Taking as its starting point, the ANC’s election priorities of halving poverty and unemployment, ... more Taking as its starting point, the ANC’s election priorities of halving poverty and unemployment, the paper reviews pronouncements of the ANC in conference, and in government, in an attempt to discover more precise specifications of the two goals, and what they entail. Failing to find precision anywhere, an attempt is made to discover what changes in the relevant magnitudes are required to meet the probable goals. As far as unemployment is concerned, these are shown to depend, in the first instance, on what is understood by ‘halving ’ (rate of unemployment or number unemployed; official or expanded). Once that is known, the behaviour of the three variables that determine unemployment rates and levels: the rate of growth of the potential labour force, the rate of change of the participation rate, and the rate of job creation, has to be considered. Predicting their likely course, an always difficult task, is made more difficult still by weaknesses in the statistics. Simulations suggest...
The publication by Servaas van der Berg and his colleagues at the University of Stellenbosch last... more The publication by Servaas van der Berg and his colleagues at the University of Stellenbosch last year of a set of estimates of poverty headcounts and gaps, pointed to substantial success in the battle against poverty in South Africa in the period 2000-2004, an improvement attributable mainly to massive increases in social grants. The present paper takes issue with the van der Berg et al headcount of 15.4 million in 2004, arguing that a more likely figure is in the region of 18-20 million. This difference is far too large to be ignored by policymakers. Using household survey data from Statistics South Africa (as opposed to the All Media and Products Survey data used by van der Berg et al), the paper develops a method for dealing with under-reporting by specifying limits to the size of the corrections that can be applied to income estimates without straying beyond the bounds of the plausible. The paper questions the uncritical assignment of all disability grant payouts to poverty all...
Whether the government is on course to halve poverty by 2015; if not, why not; if so, what are th... more Whether the government is on course to halve poverty by 2015; if not, why not; if so, what are the relevant details?' Citing the research done by van der Berg et al on income poverty, the President began thus: 'Let me start by saying yes, we are confident that we are on course to half (sic) poverty by 2015.' After reciting the headcount figures above, he added that: 'The study also shows that per capita real incomes of individuals comprising the poorest two population quintiles rose by more than 30 percent during 2000-2004. Our pro-poor socioeconomic policies are meeting with success.'
Commencing with an overview of current definitions of active labour market policies (ALMPS), poli... more Commencing with an overview of current definitions of active labour market policies (ALMPS), policies aimed at ‘activating’ the unemployed, and some of the economically inactive currently receiving welfare benefits, this paper glances at the history of the transition from so-called passive to active benefit regimes, then looks at which of the many ALMPs ‘work’, and in what settings. The processes by which subjects for activation are selected are examined, and brief reference is made to the techniques for evaluating ALMPs. Attention is drawn to the coercion behind the discourse of rights and responsibilities that animates the ‘workfare’ and ‘welfare-to-work’ policies of the USA and UK, respectively. The progress of the UK’s ‘welfare-to-work’ programme, especially that for young people, is examined. Possible consequences for the programme of the crisis currently devastating the world economy are considered. Attention then turns to South Africa’s largest active labour market interventi...
Introduction 2 Into the fire 4 How severe does government think poverty is in South Africa? 6 Pre... more Introduction 2 Into the fire 4 How severe does government think poverty is in South Africa? 6 Presidency says things were better under apartheid? 14 Why do researchers produce different estimates of poverty? 16 Falsifying reality 19 Chaining the ducks 22 We told you so Now look what you’ve gone and done! 23 Conclusion 30 Endnotes 32 References 39
Simulations suggest that under the most optimistic conditions, halving the official rate of unemp... more Simulations suggest that under the most optimistic conditions, halving the official rate of unemployment would require 3.7 million jobs to be created between 2004 and 2014. Halving the number of expanded unemployed under pessimistic assumptions about the growth rate of the economically active would require 11 million jobs in the same period. Unlike unemployment, poverty levels can, through the social security system, be directly affected by government. One of the goals of the United Nations Millennium Declaration is to halve absolute poverty (defined, in the absence of a national poverty line, as being below $1(US)/day). In the first place, there is no agreed poverty line. Given the margin of ignorance in the data examined, it is probably impossible to say much about poverty headcounts, rates or gaps at the poverty line chosen to denote absolute poverty. As the poverty line is raised, the number of poor stabilises at a high level (roughly 20 million). It shows little sensitivity to ...
