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Carl Boe

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Sakarya University

University of Central Florida

Université du Québec en Outaouais

Kansas State University

Mimar Sinan Fine Arts University

Armando Marques-Guedes

UNL - New University of Lisbon

University of Birmingham

Andrew W Wilkins

Goldsmiths, University of London

Leslie M . Tutty

University of Calgary

Viacheslav Kuleshov

Stockholm University

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Papers by Carl Boe

Read Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database Data from the Web [R package HMDHFDplus version 1.9.13]

The short-term mortality fluctuation data series, monitoring mortality shocks across time and space

Scientific Data, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing internationa... more The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing international and national statistical monitoring systems. It is striking that obtaining timely, accurate, and comparable across countries data in order to adequately respond to unexpected epidemiological threats is very challenging. The most robust and reliable approach to quantify the mortality burden due to short-term risk factors is based on estimating weekly excess deaths. This approach is more reliable than monitoring deaths with COVID-19 diagnosis or calculating incidence or fatality rates affected by numerous problems such as testing coverage and comparability of diagnostic approaches. In response to the emerging data challenges, a new data resource on weekly mortality has been established. The Short-term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF, available at www.mortality.org) data series is the first international database providing open-access harmonized, uniform, and fully documented data on weekly ...

A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries

Nature, 2000

Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces th... more Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces that reduce mortality, and about the cost implications of ageing populations and their associated social burden. The poor understanding of the factors driving mortality decline, and the difficulty of forecasting mortality are due in part to the pronounced irregularity of annual to decadal mortality change. Here we examine mortality over five decades in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US). In every country over this period, mortality at each age has declined exponentially at a roughly constant rate. This trend places a constraint on any theory of society-driven mortality decline, and provides a basis for stochastic mortality forecasting. We find that median forecasts of life expectancy are substantially larger than in existing official forecasts. In terms of the costs of ageing, we forecast values of the dependency ratio (that is, the ratio of people over 65 to working people) in 2050 that are between 6% (UK) and 40% (Japan) higher than official forecasts.

Data Resource Profile: The Human Mortality Database (HMD)

International journal of epidemiology, Jan 23, 2015

Acknowledgment of reviewers

Demography, 2010

Decomposition analysis of Spanish life expectancy at birth

Demographic Research, 2005

Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life e... more Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life expectancy of the Spanish population during three decades, 1970-2001, in order to ascertain which age and sex groups have made the most progress in terms of increasing life expectancy. Within the theoretical context of the Health Transition, the authors provide a brief description of the Spanish mortality during the XXth century across several indexes. The study uses a decomposition technique to separate changes in Spanish life expectancy at birth (e 0) into age, sex, and time components. The most important components of change are found in the elderly, in young people, and in the evolution of sex differences in human mortality.

The Editors of Demography depend heavily on the judgment of outside reviewers in selecting manuscripts for publication. We thank our colleagues for their contribution to this process. The following persons served as referees during the period October 1, 2010, to July 31, 2011

Demography, 2011

Logo Springer. Search Menu. Search Options: ...

Center

Ann Arbor, Mar 1, 2003

Sex acts, sex partners, and sex budgets: implications for risk factor analysis and estimation of HIV transmission probabilities

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes, 1993

Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the ... more Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the acquisition of HIV, but few studies have identified the number of sex acts as a risk factor. The seeming lack of importance of the number of sex acts as a risk factor has yet to be explained. In this report we conduct an exploratory data analysis to evaluate the relationship between the number of sex acts and the number of sex partners for heterosexuals. Our results indicate that it may be most appropriate to view sexual activity within a sex budget and resource allocation framework. We use the results (a) to suggest an explanation for why the results from some of the risk factor analysis studies have identified a per partnership but not a per act risk, and (b) to assess the implications of the relationship for the estimation of heterosexual transmission probabilities for HIV.

Methodology Note on the Human Life-Table Database (HLD)

Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off ... more Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off with age. Life tables are the most ancient and important tool in demography. They are widely used for descriptive and analytical purposes in demography, public health, epidemiology, population geography, biology and many other branches of

Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations,” Working Paper

and Bryan Lincoln for their research contributions to projects on which this paper draws. We have... more and Bryan Lincoln for their research contributions to projects on which this paper draws. We have benefited from comments on an earlier draft by Dan McFadden, Jim Smith, and Peter Diamond, as well as by other conference participants. Lee’s research for this paper was funded by a grant from NIA, AG11761. Tuljapurkar’s

“Key equations in the Tuljapurkar-Lee model of the Social Security system”

Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration throu... more

Geographic Differences in Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States Compared with Other High-Income Countries

Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database

Tendencias de Mortalidad en la Población Española

Center For the Economics and Demography of Aging, May 19, 2004

# El apartado 3.2 referido a los cambios más recientes de la mortalidad española se han realizado... more

Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database

Mortality changes in the Iberian Peninsula in the last decades of the twentieth century

Population (english edition), 2008

In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was v... more In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was very large (6.5 years in favour of Spanish women and 7.2 years in favour of Spanish men). Excess mortality in Portugal was due mainly to high death rates among babies, children and adolescents. Today, the gap is much narrower, although Portuguese life expectancy (81.3 years for females and 74.9 years for males in 2005) is still around two years lower than in Spain, which ranks among European leaders. In this article, Vladimir Canudas-romo and his colleagues analyse this change by examining the impact of mortality by age and by major cause of death on the life expectancy differential between the two countries over the last fifty years. They pinpoint the areas upon which health policies should focus in order to close the gap between Portugal and its neighbour.

