Papers by Danielken Molina
Economía, 2008
Chinese exports increasingly compete with Latin American and Caribbean products in world markets.... more Chinese exports increasingly compete with Latin American and Caribbean products in world markets.1 Competition in the US market is particu-larly relevant. The United States has been Latin America's most impor-tant trade partner throughout the postwar era. Trade with the ...
ABSTRACT Casual evidence suggests that multinational companies increasingly look for places with ... more ABSTRACT Casual evidence suggests that multinational companies increasingly look for places with adequate transport and logistics infrastructure to locate affiliates that participate in cross-border production sharing. Yet, there are no systematic empirical analyses examining how logistics infrastructure interacts with the location decisions made by multinationals. Most studies on the determinants of FDI address the issue of transportation-logistics by examining the impact of distance on the relevant outcome, but distance does not capture by itself the quality of the logistics systems in place. We overcome this shortcoming in the literature by embedding indicators of infrastructure into an empirical framework that examines whether countries with adequate logistics systems attract more vertical FDI and particularly in industries that are more dependent on logistics services. We find that logistics infrastructure positively impacts vertical FDI in addition to the impact typically found on distance. A change from the first quartile to the third quartile of the distribution of logistics infrastructure is associated with an average increase in the number of vertically-integrated subsidiaries equivalent to 29 percent.
Transport Costs are one of the most important sources of barriers to trade. Inspired by this conc... more Transport Costs are one of the most important sources of barriers to trade. Inspired by this concern, we use an ad-hoc empirical model to examine the possible determinants of transport costs. Using a country aggregate bilateral transport costs database for 1990, we replicate Limao and Venables (2001) and we find that the effect of their infrastructure index on transport costs
Revista de Economia del Rosario
Following Anderson and Wincoop (2004) we estimate the elasticity of substitution of the goods imp... more Following Anderson and Wincoop (2004) we estimate the elasticity of substitution of the goods imported by the U.S. market for the period comprehended between 1990 - 2003. Our estimates take advantage of the data on transport costs available at six digit commodity level of the U.S. import data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. We obtain two different estimates of the elasticity of substitution; one at the average aggregate level and a second one at the sectoral level. As expected, the estimates that take into account the endogeneity of transport costs are statistically different in one unit from the results obtained when we ignore the structure of transport costs. This difference is even higher when we compare the results obtained using the sectoral classification at the two digit level of the ISIC revision 2 classification.** En este artículo se presentan estimaciones de la elasticidad de sustitución de bienes importados al mercado de los EEUU en el periodo 1990{2003, siguiendo a...
In this paper we estimate the elasticity of substitution of US imports using detailed trade data ... more In this paper we estimate the elasticity of substitution of US imports using detailed trade data over the 1990-2003 period. We use a two-stage least squares framework in order to identify the elasticity parameter of interest. Our elasticity estimates for aggregate imports are in line with those of other recent studies. Moreover, our methodology allows us to provide elasticity estimates at the sectoral level. We use the elasticity estimates to assess the extent to which Latin American and Chinese goods compete in the U.S. market by providing forecasts of how alternative policy scenarios may affect exports to the United States. We consider the following scenarios: (i) currency revaluation in China; (ii) elimination of US tariffs on Latin American exports under a hemispheric free trade agreement; and (iii) the elimination of quotas on apparel and textile exports under the Multi-Fiber Agreement. We find that a 20-percent appreciation of the renminbi reduces Chinese exports to the United...
In this paper we use Colombian manufacturing data on exports and external financing for the period... more In this paper we use Colombian manufacturing data on exports and external financing for the period 1998 − 2006 to estimate the credit elasticity of exports. We use bank-firm linked data to construct a supply side instrument for a manufacturer’s demand of credit, which we use to address the reverse causality between a manufacturer’s export revenue and its demand for credit. We find that access to credit produces a significant increase on a manufacturer’s export revenue explained by the positive effect of credit on an exporter’s market reach - number of destinations -. Across manufacturers the effect of credit on a manufacturer’s export revenue varies by size. While medium sized manufacturers use credit to increase their market reach, market penetration and product mix, large manufacturers only use credit to increase their market reach. Small manufacturers do not seem to benefit from bank credit.
Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)
Exporters differ considerably in terms of export-market participation over time and employment si... more Exporters differ considerably in terms of export-market participation over time and employment size. But this marked diversity among exporters is not reflected in their workforce composition regarding commonly observed worker skills or occupations. Using Brazilian linked employer-employee data, we turn to a typically unknown worker characteristic: a worker's prior experience at other exporters. We show that expected export status, predicted with current destination-country trade instruments, leads firms to prepare their workforce by hiring workers from other exporters. Hiring away exporter workers is associated with both a wider subsequent reach of destinations and a deeper market penetration at the poaching firm, but only with reduced market penetration at the firm losing the worker. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that expected export-market access exerts a labor demand shock, for which exporters actively prepare with selective hiring, and with the idea that a ...
