Papers by Gerhard Runstler
Journal of contextual economics, Apr 1, 1996
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WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), 2010
Economics Series, Mar 1, 1998
WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), 1996
Das Konzept des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials (PO) dient Wirtschaftspolitik und Wi... more Das Konzept des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials (PO) dient Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung als Indikator fur das langfristige Wachstumspotential einer Volkswirtschaft. Die Abweichung des tatsachlichen vom potentiellen Output gibt daruber hinaus Orientierungshilfen fur die kurzfristige Stabilitatspolitik. Die Geld- und Wahrungsbehorden in vielen Industrielandern verwenden u. a. das Konzept des Potential Output zur Steuerung und Effektuierung inflationspolitischer Masnahmen. Als geeignetes Mas fur die Neuberechnung des PO fur Osterreich wird eine Kombination aus astrukturellen (mechanistischen) und strukturellen Elementen auf der Grundlage des "Natural-rate"-Gleichgewichtskonzeptes vorgeschlagen. Einfachheit der Berechnungsmethode bei gleichzeitig effizienter Nutzung der verfugbaren unterjahrigen Daten- und Informationsbasis zahlen zu den Vorteilen dieses Verfahrens.
Occasional paper series, 2017
This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.
* The project described in this paper was conducted under the auspices of the Eurosystem working ... more * The project described in this paper was conducted under the auspices of the Eurosystem working groups on Econometric Modelling and on Forecasting. The authors would like to thank the members of the two working groups, in particular L. Reichlin, A. d'Agostino, D. Giannone and C. Schumacher, for their helpful comments.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2021
This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.
Social Science Research Network, 2007
In 2007 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2021
This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 2559 / May 2021 Discussion papers Discussion papers are research-based papers on policy relevant topics. They are singled out from standard Working Papers in that they offer a broader and more balanced perspective. While being partly based on original research, they place the analysis in the wider context of the literature on the topic. They also consider explicitly the policy perspective, with a view to develop a number of key policy messages. Their format offers the advantage that alternative analyses and perspectives can be combined, including theoretical and empirical work. Discussion papers are written in a style that is more broadly accessible compared to standard Working Papers. They are light on formulas and regression tables, at least in the main text. The selection and distribution of discussion papers are subject to the approval of the Director General of the Directorate General Research.
aus dem Inhaltsverzeichnis: Verkehrsinfrastruktur und regionale Entwicklung: Theoretische und met... more aus dem Inhaltsverzeichnis: Verkehrsinfrastruktur und regionale Entwicklung: Theoretische und methodische Uberlegungen; Verkehr im landlichen Raum; Die regionale Bedeutung der Bahnstrecke Retz-Drosendorf; Die regionalwirtschaftliche Bedeutung der Bahnstrecke fur die Privathaushalte (Haushaltsbefragung Mai 1999); Die regionalwirtschaftliche Bedeutung der Bahnstrecke fur die Unternehmen (Expertinnenbefragung Mai/Juni 1999); Zusammenfassung;
aus dem Inhaltsverzeichnis: Zusammenfassung; Ergebnisse der vorliegenden Studie: Infrastruktur un... more aus dem Inhaltsverzeichnis: Zusammenfassung; Ergebnisse der vorliegenden Studie: Infrastruktur und Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Langfristige Effekte der Infrastruktur in Osterreich; Schlusfolgerungen; Appendix;
summary: the present paper investigates whether the conditional expectations of returns and volat... more summary: the present paper investigates whether the conditional expectations of returns and volatilities of selected stocks traded on the vienna stock exchange can be explained by a common market factor. univariate garch(1,1)-estimates of conditional volatilities are compared with several modifications of the factor-arch-model (engle, ng & rothschild, 1990). it is shown that an extended one-factor-model allowing for a short-term memory of stock-specific shocks fits the data as well as univariate estimates . secondly, conditional expectations are estimated on the basis of a var(1)-process. in order to account for the heteroscedasticity of the returns wls-estimators are used. subsequently, the most predictible portfolio is constructed by a canonical analysis (box & tiao, 1977) of the var(1). the results depend strongly on the weights given to high volatile periods.;
Abstract: In a bivariate Vector Autoregressive approach Blanchard and Quah [1989] used the unempl... more Abstract: In a bivariate Vector Autoregressive approach Blanchard and Quah [1989] used the unemployment rate as a stationary indicator to disentangle the effects of permanent and transitory innovations to output. This paper examines the stability oftheir results with respect to a wider class of time series models and the choice of the stationary variable. We take a Vector Autoregressive Moving Average approach to allow for a more parsimonious representation of the process. Furthermore, capacity utilization and the rate of inflation are used as alternative cyclical indicators. It turns out that the decomposition is fairly stable, with the exception of the model where we used the GNP-deflator as stationary variable. Finally, we discuss the interpretation of permanent and transitory innovations as supply and demand innovations.;
Social Science Research Network, Jun 17, 2016
Note: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central... more Note: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Nov 1, 1997
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Papers by Gerhard Runstler