We integrate key insights from the early childhood literature into the quantity-quality model. In... more We integrate key insights from the early childhood literature into the quantity-quality model. In theory the adverse effect of shocks to family size diminishes with birth spacing for children already born and rises for newborn siblings. The effect on the older child therefore provides a credible proxy for the quantity-quality trade-off only at short spacing intervals. Using matched mother-child data from NLSY79, we find robust empirical support for this proposition. Cognitive scores of children already born drop following shocks to family size but only when siblings arrive at younger ages. Family resources also matter. The cognitive scores of children drop only in households in which the mother has below median AFQT score.
Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panels linked to Social Security earnings... more Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panels linked to Social Security earnings records, we examine the earnings gap associated with marriage for cohorts of women born between 1936 and 1975. We compare ordinary least squares and fixed-effect estimates. We find that among women who work, the marital earnings gap has all but disappeared in fixed-effects estimates for recent birth cohorts. In fact, among women without children, married women earn more than single women, implying a diminished role for specialization when children are not present. In contrast, the motherhood earnings gap remains large even for recent birth cohorts.
Marriage, Employment and Inequality of Women's Lifetime Earned Income Evidence from Survey Responses
Using Current Population Surveys and Survey of Income and Program Participation data matched to S... more Using Current Population Surveys and Survey of Income and Program Participation data matched to Social Security earnings records, we summarize changes in marital histories for different birth cohorts of women and project the associated changes in women’s own lifetime earnings and in spousal earnings. We find that the gap in lifetime earnings between married and single women appears to have essentially closed for less educated women while a small differential still exists for more educated women. The earnings gap across education categories has increased rapidly in terms of women’s own lifetime earnings. The level of earnings inequality across education categories is higher when marriage and husbands’ earnings is taken into account although the increase is less pronounced. Lifetime earnings of married collegeeducated women diverged most dramatically from those of less educated single women. JEL Classification: J12, J16, J22, J31 Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. This research was supported by the U.S. Social Security Administration through grant #5 RRC08098400-03-00 to the National Bureau of Economic Research as part of the SSA Retirement Research Consortium. The findings and conclusions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of SSA, any agency of the Federal Government, or the NBER.
We examine changes across birth cohorts in marriage patterns and the earnings differentials assoc... more We examine changes across birth cohorts in marriage patterns and the earnings differentials associated with marriage using data from a series of Survey of Income and Program Participation panels linked to administrative data on earnings. We find that marriage has become increasingly positively selected on education and earnings potential. Among women, selection into marriage has reversed sign, with the most educated women switching from being the least likely to be married to being the most likely. While men with the highest earnings potential have always been more likely to be married, this relationship has become even more pronounced. Changing selection into marriage is entirely responsible for the observed decline in marriage penalty for women in the cross section. In fixed-effects regressions, the earnings penalty continues to exist even for the most recent cohorts, consistent with specialization after marriage. For men, we find that the marriage premium actually increases for m...
PRELIMINARY VERSION Abstract: Using three panel datasets (the matched CPS, the SIPP, and the newl... more PRELIMINARY VERSION Abstract: Using three panel datasets (the matched CPS, the SIPP, and the newly available Longitudinal Employment and Household Dynamics (LEHD) data), we examine trends in male earnings instability in recent decades. In contrast to several papers that find a recent upward trend in earnings instability using the PSID data, we find that earnings instability has been remarkably stable in the 1990s and the 2000s. We find that job changing rates remained relatively constant casting doubt on the importance of labor market “churning. ” We find some evidence that earnings instability increased among job stayers which lends credence to the view that greater reliance on incentive pay increased instability of worker pay. We also find an offsetting decrease in earnings instability among job changers due largely to declining unemployment associated with job changes. One caveat to our findings is that we focus on men who have positive earnings in two adjacent years and thus ign...
Using the 1964-95 March Current Population Surveys and the 1940-90 Census, this paper examines th... more Using the 1964-95 March Current Population Surveys and the 1940-90 Census, this paper examines the relationship between female employment growth and changes in labor demand. Specifically, the authors examine whether industrial change and changes in labor demand can account for both the acceleration and deceleration of female employment growth across the decades as well as the pattern of biased growth in favor of more skilled women. They find that labor demand proxies are successful in accounting for the pattern of biased growth but are less successful in accounting for the overall acceleration of female employment, particularly in the 1970s.
Using matched March Current Population Surveys, we examine labor market transitions of husbands a... more Using matched March Current Population Surveys, we examine labor market transitions of husbands and wives. We find that the "added-worker effect"-the greater propensity of nonparticipating wives to enter the labor force when their husbands exit employmentis still important among a subset of couples, but that the overall value of marriage as a risk-sharing arrangement has diminished because of the greater positive co-movement of employment within couples. While positive assortative matching on education did increase over time, this shift in the composition of couple types alone cannot account for the increased positive correlation.