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Driven by declining import tariffs, poor infrastructure and increasing specialization in transpor... more Driven by declining import tariffs, poor infrastructure and increasing specialization in transport-intensive goods, transport costs are arguably today’s most formidable obstacle to Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) trade. However, there is little knowledge available on their trade impacts in the region, both behind and beyond the border. This study is part of a broader IDB research effort to fill this gap and its objective is to assess the role of domestic transport costs (i.e. “factory-to-port”) in shaping the level and diversification of both the countries’ overall and subnational exports. The subnational dimension is particularly important given that LAC’s exports are heavily concentrated in a few municipalities. Resorting to a number of empirical strategies and using a novel database --which covers origin-destination and transport costs of municipal exports in five of the largest countries in the region (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) -- the study shows that low...
This chapter seeks to shed light on the role of domestic transport costs in shaping these outcome... more This chapter seeks to shed light on the role of domestic transport costs in shaping these outcomes through a detailed analysis of the impact of these costs on the regional distribution of exports. As discussed in this volume’s introduction, this analysis had to overcome both empirical and theoretical challenges. For the first, it proved difficult to find reliable data on transport costs from factory gates to customs. As regards the second, we were challenged by the direction of the causality: transport costs are likely to have an impact on exports from a given municipality, but the argument also runs in the other direction: scale economies arising from the volume of exports may also affect the costs of domestic transportation. We address these challenges by building and analyzing a georeferenced, firm-level dataset that provides reliable estimates of the costs of shipping products from factory gates to customs. We use this data to estimate the impact of domestic transport costs on m...
Este trabajo estima la proporción del ingreso que se destina al pago del IVA al implementar ocho ... more Este trabajo estima la proporción del ingreso que se destina al pago del IVA al implementar ocho estructuras tributarias utilizando métodos no paramétricos, a partir de la Encuesta de Ingresos y Gastos de 1994. La estructura tributaria más neutral es la definida por la Ley 633 de 2000. Se concluye que cualquier tasa gravable que se imponga sobre los alimentos
Journal of International Economics, 2014
ABSTRACT Casual evidence suggests that multinational companies increasingly look for places with ... more ABSTRACT Casual evidence suggests that multinational companies increasingly look for places with adequate transport and logistics infrastructure to locate affiliates that participate in cross-border production sharing. Yet, there are no systematic empirical analyses examining how logistics infrastructure interacts with the location decisions made by multinationals. Most studies on the determinants of FDI address the issue of transportation-logistics by examining the impact of distance on the relevant outcome, but distance does not capture by itself the quality of the logistics systems in place. We overcome this shortcoming in the literature by embedding indicators of infrastructure into an empirical framework that examines whether countries with adequate logistics systems attract more vertical FDI and particularly in industries that are more dependent on logistics services. We find that logistics infrastructure positively impacts vertical FDI in addition to the impact typically found on distance. A change from the first quartile to the third quartile of the distribution of logistics infrastructure is associated with an average increase in the number of vertically-integrated subsidiaries equivalent to 29 percent.
Development Centre Studies, 2007
Page 1. 1 Competing with the Dragon: Latin American and Chinese Exports to the US Market By Ernes... more Page 1. 1 Competing with the Dragon: Latin American and Chinese Exports to the US Market By Ernesto López-Córdova, Alejandro Micco and Danielken Molina* 4 May 2006 1 Introduction The recent emergence of China in the international economic scene is a ...
EDUCATION FOR ALL AND MULTIGRADE TEACHING, 2006
This chapter presents the results of research on the impact of Escuela Nueva methodologies on the... more This chapter presents the results of research on the impact of Escuela Nueva methodologies on the peaceful social interaction of children. Three main research questions are addressed. First, does the Escuela Nueva schooling methodology have an impact on the peaceful social interaction of children? Second, do the perceptions and behaviour of families and the community change as a result of the influence of schooling methodologies? Third, what f long-term impact does Escuela Nueva have on selected aspects of democratic and peaceful social interaction behaviours? The chapter will address these questions in three stages. First, it briefly describes Escuela Nueva N N methodologies and reviews previous evaluations of cognitive and behavioural achievements. Second, it describes methods, data bases and statistical procedures used to address the research questions. Third, it presents the results of the analyses in relation to the three main questions.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT This paper estimates household consumption levels reached after analyzing the effect of ... more ABSTRACT This paper estimates household consumption levels reached after analyzing the effect of eight VAT structures. The exercise used the Colombian Income and Consumption Survey of 1994. After analyzing the effects of the eight VAT structures over consumption, we find that the 2000 VAT structure is neutral. Food consumption trend is always regressive regardless of the tax rate, but this effect can be neutralized by the progressive consumption trend of other goods.
La mano visible de China en América Latina, 2009
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Papers by Danielken Molina