and 2000. One data set is comprised of 196 small towns located in four Southwestern states; the other is comprised of 577 micropolitan counties located across the nation. A new shortcut method was first used to generate the basic-nonbasic employment splits for eight major industries. Then the cross-industry nonbasic (local) employment requirements were estimated by applying ordinary least-squares regression. These local job requirements are shown to vary within industries, across different industries, and across the two data sets. Earlier estimates of interindustry employment impacts, which were based on much smaller data sets, are shown to be overly restrictive. New projects in manufacturing and government, often favored by policymakers, would appear to have relatively small but evenly distributed impacts on local employment in nonmetropolitan economies.
Advances in Spatial Science, 1997
Modem agricultural location theory stems from the seminal contributions of David Ricardo (1772Ric... more Modem agricultural location theory stems from the seminal contributions of David Ricardo (1772Ricardo ( -1834 and Johann Heinrich von ThOnen (1783-1850) nearly two hundred years ago. Today, in the capitalist economies, much ofthe spatial variation in agricultural land use depends on but two factors: first, differences in physical features, where soil fertility, c1imate, and topography affect productivity; and second, differences in relative location, where farms face different transportation costs in delivering their produce to either markets or points of export. Unfortunately, even after the suggestion of McCarty and Lindberg (1966) some thirty years ago, few serious attempts have been made to synthesize these two complementary approaches to agriculturallocation theory. This paper focuses largely on von ThOnen's model, a1though the last section addresses environmental variability. As Dunn (1955) pointed out, the traditional interpretation of von ThOnen is a partial equilibrium model where aii land-use decisions are based on exogenous market prices. While Dunn acknowledged that market demand should be considered for each agricultural activity, he never did demonstrate how to operationalise c10sure of the model. Consequently, the traditional von Thtinen model for agriculture, with its sole emphasis on production or supply, must be considered seriously deficient as a predictive tool.
Structure and Change in the Space Economy, 1993
Targeting Regional Economic Development â Edited by Stephan J. Goetz, Steven C. Deller, and Thomas R. Harris: BOOK REVIEWS
Growth Change, 2009
Book Review: Inequality and Instability: A Study of the World Economy Just Before the Great Crisis
Labor Studies Journal, 2012
Geographical Analysis, 2010
Geographical Analysis, 2010
Environment and Planning A, 1992
Environment and Planning A, 1999
Adjustment models are used increasingly to analyze population and employment changes in regional ... more Adjustment models are used increasingly to analyze population and employment changes in regional economies. However, questions remain about the most appropriate geographic scales and time lags for these models. In this paper we estimate a well-known adjustment model for a recent 25-year period in the USA. Regional population and employment changes (levels and densities) are examined at three scales (states, Bureau of Economic Analysis regions, counties) using various time lags (one to ten years). Two-stage least squares regression estimates, based on Regional Economic Information System data running between 1969 and 1994, are generated and discussed. Analysis is restricted to the core relationships between population and employment; the roles of other exogenous variables, normally included in adjustment models, are not considered. Instead, concern is focused on issues such as stability and directional causality of the interacting population-employment systems. Some brief suggestions regarding future research conclude the paper. P P O P § CL CD
Book Review: Glaeser, E. L. (2011). Triumph of the City. New York, NY: Penguin Books. ISBN: 978-1-59420-277-3
Economic Development Quarterly, 2011
Reprint of: Revisiting the urbanization curve
Cities, 2013
Revisiting the urbanization curve
Cities, 2013
ABSTRACT The urbanization process creates demographic landscapes that are both volatile and uneve... more ABSTRACT The urbanization process creates demographic landscapes that are both volatile and uneven. As regions or nations pursue economic development, the level of urbanization—the percentage share of people living in cities—follows a typical pattern: urban shares first rise slowly, then rapidly, and then slowly again. The entire sequence traces out an S-shaped figure often called the urbanization curve. This curve has been widely invoked in the discussion of Homo Urbanus but has rarely been used to analyze the urbanization experiences of different regions and nations. This paper revisits the urbanization curve and shows that national urbanization—whether contemporary or historical—generally conforms to the logistic process. Using UN population data, comparisons are made between the logistic model and other simple time-series and econometric models. The logistic process is sufficiently flexible to depict urbanization unfolding across nations at very different stages of economic development. The substantial variety now seen in national urbanization suggests the existence of separate urbanization clubs.
Regional Science Policy & Practice, 2013
Many local and regional practitioners still use the single multiplier version of economic (export... more Many local and regional practitioners still use the single multiplier version of economic (export) base analysis in project assessments. However, dependable estimates of this multiplier require that the division of total activity into its export (basic) and local (non-basic) components be reasonably accurate across all industries. This paper compares the economic base multiplier that is generated by a shortcut approach, one calibrated by the Arizona Community Data Set (ACDS), with that generated by the popular IMPLAN input-output model. The comparison is made across 577 micropolitan (all non-metropolitan) US counties in the year 2000. Although the two approaches are not at all similar they generate comparable economic base multipliers. Moreover, various regional attributes, like human capital and specialization, affect the two multiplier estimates in much the same way.
Population and Employment Change in US Metropolitan Areas
New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives
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Papers by Gordon Mulligan