This paper examines the importance of labor market dropouts in assessing black-white wage converg... more This paper examines the importance of labor market dropouts in assessing black-white wage convergence by introducing a simple method of imputing wages to non-workers. When non-workers are included in the calculations, real wage growth for prime age black men over the 1969-1998 period is reduced approximately 40 percent while black-white wage convergence is reduced by approximately one-third. The paper finds that in addition to falling employment rates, an equally important source of bias is the growing gap between wages of workers and potential wages of non-workers.
We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle flu... more We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics among unemployment rates disaggregated for seven age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find that demographic adjustments can account for a great deal of the secular change in the unemployment rate, particularly the abrupt increase in the 1970s and 1980s and the subsequent decrease.
Using U.S. time diary data we construct occupation-level measures of coordinated work schedules b... more Using U.S. time diary data we construct occupation-level measures of coordinated work schedules based on the concentration of hours worked during peak hours of the day. A higher degree of coordination is associated with higher wages but also a larger gender wage gap. In the data women with children allocate more time to household care and are penalized by missing work during peak hours. An equilibrium model with these key elements generates a gender wage gap of 6.6 percent or approximately 30 percent of the wage gap observed among married men and women with children. If the need for coordination is equalized across occupations and set to a relatively low value (i.e. Health care support), the gender gap would fall by more than half to 2.7 percent.
Ten states, beginning with Texas and California in 2001, have passed laws permitting undocumented... more Ten states, beginning with Texas and California in 2001, have passed laws permitting undocumented students to pay the in-state tuition rate -rather than the more expensive out-ofstate tuition rate -at public universities and colleges. We exploit state-time variation in the passage of the laws to evaluate the effects of these laws on the educational outcomes of Hispanic childhood immigrants who are not U.S. citizens. Specifically, through the use of individual-level data from the 2001-2005 American Community Surveys supplemented by the 2000 U.S. Census, we estimate the effect of the laws on the probability of attending college for 18-to 24-year-olds who have a high school degree and the probability of dropping out of high school for 16-to 17-year-olds. We find some evidence suggestive of a positive effect of the laws on the college attendance of older Mexican men, although estimated effects of the laws in general are not significantly different from zero. We discuss various reasons f...
We estimate the impact of increases in family size on childhood and adult outcomes using matched ... more We estimate the impact of increases in family size on childhood and adult outcomes using matched mother-child data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. We find that families face a substantial quantity-quality trade-off: increases in family size decrease parental investment, decrease childhood cognitive abilities, and increase behavioral problems. The negative effects on cognitive abilities are much larger for girls while the detrimental effects on behavior are larger for boys. We also find evidence of heterogeneous effects by mother's AFQT score, with the negative effects on cognitive scores being much larger for children of mothers with low AFQT scores.
Ten states, beginning with Texas and California in 2001, have passed laws permitting undocumented... more Ten states, beginning with Texas and California in 2001, have passed laws permitting undocumented students to pay the in-state tuition rate-rather than the more expensive out-of-state tuition rate-at public universities and colleges. We exploit state-time variation in the passage of the laws to evaluate the effects of these laws on the educational outcomes of Hispanic childhood immigrants who are not U.S. citizens. Specifically, through the use of individual-level data from the 2001-2005 American Community Surveys supplemented by the 2000 U.S. Census, we estimate the effect of the laws on the probability of attending college for 18-to 24-year-olds who have a high school degree and the probability of dropping out of high school for 16-to 17-year-olds. We find some evidence suggestive of a positive effect of the laws on the college attendance of older Mexican men, although estimated effects of the laws in general are not significantly different from zero.
We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys that link an individual woman's fe... more We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys that link an individual woman's fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allows us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility. In contrast to Young (2005), however, we find that local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on non-infected women's fertility.
The labor force participation rate in the United States increased almost continuously for two-and... more The labor force participation rate in the United States increased almost continuously for two-and-a-half decades after the mid-1960s, pausing only briefly during economic downturns. The pace of growth slowed considerably during the 1990s, however, and after reaching a record high of 67.3 percent in the first quarter of 2000, participation had declined by 1.5 percentage points by 2005. This paper reviews the social and demographic trends that contributed to the movements in the labor force participation rate in the second half of the twentieth century. It also examines the manner in which developments in the 2000s reflect a break from past trends and considers implications for the future.