This paper seeks an explanation for the large differences in the extent and severity of poverty p... more This paper seeks an explanation for the large differences in the extent and severity of poverty published respectively in van der Berg et al (2005: 2007a) and Meth (2006b). Headcounts in 2004 suggested by van der Berg et al (2007a) exceed by five million, those reported by (Meth, 2006b). Household survey respondents often under-report income (and expenditure). To address this, it is common (if not necessarily wise) to scale household survey income means until the grossed-up survey income totals are approximately the same as those yielded by the national accounts. The apparent reason for the differences between our respective poverty estimates lies in the poor quality of the income estimates in the surveys used by van der Berg et al as primary data source for estimating income distributions (by race). Scaling these survey estimates to make them consistent with the national accounts, it is argued, causes them to under-estimate the extent and severity of the poverty problem. As part of...
iii Abbreviations and acronyms iv Preface v Introduction 1 Government ‘admits’ defeat? 1 Internat... more iii Abbreviations and acronyms iv Preface v Introduction 1 Government ‘admits’ defeat? 1 International crisis spoils a good run 7 What chance for a halving of unemployment? 12 The calculating engine’s nuts and bolts 14 Reflections on the EPWP and CWP 28 Sidestepping the social protection issue 36 What about poverty and inequality? 49 AIDS, poverty and Kanbur’s ‘hard question’ 58 Conclusion 61 References 83
This paper consists of two parts: the first takes a critical look at the decision by Statistics S... more This paper consists of two parts: the first takes a critical look at the decision by Statistics South Africa to increase the frequency of the Labour Force Surveys (LFSs) from biannual to quarterly, while the second looks at new ways in which the information on employment and unemployment collected in the LFSs can be presented and analysed.
Because of their vital role in charting progress (or the lack thereof) in the pursuit of the pove... more Because of their vital role in charting progress (or the lack thereof) in the pursuit of the povert y reduction, statistics are of obvious importance. In South Africa, these leave much to be desired.Disagreements among academics on the severity of poverty, the result of the failure of Statistics South Africa to conduct the appropriate surveys, are the inevitable result. Far from losing money (or sleep) as a result, some in the profession resort to further research, some of it quite highly paid, to squeeze new results out of old, often unreliable data. This could have serious consequences for the poor – policy failure caused by faulty monitoring can easily damage the vulnerable. Regardless of the reliability or otherwise of their findings, it is argued in the present paper that researchers would do well to offer them in a way that minimises the possibility of their being misinterpreted and/or misrepresented, and that maximises the likelihood that the non-specialist reader will be abl...
This paper argues that anti-poverty policy in South Africa, existing and proposed, cannot succeed... more This paper argues that anti-poverty policy in South Africa, existing and proposed, cannot succeed in a politically acceptable period of time. With one shining exception, policymakers in South Africa, by virtue of their fixation with growth on the one hand, and welfare ‘dependency’ on the other, impose unnecessary constraints on government’s ability to tackle mass poverty, mass unemployment and gross inequality. The Harvard group, appointed to make recommendations for relaxing the binding constraints that prevent the country achieving its growth goals, is criticised for neglecting the duty to point out the implications of the possible failure of their proposals. AsgiSA’s compilers are criticised for the same reason. Acknowledging the need for sustained and sustainable growth for the eradication of poverty, the paper demonstrates that slow growth (3-4 per cent per annum) with redistribution, yields welfare outcomes (poverty reduction) for the poor that are superior to what 6-7 per cen...