Évolution de la mortalité dans la péninsule Ibérique au cours de la seconde moitié du XXe siècle

Population, 2008

Aujourd’hui, les esperances de vie au Portugal (81,3 ans pour les femmes et 74,9 ans pour les hom... more Aujourd’hui, les esperances de vie au Portugal (81,3 ans pour les femmes et 74,9 ans pour les hommes en 2005) et en Espagne (respectivement 83,5 ans et 76,9 ans) presentent la particularite de figurer pour les hommes portugais parmi les plus basses d’Europe occidentale et pour les femmes espagnoles parmi les plus elevees. Cet article decrit les tendances convergentes de la mortalite dans la peninsule Iberique au cours de la seconde moitie du XXe siecle. L’esperance de vie au Portugal semble suivre la meme trajectoire que celle de l’Espagne avec plusieurs annees de retard (dix ans pour les femmes, quinze ans pour les hommes) grâce aux progres enregistres a tous les âges. Les analyses de la mortalite par âge et par cause montrent que c’est la mortalite entre 20 et 79 ans chez les hommes et au-dessus de 60 ans chez les femmes qui est responsable de la majeure partie de l’ecart d’esperance de vie subsistant entre les deux pays. Les causes de deces qui contribuent le plus a ces differences sont les maladies de l’appareil circulatoire et, pour les hommes, les traumatismes et morts violentes.

Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts

International Journal of Forecasting, 1999

This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of f... more This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of future fertility in the United States. We begin with Lee's ARMA model which leads to prediction intervals that are more realistic and informative than point-wise forecasts or traditional scenario methods. The roles of historical information and expert judgment are analyzed in terms of their effects upon prediction uncertainty. Validation experiments suggest that the model performs well in characterizing the uncertainty of the US fertility experience. We argue that the long-run average of fertility, a key assumption of the model, operates on a time scale not probed by time-series methods and we use Bayesian priors to quantify the additional prediction uncertainty that comes from making the long-run fertility assumption.

Mortality change and forecasting: how much and how little do we know?

North American …, 1998

Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial soc... more

Read Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database Data from the Web [R package HMDHFDplus version 1.9.13]

The short-term mortality fluctuation data series, monitoring mortality shocks across time and space

Scientific Data, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing internationa... more The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing international and national statistical monitoring systems. It is striking that obtaining timely, accurate, and comparable across countries data in order to adequately respond to unexpected epidemiological threats is very challenging. The most robust and reliable approach to quantify the mortality burden due to short-term risk factors is based on estimating weekly excess deaths. This approach is more reliable than monitoring deaths with COVID-19 diagnosis or calculating incidence or fatality rates affected by numerous problems such as testing coverage and comparability of diagnostic approaches. In response to the emerging data challenges, a new data resource on weekly mortality has been established. The Short-term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF, available at www.mortality.org) data series is the first international database providing open-access harmonized, uniform, and fully documented data on weekly ...

A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries

Nature, 2000

Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces th... more Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces that reduce mortality, and about the cost implications of ageing populations and their associated social burden. The poor understanding of the factors driving mortality decline, and the difficulty of forecasting mortality are due in part to the pronounced irregularity of annual to decadal mortality change. Here we examine mortality over five decades in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US). In every country over this period, mortality at each age has declined exponentially at a roughly constant rate. This trend places a constraint on any theory of society-driven mortality decline, and provides a basis for stochastic mortality forecasting. We find that median forecasts of life expectancy are substantially larger than in existing official forecasts. In terms of the costs of ageing, we forecast values of the dependency ratio (that is, the ratio of people over 65 to working people) in 2050 that are between 6% (UK) and 40% (Japan) higher than official forecasts.

Data Resource Profile: The Human Mortality Database (HMD)

International journal of epidemiology, Jan 23, 2015

Acknowledgment of reviewers

Demography, 2010

Decomposition analysis of Spanish life expectancy at birth

Demographic Research, 2005

Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life e... more Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life expectancy of the Spanish population during three decades, 1970-2001, in order to ascertain which age and sex groups have made the most progress in terms of increasing life expectancy. Within the theoretical context of the Health Transition, the authors provide a brief description of the Spanish mortality during the XXth century across several indexes. The study uses a decomposition technique to separate changes in Spanish life expectancy at birth (e 0) into age, sex, and time components. The most important components of change are found in the elderly, in young people, and in the evolution of sex differences in human mortality.

