We study the estimation of conditional mean regression functions through the so-called subset-bas... more We study the estimation of conditional mean regression functions through the so-called subset-based kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). Instead of using one global kernel feature space, we project a target function into different localized kernel feature spaces at different parts of the sample space. Each localized kernel feature space reflects the relationship on a subset between the response and covariates more parsimoniously. When the observations are collected from a strictly stationary and weakly dependent process, the orthonormal eigenfunctions which span the kernel feature space are consistently estimated by implementing an eigenanalysis on the subset-based kernel Gram matrix, and the estimated eigenfunctions are then used to construct the estimation of the mean regression function. Under some regularity conditions, the developed estimator is shown to be uniformly consistent over the subset with a convergence rate faster than those of some well-known nonparametric estimation methods. In addition, we also discuss some generalizations of the KPCA approach, and consider using the same subset-based KPCA approach to estimate the conditional distribution 1
This paper studies the estimation of large dynamic covariance matrices with multiple conditioning... more This paper studies the estimation of large dynamic covariance matrices with multiple conditioning variables. We introduce an easy-to-implement semiparametric method to estimate each entry of the covariance matrix via model averaging marginal regression, and then apply a shrinkage technique to obtain the dynamic covariance matrix estimation. Under some regularity conditions, we derive the asymptotic properties for the proposed estimators including the uniform consistency with general convergence rates. We further consider extending our methodology to deal with the scenarios: (i) the number of conditioning variables is divergent as the sample size increases, and (ii) the large covariance matrix is conditionally sparse relative to contemporaneous market factors. We provide a simulation study that illustrates the finite-sample performance of the developed methodology. We also provide an application to financial portfolio choice from daily stock returns.
This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple non... more This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple nonstationary regressors using classic kernel smoothing methods to estimate the coefficient functions. Extending earlier work on nonstationary kernel regression to take account of practical features of the data, we allow the regressors to be cointegrated and to embody a mixture of stochastic and deterministic trends, complications which result in asymptotic degeneracy of the kernel-weighted signal matrix. To address these complications new local and global rotation techniques are introduced to transform the covariate space to accommodate multiple scenarios of induced degeneracy. Under certain regularity conditions we derive asymptotic results that differ substantially from existing kernel regression asymptotics, leading to new limit theory under multiple convergence rates. For the practically important case of endogenous nonstationary regressors we propose a fully-modified kernel estimator whose limit distribution theory corresponds to the prototypical pure (i.e., exogenous covariate) cointegration case, thereby facilitating inference using a generalized Wald-type test statistic. These results substantially generalize econometric estimation and testing techniques in the cointegration literature to accommodate time variation and complications of co-moving regressors. Finally an empirical illustration to aggregate US data on consumption, income, and interest rates is provided.
We obtain uniform consistency results for kernel-weighted sample covariances in a nonstationary m... more We obtain uniform consistency results for kernel-weighted sample covariances in a nonstationary multiple regression framework that allows for both fixed design and random design coefficient variation. In the fixed design case these nonparametric sample covariances have different uniform asymptotic rates depending on direction, a result that differs fundamentally from the random design and stationary cases. The uniform asymptotic rates derived exceed the corresponding rates in the stationary case and confirm the existence of uniform super-consistency. The modelling framework and convergence rates allow for endogeneity and thus broaden the practical econometric import of these results. As a specific application, we establish uniform consistency of nonparametric kernel estimators of the coefficient functions in nonlinear cointegration models with time varying coefficients or functional coefficients, and provide sharp convergence rates. For the fixed design models, in particular, there are two uniform convergence rates that apply in two different directions, both rates exceeding the usual rate in the stationary case.
Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in nonlinear statistical and econometric m... more Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in nonlinear statistical and econometric modelling. established the point wise asymptotic distribution (central limit theorem) for the local linear estimator of nonparametric regression function under the condition of near epoch dependence. We further investigate the uniform consistency of this estimator. The uniformly strong and weak consistencies with convergence rates for the local linear fitting are established under mild conditions. Furthermore, general results of uniform convergence rates for nonparametric kernel-based estimators are provided. Applications of our results to conditional variance function estimation and some economic time series models are also discussed. The results of this paper will be of widely potential interest in time series semiparametric modelling. JEL subject classifications: C13, C14, C22.
We study a semi-varying coefficient model where the regressors are generated by the multivariate ... more We study a semi-varying coefficient model where the regressors are generated by the multivariate unit root I(1) processes. The influence of the explanatory vectors on the response variable satisfies the semiparametric partially linear structure with the nonlinear component being functional coefficients. A semiparametric estimation methodology with the first-stage local polynomial smoothing is applied to estimate both the constant coefficients in the linear component and the functional coefficients in the nonlinear component. The asymptotic distribution theory for the proposed semiparametric estimators is established under some mild conditions, from which both the parametric and nonparametric estimators are shown to enjoy the well-known superconsistency property. Furthermore, a simulation study is conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of the developed methodology and results. JEL Classifications: C13, C14, C22.
