A primary goal of Earth system modelling is to improve understanding of the interactions and feed... more A primary goal of Earth system modelling is to improve understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between human decision making and biophysical processes. The nexus of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and the climate system is an important example. LULCC contributes to global and regional climate change, while climate affects the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and LULCC. However, at present, LULCC is poorly represented in global circulation models (GCMs). LULCC models that are explicit about human behaviour and decision-making processes have been developed at local to regional scales, but the principles of these approaches have not yet been applied to the global scale level in ways that deal adequately with both direct and indirect feedbacks from the climate system. In this article, we explore current knowledge about LULCC modelling and the interactions between LULCC, GCMs and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In doing so, we propose new ways forward for improving LULCC representations in Earth system models. We conclude that LULCC models need to better conceptualise the alternatives for upscaling from the local to global scale. This involves better representation of human agency, including processes such as learning, adaptation and agent evolution, formalising the role and emergence of governance structures, institutional arrangements and policy as endogenous processes and better theorising about the role of teleconnections and connectivity across global networks. Our analysis underlines the importance of observational data in global-scale assessments and the need for coordination in synthesising and assimilating available data.
Interest is growing in agent-based models of land-use and land-cover change (ABM/LUCC). Such mode... more Interest is growing in agent-based models of land-use and land-cover change (ABM/LUCC). Such models combine agent-based representations of the decision makers influencing a land-use system with a cellular landscape and are appropriate when complex dynamics are present in the system under study. This chapter reviews conceptual challenges related to integrating ABM/LUCC and geographic information systems (GIS) and progress to date
Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-... more Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model impl...
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2014
Land-use change in a market economy, particularly at the urban-rural fringe in North America, is ... more Land-use change in a market economy, particularly at the urban-rural fringe in North America, is shaped through land and housing markets. Although market activities are at the core of economic studies of land-use change, many market elements are neglected by coupled human-environment models. We scrutinized the effects of the level of detail of market representation using an abstract, agent-based model of land-use change. This model includes agents representing land buyers and sellers and their respective market-based decision-making behaviors. Our results show that although incorporating key market elements, particularly budget constraints and competitive bidding, in land-use models generally alters projected land-use patterns, their impacts differ significantly depending on the level of detail of market representation. Consistent with theories of land change, our research confirms that budget constraints can considerably reduce the projected quantity of land-use change. The effects of competitive bidding, however, are more complex and depend on buyers' budgets, their relative preferences for proximity versus open-space amenities, and the size of neighborhoods. Market competition might reduce or increase the quantity of land-use change and the degree of sprawl in the simulated landscapes. Because of the strong effects of market elements on resulting patterns, adequate representation of the structure of markets is important for capturing and characterizing the complexity inherent in coupled human-environment systems.
This paper outlines the nexus between mathematics content knowledge and pedagogical knowledge in ... more This paper outlines the nexus between mathematics content knowledge and pedagogical knowledge in developing pedagogical content knowledge. Increasing expectations about what students should know and be able to do, breakthroughs in research on how children learn, and the increasing diversity of the student population have put significant pressure on the knowledge and skills teachers must have to meet education goals
In this paper, we propose a strategy for the developing spatially-explicit testable empirical hyp... more In this paper, we propose a strategy for the developing spatially-explicit testable empirical hypotheses for agent-based models of land-use decisions (ABM/LUCC models). We argue that this development should be guided by the links between ABMs and complex systems and should therefore focus on emergent properties. Further, we argue that both landscape com- position and landscape pattern can be viewed as
Available online Keywords: Agent-based modelling Domain specific languages Graphical representati... more Available online Keywords: Agent-based modelling Domain specific languages Graphical representations Model communication Model comparison Model development Model design Model replication Standardised protocols
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2014
Urban land-use modeling methods have experienced substantial improvements in the last several dec... more Urban land-use modeling methods have experienced substantial improvements in the last several decades. With the advancement of urban land-use change theories and modeling techniques, a considerable number of models have been developed. The relatively young approach, agent-based modeling, provides urban land-use models with some new features and can help address the challenges faced by traditional models. Applications of agent-based models to study urban dynamics have increased steadily over the last twenty years. To offer a retrospective on the developments in agent-based models (ABMs) of urban residential choices, we review fifty-one relevant models that fall into three general categories: (i) urban land-use models based on classical theories; (ii) different stages of the urbanization process; and (iii) integrated agent-based and microsimulation models. We summarize and compare the main features of these fiftyone models within each category. This review focuses on three fundamental new features introduced byABMs. The first is agent heterogeneity with particular attention to the method of introducing heterogeneity in agents' attributes and behaviors. The second is the representation of land-market processes, namely preferences, resources constraints, competitive bidding, and endogenous relocation. The third is the method of measuring the extensive model outputs. In addition, we outline accompanying challenges to, and open questions for, incorporating these new features. We conclude that, by modeling agent heterogeneity and land markets, and by exploiting a much broader dimension of output, we will enhance our understanding of urban land-use change and are hopefully able to improve model fitness and robustness. Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: review of agent-based models" Ecological Modelling 229 25-36 Anas A, 1990, "Taste heterogeneity and urban spatial structure: the logit model and monocentric theory reconciled" Journal of Urban Economics 28 318-335
Department of Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, ... more Department of Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada, SK S7N 5A8 (corresponding author: phone: 306-966-8412; fax: 306-966-8413; e-mail: [email protected]). ... School of Planning, Faculty of ...
