Papers by Ciências Actuariais
The purpose of this dissertation is to understand and measure the risk associated with the final ... more The purpose of this dissertation is to understand and measure the risk associated with the final benefit provided by a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. The idea is to use this risk analysis as a support to take, opportunately, the right decisions in order to provide an adequate pension to the plan beneficiaries in the post retirement period. This dissertation establishes a simple and methodological approach to analyse the risk of stochastic pension plan design (for defined contribution plans). For this type of pension plans, the risk is defined by the probability of the benefits provided (by the DC plan)-measured through the replacement rate-being below the level initially stipulated. Therefore, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodology is used as the risk measure, since it allows to determine the replacement rate values that can be guarenteed for a specified confidence level. The stochastic pension plan design model consists of some submodels (for salaries, asset returns, mortality) and several parameters-such as the contribution rate, the accumulation period, the asset-alocation strategies. Concernig the asset returns models (which is, in fact, the core of the stochastic pension plan design model), it was used two stochastic asset models-the Wilkie model and the Hibbert Model. Important conclusions are drawn from the structure beneath both models and their influence on the final results (mainly on the replacement rates volatility). Another important conclusion drawn from this dissertation is related to the comparison between a deterministic approach and a stochastic approach and how the first one fails to give a proper measure of the risk involved in defined contribution plans.
This dissertation aims to contribute with a conceptual model for strengthening vital statistics o... more This dissertation aims to contribute with a conceptual model for strengthening vital statistics on the Information System in use of the Ministry of Justice and the National Institute of Statistics of Mozambique. The Ministry of Justice is responsible for all the facts about the Civil Registration of the country, from the birth of an individual to his death while the National Institute of Statistics is a department responsible for production, management, data processing and dissemination of official statistical information. Despite the existence of these two organs, the country still lacks an effective information system, that is, a system that ensures the efficiency and effectiveness of statistical information on births and deaths. As this information is from various sources, like: the civil registration office, Regular Posts of Civil Registration, Mobile Brigades, Mozambique Consulates abroad, etc. The Vital Statistics System in use still doesn´t have a capacity to homogenize the statistical data from these sources, this fact leads to an inconsistency of information about vital events and therefore it is provided to potential users, the general public, unreliable information, on the other hand, because of the inconsistency of the system (to be manual) there are difficulties in access to information about civil registration in the country, however, it takes the users having to use secondary and informal sources. Therefore, with this study the author intends fundamentally to adapt the portuguese model on vital statistics to the mozambican´s reality.
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Papers by Ciências Actuariais