Taking as its starting point, the ANC’s election priorities of halving poverty and unemployment, ... more Taking as its starting point, the ANC’s election priorities of halving poverty and unemployment, the paper reviews pronouncements of the ANC in conference, and in government, in an attempt to discover more precise specifications of the two goals, and what they entail. Failing to find precision anywhere, an attempt is made to discover what changes in the relevant magnitudes are required to meet the probable goals. As far as unemployment is concerned, these are shown to depend, in the first instance, on what is understood by ‘halving ’ (rate of unemployment or number unemployed; official or expanded). Once that is known, the behaviour of the three variables that determine unemployment rates and levels: the rate of growth of the potential labour force, the rate of change of the participation rate, and the rate of job creation, has to be considered. Predicting their likely course, an always difficult task, is made more difficult still by weaknesses in the statistics. Simulations suggest...
The publication by Servaas van der Berg and his colleagues at the University of Stellenbosch last... more The publication by Servaas van der Berg and his colleagues at the University of Stellenbosch last year of a set of estimates of poverty headcounts and gaps, pointed to substantial success in the battle against poverty in South Africa in the period 2000-2004, an improvement attributable mainly to massive increases in social grants. The present paper takes issue with the van der Berg et al headcount of 15.4 million in 2004, arguing that a more likely figure is in the region of 18-20 million. This difference is far too large to be ignored by policymakers. Using household survey data from Statistics South Africa (as opposed to the All Media and Products Survey data used by van der Berg et al), the paper develops a method for dealing with under-reporting by specifying limits to the size of the corrections that can be applied to income estimates without straying beyond the bounds of the plausible. The paper questions the uncritical assignment of all disability grant payouts to poverty all...
Whether the government is on course to halve poverty by 2015; if not, why not; if so, what are th... more Whether the government is on course to halve poverty by 2015; if not, why not; if so, what are the relevant details?' Citing the research done by van der Berg et al on income poverty, the President began thus: 'Let me start by saying yes, we are confident that we are on course to half (sic) poverty by 2015.' After reciting the headcount figures above, he added that: 'The study also shows that per capita real incomes of individuals comprising the poorest two population quintiles rose by more than 30 percent during 2000-2004. Our pro-poor socioeconomic policies are meeting with success.'
Commencing with an overview of current definitions of active labour market policies (ALMPS), poli... more Commencing with an overview of current definitions of active labour market policies (ALMPS), policies aimed at ‘activating’ the unemployed, and some of the economically inactive currently receiving welfare benefits, this paper glances at the history of the transition from so-called passive to active benefit regimes, then looks at which of the many ALMPs ‘work’, and in what settings. The processes by which subjects for activation are selected are examined, and brief reference is made to the techniques for evaluating ALMPs. Attention is drawn to the coercion behind the discourse of rights and responsibilities that animates the ‘workfare’ and ‘welfare-to-work’ policies of the USA and UK, respectively. The progress of the UK’s ‘welfare-to-work’ programme, especially that for young people, is examined. Possible consequences for the programme of the crisis currently devastating the world economy are considered. Attention then turns to South Africa’s largest active labour market interventi...
Introduction 2 Into the fire 4 How severe does government think poverty is in South Africa? 6 Pre... more Introduction 2 Into the fire 4 How severe does government think poverty is in South Africa? 6 Presidency says things were better under apartheid? 14 Why do researchers produce different estimates of poverty? 16 Falsifying reality 19 Chaining the ducks 22 We told you so Now look what you’ve gone and done! 23 Conclusion 30 Endnotes 32 References 39
Simulations suggest that under the most optimistic conditions, halving the official rate of unemp... more Simulations suggest that under the most optimistic conditions, halving the official rate of unemployment would require 3.7 million jobs to be created between 2004 and 2014. Halving the number of expanded unemployed under pessimistic assumptions about the growth rate of the economically active would require 11 million jobs in the same period. Unlike unemployment, poverty levels can, through the social security system, be directly affected by government. One of the goals of the United Nations Millennium Declaration is to halve absolute poverty (defined, in the absence of a national poverty line, as being below $1(US)/day). In the first place, there is no agreed poverty line. Given the margin of ignorance in the data examined, it is probably impossible to say much about poverty headcounts, rates or gaps at the poverty line chosen to denote absolute poverty. As the poverty line is raised, the number of poor stabilises at a high level (roughly 20 million). It shows little sensitivity to ...