The HIV/AIDS pandemic threatens economic, social, and environmental sustainability throughout sub... more The HIV/AIDS pandemic threatens economic, social, and environmental sustainability throughout sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reports on a qualitative study exploring interrelationships between HIV/AIDS, labor availability, agricultural productivity, household resources, food consumption, and health status in rural southeastern Uganda. Respondents reported an increase in widow-and-orphan-headed households; labor shortages due to illness and caretaking; degradation of household resources from health-related expenses; loss of land tenure and assets following deaths, especially for widows and orphans; and changes in agricultural practices and productivity. Our study highlights a potential downward spiral of livelihood degradation for vulnerable households and suggests targeted interventions to improve sustainability.
Land-use systems are characterized by complex interactions between human decision-makers and thei... more Land-use systems are characterized by complex interactions between human decision-makers and their biophysical environment. Mismatches between the scale of human drivers and the impacts of human decisions potentially threaten the ecological sustainability of these systems. This article reviews sources of complexity in land-use systems, moving from the human decision level to human interactions to effects over space, time and scale. Selected challenges in modeling such systems and potential resolutions are discussed, including strategies to empiricize complex models and methods for linking models across human and natural systems. Illustrative examples from published literature and an ongoing research project focused on timber harvest and carbon sequestration are used throughout the paper. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of remaining challenges to modeling indirect and cross-scale linkages and of the potential utility of complex models of land systems.
Representing agent heterogeneity is one of the main reasons that agent-based models become increa... more Representing agent heterogeneity is one of the main reasons that agent-based models become increasingly popular in simulating the emergence of land-use, land-cover change and socioeconomic phenomena. However, the relationship between heterogeneous economic agents and the resultant landscape patterns and socioeconomic dynamics has not been systematically explored. In this paper, we present a stylized agent-based land market model, Land Use in eXurban Environments (LUXE), to study the effects of multidimensional agents' heterogeneity on the spatial and socioeconomic patterns of urban land use change under various market representations. We examined two sources of agent heterogeneity: budget heterogeneity, which imposes constraints on the affordability of land, and preference heterogeneity, which determines location choice. The effects of the two dimensions of agents' heterogeneity are systematically explored across different market representations by three experiments. Agents' heterogeneity exhibits a complex interplay with various forms of market institutions as indicated by macro-measures (landscape metrics, segregation index, and socioeconomic metrics). In general, budget heterogeneity has pronounced effect on socioeconomic results, while preference heterogeneity is highly pertinent to spatial outcomes. The relationship between agent heterogeneity and macro-measures becomes more complex when more land market mechanisms are represented. In other words, appropriately simulating agent heterogeneity plays an important role in guaranteeing the fidelity of replicating empirical land use change process.
Parker, DC and Sun, S. and Filatova, T. and Magliocca, N. and Huang, Q. and Brown, DG and Riolo, ... more Parker, DC and Sun, S. and Filatova, T. and Magliocca, N. and Huang, Q. and Brown, DG and Riolo, R. (2012) The implications of alternative developer decision-making strategies on land-use and land-cover in an agent-based land market model. In: International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software 'Managing Resources of a Limited Planet' , Sixth Biennial iEMSs Meeting, Leipzig, Germany. ... Full text not available from this repository. The author is invited to upload the full text of this publication.
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Jun 1, 2003
This article presents an overview of multi-agent system models of land-use/cover change (MAS/LUCC... more This article presents an overview of multi-agent system models of land-use/cover change (MAS/LUCC models). This special class of LUCC models combines a cellular landscape model with agent-based representations of decision making, integrating the two components through specification of interdependencies and feedbacks between agents and their environment. The authors review alternative LUCC modeling techniques and discuss the ways in which MAS/LUCC models may overcome some important limitations of ...
