Papers by Chihiro Shimizu
Despite the significant decrease in housing prices during the collapse of the Japanese bubble in ... more Despite the significant decrease in housing prices during the collapse of the Japanese bubble in the first half of the 1990s, housing rents hardly changed at all. Why is it that housing rents do not change? Why are housing prices and housing rents not linked? In this paper, in order to address these questions, we conducted an alternative indicators for housing services in CPI. First, we found that the annual proportion of residential units whose rent changed was no more than about 5%. This is extremely low, representing 1/20 of the figure for the U.S. and 1/6 of the figure for Germany. The underlying reason for this high degree of rigidity is the specific circumstances of the Japanese housing market, where opportunities to change rents are inherently limited due to the fact that tenant turnover is low while the duration of rental contracts is two years. Even more important, however, is the fact that rents are not changed even when opportunities to change them arise such as tenant tu...
Despite the significant decrease in housing prices during the collapse of the Japanese bubble in ... more Despite the significant decrease in housing prices during the collapse of the Japanese bubble in the first half of the 1990s, housing rents hardly changed at all. Why is it that housing rents do not change? Why are housing prices and housing rents not linked? In this paper, in order to address these questions, we conducted an alternative indicators for housing services in CPI. First, we found that the annual proportion of residential units whose rent changed was no more than about 5%. This is extremely low, representing 1/20 of the figure for the U.S. and 1/6 of the figure for Germany. The underlying reason for this high degree of rigidity is the specific circumstances of the Japanese housing market, where opportunities to change rents are inherently limited due to the fact that tenant turnover is low while the duration of rental contracts is two years. Even more important, however, is the fact that rents are not changed even when opportunities to change them arise such as tenant tu...
Review of Income and Wealth, 2019
The SNA (System of National Accounts) requires separate estimates for the land and structure comp... more The SNA (System of National Accounts) requires separate estimates for the land and structure components of a commercial property. Using transactions data for the sales of office buildings in Tokyo, a hedonic regression model (the Builder's Model) was estimated and this model generated an overall property price index as well as subindexes for the land and structure components of the office buildings. The Builder's Model was also estimated using appraisal data on office building REITs for Tokyo. These hedonic regression models also generate estimates for net depreciation rates which can be compared. Finally, the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism constructs annual official land prices for commercial properties based on appraised values. The paper compares these official land prices with the land prices generated by the hedonic regression models based on transactions data and on REIT data. The results show that the Builder's Model using transactions data can be used to estimate Tokyo office market indexes with a reasonable level of precision. The results also revealed that commercial property indexes based on appraisal and assessment prices lag behind the indexes based on transaction prices.
Review of Income and Wealth, 2016
The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial p... more The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the Balance Sheet accounts of the country for the calculation of the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry. The paper uses a variant of the builder's model that has been used to construct Residential Property Price Indexes. Geometric depreciation rates are estimated for commercial offices in Tokyo using assessment data for REITs. The problems associated with the decomposition of asset value into land and structure components are addressed. The problems associated with depreciating capital expenditures on buildings and with measuring the loss of asset value due to early retirement of the structure are also addressed.
Journal of Statistical Science and Application, 2015
The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial p... more The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the Income Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the System of National accounts. The paper suggests a variant of the capitalization of the Net Operating Income approach to the construction of property price indexes and uses the one hoss shay or light bulb model of depreciation as a model of depreciation for the structure component of a commercial property.
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015
This paper uses hedonic regression techniques to decompose the price of a house into land and str... more This paper uses hedonic regression techniques to decompose the price of a house into land and structure components using real estate sales data for Tokyo. To get sensible results, a nonlinear regression model using data that covered multiple time periods was used. Collinearity between the amounts of land and structure in each residential property leads to inaccurate estimates for the land and structure value of a property. This collinearity problem was solved by using exogenous information on the rate of growth of construction costs in Tokyo in order to get useful constant-quality subindices for the price of land and structures separately.