The Editors of Demography depend heavily on the judgment of outside reviewers in selecting manuscripts for publication. We thank our colleagues for their contribution to this process. The following persons served as referees during the period October 1, 2010, to July 31, 2011

Demography, 2011

Logo Springer. Search Menu. Search Options: ...

Center

Ann Arbor, Mar 1, 2003

Sex acts, sex partners, and sex budgets: implications for risk factor analysis and estimation of HIV transmission probabilities

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes, 1993

Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the ... more Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the acquisition of HIV, but few studies have identified the number of sex acts as a risk factor. The seeming lack of importance of the number of sex acts as a risk factor has yet to be explained. In this report we conduct an exploratory data analysis to evaluate the relationship between the number of sex acts and the number of sex partners for heterosexuals. Our results indicate that it may be most appropriate to view sexual activity within a sex budget and resource allocation framework. We use the results (a) to suggest an explanation for why the results from some of the risk factor analysis studies have identified a per partnership but not a per act risk, and (b) to assess the implications of the relationship for the estimation of heterosexual transmission probabilities for HIV.

Methodology Note on the Human Life-Table Database (HLD)

Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off ... more Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off with age. Life tables are the most ancient and important tool in demography. They are widely used for descriptive and analytical purposes in demography, public health, epidemiology, population geography, biology and many other branches of

Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations,” Working Paper

and Bryan Lincoln for their research contributions to projects on which this paper draws. We have... more and Bryan Lincoln for their research contributions to projects on which this paper draws. We have benefited from comments on an earlier draft by Dan McFadden, Jim Smith, and Peter Diamond, as well as by other conference participants. Lee’s research for this paper was funded by a grant from NIA, AG11761. Tuljapurkar’s

“Key equations in the Tuljapurkar-Lee model of the Social Security system”

Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration throu... more

Geographic Differences in Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States Compared with Other High-Income Countries

Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database

Tendencias de Mortalidad en la Población Española

Center For the Economics and Demography of Aging, May 19, 2004

# El apartado 3.2 referido a los cambios más recientes de la mortalidad española se han realizado... more

Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database

Mortality changes in the Iberian Peninsula in the last decades of the twentieth century

Population (english edition), 2008

In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was v... more In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was very large (6.5 years in favour of Spanish women and 7.2 years in favour of Spanish men). Excess mortality in Portugal was due mainly to high death rates among babies, children and adolescents. Today, the gap is much narrower, although Portuguese life expectancy (81.3 years for females and 74.9 years for males in 2005) is still around two years lower than in Spain, which ranks among European leaders. In this article, Vladimir Canudas-romo and his colleagues analyse this change by examining the impact of mortality by age and by major cause of death on the life expectancy differential between the two countries over the last fifty years. They pinpoint the areas upon which health policies should focus in order to close the gap between Portugal and its neighbour.

Évolution de la mortalité dans la péninsule Ibérique au cours de la seconde moitié du XXe siècle

Population, 2008

Aujourd’hui, les esperances de vie au Portugal (81,3 ans pour les femmes et 74,9 ans pour les hom... more Aujourd’hui, les esperances de vie au Portugal (81,3 ans pour les femmes et 74,9 ans pour les hommes en 2005) et en Espagne (respectivement 83,5 ans et 76,9 ans) presentent la particularite de figurer pour les hommes portugais parmi les plus basses d’Europe occidentale et pour les femmes espagnoles parmi les plus elevees. Cet article decrit les tendances convergentes de la mortalite dans la peninsule Iberique au cours de la seconde moitie du XXe siecle. L’esperance de vie au Portugal semble suivre la meme trajectoire que celle de l’Espagne avec plusieurs annees de retard (dix ans pour les femmes, quinze ans pour les hommes) grâce aux progres enregistres a tous les âges. Les analyses de la mortalite par âge et par cause montrent que c’est la mortalite entre 20 et 79 ans chez les hommes et au-dessus de 60 ans chez les femmes qui est responsable de la majeure partie de l’ecart d’esperance de vie subsistant entre les deux pays. Les causes de deces qui contribuent le plus a ces differences sont les maladies de l’appareil circulatoire et, pour les hommes, les traumatismes et morts violentes.

Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts

International Journal of Forecasting, 1999

This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of f... more This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of future fertility in the United States. We begin with Lee's ARMA model which leads to prediction intervals that are more realistic and informative than point-wise forecasts or traditional scenario methods. The roles of historical information and expert judgment are analyzed in terms of their effects upon prediction uncertainty. Validation experiments suggest that the model performs well in characterizing the uncertainty of the US fertility experience. We argue that the long-run average of fertility, a key assumption of the model, operates on a time scale not probed by time-series methods and we use Bayesian priors to quantify the additional prediction uncertainty that comes from making the long-run fertility assumption.

Mortality change and forecasting: how much and how little do we know?

North American …, 1998

Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial soc... more