A primary goal of Earth system modelling is to improve understanding of the interactions and feed... more A primary goal of Earth system modelling is to improve understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between human decision making and biophysical processes. The nexus of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and the climate system is an important example. LULCC contributes to global and regional climate change, while climate affects the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and LULCC. However, at present, LULCC is poorly represented in global circulation models (GCMs). LULCC models that are explicit about human behaviour and decision-making processes have been developed at local to regional scales, but the principles of these approaches have not yet been applied to the global scale level in ways that deal adequately with both direct and indirect feedbacks from the climate system. In this article, we explore current knowledge about LULCC modelling and the interactions between LULCC, GCMs and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In doing so, we propose new ways forward for improving LULCC representations in Earth system models. We conclude that LULCC models need to better conceptualise the alternatives for upscaling from the local to global scale. This involves better representation of human agency, including processes such as learning, adaptation and agent evolution, formalising the role and emergence of governance structures, institutional arrangements and policy as endogenous processes and better theorising about the role of teleconnections and connectivity across global networks. Our analysis underlines the importance of observational data in global-scale assessments and the need for coordination in synthesising and assimilating available data.
Interest is growing in agent-based models of land-use and land-cover change (ABM/LUCC). Such mode... more Interest is growing in agent-based models of land-use and land-cover change (ABM/LUCC). Such models combine agent-based representations of the decision makers influencing a land-use system with a cellular landscape and are appropriate when complex dynamics are present in the system under study. This chapter reviews conceptual challenges related to integrating ABM/LUCC and geographic information systems (GIS) and progress to date
Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-... more Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model impl...
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2014
Land-use change in a market economy, particularly at the urban-rural fringe in North America, is ... more Land-use change in a market economy, particularly at the urban-rural fringe in North America, is shaped through land and housing markets. Although market activities are at the core of economic studies of land-use change, many market elements are neglected by coupled human-environment models. We scrutinized the effects of the level of detail of market representation using an abstract, agent-based model of land-use change. This model includes agents representing land buyers and sellers and their respective market-based decision-making behaviors. Our results show that although incorporating key market elements, particularly budget constraints and competitive bidding, in land-use models generally alters projected land-use patterns, their impacts differ significantly depending on the level of detail of market representation. Consistent with theories of land change, our research confirms that budget constraints can considerably reduce the projected quantity of land-use change. The effects of competitive bidding, however, are more complex and depend on buyers' budgets, their relative preferences for proximity versus open-space amenities, and the size of neighborhoods. Market competition might reduce or increase the quantity of land-use change and the degree of sprawl in the simulated landscapes. Because of the strong effects of market elements on resulting patterns, adequate representation of the structure of markets is important for capturing and characterizing the complexity inherent in coupled human-environment systems.
This paper outlines the nexus between mathematics content knowledge and pedagogical knowledge in ... more This paper outlines the nexus between mathematics content knowledge and pedagogical knowledge in developing pedagogical content knowledge. Increasing expectations about what students should know and be able to do, breakthroughs in research on how children learn, and the increasing diversity of the student population have put significant pressure on the knowledge and skills teachers must have to meet education goals
In this paper, we propose a strategy for the developing spatially-explicit testable empirical hyp... more In this paper, we propose a strategy for the developing spatially-explicit testable empirical hypotheses for agent-based models of land-use decisions (ABM/LUCC models). We argue that this development should be guided by the links between ABMs and complex systems and should therefore focus on emergent properties. Further, we argue that both landscape com- position and landscape pattern can be viewed as
Available online Keywords: Agent-based modelling Domain specific languages Graphical representati... more Available online Keywords: Agent-based modelling Domain specific languages Graphical representations Model communication Model comparison Model development Model design Model replication Standardised protocols
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2014
Urban land-use modeling methods have experienced substantial improvements in the last several dec... more Urban land-use modeling methods have experienced substantial improvements in the last several decades. With the advancement of urban land-use change theories and modeling techniques, a considerable number of models have been developed. The relatively young approach, agent-based modeling, provides urban land-use models with some new features and can help address the challenges faced by traditional models. Applications of agent-based models to study urban dynamics have increased steadily over the last twenty years. To offer a retrospective on the developments in agent-based models (ABMs) of urban residential choices, we review fifty-one relevant models that fall into three general categories: (i) urban land-use models based on classical theories; (ii) different stages of the urbanization process; and (iii) integrated agent-based and microsimulation models. We summarize and compare the main features of these fiftyone models within each category. This review focuses on three fundamental new features introduced byABMs. The first is agent heterogeneity with particular attention to the method of introducing heterogeneity in agents' attributes and behaviors. The second is the representation of land-market processes, namely preferences, resources constraints, competitive bidding, and endogenous relocation. The third is the method of measuring the extensive model outputs. In addition, we outline accompanying challenges to, and open questions for, incorporating these new features. We conclude that, by modeling agent heterogeneity and land markets, and by exploiting a much broader dimension of output, we will enhance our understanding of urban land-use change and are hopefully able to improve model fitness and robustness. Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: review of agent-based models" Ecological Modelling 229 25-36 Anas A, 1990, "Taste heterogeneity and urban spatial structure: the logit model and monocentric theory reconciled" Journal of Urban Economics 28 318-335
Department of Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, ... more Department of Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada, SK S7N 5A8 (corresponding author: phone: 306-966-8412; fax: 306-966-8413; e-mail: [email protected]). ... School of Planning, Faculty of ...