This paper seeks an explanation for the large differences in the extent and severity of poverty p... more This paper seeks an explanation for the large differences in the extent and severity of poverty published respectively in van der Berg et al (2005: 2007a) and Meth (2006b). Headcounts in 2004 suggested by van der Berg et al (2007a) exceed by five million, those reported by (Meth, 2006b). Household survey respondents often under-report income (and expenditure). To address this, it is common (if not necessarily wise) to scale household survey income means until the grossed-up survey income totals are approximately the same as those yielded by the national accounts. The apparent reason for the differences between our respective poverty estimates lies in the poor quality of the income estimates in the surveys used by van der Berg et al as primary data source for estimating income distributions (by race). Scaling these survey estimates to make them consistent with the national accounts, it is argued, causes them to under-estimate the extent and severity of the poverty problem. As part of...
iii Abbreviations and acronyms iv Preface v Introduction 1 Government ‘admits’ defeat? 1 Internat... more iii Abbreviations and acronyms iv Preface v Introduction 1 Government ‘admits’ defeat? 1 International crisis spoils a good run 7 What chance for a halving of unemployment? 12 The calculating engine’s nuts and bolts 14 Reflections on the EPWP and CWP 28 Sidestepping the social protection issue 36 What about poverty and inequality? 49 AIDS, poverty and Kanbur’s ‘hard question’ 58 Conclusion 61 References 83
This paper consists of two parts: the first takes a critical look at the decision by Statistics S... more This paper consists of two parts: the first takes a critical look at the decision by Statistics South Africa to increase the frequency of the Labour Force Surveys (LFSs) from biannual to quarterly, while the second looks at new ways in which the information on employment and unemployment collected in the LFSs can be presented and analysed.
Because of their vital role in charting progress (or the lack thereof) in the pursuit of the pove... more Because of their vital role in charting progress (or the lack thereof) in the pursuit of the povert y reduction, statistics are of obvious importance. In South Africa, these leave much to be desired.Disagreements among academics on the severity of poverty, the result of the failure of Statistics South Africa to conduct the appropriate surveys, are the inevitable result. Far from losing money (or sleep) as a result, some in the profession resort to further research, some of it quite highly paid, to squeeze new results out of old, often unreliable data. This could have serious consequences for the poor – policy failure caused by faulty monitoring can easily damage the vulnerable. Regardless of the reliability or otherwise of their findings, it is argued in the present paper that researchers would do well to offer them in a way that minimises the possibility of their being misinterpreted and/or misrepresented, and that maximises the likelihood that the non-specialist reader will be abl...
This paper argues that anti-poverty policy in South Africa, existing and proposed, cannot succeed... more This paper argues that anti-poverty policy in South Africa, existing and proposed, cannot succeed in a politically acceptable period of time. With one shining exception, policymakers in South Africa, by virtue of their fixation with growth on the one hand, and welfare ‘dependency’ on the other, impose unnecessary constraints on government’s ability to tackle mass poverty, mass unemployment and gross inequality. The Harvard group, appointed to make recommendations for relaxing the binding constraints that prevent the country achieving its growth goals, is criticised for neglecting the duty to point out the implications of the possible failure of their proposals. AsgiSA’s compilers are criticised for the same reason. Acknowledging the need for sustained and sustainable growth for the eradication of poverty, the paper demonstrates that slow growth (3-4 per cent per annum) with redistribution, yields welfare outcomes (poverty reduction) for the poor that are superior to what 6-7 per cen...
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Papers by Charles Meth