Die ZBW räumt Ihnen als Nutzerin/Nutzer das unentgeltliche, räumlich unbeschränkte und zeitlich a... more Die ZBW räumt Ihnen als Nutzerin/Nutzer das unentgeltliche, räumlich unbeschränkte und zeitlich auf die Dauer des Schutzrechts beschränkte einfache Recht ein, das ausgewählte Werk im Rahmen der unter
We integrate key insights from the early childhood literature into the quantity-quality model. In... more We integrate key insights from the early childhood literature into the quantity-quality model. In theory the adverse effect of shocks to family size diminishes with birth spacing for children already born and rises for newborn siblings. The effect on the older child therefore provides a credible proxy for the quantity-quality trade-off only at short spacing intervals. Using matched mother-child data from NLSY79, we find robust empirical support for this proposition. Cognitive scores of children already born drop following shocks to family size but only when siblings arrive at younger ages. Family resources also matter. The cognitive scores of children drop only in households in which the mother has below median AFQT score.
Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panels linked to Social Security earnings... more Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panels linked to Social Security earnings records, we examine the earnings gap associated with marriage for cohorts of women born between 1936 and 1975. We compare ordinary least squares and fixed-effect estimates. We find that among women who work, the marital earnings gap has all but disappeared in fixed-effects estimates for recent birth cohorts. In fact, among women without children, married women earn more than single women, implying a diminished role for specialization when children are not present. In contrast, the motherhood earnings gap remains large even for recent birth cohorts.
Marriage, Employment and Inequality of Women's Lifetime Earned Income Evidence from Survey Responses
Using Current Population Surveys and Survey of Income and Program Participation data matched to S... more Using Current Population Surveys and Survey of Income and Program Participation data matched to Social Security earnings records, we summarize changes in marital histories for different birth cohorts of women and project the associated changes in women’s own lifetime earnings and in spousal earnings. We find that the gap in lifetime earnings between married and single women appears to have essentially closed for less educated women while a small differential still exists for more educated women. The earnings gap across education categories has increased rapidly in terms of women’s own lifetime earnings. The level of earnings inequality across education categories is higher when marriage and husbands’ earnings is taken into account although the increase is less pronounced. Lifetime earnings of married collegeeducated women diverged most dramatically from those of less educated single women. JEL Classification: J12, J16, J22, J31 Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. This research was supported by the U.S. Social Security Administration through grant #5 RRC08098400-03-00 to the National Bureau of Economic Research as part of the SSA Retirement Research Consortium. The findings and conclusions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of SSA, any agency of the Federal Government, or the NBER.
We examine changes across birth cohorts in marriage patterns and the earnings differentials assoc... more We examine changes across birth cohorts in marriage patterns and the earnings differentials associated with marriage using data from a series of Survey of Income and Program Participation panels linked to administrative data on earnings. We find that marriage has become increasingly positively selected on education and earnings potential. Among women, selection into marriage has reversed sign, with the most educated women switching from being the least likely to be married to being the most likely. While men with the highest earnings potential have always been more likely to be married, this relationship has become even more pronounced. Changing selection into marriage is entirely responsible for the observed decline in marriage penalty for women in the cross section. In fixed-effects regressions, the earnings penalty continues to exist even for the most recent cohorts, consistent with specialization after marriage. For men, we find that the marriage premium actually increases for m...
PRELIMINARY VERSION Abstract: Using three panel datasets (the matched CPS, the SIPP, and the newl... more PRELIMINARY VERSION Abstract: Using three panel datasets (the matched CPS, the SIPP, and the newly available Longitudinal Employment and Household Dynamics (LEHD) data), we examine trends in male earnings instability in recent decades. In contrast to several papers that find a recent upward trend in earnings instability using the PSID data, we find that earnings instability has been remarkably stable in the 1990s and the 2000s. We find that job changing rates remained relatively constant casting doubt on the importance of labor market “churning. ” We find some evidence that earnings instability increased among job stayers which lends credence to the view that greater reliance on incentive pay increased instability of worker pay. We also find an offsetting decrease in earnings instability among job changers due largely to declining unemployment associated with job changes. One caveat to our findings is that we focus on men who have positive earnings in two adjacent years and thus ign...
Using the 1964-95 March Current Population Surveys and the 1940-90 Census, this paper examines th... more Using the 1964-95 March Current Population Surveys and the 1940-90 Census, this paper examines the relationship between female employment growth and changes in labor demand. Specifically, the authors examine whether industrial change and changes in labor demand can account for both the acceleration and deceleration of female employment growth across the decades as well as the pattern of biased growth in favor of more skilled women. They find that labor demand proxies are successful in accounting for the pattern of biased growth but are less successful in accounting for the overall acceleration of female employment, particularly in the 1970s.
Using matched March Current Population Surveys, we examine labor market transitions of husbands a... more Using matched March Current Population Surveys, we examine labor market transitions of husbands and wives. We find that the "added-worker effect"-the greater propensity of nonparticipating wives to enter the labor force when their husbands exit employmentis still important among a subset of couples, but that the overall value of marriage as a risk-sharing arrangement has diminished because of the greater positive co-movement of employment within couples. While positive assortative matching on education did increase over time, this shift in the composition of couple types alone cannot account for the increased positive correlation.