This paper aims to extend the existing evidence on the investment value of green buildings to int... more This paper aims to extend the existing evidence on the investment value of green buildings to international markets, specifically the residential market in Japan. Using a unique transaction database of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area and a hedonic ana-lytical framework, we find that green buildings command a small but significant premium on both the asking and transaction prices. This finding is consistent with results from other countries. As far as we are aware, this is also the first study of green buildings’ economic value based on a hedonic model incorporating buyer characteristics. However, further analysis reveals that this premium is primarily driven by wealthy households that exhibit a higher willingness-to-pay for eco-labelled condominiums, both as a total amount and as a fraction of the total sales price. We therefore conclude that eco-labels are per-ceived as a luxury good in the Japanese housing market rather than a way to save money on lower utility bills. ...
Asian Economic Journal, 2015
Is the cross-sectional distribution of house prices close to a (log)normal distribution, as is of... more Is the cross-sectional distribution of house prices close to a (log)normal distribution, as is often assumed in empirical studies on house price indexes? How does it evolve over time? How does it look like during the period of housing bubbles? To address these questions, we investigate the cross-secional distribution of house prices in the Greater Tokyo Area. Using a unique dataset containing individual listings in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine in 1986 to 2009, we find the following. First, the house price, Pit, is characterized by a distribution with much fatter tails than a lognormal distribution, and the tail part is quite close to that of a power-law or a Pareto distribution. Second, the size of a house, Si, follows an exponential distribution. These two findings about the distributions of Pit and Si imply that the the price distribution conditional on the house size, i.e., Pr(Pit | Si), follows a lognormal distribution. We confirm this by showing that size adjusted prices indeed follow a lognormal distribution, except for periods of the housing bubble in Tokyo when the price distribution remains asymmetric and skewed to the right even after controlling for the size effect.
Springer Proceedings in Complexity, 2015
International Journal of Modern Physics: Conference Series, 2012
How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the... more How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real estate bubbles is not the rapid price hike itself but a rise in price dispersion. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether developments in the dispersion in real estate prices can be used to detect bubbles in property markets as they arise, using data from Japan and the U.S. First, we show that the land price distribution in Tokyo had a power-law tail during the bubble period in the late 1980s, while it was very close to a lognormal before and after the bubble period. Second, in the U.S. data we find that the tail of the house price distribution tends to be heavier in those states which experienced a housing bubble. We also provide evidence suggesting that the power-law tail observed during bubble periods arises due to the lack of price arbitrage across regions.
Procedia Computer Science, 2015
Why was the Japanese consumer price index for rents so stable even during the period of housing b... more Why was the Japanese consumer price index for rents so stable even during the period of housing bubble in the 1980s? In addressing this question, we start from the analysis of microeconomic rigidity and then investigate its implications about aggregate price dynamics. We find that ninety percent of the units in our dataset had no change in rents per year, indicating that rent stickiness is three times as high as in the US. We also find that the probability of rent adjustment depends little on the deviation of the actual rent from its target level, suggesting that rent adjustments are not state dependent but time dependent. These two results indicate that both intensive and extensive margins of rent adjustments are very small, thus yielding a slow reponse of the CPI to aggregate shocks. We show that the CPI inflation rate would have been higher by one percentage point during the bubble period, and lower by more than one percentage point during the period of bubble bursting, if the Japanese housing rents were as flexible as in the US. JEL Classification Number : E30; R20
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2016
Journal of Economics and Statistics, Aug 1, 2010
Do indexes of house prices behave differently depending on the estimation method? If so, to what ... more Do indexes of house prices behave differently depending on the estimation method? If so, to what extent? To address these questions, we use a unique dataset that we compiled from individual listings in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. The dataset contains more than 470,000 listings of housing prices between 1986 and 2008, including the period of the housing bubble and its burst. We find that there exists a substantial discrepancy in terms of turning points between hedonic and repeat sales indexes, even though the hedonic index is adjusted for structural changes and the repeat sales index is adjusted in the way Case and Shiller suggested. Specifically, the repeat sales measure signals turning points later than the hedonic measure: for example, the hedonic measure of condominium prices bottomed out at the beginning of 2002, while the corresponding repeat sales measure exhibits a reversal only in the spring of 2004. This discrepancy cannot be fully removed even if we adjust the repeat sales index for depreciation. JEL Classification Number : C43; C81; R21; R31
Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy Official Journal of the Japan Society of Chemotherapy, Feb 1, 2009
Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria are known to be resistant to penicilli... more Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria are known to be resistant to penicillins, cephalosporins, and monobactams because of their substrate specificity, and these bacteria are sensitive only to a narrow range of antimicrobial agents. The present study was undertaken to evaluate the efficacy of carbapenems and the new quinolones against ESBL-producing Escherichia coli, using a Monte Carlo simulation based on the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) theory. The time above MIC (TAM, %) served as the PK/PD parameter for carbapenems, with the target level set at 40%. The AUC/MIC served as the PK/PD parameter for the new quinolones, with the target level set at more than 125. In the analysis of drug sensitivity, the MIC50 of all carbapenems other than imipenem was low (0.03 microg/ml), while the MIC50 of the new quinolones was higher (1-2 microg/ml). The probability of achieving the PK/PD target with carba penems after two doses at the usual dose level, as determined by the Monte Carlo simulation, was high for each of the carbapenems tested (99.0% for biapenem, 99.60% for meropenem, and 95.03% for doripenem), except for imipenem. Among the new quinolones, the highest probability of achieving the PK/PD target was obtained with pazufloxacin (42.90%). Thus, the results of the present study have revealed that carbapenems are effective at the regular dose and can be used as the first-choice antibiotics for ESBL-producing E. coli because the resistance ratios for carbapenems are low compared to those of the new quinolones.
What brought the concentration of people to certain areas? And how much are households prepared t... more What brought the concentration of people to certain areas? And how much are households prepared to pay in exchange for being part of such concentrations? Focusing on the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is one of the world's largest urban areas, this paper aggregates individual data relating to urban amenities in small areas and explores its relationship to population concentration, as well as clarifying its relationship to rent (housing service prices). It is understood from the obtained results that a concentration of urban amenities produces population concentration and also raises housing rent. In addition, it is shown that when measuring the degree of amenity concentration, it is the diversity of amenities, not simply the total number of amenities that is important. Concentration of diverse amenities enhances an area's appeal, and as a result, households will seek to reside there even if rents are high. Among the various types of amenities, it was observed that amenities such as recreational classes, educational facilities and convenience facilities such as restaurants have positive externality. On the other hand, a clear negative relationship was found between housing rent and amenities with negative externality, such as cemeteries and video arcades.
In this paper, we empirically investigate how real estate prices are affected by aging. We run re... more In this paper, we empirically investigate how real estate prices are affected by aging. We run regional panel regressions for Japan and the United States. Our regression results show that, both in Japan and the U.S., real estate prices in a region are inversely correlated with the old age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of population aged 65+ to population aged 20-64, in that region, and positively correlated with the total number of population in that region. The demographic factor had a greater impact on real estate prices in Japan than in the U.S. Based on the regression result for Japan and the population forecast made by a government agency, we estimate the demographic impact on Japanese real estate prices over the next 30 years. We find that it will be -2.4 percent per year in 2012-2040 while it was -3.7 percent per year in 1976-2010, suggesting that aging will continue to have downward pressure on land prices over the next 30 years, although the demographic impact will be slightly smaller than it was in 1976-2010 as the old age dependency ratio will not increase as much as it did before. JEL Classification Number : G12; J11
This paper investigates the nature and magnitude of distortion in land price information publicly... more This paper investigates the nature and magnitude of distortion in land price information publicly available in Japan, especially in the Published Land Price of the Japanese Government. After examining characteristics of various land price information in Japan, we construct hedonic price indexes based on both actual transaction prices and Published Land Prices, and compare them to find possible distortion in the governmental price information. We find a large and systematic discrepancy between actual transaction prices and Published Land Prices, suggesting serious problems in the governmental information system. We also consider possibility of structural change in the Japanese real estate markets, and examine its effect on price indexes.
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Papers by Chihiro Shimizu