In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a gen... more In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a general framework which includes both the sparse and dense longitudinal data cases. A semiparametric estimation method based on the combination of the local linear smoothing and generalized estimation equations (GEE) is introduced to estimate the two parameter vectors as well as the unknown link function. Under some mild conditions, we derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed parametric and nonparametric estimators in different scenarios, from which we find that the convergence rates and asymptotic variances of the proposed estimators for sparse longitudinal data would be substantially different from those for dense longitudinal data. We also discuss the estimation of the covariance (or weight) matrices involved in the semiparametric GEE method. Furthermore, we provide some numerical studies to illustrate our methodology and theory.
In this paper, we study the model selection and structure specification for the generalised semi-... more In this paper, we study the model selection and structure specification for the generalised semi-varying coefficient models (GSVCMs), where the number of potential covariates is allowed to be larger than the sample size. We first propose a penalised likelihood method with the LASSO penalty function to obtain the preliminary estimates of the functional coefficients. Then, using the quadratic approximation for the local log-likelihood function and the adaptive group LASSO penalty (or the local linear approximation of the group SCAD penalty) with the help of the preliminary estimation of the functional coefficients, we introduce a novel penalised weighted least squares procedure to select the significant covariates and identify the constant coefficients among the coefficients of the selected covariates, which could thus specify the semiparametric modelling structure. The developed model selection and structure specification approach not only inherits many nice statistical properties from the local maximum likelihood estimation and non-concave penalised likelihood method, but also computationally attractive thanks to the computational algorithm that is proposed to implement our method. Under some mild conditions, we establish the asymptotic properties for the proposed model selection and estimation procedure such as the sparsity and oracle property. We also conduct simulation studies to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed method, and finally apply the method to analyse a real data set, which leads to some interesting findings.
In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a gen... more In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a general framework which includes both the sparse and dense longitudinal data cases. A semiparametric estimation method based on the combination of the local linear smoothing and generalized estimation equations (GEE) is introduced to estimate the two parameter vectors as well as the unknown link function. Under some mild conditions, we derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed parametric and nonparametric estimators in different scenarios, from which we find that the convergence rates and asymptotic variances of the proposed estimators for sparse longitudinal data would be substantially different from those for dense longitudinal data. We also discuss the estimation of the covariance (or weight) matrices involved in the semiparametric GEE method. Furthermore, we provide some numerical studies to illustrate our methodology and theory.
We study the estimation of conditional mean regression functions through the so-called subset-bas... more We study the estimation of conditional mean regression functions through the so-called subset-based kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). Instead of using one global kernel feature space, we project a target function into different localized kernel feature spaces at different parts of the sample space. Each localized kernel feature space reflects the relationship on a subset between the response and covariates more parsimoniously. When the observations are collected from a strictly stationary and weakly dependent process, the orthonormal eigenfunctions which span the kernel feature space are consistently estimated by implementing an eigenanalysis on the subset-based kernel Gram matrix, and the estimated eigenfunctions are then used to construct the estimation of the mean regression function. Under some regularity conditions, the developed estimator is shown to be uniformly consistent over the subset with a convergence rate faster than those of some well-known nonparametric estimation methods. In addition, we also discuss some generalizations of the KPCA approach, and consider using the same subset-based KPCA approach to estimate the conditional distribution 1
This paper studies the estimation of large dynamic covariance matrices with multiple conditioning... more This paper studies the estimation of large dynamic covariance matrices with multiple conditioning variables. We introduce an easy-to-implement semiparametric method to estimate each entry of the covariance matrix via model averaging marginal regression, and then apply a shrinkage technique to obtain the dynamic covariance matrix estimation. Under some regularity conditions, we derive the asymptotic properties for the proposed estimators including the uniform consistency with general convergence rates. We further consider extending our methodology to deal with the scenarios: (i) the number of conditioning variables is divergent as the sample size increases, and (ii) the large covariance matrix is conditionally sparse relative to contemporaneous market factors. We provide a simulation study that illustrates the finite-sample performance of the developed methodology. We also provide an application to financial portfolio choice from daily stock returns.
This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple non... more This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple nonstationary regressors using classic kernel smoothing methods to estimate the coefficient functions. Extending earlier work on nonstationary kernel regression to take account of practical features of the data, we allow the regressors to be cointegrated and to embody a mixture of stochastic and deterministic trends, complications which result in asymptotic degeneracy of the kernel-weighted signal matrix. To address these complications new local and global rotation techniques are introduced to transform the covariate space to accommodate multiple scenarios of induced degeneracy. Under certain regularity conditions we derive asymptotic results that differ substantially from existing kernel regression asymptotics, leading to new limit theory under multiple convergence rates. For the practically important case of endogenous nonstationary regressors we propose a fully-modified kernel estimator whose limit distribution theory corresponds to the prototypical pure (i.e., exogenous covariate) cointegration case, thereby facilitating inference using a generalized Wald-type test statistic. These results substantially generalize econometric estimation and testing techniques in the cointegration literature to accommodate time variation and complications of co-moving regressors. Finally an empirical illustration to aggregate US data on consumption, income, and interest rates is provided.