This paper examines the importance of labor market dropouts in assessing black-white wage converg... more This paper examines the importance of labor market dropouts in assessing black-white wage convergence by introducing a simple method of imputing wages to non-workers. When non-workers are included in the calculations, real wage growth for prime age black men over the 1969-1998 period is reduced approximately 40 percent while black-white wage convergence is reduced by approximately one-third. The paper finds that in addition to falling employment rates, an equally important source of bias is the growing gap between wages of workers and potential wages of non-workers.
We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle flu... more We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics among unemployment rates disaggregated for seven age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find that demographic adjustments can account for a great deal of the secular change in the unemployment rate, particularly the abrupt increase in the 1970s and 1980s and the subsequent decrease.
Using U.S. time diary data we construct occupation-level measures of coordinated work schedules b... more Using U.S. time diary data we construct occupation-level measures of coordinated work schedules based on the concentration of hours worked during peak hours of the day. A higher degree of coordination is associated with higher wages but also a larger gender wage gap. In the data women with children allocate more time to household care and are penalized by missing work during peak hours. An equilibrium model with these key elements generates a gender wage gap of 6.6 percent or approximately 30 percent of the wage gap observed among married men and women with children. If the need for coordination is equalized across occupations and set to a relatively low value (i.e. Health care support), the gender gap would fall by more than half to 2.7 percent.
Ten states, beginning with Texas and California in 2001, have passed laws permitting undocumented... more Ten states, beginning with Texas and California in 2001, have passed laws permitting undocumented students to pay the in-state tuition rate -rather than the more expensive out-ofstate tuition rate -at public universities and colleges. We exploit state-time variation in the passage of the laws to evaluate the effects of these laws on the educational outcomes of Hispanic childhood immigrants who are not U.S. citizens. Specifically, through the use of individual-level data from the 2001-2005 American Community Surveys supplemented by the 2000 U.S. Census, we estimate the effect of the laws on the probability of attending college for 18-to 24-year-olds who have a high school degree and the probability of dropping out of high school for 16-to 17-year-olds. We find some evidence suggestive of a positive effect of the laws on the college attendance of older Mexican men, although estimated effects of the laws in general are not significantly different from zero. We discuss various reasons f...
We estimate the impact of increases in family size on childhood and adult outcomes using matched ... more We estimate the impact of increases in family size on childhood and adult outcomes using matched mother-child data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. We find that families face a substantial quantity-quality trade-off: increases in family size decrease parental investment, decrease childhood cognitive abilities, and increase behavioral problems. The negative effects on cognitive abilities are much larger for girls while the detrimental effects on behavior are larger for boys. We also find evidence of heterogeneous effects by mother's AFQT score, with the negative effects on cognitive scores being much larger for children of mothers with low AFQT scores.
Ten states, beginning with Texas and California in 2001, have passed laws permitting undocumented... more Ten states, beginning with Texas and California in 2001, have passed laws permitting undocumented students to pay the in-state tuition rate-rather than the more expensive out-of-state tuition rate-at public universities and colleges. We exploit state-time variation in the passage of the laws to evaluate the effects of these laws on the educational outcomes of Hispanic childhood immigrants who are not U.S. citizens. Specifically, through the use of individual-level data from the 2001-2005 American Community Surveys supplemented by the 2000 U.S. Census, we estimate the effect of the laws on the probability of attending college for 18-to 24-year-olds who have a high school degree and the probability of dropping out of high school for 16-to 17-year-olds. We find some evidence suggestive of a positive effect of the laws on the college attendance of older Mexican men, although estimated effects of the laws in general are not significantly different from zero.
We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys that link an individual woman's fe... more We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys that link an individual woman's fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allows us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility. In contrast to Young (2005), however, we find that local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on non-infected women's fertility.
The labor force participation rate in the United States increased almost continuously for two-and... more The labor force participation rate in the United States increased almost continuously for two-and-a-half decades after the mid-1960s, pausing only briefly during economic downturns. The pace of growth slowed considerably during the 1990s, however, and after reaching a record high of 67.3 percent in the first quarter of 2000, participation had declined by 1.5 percentage points by 2005. This paper reviews the social and demographic trends that contributed to the movements in the labor force participation rate in the second half of the twentieth century. It also examines the manner in which developments in the 2000s reflect a break from past trends and considers implications for the future.
Die ZBW räumt Ihnen als Nutzerin/Nutzer das unentgeltliche, räumlich unbeschränkte und zeitlich a... more Die ZBW räumt Ihnen als Nutzerin/Nutzer das unentgeltliche, räumlich unbeschränkte und zeitlich auf die Dauer des Schutzrechts beschränkte einfache Recht ein, das ausgewählte Werk im Rahmen der unter
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