Papers by Elias Hurmekoski
This report is a part of the Sustainable Bioenergy Solutions for Tomorrow (BEST) research program... more This report is a part of the Sustainable Bioenergy Solutions for Tomorrow (BEST) research program coordinated by FIBIC Ltd, and CLEEN Ltd. with funding from the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation, Tekes. The report in hand belongs to BEST research program’s Working Package 1 (WP1) “Bioenergy Scenarios and Strategies in Global and Local Scales”, and its Task 1.1 “Critical Synthesis of Existing Bioenergy Scenarios 2010–2050” and Subtask 1.1.1 “Critical Synthesis of Model Studies”. The purpose of this report is to give a critical literature review of some of the most relevant and mainstream scenario analyses concerning the use and assessments of biomass in industry and energy sectors, and its development up to 2050. The main focus is in forest biomass but also the field and other potential bioenergy raw materials are highlighted. The outcomes and observations of this report can be utilised in further model building and reassessment scenarios of forest bioenergy use. T...
Forest Policy and Economics, 2015
Recent significant changes in the sawnwood consumption per capita in some European countries rais... more Recent significant changes in the sawnwood consumption per capita in some European countries raise the questions, whether similar changes could happen in other countries as well, and if so, driven by what? The objective of this study is to identify potential factors affecting the level and growth rate of sawnwood consumption in Europe. Econometric models with sawnwood consumption per capita as the dependent variable are estimated for 17 European countries for the period of 1980-2012. The per capita form normalizes the data in regard to the size of the markets, and therefore makes the data more comparable across countries and over time. The results indicate that the sawnwood consumption per capita is related to construction activity, income, and prices. However, the results point to large regional differences in the drivers of sawnwood consumption across Europe. Moreover, in densely forested and scarcely populated regions, there have been structural changes that may have been caused by changes in the market share of sawnwood in the construction markets, which the models measuring economic activity are unable to capture.
Forest Policy and Economics, 2013
Outlook studies have long traditions in the forest sectorthey have been conducted regularly since... more Outlook studies have long traditions in the forest sectorthey have been conducted regularly since the 1950s. Until very recently, the approaches used in these studies have remained relatively unchanged. However, the global forest sector has been faced with major structural changes and its operating environment has become ever more complex and interlinked with other sectors. The aim of this article is to review the forest sector outlook approaches in face of these changes, and to analyze how well they have been able to capture and project the changes. Moreover, we raise the question of whether they seem informative enough for the purposes of today's decision makers and other stakeholders. The results indicate that the existing outlook studies have not been able to sufficiently capture the structural changes in global paper markets, and it may be that they have difficulties in considering the possible structural changes in other markets as well. In order to assess the changes occurring in the operating environment more systematically, and to better meet the needs of policy-makers and stakeholders, there are potential advantages in complementing the current modeling approach dominant in the forest sector with other methods from the field of foresight.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015
Keywords: Diffusion Engineered wood products Multi-story wood-frame construction Operational envi... more Keywords: Diffusion Engineered wood products Multi-story wood-frame construction Operational environment Scenario analysis Compared to many manufacturing industries, there have been few major improvements over the past few decades in the productivity, profitability, or the environmental impact of construction. However, driven by institutional changes, promotion campaigns, and technological development in the 1990s, novel industrial woodframe multi-story construction (WMC) practices have been emerging in some European countries. The aim of the study is to explore the WMC market potential in Europe by combining two complementary approaches: Top-down scenario analysis and bottom-up innovation diffusion analysis. The results show that the WMC diffusion is heavily dependent on the regulatory framework and the structure of the construction industry. The risk-averse nature of the construction value chain resisting the uptake of new practices appears to be a more significant hindrance for the future market potential of WMC, compared to the possible competition from alternative construction practices. It would require both increasing competition within the WMC sector and increasing co-operation between wood product suppliers and the construction sector to attract investments, to reduce costs, and to make the WMC practices more credible throughout the construction value chain.
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Papers by Elias Hurmekoski