Papers by Benjamin Ayodele Folorunso
Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria
Macroeconomic Analysis for Economic Growth
The study examined the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic... more The study examined the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria covering the period between 1986Q1 and 2019Q4. The Non-linear Generalised Autoregressive Distributive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was employed. The study was motivated as a result of periodic increase in exchange rate of naira to a dollar and instability of macroeconomic variables in the economy. The presence of Autoregressive Distributive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effect established the use of non-linear GARCH models which showed that volatility was persistent over the period of study. Consequently, the result revealed that exchange rate volatility exhibited a positive relationship with trade balance, industrial output and inflation in the study period. Thus, good news prevailed more over bad news in the foreign exchange market. The study therefore recommended that monetary authorities in Nigeria should regulate exchange rate and macr...
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Instruments and Economic Growth Sustainability in Nigeria
American Journal of Economics, 2015
The paper examined the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy instruments on econom... more The paper examined the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy instruments on economic growth sustainability in Nigeria in order to determine the appropriate mix of both policies. The paper employed error correction mechanism whereby the time series properties of fiscal and monetary variables were first examined using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philip Perron unit root tests, followed by Johansen cointegration test among the series using annual data for the period 1970-2013. Data were sourced mainly from Statistical Bulletin published by the Central Bank Nigeria. The unit root test results revealed that all fiscal and monetary policy variables are non-stationary and attained stationarity at first difference. The result also showed that all the fiscal and monetary variables of interest cointegrated with the economic growth series in the country. This suggests that there is a long run relationship among fiscal and monetary variables and economic growth. The paper, however...
The Imperative of National Security and Stability for Development Process in Contemporary Nigeria
The study examined the effect of instability on growth and investment from 1970 to 2003 using ECM... more The study examined the effect of instability on growth and investment from 1970 to 2003 using ECM-econometric techniques. Causal relationship between macro-economic instability and political instability was also investigated using Granger-causality tests. Data employed for the analysis were gathered from the Statistical Bulletin, the Central Bank of Nigeria publication complemented by the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank. The study showed that political instability and macroeconomic instability had impacted negative effects on growth while the effect of macroeconomic instability on investment was positive. A positive correlation was found between the measures of political instability and macroeconomic instability. The causal results revealed a uni-directional relationship running from macroeconomic instability to political violence indicating that growth in macroeconomic instability impacted harmful effects on political instability in Nigeria. The study, ther...
The paper examined the effect of globalization of economic growth in Nigeria. The period of analy... more The paper examined the effect of globalization of economic growth in Nigeria. The period of analysis was between 1986 and 2003 while the analytical method employed was econometric techniques of Error Correction Modelling (ECM). The result indicated that both measures of economic integration (trade openness and financial integration) and all other orthodox determinants of economic growth such as private investment, public investment and debt series were non stationary. They were indeed I(1) series. The paper also confirmed that trade openness had significant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The impact of financial integration on the economy is, however, negative but insignificant at 10 per cent level of significance. The paper concluded that Nigeria could benefit more from globalization if its economy would fully integrate with the rest of the world. The paper therefore suggested the removal of all barriers to trade and movement of capital. JEL classification:
The Imperative of National Security and Stability for Development Process in Contemporary Nigeria
Editor-In-Chief, 2006
European Journal of Social Sciences–Volume 2, Number 2 (2006) 66 The Imperative of National Secur... more European Journal of Social Sciences–Volume 2, Number 2 (2006) 66 The Imperative of National Security and Stability for Development Process in Contemporary Nigeria Sunday Idowu Oladeji Department of Economics Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria ...
Family characteristics, students' reading habits, environment and students' academic performance in Nigeria
International Journal of Education Economics and Development, 2010
... Philips Opeyemi Abogan ... It was found that student's academic performance was posi... more ... Philips Opeyemi Abogan ... It was found that student's academic performance was positively influenced by student's parental level of education, maternal income level, age, income of the student and number of hours allocated for reading on daily basis. ...
Irreversibility and Private Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty
Developing countries are in dire need of sustainable economic growth and theoretical literature s... more Developing countries are in dire need of sustainable economic growth and theoretical literature suggests the resurgence of private investment as a panacea for rapid economic growth. This calls for the examination of the determinants of private investment in the literature. Recent works have, however, indicated that the lost option value of investment and effect of uncertainty can be large but empirical literature on this issue is scanty in developing countries. The book, thus, examines private investment decisions in Nigeria and provides improved understanding and more dynamic framework for private investment decisions in the wake of irreversibility and uncertainty. The book concludes that high levels of uncertainty indicators cause private investment to decline while irreversibility affects the timing of private investment spending in the short run and makes private investors less eager to invest thus impacting negative effect on investment spending. The book is relevant to academi...
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Private Investment in Nigeria
The paper investigates the determinants of aggregate private investment and determines the long-r... more The paper investigates the determinants of aggregate private investment and determines the long-run relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and aggregate private investment decisions in Nigeria between 1970 and 2006. Cointegration and error correction modeling techniques is adopted in the estimation of aggregate private investment models. The results show that private investment in Nigeria is significantly and positively affected by income, public investment and credit to private sector while it is negatively affected by real interest rates and the size of debt. The paper further reveals that inflation rate, exchange rate and fiscal deficit uncertainties are most detrimental to private investment recovery in Nigeria. The paper concludes that the key to private investment recovery and economic growth in Nigeria is in reducing the overall level of macroeconomic uncertainty.
Determinants and Effects of Corruption on Investment, General Price Level and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria
The paper examined the determinants and effects of corruption on private investment rates, genera... more The paper examined the determinants and effects of corruption on private investment rates, general price level and the rates of economic growth. The paper employed Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique as corruption, private investment rates, inflation rates and GDP growth rates were found to be I(0) series. Corruption index for Nigeria from the Transparency International (TI) organization indicated that Nigeria was among the highly corrupt countries of the world. The econometric results revealed that the poor quality of Nigerian leaderships (whether military or democrat), the low level of income (GDP), political and macroeconomic instability and the absence of value system were the major determinants of corruption in Nigeria. The paper also found that corruption impacted insignificant positive effect on the general price level while it impacted significant negative effects on economic growth at 5 per cent level of significance. The effect of corruption on investment rates is still ...
Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies
The paper examined the nexus between fiscal deficit and public debt in Nigeria. Public debt was d... more The paper examined the nexus between fiscal deficit and public debt in Nigeria. Public debt was disaggregated into domestic and external debt with a view to analyzing the causal relationship and relative effect of both categories of debt on fiscal deficit. Time series data were collected from Statistical Bulletins published by the Central Bank of Nigeria from 1970 to 2011. Except for inflation rate that was I(0), the unit root test results revealed stationarity of fiscal balance, public debt and its components, income, exchange rate and rate of interest series at their first difference; they are I(1) series. Pair-wise Granger causality results support bi-directional relationship between fiscal balance and public debt as well as its domestic component while causality run only from external debt to fiscal deficit. Johansen cointegration results also confirmed the existence of cointegrating relationships at 5 per cent level of significance. In addition, error correction estimates revea...
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Papers by Benjamin Ayodele Folorunso