The HIV/AIDS pandemic threatens economic, social, and environmental sustainability throughout sub... more The HIV/AIDS pandemic threatens economic, social, and environmental sustainability throughout sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reports on a qualitative study exploring interrelationships between HIV/AIDS, labor availability, agricultural productivity, household resources, food consumption, and health status in rural southeastern Uganda. Respondents reported an increase in widow-and-orphan-headed households; labor shortages due to illness and caretaking; degradation of household resources from health-related expenses; loss of land tenure and assets following deaths, especially for widows and orphans; and changes in agricultural practices and productivity. Our study highlights a potential downward spiral of livelihood degradation for vulnerable households and suggests targeted interventions to improve sustainability.
Land-use systems are characterized by complex interactions between human decision-makers and thei... more Land-use systems are characterized by complex interactions between human decision-makers and their biophysical environment. Mismatches between the scale of human drivers and the impacts of human decisions potentially threaten the ecological sustainability of these systems. This article reviews sources of complexity in land-use systems, moving from the human decision level to human interactions to effects over space, time and scale. Selected challenges in modeling such systems and potential resolutions are discussed, including strategies to empiricize complex models and methods for linking models across human and natural systems. Illustrative examples from published literature and an ongoing research project focused on timber harvest and carbon sequestration are used throughout the paper. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of remaining challenges to modeling indirect and cross-scale linkages and of the potential utility of complex models of land systems.
Representing agent heterogeneity is one of the main reasons that agent-based models become increa... more Representing agent heterogeneity is one of the main reasons that agent-based models become increasingly popular in simulating the emergence of land-use, land-cover change and socioeconomic phenomena. However, the relationship between heterogeneous economic agents and the resultant landscape patterns and socioeconomic dynamics has not been systematically explored. In this paper, we present a stylized agent-based land market model, Land Use in eXurban Environments (LUXE), to study the effects of multidimensional agents' heterogeneity on the spatial and socioeconomic patterns of urban land use change under various market representations. We examined two sources of agent heterogeneity: budget heterogeneity, which imposes constraints on the affordability of land, and preference heterogeneity, which determines location choice. The effects of the two dimensions of agents' heterogeneity are systematically explored across different market representations by three experiments. Agents' heterogeneity exhibits a complex interplay with various forms of market institutions as indicated by macro-measures (landscape metrics, segregation index, and socioeconomic metrics). In general, budget heterogeneity has pronounced effect on socioeconomic results, while preference heterogeneity is highly pertinent to spatial outcomes. The relationship between agent heterogeneity and macro-measures becomes more complex when more land market mechanisms are represented. In other words, appropriately simulating agent heterogeneity plays an important role in guaranteeing the fidelity of replicating empirical land use change process.
Parker, DC and Sun, S. and Filatova, T. and Magliocca, N. and Huang, Q. and Brown, DG and Riolo, ... more Parker, DC and Sun, S. and Filatova, T. and Magliocca, N. and Huang, Q. and Brown, DG and Riolo, R. (2012) The implications of alternative developer decision-making strategies on land-use and land-cover in an agent-based land market model. In: International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software 'Managing Resources of a Limited Planet' , Sixth Biennial iEMSs Meeting, Leipzig, Germany. ... Full text not available from this repository. The author is invited to upload the full text of this publication.
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Jun 1, 2003
This article presents an overview of multi-agent system models of land-use/cover change (MAS/LUCC... more This article presents an overview of multi-agent system models of land-use/cover change (MAS/LUCC models). This special class of LUCC models combines a cellular landscape model with agent-based representations of decision making, integrating the two components through specification of interdependencies and feedbacks between agents and their environment. The authors review alternative LUCC modeling techniques and discuss the ways in which MAS/LUCC models may overcome some important limitations of ...
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