We obtain uniform consistency results for kernel-weighted sample covariances in a nonstationary m... more We obtain uniform consistency results for kernel-weighted sample covariances in a nonstationary multiple regression framework that allows for both fixed design and random design coefficient variation. In the fixed design case these nonparametric sample covariances have different uniform asymptotic rates depending on direction, a result that differs fundamentally from the random design and stationary cases. The uniform asymptotic rates derived exceed the corresponding rates in the stationary case and confirm the existence of uniform super-consistency. The modelling framework and convergence rates allow for endogeneity and thus broaden the practical econometric import of these results. As a specific application, we establish uniform consistency of nonparametric kernel estimators of the coefficient functions in nonlinear cointegration models with time varying coefficients or functional coefficients, and provide sharp convergence rates. For the fixed design models, in particular, there are two uniform convergence rates that apply in two different directions, both rates exceeding the usual rate in the stationary case.
Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in nonlinear statistical and econometric m... more Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in nonlinear statistical and econometric modelling. established the point wise asymptotic distribution (central limit theorem) for the local linear estimator of nonparametric regression function under the condition of near epoch dependence. We further investigate the uniform consistency of this estimator. The uniformly strong and weak consistencies with convergence rates for the local linear fitting are established under mild conditions. Furthermore, general results of uniform convergence rates for nonparametric kernel-based estimators are provided. Applications of our results to conditional variance function estimation and some economic time series models are also discussed. The results of this paper will be of widely potential interest in time series semiparametric modelling. JEL subject classifications: C13, C14, C22.
We study a semi-varying coefficient model where the regressors are generated by the multivariate ... more We study a semi-varying coefficient model where the regressors are generated by the multivariate unit root I(1) processes. The influence of the explanatory vectors on the response variable satisfies the semiparametric partially linear structure with the nonlinear component being functional coefficients. A semiparametric estimation methodology with the first-stage local polynomial smoothing is applied to estimate both the constant coefficients in the linear component and the functional coefficients in the nonlinear component. The asymptotic distribution theory for the proposed semiparametric estimators is established under some mild conditions, from which both the parametric and nonparametric estimators are shown to enjoy the well-known superconsistency property. Furthermore, a simulation study is conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of the developed methodology and results. JEL Classifications: C13, C14, C22.
In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a gen... more In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a general framework which includes both the sparse and dense longitudinal data cases. A semiparametric estimation method based on the combination of the local linear smoothing and generalized estimation equations (GEE) is introduced to estimate the two parameter vectors as well as the unknown link function. Under some mild conditions, we derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed parametric and nonparametric estimators in different scenarios, from which we find that the convergence rates and asymptotic variances of the proposed estimators for sparse longitudinal data would be substantially different from those for dense longitudinal data. We also discuss the estimation of the covariance (or weight) matrices involved in the semiparametric GEE method. Furthermore, we provide some numerical studies to illustrate our methodology and theory.
In this paper, we study the model selection and structure specification for the generalised semi-... more In this paper, we study the model selection and structure specification for the generalised semi-varying coefficient models (GSVCMs), where the number of potential covariates is allowed to be larger than the sample size. We first propose a penalised likelihood method with the LASSO penalty function to obtain the preliminary estimates of the functional coefficients. Then, using the quadratic approximation for the local log-likelihood function and the adaptive group LASSO penalty (or the local linear approximation of the group SCAD penalty) with the help of the preliminary estimation of the functional coefficients, we introduce a novel penalised weighted least squares procedure to select the significant covariates and identify the constant coefficients among the coefficients of the selected covariates, which could thus specify the semiparametric modelling structure. The developed model selection and structure specification approach not only inherits many nice statistical properties from the local maximum likelihood estimation and non-concave penalised likelihood method, but also computationally attractive thanks to the computational algorithm that is proposed to implement our method. Under some mild conditions, we establish the asymptotic properties for the proposed model selection and estimation procedure such as the sparsity and oracle property. We also conduct simulation studies to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed method, and finally apply the method to analyse a real data set, which leads to some interesting findings.
In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a gen... more In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a general framework which includes both the sparse and dense longitudinal data cases. A semiparametric estimation method based on the combination of the local linear smoothing and generalized estimation equations (GEE) is introduced to estimate the two parameter vectors as well as the unknown link function. Under some mild conditions, we derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed parametric and nonparametric estimators in different scenarios, from which we find that the convergence rates and asymptotic variances of the proposed estimators for sparse longitudinal data would be substantially different from those for dense longitudinal data. We also discuss the estimation of the covariance (or weight) matrices involved in the semiparametric GEE method. Furthermore, we provide some numerical studies to illustrate our methodology and theory.
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