Papers by Prof. Abu N A S S E R Khondaker
International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, 2014
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017
The world is experiencing a tremendous growth in transportation sector which is also prevalent in... more The world is experiencing a tremendous growth in transportation sector which is also prevalent in Saudi Arabia. This phenomenon results in an increasing demand for fossil fuel for both national and international transportation. This study presents the (i) analysis of the historical fossil fuel energy consumption trend, (ii) forecasted energy consumption using double exponential smoothing method, (iii) study of estimated and projected emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG), (iv) factors influencing GHG emissions, (v) potential mitigation measures, and (vi) mitigation initiatives to reduce GHG emissions from the road transportation sector of the Kingdom. This study revealed that the per capita fuel consumption in Saudi Arabia is increasing at higher rates in recent years compared to some other neighboring countries along with the consistent increase in number of cars and population growth. As a result, the domestic fuel consumption is growing significantly and the growth dynamics of GHG emissions is becoming quite challenging for planning, development, and implementation of appropriate mitigation measures. An integrated national effort with strong commitments from all the stakeholders is a strategic imperative for the Kingdom to ensure its rapid development and successful implementation of commendable national policy for reducing the emission of GHG, particularly from the road transportation sector. Success of the Kingdom's efforts to manage GHG emissions from the road transportation sector while maintaining its ambitious development stride and commitments to a stable global energy supply demands increased and comprehensive focus on vehicle efficiency, environment friendly fuels, and management of growing travel demand considering the specific socioeconomic characteristics.
Environmental Progress & Sustainable Energy, 2017
Socio‐economic variables including gross domestic product, population, and energy and electricity... more Socio‐economic variables including gross domestic product, population, and energy and electricity production are used in modeling and forecasting national energy demands of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. The proposed model features: (i) the nonlinear component of energy demand (removal of linear trend), (ii) application of double exponential smoothing method for input data projection, and (iii) genetic algorithm‐based artificial neural network (ANN) models. The proposed neuro‐genetic model performed very well for the three selected countries. The coefficient of determination and Willmott's index of agreement for the training and testing dataset are quite high whereas the mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error are quite low. The acceptable agreements between the observed energy consumption and the model predictions revealed its viability for the study of energy demand in the three selected member states of the energy ex...
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016
The largest contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the... more The largest contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the energy sector. More than 90% of the total GHG is emitted from this sector. The rapid rise of population, high rate of urbanization, rapid economic growth, and low energy cost increase the demand for energy. The consistently increasing trend of energy consumption and GHG emissions pose a challenge for the country. This study has (i) investigated the major sources of energy consumption and GHG emissions, (ii) analyzed the growth pattern of the source categories, (iii) forecasted the GHG emissions under the business-as-usual and the reformed scenarios, (iv) synthesized widely varied initiatives of the UAE in GHG emission mitigation, (v) highlighted the challenges in deploying renewable energy resources, and (vi) discussed on the possible GHG mitigation approaches. The findings of this study will contribute in preparing national GHG emissions inventory, investigating the dynamics of national GHG emissions with particular reference to the energy sector, developing possible future energy outlook scenarios, and selecting appropriate policy measures to mitigate GHG emissions.
The shipping industry has been operational on a global scale after the industrial revolution. Oce... more The shipping industry has been operational on a global scale after the industrial revolution. Oceangoing vessels transport major portion of trade to and from many regions. The developing regions account for the major share of marine transportation demand through the export of manufactured goods and the import of petroleum products, grains, and raw materials. Maritime activities could be considered as one of the important sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, which contributed around 3% to the global CO2 emissions in 2007. By 2050, GHG emission from international marine transportation is expected to increase by at least 50 percent over the 2007 levels. The countries responsible for significant contribution to GHG emissions from international bunkers include USA, Netherlands, UK, Spain, Germany, Japan, Belgium, France, Italy, and Greece. The analysis of geographical distribution of ship traffic revealed that approximately 70%, 44%, and 36% of ship traffic are within 200, 50, and ...
Sustainability
Air quality models simulate the atmospheric environment systems and provide increased domain know... more Air quality models simulate the atmospheric environment systems and provide increased domain knowledge and reliable forecasting. They provide early warnings to the population and reduce the number of measuring stations. Due to the complexity and non-linear behavior associated with air quality data, soft computing models became popular in air quality modeling (AQM). This study critically investigates, analyses, and summarizes the existing soft computing modeling approaches. Among the many soft computing techniques in AQM, this article reviews and discusses artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), evolutionary ANN and SVM, the fuzzy logic model, neuro-fuzzy systems, the deep learning model, ensemble, and other hybrid models. Besides, it sheds light on employed input variables, data processing approaches, and targeted objective functions during modeling. It was observed that many advanced, reliable, and self-organized soft computing models like functional network,...
Environment, Development and Sustainability
Mitigating climate change via initiatives such as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) an... more Mitigating climate change via initiatives such as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and renewable energy (RE) generation helps in reducing environmental pollution, increasing efficiency, and saving costs in the energy industry. Bangladesh recently formulated some policies and initiatives for reducing GHG emissions that have been increasing at an alarming rate lately, which are driven largely by economic growth, energy security, and local environmental concerns. However, little is known about the impacts of the existing policies and initiatives on curbing GHG emissions and promoting environmental sustainability, especially from the agriculture and energy sectors that contribute 44% and 39% to the country’s net emissions, respectively. This study, therefore, reviews the extent of GHG emissions in the country and analyzes the country’s key policies and initiatives for mitigating climate change and promoting environmental sustainability. The key finding is that despite the existence of a national energy policy and initiatives such as RE development, rational and efficient use of energy, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, clean development mechanism, international and private sector collaboration, GHG emissions are projected to continue to grow at high rates due to population growth, industrialization, energy consumption growth that outpace government initiatives to reduce emission levels. The paper concludes that good governance, behavioral transformation, and public awareness about climate change are vital steps for reducing GHG emissions and promoting environmental sustainability.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research
Environmental Science and Pollution Research
There is a growing focus on the role of renewable energy (RE) policies such as feed-in tariffs (F... more There is a growing focus on the role of renewable energy (RE) policies such as feed-in tariffs (FITs), renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), subsidies, incentives, and research and development in the global energy policy mix and in promoting environmental sustainability. Although most developed countries have well-formulated RE policies, in developing countries, such policies face many barriers. This study analyzes the policies, drivers, and barriers to RE deployment for fostering environmental sustainability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. In the GCC region, the need for economic diversification to reduce dependency on single resource, diminishing hydrocarbon reserve, loss of oil export revenue, climate change mitigation pledges, and abundant solar energy resource are the key drivers for diversifying energy sources to include RE. However, the apparent lack of consolidated policy framework for wide-scale RE utilization calls for a well-articulated policy to advance RE development in each member state. Although FIT and RPS approaches could be effective for initial deployment of small-scale RE projects, a competitive tendering and auctioning mechanisms are more suitable for large-scale projects. Whereas, developing effective energy codes could successfully promote RE deployment, the increased share of RE in energy supply would have synergistic impacts on the region. The GHG emissions avoidance expected to be achieved by the GCC countries will vary between 5 and 247 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030. The fulfillment of inspirational RE targets for 2030 would contribute in fulfilling climate change mitigation pledges, environmental sustainability, economic growth, and generating new jobs.
Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences
International Journal of Global Warming, Oct 13, 2014
International Journal of Global Warming, 2016
ARABIAN JOURNAL FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
CRC CRITICAL REV. IN ENVIRON. CONTROL
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Papers by Prof. Abu N A S S E R Khondaker